SCENARIOS

(CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION TRADE, RECYCLING AND ENERGY)

16-Sep-96
Country: Albania Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	360	580	990	1200	4.09	840
	Wood-based panels	m3	15	40	80	120	7.13	105
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	56	109	160	6.24	134
	Fuelwood	m3	4470	3950	2800	2000	-2.65	-2470
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	360	580	990	1200	4.09	840
	Wood-based panels	m3	17	40	80	120	6.80	103
	Woodpulp	m.t.	15	0	0	0	-100.00	-15
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	20	20	40	1.45	14
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	2	0	0	0		-2
	Wood-based panels	m3	1	0	0	0		-1
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	-2	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	-36	-89	-120		-120
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.64	0.40	0.40	0.40
	RECOVERED	m.t.	17	22	44	64	4.60	47
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	372	612	1054	1264	4.16	892
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	20	61	211	379	10.30	359
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.05	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1193	2065	2485	4.22	1765
	Smallwood	m3		3664	2346	1462	-3.54	-2848
	Total derived removals	m3		4857	4411	3947	-0.81	-1083
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	720	580	990	1200	1.72	480
	Smallwood	m3	4310	4130	2960	2250	-2.14	-2060
	Total removals	m3	5030	4710	3950	3450	-1.25	-1580
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-613	-1075	-1285
	Smallwood	m3	0	466	614	788
	Total removals	m3	0	-147	-461	-497
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-19
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-407
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-426


RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Wood-based panels		1.10	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Woodpulp		1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Paper and paperboard		1.00	0.36	0.18	0.25
	Roundwood		0.92	0.89	0.82	0.79
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	4.42	4.01	3.59
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		4.58	4.29	3.59	3.14


11-Sep-96
Country: Albania Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	360	580	990	1200	4.09	840
	Wood-based panels	m3	15	40	80	120	7.13	105
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	56	109	160	6.24	134
	Fuelwood	m3	4470	3950	2800	2000	-2.65	-2470
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	360	580	990	1200	4.09	840
	Wood-based panels	m3	17	40	80	120	6.80	103
	Woodpulp	m.t.	15	0	0	0	-100.00	-15
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	20	20	40	1.45	14
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	2	0	0	0		-2
	Wood-based panels	m3	1	0	0	0		-1
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	-2	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	-36	-89	-120		-120
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.64	0.40	0.40	0.40
	RECOVERED	m.t.	17	22	44	64	4.60	47
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	372	612	1054	1264	4.16	892
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	20	61	211	379	10.30	359
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.05	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1193	2065	2485	4.22	1765
	Smallwood	m3		3664	2346	1462	-3.54	-2848
	Total derived removals	m3		4857	4411	3947	-0.81	-1083
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	720	580	990	1200	1.72	480
	Smallwood	m3	4310	4130	2960	2250	-2.14	-2060
	Total removals	m3	5030	4710	3950	3450	-1.25	-1580
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-613	-1075	-1285
	Smallwood	m3	0	466	614	788
	Total removals	m3	0	-147	-461	-497
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-19
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-407
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-426


RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Wood-based panels		1.10	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Woodpulp		1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Paper and paperboard		1.00	0.36	0.18	0.25
	Roundwood		0.92	0.89	0.82	0.79
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	4.42	4.01	3.59
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		4.58	4.29	3.59	3.14


11-Sep-96
Country: Austria Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	3591	3927	4329	4818	0.98	1227
	Wood-based panels	m3	836	976	1146	1354	1.62	517
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1304	1458	1630	1823	1.12	519
	Fuelwood	m3	5336	5400	5500	5600	0.16	264
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	6994	7467	8031	8586	0.69	1592
	Wood-based panels	m3	1715	2083	2606	3217	2.12	1502
	Woodpulp	m.t.	1341	1486	1587	1698	0.79	357
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	2936	3647	4524	5629	2.19	2694
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	3402	3540	3702	3768		365
	Wood-based panels	m3	879	1106	1459	1864		985
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-190	-304	-529	-914		-725
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1740	2188	2894	3806		2067
	Wood raw material	m3	-2780	-3028	-3605	-4488		-1708
	Waste paper	m.t.	-472	-747	-1100	-1472		-1000
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.54	0.56	0.58	0.60
	RECOVERED	m.t.	698	817	946	1094	1.51	396
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	3897	4152	4457	4756	0.67	859
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	3680	4152	4457	4756	0.86	1076
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.94	1.00	1.00	1.00
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		10590	11223	11818	0.53	1722
	Smallwood	m3		8070	8605	9020	0.65	1586
	Total derived removals	m3		18660	19828	20838	0.58	3308
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	10096	11014	11641	12263	0.65	2167
	Smallwood	m3	7434	7636	7928	8297	0.37	863
	Total removals	m3	17530	18650	19569	20560	0.53	3030
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	424	418	445
	Smallwood	m3	0	-434	-677	-723
	Total removals	m3	0	-10	-259	-278
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	712
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-2584
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1871

