This study is based on information provided by 31 countries. Countries were invited to give their own forestry forecasts and the secretariat is deeply indebted to the majority of countries who took great trouble to prepare sets of detailed and consistent figures, based on an intimate knowledge of their countries' forestry situation and plans. The estimates of the secretariat were based on growth and felling figures which were presented in forest resource assessment 1990.
The approach chosen, in accordance with the recommendations of the ‘Workshop on roundwood supply forecasting’ held at Jönköping (Sweden) March 1990, was to ask national correspondents to provide base scenarios for the forest resource and wood supply in their country. That base scenario was supposed to be so called “neutral scenario” assuming constant real prices. All countries were further asked to make another scenario assuming that there will be a rising trend in roundwood prices. Only a small number of countries were able to produce the latter scenario, and there was no other possibility than to leave out the latter scenario from further analysis.
The scenarios on development of forest resources, growth and fellings are based on the following relationship of these variables: Growing stock at the beginning of a given period plus net annual increment minus fellings during the period equals the growing stock at the beginning of the next period.
Secretariat estimates were done for some countries by using data from recent ECE and FAO publications. The model that was used for forecasting was very simple. The relationship between fellings and net annual increment will determine how the volume of growing stock will change over time. Lacking much of the detailed knowledge of the forestry situation available within the countries concerned, it had to follow a somewhat mechanical approach. It was assumed that net annual increment, fellings and forest area would remain constant. Naturally, these will be replaced by nationally prepared scenarios if possible. The following equation was used in formulating the forecast:
GS1 + [(NAI1 + NAI2] × t/2] - [(F1 + F2) × t/2] = GS2
where GS1 and GS2 are the growing stock volumes at the beginning and end respectively of the period of t years. NAI1 and NAI2 are the net annual increment volumes at the beginning and end of period of t years. F1 and F2 are felling volumes at the beginning and end of period of t years. This equation takes as a basic assumption that the average of the NAI at the beginning and end of the period covered accurately reflects the annual average for the period as a whole; and the same assumption for fellings. The equation makes possible the compilation of a series of forestry forecasts which are consistent with each other
Since a major part of removals takes place on exploitable closed forest and the quality of data available is
generally the best for this part of the forest area, the forecasts concern this category. In a supplementary
question in the inquiry, countries were also asked for removals other than from exploitable closed forest.
This allowed forecasts to be built up of total wood removals.
In addition to forecasts of growing stock, net annual increment and fellings on exploitable forest, countries
also provided figures for area, harvesting losses, removals over and underbark and the proportion of
sawlogs and veneer logs in total removals.
All the countries were asked to indicate the methods used to obtain the data for scenarios. For instance whether they used the same methodology for all parts of the forest and whether different methods were applied e.g. for state and private forests.
Under normal natural conditions, forest fires, windthrows, fungus and insect infestations often destroy large forest areas, but they are impossible to forecast and thus they were not taken into account when scenarios were made.
It is very important that the quantitative forecasts provided are accompanied by explicit descriptions of the assumptions underlying them. All the countries were asked to describe how the scenarios concerning the forest resources and roundwood supply are influenced by a wide range of factors:
The countries were asked to indicate whether any significant changes are expected from the present situation and if so, to attempt to quantify the extent of change, and explain how this change might have affected the forecast. Set-up below is synthesis of these assumptions made by correspondents.
In Europe agricultural production is on a high level and fundamental changes are expected to occur to agricultural policies. For many reasons several hundreds thousands hectares of arable land are becoming surplus arable land even in relatively small European countries.
In Europe, afforestation is seen as one of the most important ways to an alternative use of excess arable land and the activity is often supported by government subsidies. Nearly in every country at least some agricultural land is expected to be shifted into forests due to changes in agricultural policy. How attainable these afforestation goals are and are they going to have any significant effects on the timber production were in most cases too difficult questions to countries to give quantitative answers.
In some countries it was assumed that the afforestation of agriculture land and the reservation of forests during next decades will more or less balance each other and no adjustment of growing stock and increment were made (e.g. Norway, Sweden).
Environmental policies and the use of forest land for other purposes will have some effects on the forest area and forest management, that was presented and pointed out in every reply. The environmental policies will not have any major effect on the timber harvested on country level, although some local forests will be transferred into nature conservation areas. Cutting restrictions are not going to play any significant role.
The effects of acid rain are visible in the forests, although many countries are not yet severely affected. There is no quantitative data on the effects of airborne pollutants or climate change. The change in forest ownership structure will not have any significant influence on the forest resources. However in all the countries in transition the ownership structure is changing quite rapidly, so it's presently difficult to foresee all the coming consequences.
It thus appears that future changes in the European forest resource, and especially the level of removals, are not primarily influenced by developments in the roundwood markets, or even by the international competitiveness of the country concerned (although this may well set an upper limit on prices), rather by the structure of forest inventory and by the forest policy, i.e.:
