Table of Contents

• I. CURRENT SITUATION AND SHORT-TERM MARKET OUTLOOK

  • A. PRODUCTION
  • B. CONSUMPTION
  • C. TRADE
  • D. OUTLOOK

• II. STATISTICAL ISSUES

INTRODUCTION

1. This document is divided in two parts. Part I examines the current situation and short-term market outlook for production and trade of tropical fruits, while Part II deals with statistical issues, particularly the continuing challenges associated with the gathering and dissemination of market intelligence on tropical fruits.

2. The statistical information analyzed in this document was derived from responses to a questionnaire sent to tropical fruit producing and consuming countries, supplemented by data from the FAO database, FAOSTAT. Statistics are available for individual fruit that have high trade volumes such as pineapples, mangoes, avocados and papayas, while for fruit with smaller trade volumes such as lychees, carambola, mangosteen, durian, longans etc., data are generally grouped under the category other tropical fruits. For each of the four major tropical fruits, pineapples, mangoes, avocados and papayas, supply and demand balance sheets are appended. A statistical compendium has also been compiled, and this is tabled as SG TF 98/CRS.11.

3. Delegates are requested to review the data and analysis of the current market situation and outlook, and contribute information on developments in 1997 and prospects for 1998. In addition, they are invited to evaluate the responses to the questionnaire and recommend improvements to enhance the exchange of information.

I. CURRENT SITUATION AND SHORT-TERM MARKET OUTLOOK

A. PRODUCTION

4. World production of tropical fruit in 1997 is estimated to have reached 55.8 million tonnes, most of which was absorbed domestically in the producing countries, either in fresh or processed form. Although global trade in fresh tropical fruits is estimated to be less than 5 percent of production, fruit are available all-year round in importing countries because of the different growing and harvesting cycles in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In general, each market tends to import from its closest regional supplier in view of lower transportation costs and shorter duration from harvesting to retail distribution. Hence, North American markets are typically supplied by Latin America and the Caribbean, European markets by Africa and, to a lesser extent, by Latin America and the Caribbean (mostly to take advantage of space at competitive freight rates for banana shipments to Europe) and India, while trade in the Far East is mainly intra-regional. Of the 55.8 million tonnes of tropical fruit produced in 1997, 40 percent were mangoes, 23 percent pineapples, 9 percent papayas, 4 percent avocados, and other tropical fruits (mangosteen, lychee, rambutan, durian, etc.) made up the balance of 24 percent.

5. World production of pineapples increased by nearly 3 percent in 1997 to 12.7 million tonnes. Thailand was the largest producing country accounting for 16 percent of global output, followed by the Philippines (12 percent) and Brazil (10 percent). World production of mangoes in 1997 increased slightly to 22 million tonnes. India remained the world's largest producing country, accounting for almost 50 percent of global output, followed by China (9 percent) and Mexico (6 percent). World production of avocados increased by 9 percent to 2.1 million tonnes in 1997. Mexico was the largest producer (39 percent of the global output), followed by Indonesia (10 percent) and the United States (8 percent). In 1998, a further increase in output is forecast for Mexico. Good harvests are also expected in Israel and Spain, where output should reach 80 000 tonnes and 50 000 tonnes, respectively. World production of papayas in 1997 was estimated at a similar level to 1996, around 5.0 million tonnes. Brazil was the largest producer (49 percent of the global output), followed by Indonesia (12 percent) and Nigeria (10 percent). The global production of other tropical fruits increased by almost two percent in 1997 to 13.8 million tonnes. The Philippines was the largest producing country (27 percent of the global output), followed closely by India (24 percent) and Indonesia (14 percent).

B. CONSUMPTION

6. The consumption of tropical fruits has generally increased over the last decade, as can be seen from the appended supply and demand balance sheets for individual fruits. However, the level in producing countries is difficult to ascertain as wastage and the share of production left unharvested varies from country to country and also according to the variety of fruit. For instance, a large portion of global output of mangoes is not harvested, mainly due to problems with marketing (including inadequate transport infrastructure from growing areas to market), and the highly perishable nature of the fruit.

7. Total consumption of pineapples has been increasing at an average annual rate of about 3 percent. However, data for the last two years reflect a slowing down in consumption of pineapple products mainly due to weather related reductions in availability from Thailand. For mangoes, consumer acceptance of mango-flavoured beverages has underpinned strong growth in the consumption of processed mangoes in import markets, particularly in Europe, while growth rates of fresh mango consumption remained high. The quantities of avocados and papayas utilized for processing are small, and therefore consumption is mainly as fresh fruit. For avocados, consumption has increased by about 5 percent annually over the past two years, while for papayas consumption declined by 2 percent between 1995 and 1996, due to a reduction in production.