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.95	1.90	1.86	1.78
	Wood-based panels		2.05	2.13	2.27	2.38
	Woodpulp		0.88	0.83	0.75	0.65
	Paper and paperboard		2.25	2.50	2.77	3.09
	Roundwood		0.79	0.80	0.79	0.78
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.69	0.71	0.72
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.68	0.69	0.70	0.71


11-Sep-96
Country: Austria Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	3591	4115	4807	5404	1.37	1812
	Wood-based panels	m3	836	1056	1349	1602	2.19	765
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1304	1541	1821	2036	1.50	732
	Fuelwood	m3	5336	5400	5500	5600	0.16	264
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	6994	7641	8412	8994	0.84	2000
	Wood-based panels	m3	1715	2229	2998	3711	2.61	1995
	Woodpulp	m.t.	1341	1583	1751	1913	1.19	572
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	2936	3866	5167	6507	2.69	3571
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	3402	3526	3604	3590		188
	Wood-based panels	m3	879	1174	1649	2109		1230
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-190	-324	-584	-1030		-840
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1740	2325	3346	4471		2731
	Wood raw material	m3	-2780	-3741	-5189	-6338		-3558
	Waste paper	m.t.	-472	-786	-1362	-1821		-1349
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.54	0.56	0.58	0.60
	RECOVERED	m.t.	698	863	1056	1222	1.88	524
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	3897	4247	4662	4976	0.82	1079
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	3680	4247	4662	4976	1.01	1296
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.94	1.00	1.00	1.00
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		10828	11665	12285	0.66	2189
	Smallwood	m3		7869	8126	8609	0.49	1175
	Total derived removals	m3		18697	19791	20894	0.59	3364
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	10096	11014	11641	12263	0.65	2167
	Smallwood	m3	7434	7636	7928	8297	0.37	863
	Total removals	m3	17530	18650	19569	20560	0.53	3030
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	186	-24	-22
	Smallwood	m3	0	-233	-198	-312
	Total removals	m3	0	-47	-222	-334
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	712
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-2584
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1871

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.95	1.86	1.75	1.66
	Wood-based panels		2.05	2.11	2.22	2.32
	Woodpulp		0.88	0.83	0.75	0.65
	Paper and paperboard		2.25	2.51	2.84	3.20
	Roundwood		0.79	0.77	0.76	0.75
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.69	0.71	0.72
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.68	0.69	0.70	0.71


16-Sep-96
Country: Belgium Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2500	2677	2890	3090	0.71	591
	Wood-based panels	m3	1135	1358	1656	1968	1.85	833
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	2066	2527	3153	3817	2.07	1751
	Fuelwood	m3	612	696	696	696	0.43	85
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1145	1220	1309	1391	0.65	246
	Wood-based panels	m3	2358	2775	3317	3868	1.66	1510
	Woodpulp	m.t.	468	369	283	183	-3.08	-285
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1176	1454	1836	2244	2.18	1068
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1355	-1458	-1582	-1699		-344
	Wood-based panels	m3	1223	1417	1661	1900		677
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-275	-290	-294	-253		22
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-883	-1073	-1317	-1573		-690
	Wood raw material	m3	-2231	-2514	-3282	-3461		-1230
	Waste paper	m.t.	428.7	428.7	428.7	428.7		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.33	0.40	0.45	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	689	1011	1419	1908	3.45	1219
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1029	1116	1226	1335	0.87	306
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	508	670	797	934	2.05	426
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.49	0.60	0.65	0.70
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		2526	2448	2666	0.04	35
	Smallwood	m3		1158	1030	1148	0.51	162
	Total derived removals	m3		3685	3478	3814	0.18	197
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2631	2631	2631	2631	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	986	986	986	986	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	3617	3617	3617	3617	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	105	183	-35
	Smallwood	m3	0	-172	-44	-162
	Total removals	m3	0	-68	139	-197
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-223
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1304
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1527

