SCENARIOS (contd.)


10-Sep-96
Country: Denmark Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2171	2314	2470	2615	0.62	444
	Wood-based panels	m3	745	899	1089	1287	1.84	543
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1285	1583	1955	2348	2.03	1063
	Fuelwood	m3	540	790	790	790	1.28	250
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	804	878	961	1041	0.86	237
	Wood-based panels	m3	295	353	422	494	1.73	199
	Woodpulp	m.t.	68	48	12	10	-6.30	-58
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	332	407	502	600	2.00	269
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1360	-1436	-1509	-1574		-214
	Wood-based panels	m3	-450	-546	-667	-794		-344
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-55	-39	-10	-8		48
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-952	-1175	-1454	-1747		-795
	Wood raw material	m3	331	-28	-128	-128		-459
	Waste paper	m.t.	114.7	150	200	350		235
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.30	0.35	0.40	0.45
	RECOVERED	m.t.	391	554	782	1056	3.37	665
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	636	701	776	850	0.97	214
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	400	456	520	595	1.33	195
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.63	0.65	0.67	0.70
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		911	978	1140	0.50	157
	Smallwood	m3		1307	1226	1232	-0.02	-7
	Total derived removals	m3		2218	2204	2372	0.22	150
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	983	864	936	1120	0.44	137
	Smallwood	m3	1239	1358	1368	1580	0.81	341
	Total removals	m3	2222	2222	2304	2700	0.65	478
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-47	-42	-20
	Smallwood	m3	0	51	142	348
	Total removals	m3	0	4	100	328
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-804
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	160
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-645

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.37	0.38	0.39	0.40
	Wood-based panels		0.40	0.39	0.39	0.38
	Woodpulp		0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55
	Paper and paperboard		0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26
	Roundwood		0.83	0.77	0.77	0.86
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.82	0.71	0.69
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.74	0.82	0.75	0.78


11-Sep-96
Country: Denmark Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2171	2335	2517	2665	0.69	495
	Wood-based panels	m3	745	923	1150	1360	2.03	616
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1285	1630	2075	2493	2.23	1208
	Fuelwood	m3	540	790	790	790	1.28	250
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	804	889	987	1069	0.95	265
	Wood-based panels	m3	295	362	444	519	1.90	224
	Woodpulp	m.t.	68	47	6	-2		-70
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	332	419	532	637	2.20	305
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1360	-1446	-1530	-1597		-237
	Wood-based panels	m3	-450	-561	-706	-841		-391
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-55	-38	-5	2		57
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-952	-1211	-1544	-1856		-904
	Wood raw material	m3	331	-28	-128	-128		-459
	Waste paper	m.t.	114.7	150	200	350		235
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.30	0.35	0.40	0.45
	RECOVERED	m.t.	391	571	830	1122	3.57	731
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	636	711	799	876	1.07	240
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	400	462	536	613	1.44	213
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.63	0.65	0.67	0.70
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		933	1029	1198	0.66	215
	Smallwood	m3		1309	1219	1211	-0.08	-28
	Total derived removals	m3		2242	2248	2409	0.27	187
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	983	864	936	1120	0.44	137
	Smallwood	m3	1239	1358	1368	1580	0.81	341
	Total removals	m3	2222	2222	2304	2700	0.65	478
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-69	-93	-78
	Smallwood	m3	0	49	149	369
	Total removals	m3	0	-20	56	291
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-804
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	160
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-645

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.37	0.38	0.39	0.40
	Wood-based panels		0.40	0.39	0.39	0.38
	Woodpulp		0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55
	Paper and paperboard		0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26
	Roundwood		0.83	0.76	0.76	0.85
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.82	0.73	0.70
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.74	0.82	0.75	0.78


11-Sep-96
Country: Estonia Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	638	454	502	589	-0.27	-49
	Wood-based panels	m3	222	166	202	265	0.59	43
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	58	41	52	69	0.60	11
	Fuelwood	m3	414	414	414	414	0.00	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	620	620	620	620	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	302	302	302	302	0.00	0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	83	80	75	67	-0.71	-16
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	43	43	43	43	0.00	0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-18	166	118	31		49
	Wood-based panels	m3	80	136	100	37		-43
	Woodpulp	m.t.	14	13	13	11		-3
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-15	2	-9	-26		-11
	Roundwood	m3	8	8	8	8		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.07	0.15	0.20	0.25
	RECOVERED	m.t.	4	6	10	17	5.01	13
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	506	506	506	506	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	51	76	101		101
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.15	0.20
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1234	1234	1234	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3		1714	1667	1606	-0.34	-170
	Total derived removals	m3		2948	2901	2840	-0.19	-170
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1234	1886	2632	2820	2.79	1586
	Smallwood	m3	1776	2714	3788	4060	2.79	2284
	Total removals	m3	3010	4600	6420	6880	2.79	3870
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	652	1398	1586
	Smallwood	m3	0	1000	2121	2454
	Total removals	m3	0	1652	3519	4040
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	103
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	530
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	633

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.97	1.37	1.24	1.05
	Wood-based panels		1.36	1.82	1.50	1.14
	Woodpulp		1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20
	Paper and paperboard		0.74	1.04	0.83	0.62
	Roundwood		1.27	1.99	2.84	3.13
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.41	0.40	0.39
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.42	0.64	0.89	0.95


11-Sep-96
Country: Estonia Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	638	454	502	589	-0.27	-49
	Wood-based panels	m3	222	166	202	265	0.59	43
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	58	41	52	69	0.60	11
	Fuelwood	m3	414	414	414	414	0.00	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	620	620	620	620	0.00	0
	Wood-based panels	m3	302	302	302	302	0.00	0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	83	80	75	67	-0.71	-16
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	43	43	43	43	0.00	0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-18	166	118	31		49
	Wood-based panels	m3	80	136	100	37		-43
	Woodpulp	m.t.	14	13	13	11		-3
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-15	2	-9	-26		-11
	Roundwood	m3	8	8	8	8		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.07	0.15	0.20	0.25
	RECOVERED	m.t.	4	6	10	17	5.01	13
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	506	506	506	506	0.00	0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	51	76	101		101
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.10	0.15	0.20
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1234	1234	1234	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3		1714	1667	1606	-0.34	-170
	Total derived removals	m3		2948	2901	2840	-0.19	-170
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	1234	1886	2632	2820	2.79	1586
	Smallwood	m3	1776	2714	3788	4060	2.79	2284
	Total removals	m3	3010	4600	6420	6880	2.79	3870
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	652	1398	1586
	Smallwood	m3	0	1000	2121	2454
	Total removals	m3	0	1652	3519	4040
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	103
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	530
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	633

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.97	1.37	1.24	1.05
	Wood-based panels		1.36	1.82	1.50	1.14
	Woodpulp		1.20	1.20	1.20	1.20
	Paper and paperboard		0.74	1.04	0.83	0.62
	Roundwood		1.27	1.99	2.84	3.13
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.41	0.40	0.39
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.42	0.64	0.89	0.95


10-Sep-96
Country: Finland Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2705	2692	2803	2919	0.25	214
	Wood-based panels	m3	627	656	717	784	0.75	157
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1442	1392	1620	1903	0.93	461
	Fuelwood	m3	2942	4300	4300	4300	1.27	1358
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	7178	8061	9423	10878	1.40	3700
	Wood-based panels	m3	1245	1363	1537	1723	1.09	478
	Woodpulp	m.t.	8771	9636	10953	12358	1.15	3586
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	8859	9727	11128	12583	1.18	3724
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	4474	5368	6620	7959		3485
	Wood-based panels	m3	618	707	820	939		321
	Woodpulp	m.t.	1338	1470	1671	1885		547
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	7417	8335	9508	10680		3263
	Wood raw material	m3	-5484	-6243	-7243	-9128		-3644
	Waste paper	m.t.	-10.3	-12	-16	-16		-6
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.28	0.32	0.35	0.35
	RECOVERED	m.t.	410	446	567	666	1.63	256
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	10052	11318	13216	15239	1.40	5187
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	6847	8488	11234	13715	2.34	6868
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.68	0.75	0.85	0.90
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		25562	28929	30631	0.91	7309
	Smallwood	m3		23327	24044	26327	0.81	5645
	Total derived removals	m3		48889	52973	56959	0.86	12955
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	23322	24800	25800	28300	0.65	4978
	Smallwood	m3	20682	24000	25500	28000	1.01	7318
	Total removals	m3	44004	48800	51300	56300	0.82	12296
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-762	-3129	-2331
	Smallwood	m3	0	673	1456	1673
	Total removals	m3	0	-89	-1673	-659
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	5589
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1082
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	4507

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		2.65	2.99	3.36	3.73
	Wood-based panels		1.98	2.08	2.14	2.20
	Woodpulp		1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18
	Paper and paperboard		6.14	6.99	6.87	6.61
	Roundwood		0.98	0.97	0.92	0.92
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.67	0.65	0.61
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.63	0.66	0.63	0.60


11-Sep-96
Country: Finland Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	2705	2725	2872	2990	0.33	285
	Wood-based panels	m3	627	666	740	809	0.85	182
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	1442	1461	1799	2133	1.31	690
	Fuelwood	m3	2942	4300	4300	4300	1.27	1358
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	7178	8404	10277	11892	1.70	4714
	Wood-based panels	m3	1245	1396	1615	1811	1.26	567
	Woodpulp	m.t.	8771	9987	11773	13292	1.40	4521
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	8859	10088	11983	13567	1.43	4708
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	4474	5678	7405	8902		4428
	Wood-based panels	m3	618	729	875	1002		384
	Woodpulp	m.t.	1338	1523	1796	2028		690
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	7417	8627	10184	11434		4018
	Wood raw material	m3	-5484	-6743	-8243	-10128		-4644
	Waste paper	m.t.	-10.3	-12	-16	-16		-6
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.28	0.32	0.35	0.35
	RECOVERED	m.t.	410	468	630	746	2.02	336
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	10052	11788	14385	16624	1.69	6572
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	6847	8841	12227	14962	2.64	8115
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.68	0.75	0.85	0.90
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		26398	31006	34094	1.27	10772
	Smallwood	m3		23652	24802	26213	0.79	5531
	Total derived removals	m3		50050	55808	60307	1.06	16303
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	23322	25300	26800	31300	0.99	7978
	Smallwood	m3	20682	24000	26500	29000	1.13	8318
	Total removals	m3	44004	49300	53300	60300	1.06	16296
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-1098	-4206	-2794
	Smallwood	m3	0	348	1698	2787
	Total removals	m3	0	-750	-2508	-7
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	5589
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1082
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	4507

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		2.65	3.08	3.58	3.98
	Wood-based panels		1.98	2.09	2.18	2.24
	Woodpulp		1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18
	Paper and paperboard		6.14	6.90	6.66	6.36
	Roundwood		0.98	0.95	0.90	0.92
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.68	0.69	0.65
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.63	0.67	0.66	0.65


11-Sep-96
Country: France Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	11673	12474	13548	14570	0.74	2897
	Wood-based panels	m3	3641	4625	6033	7731	2.54	4090
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	8474	10152	12830	15896	2.12	7422
	Fuelwood	m3	9742	11899	14533	17751	2.02	8009
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	10380	11268	12499	13763	0.94	3383
	Wood-based panels	m3	3202	3343	3570	3797	0.57	594
	Woodpulp	m.t.	2085	2755	2701	2542	0.66	457
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	6967	7999	9171	10394	1.34	3427
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1294	-1207	-1049	-807		486
	Wood-based panels	m3	-439	-1282	-2464	-3935		-3496
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-1510	-1071	-900	-717		793
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-1507	-2154	-3660	-5502		-3995
	Wood raw material	m3	3918	3918	3918	3918		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	-274.7	-274.7	-274.7	-274.7		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.35	0.37	0.40	0.42
	RECOVERED	m.t.	2974	3756	5132	6676	2.73	3702
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	9797	10580	11712	12900	0.92	3102
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	5664	6877	8199	9675	1.80	4011
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.58	0.65	0.70	0.75
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		25077	27406	29833	0.80	6372
	Smallwood	m3		28288	29729	31163	0.82	6774
	Total derived removals	m3		53365	57135	60996	0.81	13146
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	23461	25891	28044	29997	0.82	6536
	Smallwood	m3	24389	27109	28956	30503	0.75	6114
	Total removals	m3	47850	53000	57000	60500	0.78	12650
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	814	638	164
	Smallwood	m3	0	-1179	-773	-660
	Total removals	m3	0	-365	-135	-496
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1805
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	5043
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	6849

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.89	0.90	0.92	0.94
	Wood-based panels		0.88	0.72	0.59	0.49
	Woodpulp		0.58	0.72	0.75	0.78
	Paper and paperboard		0.82	0.79	0.71	0.65
	Roundwood		1.28	1.24	1.22	1.20
	Derived removals/Net increment			0.85	0.87	0.89
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.87	0.84	0.86	0.88


12-Sep-96
Country: France Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	11673	12766	14210	15302	0.91	3629
	Wood-based panels	m3	3641	4768	6428	8252	2.77	4611
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	8474	10818	14715	18371	2.61	9898
	Fuelwood	m3	9742	11899	14533	17751	2.02	8009
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	10380	11585	13267	14666	1.16	4287
	Wood-based panels	m3	3202	3413	3729	3973	0.72	771
	Woodpulp	m.t.	2085	2639	2425	2085	-0.00	-0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	6967	8085	9563	10856	1.49	3889
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-1294	-1181	-943	-636		658
	Wood-based panels	m3	-439	-1354	-2699	-4279		-3841
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-1510	-1026	-808	-588		922
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-1507	-2732	-5152	-7516		-6009
	Wood raw material	m3	3918	3918	3918	3918		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	-274.7	-274.7	-274.7	-274.7		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.35	0.37	0.40	0.42
	RECOVERED	m.t.	2974	4002	5886	7716	3.23	4742
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	9797	10879	12443	13767	1.14	3970
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	5664	7071	8710	10326	2.02	4662
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.58	0.65	0.70	0.75
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		25694	28905	31604	1.00	8143
	Smallwood	m3		27717	28313	28904	0.57	4515
	Total derived removals	m3		53411	57218	60508	0.79	12658
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	23461	25891	28044	29997	0.82	6536
	Smallwood	m3	24389	27109	28956	30503	0.75	6114
	Total removals	m3	47850	53000	57000	60500	0.78	12650
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	197	-861	-1607
	Smallwood	m3	0	-608	643	1599
	Total removals	m3	0	-411	-218	-8
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	1805
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	5043
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	6849

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.89	0.91	0.93	0.96
	Wood-based panels		0.88	0.72	0.58	0.48
	Woodpulp		0.58	0.72	0.75	0.78
	Paper and paperboard		0.82	0.75	0.65	0.59
	Roundwood		1.28	1.24	1.22	1.21
	Derived removals/Net increment			0.85	0.87	0.88
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.87	0.84	0.86	0.88


10-Sep-96
Country: Germany Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	17786	19400	21128	22704	0.82	4918
	Wood-based panels	m3	10283	11617	13067	14439	1.14	4156
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	14891	18253	22241	26426	1.93	11535
	Fuelwood	m3	5000	6000	6500	7000	1.13	2000
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	13440	14890	16596	18262	1.03	4822
	Wood-based panels	m3	8936	10096	11470	12853	1.22	3916
	Woodpulp	m.t.	2898	2001	1619	1354	-2.50	-1544
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	12356	14935	17994	21224	1.82	8867
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-4346	-4510	-4532	-4442		-96
	Wood-based panels	m3	-1346	-1521	-1596	-1586		-240
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-3688	-2880	-2757	-2749		939
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-2534	-3318	-4247	-5202		-2668
	Wood in the rough	m3	4344	2293	2293	-100		-4444
	Waste paper	m.t.	739.7	600	300	0		-740
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.44	0.60	0.65	0.68
	RECOVERED	m.t.	6605	10952	14457	17969	3.39	11364
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	7989	9330	11114	12243	1.43	4254
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	8858	9797	11669	12855	1.25	3997
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		1.11	1.05	1.05	1.05
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		27660	31216	33501	0.89	7839
	Smallwood	m3		19537	18409	16571	-1.02	-5938
	Total derived removals	m3		47197	49624	50072	0.13	1901
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	25662	26175	26664	27024	0.17	1362
	Smallwood	m3	22509	22215	22890	23388	0.13	879
	Total removals	m3	48171	48390	49554	50412	0.15	2241
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-1485	-4552	-6477
	Smallwood	m3	0	2678	4481	6817
	Total removals	m3	0	1193	-70	340
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	2251
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1767
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	483

