In following country profiles the most important assumptions underlying scenarios as described by correspondents are presented. These scenarios were based on forest resource assessment data, which is related to year 1990 (later FRA1990). The country data are given in detail in the annex tables.
ALBANIA
The secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. Mountain forests are consisting of mostly non- coniferous trees. Fuelwood consumption plays an important role in Albania. The statistical coverage is not reliable enough for detailed modelling. Forest plantation work is starting.
AUSTRIA
The Austrian scenario is based on econometric models for different owner groups. That model work results in a basis to adjust roundwood supply forecasts, actual forest area and growing stock figures to meet consistency requirements. Forest policy is regulative because of the public interest in forests beyond the timber production. Forest policy has not changed very much in the past and is assumed to remain the same in future. Some agricultural land may be shifted into forests.
There is no market for forest land, which means that the ownership structure has been stable and will most likely stay stable over time. Forests are mostly privately owned (about 80%). For the time being, there are no signs that forest damage has a direct impact on increment. The base scenario is expecting higher removals for the same periods than ETTS IV forecast.
BELGIUM
The secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. This scenario has been constructed by Belgian officials. The scenario does not expect any great changes in the level of removals and as a consequence of that the growing stock is increasing in the future.
BULGARIA
The forecast is based on current forest policy, and on present felling rate and yield and age structure of forests. Fellings in the past has been less than expected. Change of ownership is under way and new forestry laws are being written. There is a tendency to reforest areas by using the original species: oak, beech etc. The net annual increment and fellings data are based on the forest land area of 3222 000 ha, and forest land area is increasing due to afforestation program by 3480 000 ha in year 2040 at the maximum.
In Bulgaria there are also other activities that will reduce the forest land area that is used for production purposes and as a result of this the allowable cut will decrease. Forest is no longer seen only as a source of raw material. Clearcuttings are no longer accepted in high forests.
The forests are mostly owned by the state, but the ownership structure is going to change. About 190 000 ha is not inventoried but is liable to the forest laws. Current delivery price covers all the costs, including taxes, plantation cost and etc. The new price structure, after the ownership reform, will be based on stumpage prices. The whole economy is quite unstable. Therefore the scenario presented is only one possible forecast, which reflects a possible development of the resources, but does not consider other possible changes.
Net annual increment is increasing but at a decreasing rate. Removals have been in the recent years very low but they are expected to increase. Removals are in this scenario significantly less than in the ETTS IV forecast. The scenario is very optimistic if it is compared with current removals.
CROATIA
Secretariat estimates are based on Prof. Sabadi's estimates of growing stock and forest area. This scenario may be too optimistic and therefore all the figures may be overestimates. As a consequence of present situation in the country, these are the only figures available at this moment.
CZECH REPUBLIC
The underlying assumption are that wood production remains the main objective of forest management. The scenario assumed preservation of supply of mainly broadleaved stands of higher age classes and also more effective timber use, resulting from processing of timber of mainly lower quality.
The impact of negative agents on the forest ecosystem is still supposed in future. Increment decrease was assumed to be caused by decreasing stand density as a result of air pollution and game damages, growing ratio of broadleaved species and changes in age classes distribution. Positive impact of NOx and CO2 and global warming on forest growth is also taken in account.
DENMARK
In Denmark, The Governments' official goal is to double the forest area within the next 70 to 100 years. Thus the forest area will increase about 5000 hectares per year in the future. The removals are supposed to increase 1 per cent every year. Official policies are giving support to the achievement of this goal in two different ways. The Biomass Action Plan and Law on product development for agricultural sector are means that strengthen the demand for roundwood.
Government policy on natural forest will increase the area of forests that are not subject to commercial forest management. This policy will have a decreasing effect on the level of removals especially from broadleaved forests. Recycling of waste paper is not going to effect the roundwood and pulp markets. In the forecast changes in the productivity of the forests, due to forest damage and climate changes have not been assumed to take place.
ESTONIA
According to estimates fellings are less than net annual increment in Estonia. Baltic countries were net importers of roundwood in former USSR. The level of fellings will increase significantly in future.