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.46	0.46	0.45	0.45
	Wood-based panels		2.08	2.04	2.00	1.97
	Woodpulp		0.63	0.56	0.49	0.42
	Paper and paperboard		0.57	0.58	0.58	0.59
	Roundwood		0.51	0.49	0.45	0.44
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.97	0.92	1.01
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95


11-Sep-96
Country: Belgium Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2500	2736	3020	3232	0.86	732
	Wood-based panels	m3	1135	1436	1853	2205	2.24	1070
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	2066	2688	3570	4326	2.49	2260
	Fuelwood	m3	612	696	696	696	0.43	85
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1145	1244	1362	1450	0.79	305
	Wood-based panels	m3	2358	2918	3668	4279	2.01	1920
	Woodpulp	m.t.	468	380	298	189	-2.97	-279
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1176	1552	2092	2559	2.63	1383
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1355	-1491	-1658	-1782		-428
	Wood-based panels	m3	1223	1482	1814	2074		851
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-275	-299	-310	-261		14
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-883	-1136	-1478	-1767		-884
	Wood raw material	m3	-2231	-2514	-3282	-3461		-1230
	Waste paper	m.t.	428.7	428.7	428.7	428.7		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.33	0.40	0.45	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	689	1075	1607	2163	3.89	1474
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1029	1145	1295	1415	1.07	386
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	508	687	842	991	2.25	482
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.49	0.60	0.65	0.70
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		2586	2588	2825	0.24	194
	Smallwood	m3		1376	1524	1681	1.79	695
	Total derived removals	m3		3962	4113	4506	0.74	889
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2631	2631	2631	2631	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	986	986	986	986	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	3617	3617	3617	3617	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	45	43	-194
	Smallwood	m3	0	-390	-538	-695
	Total removals	m3	0	-345	-496	-889
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-223
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1304
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1527

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.46	0.45	0.45	0.45
	Wood-based panels		2.08	2.03	1.98	1.94
	Woodpulp		0.63	0.56	0.49	0.42
	Paper and paperboard		0.57	0.58	0.59	0.59
	Roundwood		0.51	0.47	0.42	0.40
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	1.05	1.09	1.19
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95


11-Sep-96
Country: Bosnia and Herzegovina Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	520	520	520	520	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	123	124	124	124	0.03	1
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	135	135	135	135	-0.00	-0
	Fuelwood	m3	631	631	631	631	-0.00	-0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1698	1698	1698	1698	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	319	319	319	319	0.00	0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	255	255	255	255	0.00	0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	216	216	216	216	0.00	0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	1178	1178	1178	1178		-0
	Wood-based panels	m3	196	195	195	195		-1
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	81	81	81	81		0
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1470	1470	1470	1470	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	150	294	441	588	4.66	438
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.10	0.20	0.30	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	2462	2462	2462	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	2747	2600	2453	-0.55	-438
	Total derived removals	m3	0	5209	5062	4915	-0.28	-438
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2462	2462	2462	2462	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	2891	2891	2891	2891	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	5353	5353	5353	5353	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	144	291	438
	Total removals	m3	0	144	291	438
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-884
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1048
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	164

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		3.27	3.27	3.27	3.27
	Wood-based panels		2.59	2.57	2.57	2.57
	Woodpulp		1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Paper and paperboard		1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60
	Roundwood		1.03	1.06	1.09	1.13
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.82	0.79	0.77
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.84	0.84	0.84	0.84


11-Sep-96
Country: Bosnia and Herzegovina Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	520	520	520	520	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	123	124	124	124	0.03	1
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	135	135	135	135	-0.00	-0
	Fuelwood	m3	631	631	631	631	-0.00	-0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1698	1698	1698	1698	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	319	319	319	319	0.00	0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	255	255	255	255	0.00	0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	216	216	216	216	0.00	0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	1178	1178	1178	1178		-0
	Wood-based panels	m3	196	195	195	195		-1
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	81	81	81	81		0
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1470	1470	1470	1470	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	150	294	441	588	4.66	438
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.10	0.20	0.30	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	2462	2462	2462	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	2747	2600	2453	-0.55	-438
	Total derived removals	m3	0	5209	5062	4915	-0.28	-438
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2462	2462	2462	2462	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	2891	2891	2891	2891	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	5353	5353	5353	5353	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	144	291	438
	Total removals	m3	0	144	291	438
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-884
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1048
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	164