C. TRADE

8. World trade in fresh tropical fruit in 1996, the latest year for which complete trade data are available, reached 1.8 million tonnes, an increase of 14 percent over 1995, while the volume of exports of processed products increased by only one percent to 1.4 million tonnes (product weight). The slowdown of trade in processed fruit reflected the large reduction in export availabilities of pineapple products from Thailand, the leading exporter, caused by two consecutive droughts. The export market for tropical fruit, particularly in developed countries, is a speciality market and is typically demand driven. In value terms, exports of tropical fruit (fresh and processed) in 1996 were nearly 18 percent higher than they were in 1995, rising from US$1.87 billion to US$2.20 billion, largely due to the rise in prices of pineapple products.

9. Pineapple is one of the most widely traded tropical fruits, mostly in processed form. In 1996, 1.3 million tonnes of processed products (product weight of canned and juice) were exported (75 percent of the international trade in pineapples by value). Global trade in fresh pineapples although accounting for only 25 percent of pineapple exports (fresh and processed), represented 31 percent of the total world trade in fresh tropical fruits by value. The total value of pineapple exports in 1996 (fresh and processed) reached US $1.36 billion, 17 percent more than the 1995 total.

10. Although household consumption of fresh pineapple has not grown in producing countries, due to tight supplies and growing demand by the processing sector, import demand for fresh pineapples has been expanding due to a combination of improved distribution networks through supermarkets and increasing consumer awareness. Costa Rica was the largest exporting country of fresh pineapples, closely followed by C�te d'Ivoire and the Philippines. Increased price competitiveness in export markets by producers in Asia due to the currency devaluations, has been negated by a combination of increased input prices and adverse weather.

11. Mangoes were the second most important tropical fruit traded internationally, both in terms of quantity and value. Export returns from mangoes (fresh and processed) were almost US$400 million in 1996. The volume of fresh mango exports exceeded 400 000 tonnes, or 24 percent of the tonnage of all fresh tropical fruits traded internationally. Over the past five years, exports of fresh mangoes grew at an average annual rate of 8 percent. However, between 1994 and 1996, growth was much higher with exports increasing by more than 30 percent, mainly due to growing consumer awareness in Europe and North America. Import demand for processed mango pulp (puree) and juice has also expanded as a mango flavour in fruit drinks, either in single flavoured or in multi-flavoured beverages, has become very popular. However, the bulk of the consumption of processed mango occurs in the producing countries themselves. In 1996, 807 000 tonnes of mango pulp and 136 980 tonnes of juice (product weight) were produced, while exports of pulp and juice amounted to only 45 971 tonnes and 6 752 tonnes, respectively.

12. In 1996, Mexico was the largest exporting country of fresh mangoes, accounting for nearly 40 percent of global exports. Most of its shipments were destined to North America. The Philippines and India were also significant exporting countries, together accounting for 17 percent of the world market. The main destination for the Philippines was China, Hongkong Special Administrative Region, an important re-export centre in the Far East, while exports from India were mainly for the United Kingdom and the Near East.

13. Exports of fresh avocados and papayas have both been increasing at the average rate of 10 percent annually over the past five years. In 1996, some 12 percent of avocados production was shipped, fetching US $ 248.6 million in export receipts for the countries concerned. The largest import market was the EC, with France alone accounting for 40 percent of total imports into this market. The United States was a smaller import market as consumption is supplied mainly from domestic production. The global market for fresh papayas in 1996 absorbed 120 000 tonnes valued at US$77.5 million, representing a rise of 16 percent over 1995 levels in terms of both quantity and value. A short shelf-life and current phytosanitary restrictions in several major markets constrain growth in exports. In 1996, Mexico increased its fresh fruit exports by more than 60 percent to 49 400 tonnes overtaking Malaysia as the largest exporting country, with the United States being the largest import market. The recent lifting of phytosanitary restrictions on papayas from Brazil (the largest papaya producing country in the world) by the United States may lead to greater imports from that origin.

14. Trade in other fresh tropical fruits has been increasing by almost 7 percent annually in recent years, and amounted to about 150 000 tonnes in 1996. Many of these tropical fruits are not well known outside the Far East, where the bulk is consumed locally. In North America and Europe, demand was initially driven by ethnic preferences, but these fruits have been slowly gaining market recognition and demand is increasing. A market success story in this category is lychee. With production concentrated in the Far East, lychees can now be found in supermarkets all over the world in fresh, canned and juiced forms. In 1996, Malaysia was the largest exporting country of this group of other fresh tropical fruits, increasing exports by almost 70 percent to 69 000 tonnes, with the majority of trade being in the Far East region.

