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SCENARIOS (contd.)

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION: EAST EUROPE       Scenario:Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm3125161263514005164400.913924
 Wood-based panelsm343744714527662401.191865
 Paper and paperboardm.t.33673687443355121.662145
 Fuelwoodm395021074011370114800.631978
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm3132101367414854169340.833724
 Wood-based panelsm347205100590967051.181985
 Woodpulpm.t.26162596289031930.67577
 Paper and paperboardm.t.34543767454455141.572060
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm36941039849494 -200
 Wood-based panelsm3346386633466 120
 Woodpulpm.t.-211-240-365-414 -202
 Paper and paperboardm.t.81801102 -79
 Roundwoodm31118-2185-3185-5150 -6267
 M3 EQ 2133-682-2039-5392 -7525
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVEREDm.t.12461586203127732.701527
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm3870588099517107180.702012
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm328143208380547751.781962
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm302858430510323380.312907
 Smallwoodm303312733962350030.08833
 Total derived removalsm306171164472673410.193740
FORECASTED REMOVALS:0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm3294312950430779321670.302736
 Smallwoodm3341703320434235362370.202067
 Total removalsm3636016270865014684040.244803
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm30920269-171  
 Smallwoodm30772731234  
 Total removalsm309975421063  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m37059     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m3-3380     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m33679     

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION:SOUTH-EAST EUROPE       Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm387861008911509125341.193748
 Wood-based panelsm320472493302936451.941598
 Paper and paperboardm.t.19412669349044672.822527
 Fuelwoodm3169692103921085210990.734129
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm390641044311915128341.173770
 Wood-based panelsm320782520303636321.881554
 Woodpulpm.t.1051985966908-0.49-143
 Paper and paperboardm.t.16271936233829421.991315
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm3283354406300 17
 Wood-based panelsm326277-13 -39
 Woodpulpm.t.-447-447-456-493 -45
 Paper and paperboardm.t.-317-733-1152-1526 -1208
 Roundwoodm3-562-1666-562-562 0
 M3 EQ -3025-5420-5722-7342 -4317
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVERY RATE%21.930.436.443.4  
 RECOVEREDm.t.425812127019395.191514
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm3754586429870106011.143056
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm33901576264738107.893420
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm301479517837194911.476901
 Smallwoodm303169232149316910.272470
 Total derived removalsm304648749986511820.689370
FORECASTED REMOVALS:0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm3125911451417300191091.406518
 Smallwoodm3292213227833880353890.646168
 Total removalsm3418124679251180544980.8912686
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm30-281-537-382  
 Smallwoodm3058617313698  
 Total removalsm3030511943316  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m3-4764     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m34929     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m3165     

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION: BALTIC COUNTRIES       Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm317621920265930611.861299
 Wood-based panelsm36166016768250.98209
 Paper and paperboardm.t.3262943434581.14132
 Fuelwoodm331704141522255021.862332
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm321862456257626960.70510
 Wood-based panelsm3951991103610360.2985
 Woodpulpm.t.2051802032230.2818
 Paper and paperboardm.t.3683614114610.7593
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm3424536-83-365 -789
 Wood-based panelsm3335390360211 -124
 Woodpulpm.t.-142-113-112-82 59
 Paper and paperboardm.t.4267683 -40
 Roundwoodm3676676676676 0
 M3 EQ 1405187284572 -1333
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVERY RATE%10.427.332.137.1  
 RECOVEREDm.t.34801101705.52136
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm317702038212822180.75448
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm32254115907754.21550
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm305123533355430.66993
 Smallwoodm306972805482430.911960
 Total derived removalsm301209513387137860.812953
FORECASTED REMOVALS:0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm345506178773684652.093915
 Smallwoodm36283840410586114122.015129
 Total removalsm3108331458218322198772.049044
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm30105524032922  
 Smallwoodm30143225323169  
 Total removalsm30248749356091  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m3770     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m359     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m3829     