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.76	0.77	0.79	0.80
	Wood-based panels		0.87	0.87	0.88	0.89
	Woodpulp		0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33
	Paper and paperboard		0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80
	Roundwood		1.09	1.07	1.04	1.01
	Derived removals/Net increment			0.67	0.72	0.74
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.68	0.69	0.72	0.74


11-Sep-96
Country: Germany Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	17786	19939	22317	23979	1.00	6194
	Wood-based panels	m3	10283	12007	13972	15450	1.37	5167
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	14891	19126	24513	29191	2.27	14301
	Fuelwood	m3	5000	6000	6500	7000	1.13	2000
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	13440	15407	17790	19600	1.27	6160
	Wood-based panels	m3	8936	10452	12329	13849	1.47	4913
	Woodpulp	m.t.	2898	1787	1528	1292	-2.66	-1606
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	12356	14935	19188	22850	2.07	10494
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-4346	-4532	-4527	-4380		-34
	Wood-based panels	m3	-1346	-1554	-1643	-1601		-254
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-3688	-2571	-2602	-2623		1066
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-2534	-4191	-5325	-6341		-3807
	Wood in the rough	m3	4344	2293	400	-2100		-6444
	Waste paper	m.t.	739.7	600	300	0		-740
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.44	0.60	0.65	0.68
	RECOVERED	m.t.	6605	11475	15933	19850	3.74	13245
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	7989	9654	11918	13156	1.68	5167
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	8858	10137	12514	13814	1.49	4956
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		1.11	1.05	1.05	1.05
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		28532	32698	33858	0.93	8196
	Smallwood	m3		18829	16892	16477	-1.03	-6032
	Total derived removals	m3		47361	49590	50335	0.15	2164
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	25662	26175	26664	27024	0.17	1362
	Smallwood	m3	22509	22215	22890	23388	0.13	879
	Total removals	m3	48171	48390	49554	50412	0.15	2241
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-2357	-6034	-6834
	Smallwood	m3	0	3386	5998	6911
	Total removals	m3	0	1029	-36	77
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	2251
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-1767
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	483

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.76	0.77	0.80	0.82
	Wood-based panels		0.87	0.87	0.88	0.90
	Woodpulp		0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33
	Paper and paperboard		0.83	0.78	0.78	0.78
	Roundwood		1.09	1.07	1.02	0.97
	Derived removals/Net increment			0.68	0.72	0.74
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.68	0.69	0.72	0.74


10-Sep-96
Country: Greece Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	945	1004	1070	1132	0.60	187
	Wood-based panels	m3	517	604	710	818	1.54	301
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	673	870	1123	1402	2.48	729
	Fuelwood	m3	1359	1359	1359	1359	0.00	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	403	442	484	526	0.89	122
	Wood-based panels	m3	407	466	534	604	1.32	197
	Woodpulp	m.t.	39	47	55	61	1.48	22
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	339	445	582	734	2.61	395
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-566	-563	-585	-606		-40
	Wood-based panels	m3	-109	-139	-175	-214		-105
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-131	-156	-183	-203		-72
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-373	-425	-541	-668		-295
	Wood raw material	m3	-263	-263	-263	-263		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	-10	-10	-10	-10		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.17	0.20	0.23	0.26
	RECOVERED	m.t.	115	174	258	365	3.92	250
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	501	531	564	595	0.57	94
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	97	122	147	179	2.04	81
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.19	0.23	0.26	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		429	506	581	1.61	221
	Smallwood	m3		2217	2312	2396	0.38	258
	Total derived removals	m3		2646	2819	2977	0.59	479
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	360	360	360	360	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	2138	2138	2138	2138	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	2498	2498	2498	2498	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-69	-146	-221
	Smallwood	m3	0	-79	-174	-258
	Total removals	m3	0	-148	-321	-479
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-386
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	122
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-264