D. OUTLOOK

15. Following the currency devaluations in Asia, imports of temperate fruits into this region, which have been growing rapidly, are expected to decline in view of their relatively high elasticities of price and income. By contrast, trade of tropical fruits within Asia should continue to expand. The region is also expected to boost its exports of most tropical fruits, mainly to European and North American markets, which could negatively affect exports from other regions. The decline in freight rates, estimated at about 20 percent by the beginning of 1998 compared to a year earlier, should also contribute to the region's competitiveness. Globally, the consumption of tropical fruits is expected to increase, but as competition among exporters intensifies, prices could come under pressure. A notable exception to this tendency would be pineapples as adverse weather and higher input costs are expected to reduce the crop in Thailand, the world's largest producer of the fruit. Increases elsewhere (C�te d'Ivoire, Brazil and Costa Rica) should only partially offset this decline. For mangoes, buoyant demand in major markets should help maintain favourable prices.

16. Avocado prices are expected to weaken due to bumper crops in major exporting countries (Mexico, Israel and South Africa) and similarly for papayas, larger shipments, particularly from Brazil, could depress prices.

II. STATISTICAL ISSUES

17. The International Consultation on Tropical Fruits which was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in July 1996, emphasized the difficulties which existed in obtaining production and trade statistics for these fruits and agreed that there was a need for the systematic collection and dissemination of information to facilitate the monitoring of market developments and to enhance market transparency. The major recommendations were that:

• basic information requirements include: areas (planted and harvested), yields, production and grower prices; f.o.b. prices, quantities and values of exports and imports by origin and destination; import, wholesale and retail prices; and tariffs;
• FAO should build upon its existing information system to develop a cost-effective means for compiling statistics on tropical fruits;
• an annual questionnaire should be issued to collect relevant information, the general format of which was agreed by the Consultation.

18. In August 1997 the questionnaire¹, was sent to 86 producing, exporting, and consuming countries. Of these, 35 countries accounting for an estimated 47 percent of world production, 77 percent of world exports, and 72 percent of global imports of all tropical fruits responded. An analysis of the response is appended as Table 5.

19. The response rate was very encouraging, particularly as it covered the majority of tropical fruit trading countries. However, in analysing the responses it became evident that the questionnaire required refinement. Countries that completed the section on production accounted for only 19 percent of world production. The other responding countries, accounting for 28 percent of production did not complete this section. Responses to the trade sections were more complete, but on pricing only 2 percent of the respondents give any data and none responded in full.

20. With regard to specific components of the questionnaire, on production, some major producing countries did not respond, and therefore it is important that their response be included in future. In addition, because a large proportion of production is not commonly cultivated, perhaps an updating from recent agricultural censuses would be helpful to obtain an overview of total availabilities of fruit. As for prices, such information at the grower, wholesale and retail levels provides a valuable basis for assessing the market situation. Producer, export and import prices can only be obtained from Sub-Group members. Wholesale prices have been assembled from market reports, such as the New York wholesale market reports or the International Trade Centre's Market News Service's market reports. This information has been included in document CCP: SGTF 98/3 concerning market prospects in selected countries. However, considerable data validity was required before these price data were in a usable form, while sources for retail prices are almost non-existent.

21. Another major statistical problem for tropical fruit is the general absence of data for the group of other tropical fruits (excluding pineapples, mangoes, avocados and papayas) in a usable, disaggregated form. For example, for production and trade, mangosteen is listed with mangoes in some countries, carambola, durian, guava, longan, passion fruit and rambutan are listed as: fruit, tropical (fresh) nes; while lychees are listed under: fruit, fresh nes. It was hoped that the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) would have assisted in the compilation of disaggregated data and the avoidance of problems in recognizing the same product from one country to another, particularly if different names are used for a given fruit. Unfortunately, very few countries responded in greater detail than the standard 6 digit code.

22. In the light of the above observations, the Sub-Group is invited to suggest improvements in the format of the questionnaire and on how to increase member countries' responses, particularly in order to develop representative and timely price series.

Table 1 - Pineapple Supply and Demand for Selected Countries (fresh fruit equivalents)

1_/ Imbalance between imports and exports is accounted for by waste and unrecorded trade
2_/ Excluding juice
3_/ Including juice
4_/ Excluding intra-EC trade

Table 2 - Mango Supply and Demand for Selected Countries (fresh fruit equivalents)

1_/ Imbalance between imports and exports is accounted for by waste and unrecorded trade
2_/ Excluding intra-EC trade
3_/ Estimate

Table 3 - Avocado, fresh or dried - Supply and Demand for Selected Countries

1_/ Imbalance between imports and exports is accounted for by waste and unrecorded trade
2_/ Excluding intra-EC trade

Table 4 - Papaya, fresh Supply and Demand for Selected Countries

1_/ Imbalance between imports and exports is accounted for by waste and unrecorded trade
2_/ Excluding intra-EC trade

Table 5

1 A sample copy of the questionaire is inclued as SG TF 98/CRS.12 for easy reference.