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		3.27	3.27	3.27	3.27
	Wood-based panels		2.59	2.57	2.57	2.57
	Woodpulp		1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
	Paper and paperboard		1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60
	Roundwood		1.03	1.06	1.09	1.13
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.82	0.79	0.77
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.84	0.84	0.84	0.84


10-Sep-96
Country: Bulgaria Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1156	920	1120	1400	0.64	244
	Wood-based panels	m3	420	330	395	515	0.69	96
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	391	310	380	510	0.89	119
	Fuelwood	m3	1493	1610	1610	1610	0.25	117
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1208	1305	1405	1455	0.62	247
	Wood-based panels	m3	413	468	518	568	1.07	155
	Woodpulp	m.t.	166	197	227	234	1.14	67
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	340	358	430	500	1.30	161
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	52	385	285	55		3
	Wood-based panels	m3	-6	137	122	52		59
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-71	-85	-97	-100		-29
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-52	48	50	-10		42
	Wood raw material	m3	18	18	18	553		535
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.42	0.45	0.48	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	162	140	182	255	1.52	93
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1049	1115	1183	1217	0.50	168
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	332	390	449	487	1.28	155
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.32	0.35	0.38	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1232	1400	1484	1.10	415
	Smallwood	m3		2458	2609	3211	1.31	1037
	Total derived removals	m3		3690	4009	4695	1.24	1452
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1069	1224	1378	1687	1.53	618
	Smallwood	m3	2174	2489	2807	3458	1.56	1284
	Total removals	m3	3243	3713	4185	5145	1.55	1902
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-8	-22	203
	Smallwood	m3	0	31	198	247
	Total removals	m3	0	23	176	450
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1216
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1312
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-2528

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.04	1.42	1.25	1.04
	Wood-based panels		0.98	1.42	1.31	1.10
	Woodpulp		0.70	0.70	0.70	0.70
	Paper and paperboard		0.87	1.15	1.13	0.98
	Roundwood		0.56	0.60	0.64	0.77
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.41	0.41	0.46
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.36	0.41	0.43	0.50


11-Sep-96
Country: Bulgaria Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1156	920	1120	1400	0.64	244
	Wood-based panels	m3	420	330	395	515	0.69	96
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	391	310	380	510	0.89	119
	Fuelwood	m3	1493	1610	1610	1610	0.25	117
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1208	1305	1405	1455	0.62	247
	Wood-based panels	m3	413	468	518	568	1.07	155
	Woodpulp	m.t.	166	197	227	234	1.14	67
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	340	358	430	500	1.30	161
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	52	385	285	55		3
	Wood-based panels	m3	-6	137	122	52		59
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-71	-85	-97	-100		-29
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-52	48	50	-10		42
	Wood raw material	m3	18	18	18	553		535
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.42	0.45	0.48	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	162	140	182	255	1.52	93
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	1049	1115	1183	1217	0.50	168
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	332	390	449	487	1.28	155
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.32	0.35	0.38	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1232	1400	1484	1.10	415
	Smallwood	m3		2458	2609	3211	1.31	1037
	Total derived removals	m3		3690	4009	4695	1.24	1452
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1069	1224	1378	1687	1.53	618
	Smallwood	m3	2174	2489	2807	3458	1.56	1284
	Total removals	m3	3243	3713	4185	5145	1.55	1902
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-8	-22	203
	Smallwood	m3	0	31	198	247
	Total removals	m3	0	23	176	450
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1216
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1312
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-2528

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.04	1.42	1.25	1.04
	Wood-based panels		0.98	1.42	1.31	1.10
	Woodpulp		0.70	0.70	0.70	0.70
	Paper and paperboard		0.87	1.15	1.13	0.98
	Roundwood		0.56	0.60	0.64	0.77
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.41	0.41	0.46
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.36	0.41	0.43	0.50


