Comment
TRENDS IN MILK PRODUCTION
World milk production has declined from 526.5 million tonnes in 1991 to an estimated 507.7 million tonnes in 1993. Over the last three years, there has been a significant decline in milk production in eastern Europe and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Western Europe has also shown a decline, while North America, Oceania and Japan have registered small increases over the same period. Asia has increased its milk production at a greater rate than Latin America and these two regions account for 93.3 percent of the milk produced in developing countries. In Africa, milk production has declined from 12.1 million tonnes in 1991 to an estimated 11.0 million tonnes in 1993. Overall, milk production in developing countries has gradually increased and in 1993 these regions were expected to account for 33.1 percent of the world total.
TRADE IN DAIRY PRODUCTS
Domestic milk production in the Northern Hemisphere has consistently exceeded demand. Surplus disposal arrangements have included heavily subsidized schemes for school milk and special groups, livestock feeding and exports, as well as food aid. Three-quarters of the world's exports in dairy products were heavily subsidized in the 1980s. The total trade in dairy products on the world market excluding transactions within the European Economic Community (EEC) accounts for less than 6 percent of total production. Developing countries account for the majority of dairy imports, and food aid has been a significant part of imports in some countries. Food-aid shipments of dairy products have shown a considerable decrease from the yearly average of 445000 tonnes between 1984 and 1986 to 131000 tonnes in 1990. The drop in food aid reflects a downward trend in stocks of butter and skim milk powder.
Another consequence of diminishing stocks of skim milk powder is increased export prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder in particular. The present increases are expected to be sustained since the containment programmes in the EEC and the United States are likely to control production in those two regions, which account for more than two-thirds of world trade in dairy products.
These price changes have important implications for dairy development in many developing countries since they present conditions under which local milk production can compete with imported products. In the past, ample availability of relatively cheap products in international markets supported policies aimed at low consumer prices in many developing countries. The present high prices, which are expected to continue, will put additional financial strain on those developing countries that traditionally import dairy products, causing a drop in the availability of milk products for vulnerable groups.
On the positive side, it does create an unprecedented opportunity for dairy development, and self-sufficiency ratios are expected to improve in most developing countries. Despite projected increases in milk production in developing countries, however, imports are expected to continue at a slightly elevated level. Many donor agencies have assigned high priority to dairy development and FAO has been very active in this area for over two decades.
DAIRY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME ELEMENTS
FAO advocates integrated dairy development programmes that operate within national dairy policy frameworks to assist in the training and development aspects of the dairy sector. In this way, dairying can be a valuable instrument in accelerating integrated rural development and social change. The principal elements of the programme are:
· promotion of dairy development policies that focus on smallholder production systems with due emphasis on prices and imports;· assistance to farmers' organizations to enhance milk producers' participation in all aspects of dairying for the improvement of milk collection, processing and marketing systems;
· establishment of dairy training activities and the dissemination and exchange of information;
· provision of an international framework for the coordination of multilateral and bilateral efforts;
· technical cooperation among developing countries;
· promotion of effective use of food aid in cooperation with the World Food Programme (WFP).
Training activities also provide a very useful means of exchanging information and experiences. The FAO regional dairy development and training teams set up under the FAO/DANIDA (Danish International Development Agency) Dairy Programme facilitated the exchange of information on research and training between local institutions and farming organizations throughout the regions and provided trained personnel to promote dairy development activities, such as the information-exchange networks developed in Africa and Asia.
In addition to using Regular Programme and Technical Cooperation Programme resources, FAO cooperates with donor agencies, the Danish, Dutch and Finnish governments, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank and WFP to encourage dairying in developing countries. The programme is constantly reviewed, and through exchange and debate policies and strategies evolve to meet the changing needs of the industry in these countries. Meetings organized by FAO are important to this process, facilitating the participation of dairy development policy-makers from different parts of the developing world.
The FAO workshop organized in Harare, Zimbabwe, in July 1993 - Dairy Development in Africa and Asia: Sharing of Experiences - brought together 57 specialists in different aspects of dairying from 17 countries and five different development agencies. Selected papers from the proceedings are featured in this issue to highlight the important recommendations of the workshop.
An integrated approach linking all aspects of the food chain was strongly endorsed. Papers on India and Uganda stress the importance of marketing and the coordination of inputs. The establishment of a marketing infrastructure to link rural producers with urban markets stimulated significant growth in milk supply and farmer income. The coordination of inputs from different sources such as UNDP, WFP, the World Bank and donor agencies was an important element in the success of the programmes in these two countries. Small producers' cooperatives are synonymous with dairying in many parts of the world, and the role of dairy cooperatives in Asia is described in a paper from the FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. Gender issues are addressed in a paper that is based on an FAO-sponsored study on the role of women in dairy development. A report on a very successful FAO/UNDP dairy development project with a group of women in the Niger demonstrates the importance of appropriate technology in gaining access to markets.
FUTURE TRENDS
Dairy development programmes will continue to promote the integrated approach and stress its potential contribution to rural development. Work must increase in policy advice, and project implementation and technology development should continue with more emphasis on solving problems of supplying the rapidly growing urban demand for livestock products. Cities of more than 1 million inhabitants will account for 60 percent of the world's population by the year 2025. Meeting the food demands of these people requires a significant increase in efficiency in all aspects of agricultural production. FAO will assist governments in elaborating appropriate strategies to meet the challenge of creating better links between rural producers and distant urban markets.
J.A. Phelan
The author is Chief, Meat and Dairy Service, Animal Production and
Health Division, FAO, Home, Italy
