Statistical basis and sources
Projections of future wood requirements
Economic and demographic framework
The present study is concerned with the supply of and demand for wood and its products. The other functions and products of the forest are considered only to the extent that they have a bearing upon the supply of wood. The forest products recognized are those reported upon and defined in the FAO Yearbook of forest products statistics. At the primary stage of production the roundwood categories recognized are coniferous and broadleaved sawlogs, veneer logs and logs for sleepers; pulpwood and pitprops; other industrial wood¹ and fuelwood.² The processed wood products considered in the study are: sawn softwood (coniferous sawnwood), sawn hardwood (broadleaved sawnwood), sleepers, plywood,³ veneers, fibreboard,4 particle board,5 wood pulp, paper and paperboard.
¹ Poles, piling and posts. " Roundwood " refers to other industria wood and pitprops. - ² Including wood for charcoal. - ³ Including blockboard. - 4 Including compressed and noncompressed fibreboard. - 5 Excluding flaxboard.
The forest industry sector covered by the study is therefore restricted to the industries producing these products. (With the exception of the manufacture of paper and paperboard, which is often physically integrated with pulp manufacture, these are the industries which draw raw material directly from the forest. Those industries, such as the manufacture of furniture, which process wood further, are excluded unless stated otherwise.)
To facilitate the presentation of data and the subsequent analysis, the world has been divided into regions and subregions. The subregions have been designed to be as far as possible groupings of countries with common characteristics as regards wood use and forest and forest industries endowment, and do not imply any other relationship between the countries within them. The regions and subregions recognized here are as follows:
EUROPE
Northern Europe
Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden
United Kingdom and Ireland
United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland
European Economic Community (EEC)
Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, Netherlands
Southern Europe
Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey
Central Europe
Austria, Switzerland, Yugoslavia
Eastern Europe
Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Eastern Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania
U.S.S.R.
NORTH AMERICA
Canada:
United States of America
LATIN AMERICA
Mexico
Central America
British Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama
Caribbean Islands
Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, other islands
Northern South America
British Guiana, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Surinam, Venezuela
Brazil
Southwest South America
Bolivia, Chile, Peru
Southeast South America
Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay
AFRICA
Northern Africa
Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, United Arab Republic
Western Africa
Angola, Cameroun, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Dem. Rep. of), Dahomey, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Portuguese Guinea, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spanish Equatorial Region, Togo, Upper Volta
Eastern Africa
Burundi, Ethiopia, French Somaliland, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Reunion, Rwanda, Somalia, Southern Rhodesia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia
Southern Africa
Basutoland, Bechuanaland, South Africa, South West Africa, Swaziland
NEAR EAST
Mediterranean Basin
Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria
Southwest Asia
Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq
Arabian Peninsula
Bahrein, Kuwait, Quatar, Muscat and Oman, Saudi Arabia, Federation of South Arabia, Trucial States, Yemen
FAR EAST
Continental southeast Asia
Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia (Malaya), Singapore Thailand, Republic of Viet-Nam
Insular southeast Asia
Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak), Brunei, Indonesia, Papua and New Guinea (Australian administration), Philippines
South Asia
Bhutan, Ceylon, India, Nepal, Pakistan
Japan
East Asia (less Japan)
China (Taiwan), Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Ryukyu Islands
PACIFIC REGION
Australia, New Zealand, British Solomon Islands Fiji, other islands
CHINA (MAINLAND)
In addition the following groupings have been used from time to time:
Western Europe, referring to Europe excluding the eastern Europe subregion;
Northwestern Europe, referring to the United Kingdom and Ireland and the EEC subregion;
Asia, referring to the Near East, Far East and China (Mainland);
Asia-Pacific, referring to Asia and the Pacific region.
The term " developing countries " refers to the countries in Africa (except South Africa), Latin America and Asia (less Japan), as contrasted with the countries in the rest of the world, which are termed " developed countries "
A distinction has also sometimes been made between countries with market economies and countries with centrally-planned economies.
The basic historical data on production and trade of wood products and on the forest resource are those reported to FAO for publication in the FAO Yearbook of forest products statistics, and reported in revised form in the FAO World forest products statistics, a ten-year summary 1954-1963 and in the FAO World forest inventory 1963. Any differences between the data presented here and in the above publications are due to revisions to the latter made subsequent to the completion of this present study.