11-Sep-96
Country: Croatia Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	223	507	735	737	4.06	514
	Wood-based panels	m3	91	121	160	165	2.00	74
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	174	455	626	722	4.85	548
	Fuelwood	m3	643	1108	1500	1519	2.91	876
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	587	1016	1394	1396	2.93	809
	Wood-based panels	m3	73	121	159	163	2.70	90
	Woodpulp	m.t.	104	114	114	114	0.32	10
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	209	230	230	230	0.32	21
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	364	509	659	659		295
	Wood-based panels	m3	-18	0	-0	-2		16
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-15	-17	-17	-17		-2
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	35	-225	-396	-492		-527
	Wood raw material	m3	206	206	206	206		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	458	782	1069	1075	2.89	617
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	78	214	323		323
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		2236	2917	2929	2.34	1464
	Smallwood	m3		1766	2142	2056	1.73	825
	Total derived removals	m3		4002	5059	4985	2.07	2289
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1465	2093	2874	2874	2.27	1409
	Smallwood	m3	1231	1718	2336	2394	2.24	1163
	Total removals	m3	2696	3811	5210	5268	2.26	2572
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-143	-43	-55
	Smallwood	m3	0	-48	194	338
	Total removals	m3	0	-191	151	283
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	281
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-145
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	136

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		2.63	2.00	1.90	1.89
	Wood-based panels		0.80	1.00	1.00	0.99
	Woodpulp		0.87	0.87	0.87	0.87
	Paper and paperboard		1.20	0.51	0.37	0.32
	Roundwood		1.15	1.04	1.10	1.13
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.00	0.53	0.66	0.65


11-Sep-96
Country: Croatia Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	223	507	735	737	4.06	514
	Wood-based panels	m3	91	121	160	165	2.00	74
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	174	455	626	722	4.85	548
	Fuelwood	m3	643	1108	1500	1519	2.91	876
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	587	1016	1394	1396	2.93	809
	Wood-based panels	m3	73	121	159	163	2.70	90
	Woodpulp	m.t.	104	114	114	114	0.32	10
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	209	230	230	230	0.32	21
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	364	509	659	659		295
	Wood-based panels	m3	-18	0	-0	-2		16
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-15	-17	-17	-17		-2
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	35	-225	-396	-492		-527
	Wood raw material	m3	206	206	206	206		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	458	782	1069	1075	2.89	617
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	78	214	323		323
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		2236	2917	2929	2.34	1464
	Smallwood	m3		1766	2142	2056	1.73	825
	Total derived removals	m3		4002	5059	4985	2.07	2289
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1465	2093	2874	2874	2.27	1409
	Smallwood	m3	1231	1718	2336	2394	2.24	1163
	Total removals	m3	2696	3811	5210	5268	2.26	2572
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-143	-43	-55
	Smallwood	m3	0	-48	194	338
	Total removals	m3	0	-191	151	283
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	281
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-145
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	136

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		2.63	2.00	1.90	1.89
	Wood-based panels		0.80	1.00	1.00	0.99
	Woodpulp		0.87	0.87	0.87	0.87
	Paper and paperboard		1.20	0.51	0.37	0.32
	Roundwood		1.15	1.04	1.10	1.13
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.53	0.66	0.65
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.36	0.50	0.68	0.68


11-Sep-96
Country: Cyprus Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	118	130	144	159	1.01	41
	Wood-based panels	m3	65	72	79	88	1.01	23
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	40	44	49	54	1.01	14
	Fuelwood	m3	15	17	18	20	1.01	5
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	22	22	22	22	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-96	-108	-122	-137		-41
	Wood-based panels	m3	-65	-72	-79	-88		-23
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-40	-44	-49	-54		-14
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.20	0.30	0.35
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	9	15	19		19
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	17	17	17	17	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	2	3	5		5
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		31	31	31	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3		27	27	27	0.03	0
	Total derived removals	m3		58	58	58	0.01	0
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	31	31	31	31	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	27	27	27	27	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	58	58	58	58	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	-0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	-0
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-8
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	12
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	4

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.19	0.17	0.15	0.14
	Wood-based panels		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Woodpulp		ERR	0.01	0.01	0.01
	Paper and paperboard		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Roundwood		1.08	1.08	1.08	1.08
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	1.14	1.14	1.14
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		1.14	1.14	1.14	1.14


