Somalia faces rising risks as below-average rainfall and high temperatures threaten food security.

Mogadishu, Somalia Multi-Stakeholder Climate Outlook Forum for Gu (March-April-May) 2025 season has released the seasonal climate outlook for the country. The forum was organized in collaboration with the Federal Government of Somalia (Department of Meteorology in the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change), Federal Member States (FMS), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Key Findings and Take Away Message of the Gu (March-May) 2025 Seasonal Outlook

• Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across most parts of Somalia, particularly in Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and inland parts of both Galguduud and Mudug regions, where the likelihood of below-average rainfall exceeds 50 percent.
• Warmer-than-average temperatures are anticipated across the country, with a greater than 60 percent probability in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland.
• Rainfall onset will vary across the country:
  • Early onset (10–17 April 2025): Western and northern parts of Gedo region.
  • Moderate onset (17–24 April 2025): Lower Juba, Southwest, and Hirshabelle States.
  • Late onset (24–30 April 2025): Mudug region and southern Nugaal.
  • Latest onset: Bari region.
  • The maximum wet spells will occur between April 20 and May 11, 2025, with coastal parts of Lower Juba and Middle Juba, and Puntland expected to experience the longest wet spells after rainfall onset.

Implications and Call for Preparedness

The anticipated below-average rainfall and above normal temperatures pose significant risks to food security, water availability, and livestock survival in Somalia. The expected extended dry periods in some regions could exacerbate drought conditions, impacting livelihoods and increasing humanitarian needs.

To mitigate the potential impacts, the Somalia Multi-Stakeholder Climate Outlook Forum urges:

1. Government and Humanitarian Agencies to enhance early warning systems, scale up drought response efforts, and support communities at risk.
2. Farmers and Livestock Keepers to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices and water conservation techniques to minimize losses.
3. Health and Disaster Management Authorities to prepare for heat-related illnesses, vector-borne disease outbreaks (such as malaria and dengue), and waterborne diseases due to extreme temperatures.
4. Development Partners and NGOs to provide timely humanitarian assistance, particularly in the most affected regions.

The Gu 2025 season is critical for Somalia’s food production and water security. Urgent actions are needed to mitigate risks and build resilience among vulnerable communities. The government, humanitarian organizations, and the public are encouraged to stay informed and take proactive measures based on the seasonal climate advisories.

For more information on Somalia Multi-Stakeholder Climate Outlook Forum, please contact:

Federal Ministry of Environment, Department of Meteorology

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +252613022648

Website: https//moecc.gov.so

FAO Somalia

Email:  [email protected]  

Phone: +252-770812119

Website: @fao.org 

X: @faosomalia

WMO- Regional Office for Eastern and Southern Africa

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +254727792701

Website: https//wmo.int

IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC)

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +254112862395

Website: https://www.icpac.net

Twitter: @icpac_igad