One of the major objectives of ETTS V is to give projections for demand, supply and trade of forest products in European countries. It is fundamental in itself to get information of likely future trends for the development of demand, supply and trade of forest industry products but it is equally important to have this work as a reference tool for analysis of the balance between industrial requirements on the forest rescource and forecasts of harvesting. This part of the work is called consistency analysis and it is one of the major objectives of the forecasting to bring the two concepts in reasonable balance with each other.
The aim of this paper is to present the approach applied in making projections of demand, supply and trade of forest industry products in ETTS V and to present the results obtained from the base scenario. The projections are based on historical observations and estimated coefficients obtained from econometric analyses and assumed future growth of GDP in the countries analysed. The outline of the model approach and model estimates are given in working paper no 2.
The countries in Europe are subject to different analysis and projections. The country classification and the level of analysis is given in Table 1.
Table 1--Country groupings.
‘Major countries’ fully analyzed (fully specified demand, supply and trade models):
| Germany | Finland | Italy | UK |
| France | Sweden | Spain | Norway |
| Austria |
‘Minor countries’ where only single demand time-series cross section models are applied:
| Portugal | Netherlands | Turkey | Greece | |
| Switzerland | Denmark | Malta | Cyprus | |
| Ireland | Belgium/Lux | Iceland | Israel |
Transition economies to be treated non-analytically are former east bloc countries1:
| Bulgaria | Hungary | Romania | Poland |
| Albania | Czech rep | Slovakia | Macedonia |
| Slovenia | Croatia | Serbia | Bosnia |
| Estonia | Lithuania | Latvia | etc. |
The transition economies projections are obtained from scenario analyses.
Projections are given in Appendix 2 for the ‘major countries’, for the ‘minor countries’ (except for Malta, Cyprus, Iceland and Israel) while the projections for ‘transition economies’ are not presented in this paper.
The forest products considered in demand, supply and trade modelling is given in Table 2.
| Sawnwood | ||
| Coniferous | ||
| Non-coniferous | ||
| Wood-based panels | ||
| Plywood | ||
| Particleboard | ||
| Fiberboard | ||
| Pulp and paper | ||
| Pulp | ||
| Recycled paper | ||
| Wood pulp | ||
| Paper | ||
| Newsprint | ||
| Printing and writing paper | ||
| Other paper and board | ||
1 With the exception of the Baltic states countries in former USSR are not included in the study.
Attempts were made to model demand, supply and trade for subgroups of other paper, viz. household & sanitary paper, wrapping & packaging paper and paper n e s. The data quality, however, was too low for such analyses to be undertaken. This was most obvious for the Nordic countries.