The recorded data for 1960-62 have been adjusted where there has been evidence of unrecorded supplies and where additional data on forest resources have been available, or where more recent or detailed information indicated that the recorded data were in error. As it was not possible to extend these corrections back beyond 1960-62, the analysis of past trends is based on the recorded series. The distinction between the two sets of data for 1960-62 is maintained by referring to them throughout as respectively " recorded " and " estimated total " production, imports, exports or consumption.6
6 Consumption has usually been derived as the sum of production plus imports minus exports.
Much additional information has been drawn from the six regional studies on wood resources and requirements listed below:
European timber trends and prospects: a new appraisal 1950-1975. FAO/ECE, New York, 1964.Timber trends and prospects in Canada. Department of Forestry of Canada, 1965 (review draft).
Timber trends in the United States. Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Resource Report No. 17, Washington, D. C. 1965.
Latin American timber trends and prospects, FAO/ECLA, New York, 1963.
Timber trends and prospects in Africa, FAO/ECA, Rome, 1965 (review draft).
Timber trends and prospects in the Asia-Pacific region, FAO/ECAFE, Geneva, 1961.7
7 And the partial revision of this study: " A reappraisal of regional timber trends and prospects " In the Report of the Sixth Session of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission, FAO, 1962.
These studies have in turn been revised, updated and supplemented where necessary on the basis of recent published country data, national reports to the FAO Regional Forestry Commissions and, in the case of the Latin American and Asia-Pacific Regions, data submitted by country authorities in response to a special inquiry by FAO to elicit up-to-date information for this present study. Further basic data on countries and regions have been obtained from the following sources:
Die Waldwirtschaft und Holzindustrie der Sowjetunion. Erwin Buchholz, München, 1961.Forestry in Communist China (forthcoming). S. D. Richardson.
Forestry in Japan. Forestry Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 1960 and 1965.
A world geography of forest resources. American Geographical Society, New York, 1956.
Fast-growing tree species for industrial plantations in the developing countries. Report for the Advisory Committee on the Application of Science and Technology to Development, 1965.
Finally, use has been made of the following sector studies:
Reports presented at the FAO/ECE Symposium on the Economic Aspects of, and Productivity in, the Sawmilling Industry, Geneva, 1965.
Plywood and other wood-based panels. Technical papers submitted to the International Consultation on Plywood and other Wood-Based Panel Products, Rome, 1963. FAO 1965.Pulp and paper prospects in western Europe. FAO Munich, 1963.
El papel y la celulosa en América latina: situación actual y tendencias futuras de su demanda, producción e intercambio. FAO/ECLA, Mexico City, 1965.
The dissolving pulp industry in Latin America: present situation and future prospects. FAO/EPTA, Santiago, 1965.
Proceedings of the Conference on Pulp and Paper Development in Africa and Near Fast. ECA/BTAO/FAO, Cairo, 1965.
Proceedings of the Conference on Pulp and Paper Development in Asia and the Far East. FAO/ECAFE, Bangkok, 1962.
Wood pulp and paper capacities 1960-68, FAO survey 1965. FAO/ACPP 1965.
Reports presented at the Special Meeting on the Utilization of Small-sized Wood. FAO/ECE, Geneva, 1961.
Except in the final chapter, were aggregated and compared with one another in terms of the quantities of wood raw material required to manufacture them. Product volumes were converted into this measure using the standard factors of " roundwood equivalents " published in the FAO Yearbook of forest products statistics. In arriving at the figures shown in the final chapter, adjustments were made in order to approximate more closely the quantities of roundwood actually required for the manufacture of the products consumed. The equivalent volumes of wood raw material were reduced, where appropriate, to take into account the use of nonwood raw materials. Allowance was also made for the variation in transformation ratios from region to region and over time. Finally, estimates were made of the present and future use of wood residues. The sources for these adjustments were the regional timber trends studies, the sector studies and the national reports listed above.
The projections of future requirements presented in this study have been framed around forward estimates of population, income and price. For most regions they are based upon the projections contained in the regional timber trends studies listed above. These have been revised and updated to take account of the following:
(a) better historical data now available on production, trade, and consumption of wood products, in particular for the Asia-Pacific region;(b) revised population projections for the Latin America western Africa and Asia-Pacific regions, and revised projections of growth in income per caput for the latter region;
(c) new or revised data relating to the determinants of consumption of wood products. The new data on relationships in the wood-based panel sector were used as a basis for revising projections of demand for these products in the Latin America and Asia-Pacific regions. Projections of paper and paperboard requirements in Latin America were also revised to take account of newly derived consumption-income relationships.
For Japan and the Pacific subregion, revisions were made in order to directly incorporate new forward estimates of wood production requirements which were provided by the countries concerned themselves. Forward estimates of requirements in 1975 in the U.S.S.R. have been based upon published data related to plans for the forest sector for the period to 1970. (In consequence, it. should be noted that the 1975 estimates in the present study are those of the FAO Secretariat and not those of the U.S.S.R. authorities.) For China (Mainland) it was possible to do no more than make very rough estimates of what increased production possibilities might amount to in 1975. For the Near East projections were prepared, on a subregional basis, by the FAO Secretariat.
Use of a number of different base studies means that no single methodology runs through the whole of the study. However, underlying the projections for most subregions are two major assumptions:
1. The principal determinants of consumption in 1975 will be (a) population; (b) income per caput; and (c) prices of wood products relative to prices of their nearest substitutes. 88 It will be noted that no supply shifting factors have been included among the principal determinants of consumption. This simplification has been necessary because little is yet available in the way of measures of quantitative effects on supply of change in these factors.2. The complex interrelations between these three variables and quantity consumed will remain unchanged until 1975, producing the same apparent relationship between consumption of wood products and income per caput and population as have been observed for the base period.
Furthermore, the projections of requirements will materialize only if the assumptions with respect to the future levels of population, income per caput and relative price are fulfilled.
Regarding prices, it is assumed that the relationship between prices of wood products and prices of their nearest substitutes which obtained during the base period will be continued. These relative prices tended in most oases to be moving up or down during that period and, as has been pointed out above, it is further assumed that the continued effects of such price changes will be satisfactorily explained by the apparent relationship between consumption and income per caput and population that existed during the base period.
As a result of this simplifying set of assumptions, the principal determinants of change in consumption of wood products underlying most of the projections in the study are change in population and change in income per caput
The historical data on populations are in general drawn from the United Nations demographic yearbook. The base-year data on incomes are, for the countries with market economies, the estimates of gross domestic product at factor cost in 1961 and 1962 published in the United Nations Yearbook of national accounts statistics, 1963 (conversion to U.S. dollars using parity rates). The historical data referring to past growth in GDP are those published in the United Nations World economic survey, 1963, which were based upon the data in the United Nations source referred to above. The measures of past growth in product for the centrally-planned economy countries are those developed in the course of the preparation of the FAO/ECE timber trends study for Europe, in which the gross national product of all countries in Europe and the U.S.S.R. were expressed in comparable terms.
Estimates of future growth of populations have been based on a recent United Nations appraisal of population prospects in each country of the world.9 The appraisal presents three alternative projections representing the range of likely developments, given the pattern and structure of the present population. For this study the " medium " level projection has been accepted, and the projections used in the basic regional trends studies were revised accordingly (see above).
9 Provisional report on world population prospects as assessed in 1963, United Nations, 1964.
There are no worldwide projections of growth in income comparable to those for population: projections must necessarily be based on performance in the recent past, and plans, targets and objectives for the future.
For North America the assumptions of the economic growth to 1975 were those provided by the countries concerned. For Europe the assumptions are those contained in the FAO/ECE timber trends study for the region. For the countries of western Europe the rates of growth assumed are designed to meet the suggestion of the Ministerial Council of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that their member countries, as a group, should aim at an increase of 50 percent in their gross national product 1960 and 1970.10 For the countries of eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. the assumptions are based upon published data about national plans. For Japan the rate of growth in product per caput has similarly been established by the FAO Secretariat on the basis of published national plan data. For the developing countries the rates assumed are designed to conform to the objective for each developing country during the present Development Decade of " a minimum annual rate of growth of aggregate national income of 5 percent at the end of the decade " set by the United Nations General Assembly [Resolution 1710 (XVI) of the United Nations General Assembly].
10 Policies for economic growth. A report to the Economic Policy Committee by Working Party No. 2 on Policies for the Promotion of Economic Growth. OECD, Paris, 1962. The rates of growth for individual countries were estimated by the FAO Secretariat, within this framework, and using such national data as were available. These rates were then extended unchanged to 1975. (See European timber trends and prospects: a new appraisal 1950 -1975. p 7.)
To conform with the objective it was necessary to replace the rate of growth used in the FAO timber trends study for the Asia-Pacific region, which was prepared before the commencement of the Development Decade, with a higher rate of growth in product per caput.
For certain countries the estimates of future wood requirements are drawn directly from data provided by the country authorities about the future evolution of the wood sector. In some oases the assumptions as to future economic growth underlying these forward estimates are not known to the FAO secretariat.