FINLAND
The past development of fellings is assumed to continue in the future. The total drain will stay quite constant at about 60 million m3/year. While this may seem pessimistic regarding the net annual increment of 86 million m3/year by year 2000, there are no economic factors that could rapidly increase the total drain. The ownership of forest land area will stay as it is: 75% private, 25% state.
Agricultural production in Finland is in surplus. It is the goal of the Board of Agriculture to reduce the arable land by 200 000 ha by year 2000. This goal may not be attainable and in any case it will not have a significant effect on the timber production in the near future. The environmental policies will not have any major effect on the timber harvest, although some forest land will be transferred to nature conversation.
The effects of acid rain are visible in the forests, although the country is not yet severely affected. However, the timber supply will not be affected. There will be a slight increase in the natural loss due to the age structure of forests. Generally stumpage prices have stayed fairly constant in real terms from 1950 to 1989. There will not be any major changes in that development. The increasing gap between annual fellings and annual growth causes downward pressure to stumpage prices. This scenario is not expecting as high removals as ETTS IV forecast.
FRANCE
There will be a sharp increase in the volume of removals in coming years. After year 2000 total removals will continue to be less than increment. There is going to be a stable trend in removals of broadleaved trees. This is a result of previous government strategy of forest improvements.
For the coniferous trees the estimates are based on an age class simulation model. It is assumed that 93% input of the coniferous wood to industry will come from France and the rest will be imported. Removals will stay at the same level after year 2000.
The ownership structure or the size of the forest estates is not expected to change. No price trends are quantified and all the assumptions are quite neutral. No assumptions on how the forest owners will act are presented. Afforestation area will stay at the present level in the future, about 10 000 ha/year. Changes in agricultural policy will mean that some field afforestation will take place, but it would not change in this scenario.
Forest will be used in a more natural way and there will be more protection areas. Also no impact of forest damage to the level of removals is expected. These developments are not affecting forest production, and are not included in the forecast. Removals of coniferous trees will be less than their annual increment, thus the standing volume will be increasing. Available softwood will all be used and imports will increase. ETTS V scenario is on higher level than ETTS IV forecast due to rapid increase in pulp and paper production capacity.
GERMANY
The base scenario is based on modified inventory data. According to forecast net annual increment is decreasing and fellings are increasing in future.
GREECE
The secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. The net annual increment and felling figures are probably both underestimated. For example the gathering of fuelwood is very common and difficult to estimate.
HUNGARY
The annual fellings up to now are far below the net annual increment. Due to afforestation and plantation programmes the area of forest land has increased and growing stock will be larger in the future. The broadleaved forest resources are increasing steadily.
The removals are increasing faster than in ETTS IV forecast after year 2000, when large areas of plantation forests mature. There is still potential to increase fellings if necessary.
IRELAND
Due to a large afforestation program the net annual increment is increasing also in future. This development makes it possible to increase fellings.
ISRAEL
The secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. In Israel there is a plantation program which result in increasing net annual increment. Removal figures may be underestimates. In comparison with the ETTS IV forecast, the ETTS V scenario is low.
ITALY
The exploitable forest area will decline, and as a result annual fellings, due to:
From 2000, an increase in the area of exploitable forest is expected, because of the afforestation which will have been carried out in the meantime. ETTS V scenario for removals is lower than ETTS IV forecasts due to expected restrictions.
LATVIA
The secretariat estimate is based on new Latvian forest area and stock data.
LITHUANIA
The Lithuanian scenario is based on the assumption that more large-sized coniferous roundwood will be grown, using currently accepted rotations and methods of felling as well as methods of reconstructing less valuable broadleaves stands. Net annual increment is expected to decrease slowly. But it is still possible to increase the level of fellings because net annual increment is so much greater than fellings.
LUXEMBOURG
Secretariat estimate based on FRA1990 data. If fellings stay continuously as much under net annual increment as they are now, the growing stock will increase in the future. The ETTS V scenario assumes larger removals than the ETTS IV forecast. Because of the great importance of other goods and services than roundwood production that forest is producing, the removals are not expected to increase in future.
