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The 2009 agricultural production has experienced a net cereal production of about 660 000 tonnes. This figure is 38 percent below the 2008 agricultural production of about 1.07 million tonnes. When compared to the previous 5 year average, the 2009 production is 10 percent below average. The 660 000 tonnes production is mainly from the traditional sector which make up about 90 percent of the farmers in Southern Sudan. The mechanised sector has also taken a nock, production has reduced by 10 percent from 165 000 in the 2008 agricultural season to 148 000 in the 2009 agricultural season. When compared to the previous 5 year average, production from the mechanised sector dropped by 20 percent.

ASSESSMENT MISSION HIGHLIGHTS • The cereal harvest for the northern states of the Republic of the Sudan is estimated at 3.13 million tonnes, comprising 2.34 million tonnes of sorghum, 0.44 million tonnes of pearl millet and a low forecast for a wheat harvest in April/May 2010 (only partially planted during the assessment) of 0.34 million tonnes.

Preliminary results indicate that 2009/10 agricultural production is expected to be below average.Cereal prices remain at unseasonably record high levels, and have shown stability or slight increase in December contrary to seasonal trends. Higher production costs, increase in demand (especially from urban population), plus increased storage in anticipation of further increase in prices later in the season are the main reasons for price increases. Prices are expected to increase further in the coming months. Protection of consumers from the adverse effects of increasing cereal prices remains both a marketing and social policy challenge. Some price support efforts are still required in order to maintain consumer’s incentives.

Prices continued to hover much above their historical levels, a long‐lasting trend that started in early 2008. These high level and persistent cereal prices calls for price support measures. Prices will need to be monitored in the coming months in order to help decision makers take relevant measures as prices continue to be high.

Rainfall and Vegetation still performing poorly as rainy season comes to an end… Agricultural production generally below average for most subsistent farmers... Inter-ethnic conflicts and LRA activities continue to burden communities…

Current cereal prices are substantially higher compared to the same period last year in nearly all markets; if continued, the increase in sorghum prices so early in the harvest season is particularly worrying as sorghum serves as a major source of staple food for the poor.

Generally unfavourable onset of rains and outbreaks of pests and diseases, together, may resulted in a below average cereal harvest of about 30-40% of average annual production assuming the climatic conditions continue to perform favourably.

Several factor highlight food market risks and uncertainties for urban consumers in South Sudan. First, the South Sudan’s agriculture is yet to revive appreciably from severe disruptions caused by over two decades of civil conflicts. Secondly, rural and urban areas are poorly integrated, mainly due to a virtual absence of transport and communication infrastructures, as well as due to civil insecurities.

• Poor rainfall performance delays agricultural activities in southern Sudan • Delayed yields from short season to impact on the duration of the hunger period • Poor vegetation development to affect the livestock conditions • Increased probability of normal to below normal forecast for southern half of southern Sudan

Highlights of the Food Security Situation: - Inter-Ethnic Conflict continues to threaten the food security situation - The Rainy Season has begun in most parts of southern Sudan. - Cereal prices have increased in southern Sudan.