11-Sep-96
Country: Cyprus Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	118	130	144	159	1.01	41
	Wood-based panels	m3	65	72	79	88	1.01	23
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	40	44	49	54	1.01	14
	Fuelwood	m3	15	17	18	20	1.01	5
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	22	22	22	22	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-96	-108	-122	-137		-41
	Wood-based panels	m3	-65	-72	-79	-88		-23
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-40	-44	-49	-54		-14
	Wood raw material	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.20	0.30	0.35
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	9	15	19		19
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	17	17	17	17	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	2	3	5		5
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.20	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		31	31	31	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3		27	27	27	0.03	0
	Total derived removals	m3		58	58	58	0.01	0
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	31	31	31	31	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	27	27	27	27	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	58	58	58	58	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	-0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	-0
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-8
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	12
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	4

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.19	0.17	0.15	0.14
	Wood-based panels		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Woodpulp		ERR	0.01	0.01	0.01
	Paper and paperboard		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Roundwood		1.08	1.08	1.08	1.08
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	1.14	1.14	1.14
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		1.14	1.14	1.14	1.14


10-Sep-96
Country: Czech Republic Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2590	2650	2710	2780	0.24	190
	Wood-based panels	m3	862	870	910	970	0.39	108
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	490	510	520	550	0.39	60
	Fuelwood	m3	1300	1330	1360	1400	0.25	100
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	3290	3380	3470	3580	0.28	290
	Wood-based panels	m3	870	960	1010	1080	0.72	210
	Woodpulp	m.t.	754	784	793	849	0.40	95
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	694	730	750	800	0.47	106
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	700	730	760	800		100
	Wood-based panels	m3	8	90	100	110		102
	Woodpulp	m.t.	93	84	72	77		-15
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	198	220	230	250		52
	Wood raw material	m3	190	190	190	190		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	247	255	260	275	0.36	28
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	2065	2123	2177	2243	0.28	178
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	500	743	827	897	1.97	397
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.24	0.35	0.38	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		7111	7255	7431	0.22	471
	Smallwood	m3		5116	5194	5561	0.33	521
	Total derived removals	m3		12227	12449	12992	0.27	992
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	6960	7120	7220	7420	0.21	460
	Smallwood	m3	5040	5110	5210	5600	0.35	560
	Total removals	m3	12000	12230	12430	13020	0.27	1020
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	9	-35	-11
	Smallwood	m3	0	-6	16	39
	Total removals	m3	0	3	-19	28
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1413
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1697
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-284

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.27	1.28	1.28	1.29
	Wood-based panels		1.01	1.10	1.11	1.11
	Woodpulp		1.14	1.12	1.10	1.10
	Paper and paperboard		1.42	1.43	1.44	1.45
	Roundwood		0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.76	0.79	0.84
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.75	0.76	0.79	0.84


11-Sep-96
Country: Czech Republic Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2590	2650	2710	2780	0.24	190
	Wood-based panels	m3	862	870	910	970	0.39	108
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	490	510	520	550	0.39	60
	Fuelwood	m3	1300	1330	1360	1400	0.25	100
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	3290	3380	3470	3580	0.28	290
	Wood-based panels	m3	870	960	1010	1080	0.72	210
	Woodpulp	m.t.	754	784	793	849	0.40	95
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	694	730	750	800	0.47	106
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	700	730	760	800		100
	Wood-based panels	m3	8	90	100	110		102
	Woodpulp	m.t.	93	84	72	77		-15
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	198	220	230	250		52
	Wood raw material	m3	190	190	190	190		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50
	RECOVERED	m.t.	247	255	260	275	0.36	28
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	2065	2123	2177	2243	0.28	178
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	500	743	827	897	1.97	397
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.24	0.35	0.38	0.40
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		7111	7255	7431	0.22	471
	Smallwood	m3		5116	5194	5561	0.33	521
	Total derived removals	m3		12227	12449	12992	0.27	992
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	6960	7120	7220	7420	0.21	460
	Smallwood	m3	5040	5110	5210	5600	0.35	560
	Total removals	m3	12000	12230	12430	13020	0.27	1020
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	9	-35	-11
	Smallwood	m3	0	-6	16	39
	Total removals	m3	0	3	-19	28
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1413
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1697
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-284

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		1.27	1.28	1.28	1.29
	Wood-based panels		1.01	1.10	1.11	1.11
	Woodpulp		1.14	1.12	1.10	1.10
	Paper and paperboard		1.42	1.43	1.44	1.45
	Roundwood		0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.76	0.79	0.84
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.75	0.76	0.79	0.84