NETHERLANDS
The present treatment in the forest is assumed not to change. This means that average felling ages are a result of the present level of clear cut in each diameter class. Potential wood supply is defined as the potential wood quantity that can be harvested without endangering the sustained development of forest long term goals. Due to reforestation program which has been going on for last decades the growing stock is increasing still in the future. That is one explanation why ETTS V scenario is expecting higher removals than ETTS IV forecast.
NORWAY
Silvicultural activities are expected to continue on the same level in the future as in the past. Due to afforestation, forest area will stay more or less constant with some forest area set aside for nature conservation purposes. The prospects of traditional agriculture are not encouraging in Norway. So far it has not affected forestry in a negative way. However if agricultural activity is declining it may have negative effect on forestry because farmers are also forestowners. Large scale restrictions on harvesting are not anticipated. Conversion of forest land for other purposes is expected to be balanced by afforestation.
The wood consuming industry is expected to have acceptable working conditions. But no increase in total capacity of coniferous or non coniferous wood processing industry is assumed. However, the broadleaved forest resources are increasing quite rapidly. In Norway growing stock is assumed to increase due to slowly increasing gap between higher net annual increment and lower fellings. However, in ETTS V scenario the removals are on higher level than in ETTS IV forecast.
OTHER YUGOSLAVIA Excl. CROATIA
Secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. These estimates are derived from estimates which covered whole former Yugoslavia, minus Croatia for which separate data has been provided. These estimates are here only to show the levels of growing stock, net annual increment and fellings and they are not to be taken as specific scenarios. Slovenia is included in this region because of lack of data.
POLAND
State forest enterprises are the main supplier of wood in Poland. The impact of private forest owners is mainly of local character. About 10% of agricultural land will be afforested. It is estimated that the share of forest area of the country should increase from 27,7% to 30%. However this will be a slow process.
In new environmental protection policy higher cutting age and limitations of clearcuttings are recommended. These might shift the fellings to a later period, but this aging of wood stands will not considerably change the volume of harvested roundwood. Due to economic recession the demand of wood is low but in the future it will be quite constant. However the difference between growth and drain is not quite big. Due to many problems ETTS V scenario for removals is lower than ETTS IV forecast.
PORTUGAL
It is assumed that during the first decade, the forest fires problem will not be solved. The model is applied to the whole of the Portuguese forest, since 15% of it is public property, about 78% private non-industrial and 7% industrial.
It is assumed that during the forecast period growth of the net annual increment will be very slight. The evolution of coniferous fellings, due to large destruction the forests have suffered from forest fires, implies a reduction during the first two decades. The level of fellings of broadleaved species will increase slowly. The goals of new forest policy are:
The removals in 1990 were less than forecast in ETTS IV. For coming decades the removals in ETTS V scenario are assumed to be less than in ETTS IV.
ROMANIA
Secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. In 1991 the Romanian Parliament decided to establish by law the annual volume of wood to be harvested in 1992 and in period 1993–1995. The maximum volume to be harvested in 1992 was 16.5 mill m3, of which 15.6 million m3 from state forest, 0.6 mill. m3 from private forests and 0.3 mill. m3 from other wooded land. Exporting of roundwood is forbidden. Labor productivity in logging is very low and it is not expected to change very rapidly.
The transition period is going on and it will take for long time before production conditions are normal. In Romania that means that ETTS V removals are much lower than what was forecast in ETTS IV and as a consequence the growing stock is increasing in future.
SLOVAKIA
Silvicultural and harvesting activities in forestry originate from the long-term forest management plan. All the forests must be managed in accordance with the given plan. The forests are divided into three categories: commercial, protection and special purpose forests. The forests are managed taken into consideration their priority aim.
The main problem in coming years will be returning of forests to their original owners. The lack of ownership record of forest lands is making the transition difficult. Political goal is that after reform the state ownership will present 50 % of the total forest area. The area of forests is increasing and 60 000 ha of low-yielding agricultural land will be afforested in coming years. This would compensate the forest land that will be shifted for other purposes.
