MOGADISHU – Millions of Somalis are at risk of falling deeper into hunger - as below-average rainfall between October and December 2024 linked to the La Nina weather phenomenon threatens to reverse gains in food security. United Nations agencies are warning that without urgent funding for humanitarian action, the country – already pushed to the brink of famine in 2022 – could face a severe drought in 2025.

The warning from theFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP) follows the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis by technical partners which reveals that 3.6 million people (19 per cent of the population) currently experiencing crisis-levels of hunger (IPC3+) in Somalia.

This is expected to rise to 4.4 million between October and December this year when below average Deyr rains are anticipated. Additionally, 1.6 million children under the age of five are at risk of acute malnutrition until July 2025, including 403 000 likely to suffer from severe malnutrition.

“We stand before a critical point and need to raise the alarm. Without urgent action, we risk falling back into the hunger crisis that brought Somalia to the brink of Famine in recent years,” said Elkhidir Daloum, WFP Somalia Country Director. “While there has been progress, many families remain vulnerable as food prices rise and crop yields decline. Our priority must be both immediate support and building long-term resilience. WFP is increasing efforts, to protect communities before disaster strikes. These proactive steps, combined with early recovery, climate-smart solutions and social protection, are key to breaking this cycle of vulnerability.”

The IPC findings reflect global forecasts that indicate an 80 per cent probability of La Niña conditions, which are typically associated with below-average rainfall and higher temperatures, leading to drought across Somalia. Projections indicate below-normal Deyr rainfall and above-normal temperatures, which could cause severe soil moisture loss, poor crop and fodder productivity, and worsening food insecurity in vulnerable communities.

FAO Somalia Country Representative, Etienne Peterschmitt, stressed the urgency of early action given the La Niña forecast and the potential for drought. “La Niña’s impact on Somalia’s agrifood systems could be devastating, with degraded soil and water resources, disrupted planting seasons, and reduced crop yields. The loss of livestock will further threaten rural livelihoods, pushing millions deeper into hunger and poverty.  Anticipatory action is essential to mitigate these impacts and prevent a worsening food security crisis”.

“High levels of acute malnutrition among children are widespread and persistent. We are likely to see water sources depleting and malnutrition among children rising,” said UNICEF Representative Wafaa Saeed. “While the number of acutely malnourished children has reduced and more people had access to safe water, these gains are fragile, and risk being eroded.  We need to sustain provision of life-saving assistance while simultaneously scaling up investments in resilience so that communities can respond and recover positively to recurrent shocks.”

FAO, OCHA, WFP and UNICEF are deeply concerned about the grim outlook for the next three months and beyond. Amid funding gaps, unfavorable rainfall forecasts, ongoing security challenges, and rising food prices, the agencies are urgently calling for additional funding to scale up resilience and humanitarian programmes to mitigate the impacts of worsening drought conditions in Somalia. As of 24 September, the 2024 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 37 per cent funded.

Media Contacts

Masimba Nyamanhindi, FAO/Somalia: [email protected] +252770812119

Sara Cuevas Gallardo, WFP/Somalia, +252 771641746

Victor Chinyama, UNICEF Somalia: [email protected]; +252613375885