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46
	Wood-based panels		0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74
	Woodpulp		0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
	Paper and paperboard		0.50	0.51	0.52	0.52
	Roundwood		0.82	0.79	0.75	0.71
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.94	1.00	1.06
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89


11-Sep-96
Country: Greece Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	945	1012	1086	1149	0.65	204
	Wood-based panels	m3	517	615	736	849	1.67	333
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	673	895	1190	1486	2.68	813
	Fuelwood	m3	1359	1359	1359	1359	0.00	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	403	446	495	537	0.96	134
	Wood-based panels	m3	407	473	552	624	1.43	217
	Woodpulp	m.t.	39	48	58	65	1.70	26
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	339	458	618	779	2.81	440
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-566	-565	-591	-612		-46
	Wood-based panels	m3	-109	-142	-185	-226		-116
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-131	-161	-195	-217		-86
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-373	-437	-572	-706		-333
	Wood raw material	m3	-263	-263	-263	-263		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	-10	-10	-10	-10		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.17	0.20	0.23	0.26
	RECOVERED	m.t.	115	179	274	386	4.12	271
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	501	535	572	604	0.62	103
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	97	123	149	181	2.09	84
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.19	0.23	0.26	0.30
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		438	525	601	1.73	241
	Smallwood	m3		2230	2345	2433	0.43	295
	Total derived removals	m3		2668	2870	3035	0.65	537
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	360	360	360	360	0.00	0
	Smallwood	m3	2138	2138	2138	2138	0.00	0
	Total removals	m3	2498	2498	2498	2498	0.00	0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-78	-165	-241
	Smallwood	m3	0	-92	-207	-295
	Total removals	m3	0	-170	-372	-537
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	-386
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	122
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	-264

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.43	0.44	0.46	0.47
	Wood-based panels		0.79	0.77	0.75	0.73
	Woodpulp		0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
	Paper and paperboard		0.50	0.51	0.52	0.52
	Roundwood		0.82	0.78	0.73	0.70
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.95	1.02	1.08
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89


10-Sep-96
Country: Hungary Scenario:BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1670	1450	1670	1900	0.43	230
	Wood-based panels	m3	396	401	435	476	0.62	80
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	622	720	770	810	0.88	188
	Fuelwood	m3	2264	2300	2350	2400	0.19	136
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1095	900	1000	1000	-0.30	-95
	Wood-based panels	m3	403	394	569	629	1.50	226
	Woodpulp	m.t.	44	0	0	0	-100.00	-44
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	437	450	550	600	1.06	163
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-575	-550	-670	-900		-325
	Wood-based panels	m3	7	-7	134	153		146
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-147	-151	-216	-234		-87
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-185	-270	-220	-210		-25
	Wood raw material	m3	285	88	88	88		-197
	Waste paper	m.t.	-24	-24	-24	-24		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.36	0.38	0.40	0.42
	RECOVERED	m.t.	221	274	308	340	1.45	119
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	690	577	639	639	-0.26	-51
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	325	289	339	358	0.32	33
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.47	0.50	0.53	0.56
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		1850	2017	2017	-0.05	-31
	Smallwood	m3		3857	4163	4307	0.05	67
	Total derived removals	m3		5707	6180	6324	0.02	36
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2048	1635	2150	2380	0.50	332
	Smallwood	m3	4240	3475	3990	4620	0.29	380
	Total removals	m3	6288	5110	6140	7000	0.36	712
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-215	133	363
	Smallwood	m3	0	-382	-173	313
	Total removals	m3	0	-597	-40	676
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	339
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	122
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	461

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.66	0.62	0.60	0.53
	Wood-based panels		1.02	0.98	1.31	1.32
	Woodpulp		0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Paper and paperboard		0.70	0.63	0.71	0.74
	Roundwood		1.12	0.97	1.07	1.19
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.65	0.64	0.60
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.75	0.58	0.63	0.66