Decreased increment of coniferous species is expected due to the danger of forest damage caused by
excessive air pollution and acid rain. Based on the results of present investigation the broadleaved species
show a relative growth stability and the damage caused by emissions is not as markedly expressed as for
coniferous species. The allowable cut for further decade is derived by means of empirical harvesting
percentage (for the groups of species in age degrees) and the expected growing stock.
In the prognoses on the harvest only the harvesting possibilities of forests as calculated from the recursion
equation have been taken into consideration. However, the level of fellings will greatly depend on the
possibilities of sale of timber and timber products.
SPAIN
The government response does not allow distinction between private and public forest owners in removals. Expected changes in forest land area take into account afforestation, natural regeneration, agro-land forestation and area losses because of forest fires. The level of removals is based on historical data. The share of broadleaved species will increase slightly due to new eucalyptus and poplar plantations. At present, state forests represent 4 % of total forest area, community-owned 36% and privately owned 60%. As a consequence of new afforestation program the percentage of private forests will increase to 75%.
According to the scenario fellings are going to be less than net annual increment for whole period. ETTS V removals are much less than estimate for the same period that was done ten years ago in ETTS IV.
SWEDEN
The results are presented as if all forests had been analysed same way. The past development is assumed to continue in the future. Forest policy has recently been revised. Although the outcome is not yet known it is obvious that the environmental impact on forestry will increase.
The forest legislation will be liberalized and subsidies other than those for environmental purposes will almost completely disappear. The expected changes will probably not have any significant influence on roundwood supply in the short and in the medium term. However, the changes may strongly influence the future geographical and ownership pattern of the fellings.
It is assumed that the afforestation of agriculture land and the reservation of forests during next fifty years will balance each other at the end of the period and no adjustment of growing stock and increment are made. No radical changes in fellings of energy wood is expected. There is no quantitative data on the effects of airborne pollutants and it's not known how timber supply will be affected. No effect of possible climate change has been included in the estimations. Forest ownership structure will not have any significant influence on the forest resources. Real costs in forestry will remain unchanged.
According to Swedish scenario fellings are going to be very stable. Net annual increment is increasing for next twenty years and then they it will start to decrease. Coniferous growing stock is increasing quite rapidly. The estimated removals are about at the same level than in ETTS IV forecast.
SWITZERLAND
Slowdown in the rate of removals from 2000 onwards is expected. The maximum potential harvest is achieved in 2030. Roundwood prices stay unchanged relative to the general trend for raw materials. Slight increase in the share of hardwood is expected, because of ecological pressures and increase in average temperature.
Slight increase in harvesting losses (unrecovered) because of higher harvesting rates and ecological demands for more dead wood in the forest are assumed. Fellings are determined by the growing stock 10 years before. In years 1990 and 1991 fellings were larger than normal because of a strong storm which caused plenty of windthrows. However removals are assumed to larger in ETTS V scenario than IN ETTS IV.
TURKEY
Secretariat estimate is based on FRA1990 data. There have been plantation programs during the last decades, their results are not known. If removals stay at ETTS V scenarios level the growing stock is going to increase. However the statistical coverage is not good and one has to be very careful when interpreting the results. They are approximate estimates to show forest resources of Turkey.
UNITED KINGDOM
In the forecast forests in the UK are assumed to be felled according to a schedule of optimal rotation ages rather than on the basis of an allowable cut. Production and supply forecasts are based on predicted yield, which is derived form a database of crops. Rotation ages are initially set that maximise the discounted revenue from each crop in private and public ownership. That aggregate supply forecast is then adjusted to take into account local factors such as marketing, landscape and nature conservation plans before a final forecast is presented. However, there was no explanation how that was done or how strong the effects are supposed to be. During the first two decades the annual cut is far below the net increment.
Due to afforestation and plantation program the area of forest land has increased and growing stock will be larger in the future. In the UK it is assumed that there is going to be very huge overcutting after year 2020, if no further plantation is taking place. In ETTS V scenario removals are higher than in ETTS IV. Fellings are expected to increase very rapidly in future.