11-Sep-96
Country: Hungary Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1670	1450	1670	1900	0.43	230
	Wood-based panels	m3	396	401	435	476	0.62	80
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	622	720	770	810	0.88	188
	Fuelwood	m3	2264	2300	2350	2400	0.19	136
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	1095	1250	1350	1400	0.82	305
	Wood-based panels	m3	403	504	569	629	1.50	226
	Woodpulp	m.t.	44	44	50	54	0.69	10
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	437	490	550	600	1.06	163
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-575	-200	-320	-500		75
	Wood-based panels	m3	7	103	134	153		146
	Woodpulp	m.t.	-147	-147	-167	-180		-33
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-185	-230	-220	-210		-25
	Wood raw material	m3	285	1050	1050	1050		765
	Waste paper	m.t.	-24	-24	-24	-24		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.36	0.38	0.40	0.42
	RECOVERED	m.t.	221	274	308	340	1.45	119
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	690	782	844	869	0.77	179
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	325	391	447	487	1.36	162
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.47	0.50	0.53	0.56
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		2508	2675	2750	0.99	702
	Smallwood	m3		4940	5065	5201	0.68	961
	Total derived removals	m3		7448	7740	7951	0.79	1663
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	2048	2355	2536	2852	1.11	804
	Smallwood	m3	4240	5144	5243	5662	0.97	1422
	Total removals	m3	6288	7499	7779	8514	1.02	2226
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	-153	-139	102
	Smallwood	m3	0	204	178	461
	Total removals	m3	0	51	39	563
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	339
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	122
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	461

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.66	0.86	0.81	0.74
	Wood-based panels		1.02	1.26	1.31	1.32
	Woodpulp		0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
	Paper and paperboard		0.70	0.68	0.71	0.74
	Roundwood		1.12	1.24	1.23	1.30
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.84	0.80	0.75
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.75	0.85	0.80	0.81


11-Sep-96
Country: Iceland Scenario: BASE LOW
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	63	70	77	85	1.01	22
	Wood-based panels	m3	33	37	41	45	1.01	12
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	28	31	35	1.01	9
	Fuelwood	m3	0	0	0	0	1.01	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Wood-based panels	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-63	-70	-77	-85		-22
	Wood-based panels	m3	-33	-37	-41	-45		-12
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-26	-28	-31	-35		-9
	Roundwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERED RATE	%	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	3	3	3		3
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		0	0	0		0
	Smallwood	m3		0	0	0		0
	Total derived removals	m3		0	0	0		0
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	0		0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	0
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	0
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	0
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	0

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Wood-based panels		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Woodpulp		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Paper and paperboard		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Roundwood		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00


11-Sep-96
Country: Iceland Scenario: BASE HIGH
		Units					Change 1990–2020
		1000	1990	2000	2010	2020	(% p.a.)	(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	63	70	77	85	1.01	22
	Wood-based panels	m3	33	37	41	45	1.01	12
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	26	28	31	35	1.01	9
	Fuelwood	m3	0	0	0	0	1.01	0
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
	Sawnwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Wood-based panels	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
FORECAST NET TRADE:
	Sawnwood	m3	-63	-70	-77	-85		-22
	Wood-based panels	m3	-33	-37	-41	-45		-12
	Woodpulp	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
	Paper and paperboard	m.t.	-26	-28	-31	-35		-9
	Roundwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Waste paper	m.t.	0	0	0	0		0
WASTE PAPER:
	RECOVERY RATE	%	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10
	RECOVERED	m.t.	0	3	3	3		3
RESIDUES:
	GENERATED	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	DOMESTIC SUPPLY	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	DOM. SUPPLY/GENERATED		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3		0	0	0		0
	Smallwood	m3		0	0	0		0
	Total derived removals	m3		0	0	0		0
FORECASTED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	0		0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	0		0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
	Sawlogs and veneer logs	m3	0	0	0	0
	Smallwood	m3	0	0	0	0
	Total removals	m3	0	0	0	0
	Logdiff (recorded-derived)	m3	0
	Smalldiff (recorded-derived)	m3	0
	Total diff (recorded-derived)	m3	0

RATIOS:	Production/consumption
	Sawnwood		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Wood-based panels		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Woodpulp		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Paper and paperboard		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Roundwood		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Derived removals/Net increment		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Forecasted removals/Net increment		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00