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION: EUROPEAN UNION(15)       Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm3739387723681875862370.5112299
 Wood-based panelsm3333953741842869488391.2815444
 Paper and paperboardm.t.569926685681427964211.7739429
 Fuelwoodm3387094574749982548201.1716111
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm3615756574970635751770.6713603
 Wood-based panelsm3288273216936827420151.2613188
 Woodpulpm.t.301323057332345331250.322994
 Paper and paperboardm.t.587336756279112908841.4732151
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm3-12453-11487-11240-11060 1393
 Wood-based panelsm3-4567-5249-6041-6824 -2256
 Woodpulpm.t.-5264-3391-2549-1426 3838
 Paper and paperboardm.t.1805706-2315-5537 -7342
 Roundwoodm3-15136-14457-12946-14315 822
 M3 EQ -57902.2-52560.7-58544.6-67006.8 -9105
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVERY RATE%37.446.250.154.2  
 RECOVEREDm.t.213273090640767522673.0330940
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm3548195893064449692700.7814450
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm3405904601852959588321.2418242
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm301312781410631500330.6325790
 Smallwoodm301478561597181677800.6830748
 Total derived removalsm302791343007813178120.6656538
FORECASTED REMOVALS:     0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm31242431332861409281497160.6225473
 Smallwoodm31370321471241580541678310.6830799
 Total removalsm32612752804102989823175470.6556272
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm302008-135-317  
 Smallwoodm30-732-166451  
 Total removalsm301276-1799-265  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m38545     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m3-8832     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m3-287     

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION: WESTERN EUROPE (18)       Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm3831968724592635977760.5414579
 Wood-based panelsm3355563997045951525871.3117030
 Paper and paperboardm.t.5961070358862971032691.8543658
 Fuelwoodm3496226081965868715971.2321975
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm3705187562581529871830.7116665
 Wood-based panelsm3311233486940070459321.3114809
 Woodpulpm.t.328073333735356363460.343539
 Paper and paperboardm.t.621747165184342976231.5235448
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm3-12765-11620-11106-10592 2173
 Wood-based panelsm3-4439-5101-5881-6655 -2216
 Woodpulpm.t.-5296-3491-2720-1696 3600
 Paper and paperboardm.t.25871293-1955-5646 -8233
 Roundwoodm3-15611-14553-11438-12807 2804
 M3 EQ -56166-51077-56082-66001 -9834
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVERY RATE%37.746.250.154.2  
 RECOVEREDm.t.224503252743221559343.0933484
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm3615656636572640782890.8016724
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm3435805004757884648121.3321232
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm301453821572511681690.6931144
 Smallwoodm301753791900531996230.7439765
 Total derived removalsm303207613473033677910.7270909
FORECASTED REMOVALS:0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm31370251480361574781678860.6830861
 Smallwoodm31598581751041887942012310.7741373
 Total removalsm32968833231403462723691170.7372234
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm302654227-283  
 Smallwoodm30-275-12591608  
 Total removalsm302379-10311326  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m34946     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m3-7483     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m3-2537     

20-Sep-96
COUNTRY OR REGION:COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION       Scenario: MINIMUM IMPORTS 2
  Units    Change 1990–2020
  10001990200020102020(% p.a.)(1000 units)
FORECAST CONSUMPTION:
 Sawnwoodm3176781847421260243491.076671
 Wood-based panelsm359856379711082851.092300
 Paper and paperboardm.t.46035196624676161.693013
 Fuelwoodm3205042266423617232260.422722
FORECAST PRODUCTION:
 Sawnwoodm3195772096023048254600.885883
 Wood-based panelsm367217212814489840.972263
 Woodpulpm.t.35443391362738430.27299
 Paper and paperboardm.t.48235143597070101.252187
FORECAST NET TRADE:
 Sawnwoodm31901248617881111 -790
 Wood-based panelsm37368331034700 -36
 Woodpulpm.t.-597-572-674-668 -71
 Paper and paperboardm.t.207-52-276-606 -813
 Roundwoodm31307-1995-2995-4960 -6267
 M3 EQ 3648652-2350-6990 -10638
WASTE PAPER:
 RECOVERY RATE%31.037.540.846.1  
 RECOVEREDm.t.14251949254935083.052083
RESIDUES:
 AVAILABLEm3140721500916536180420.833970
 DOMESTIC SUPPLYm334094312557071952.523786
DERIVED REMOVALS OF DOMESTIC WOOD:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm304281446503489710.537128
 Smallwoodm30521165259252257-0.06-906
 Total derived removalsm3094930990941012280.216222
FORECASTED REMOVALS:0
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm3418434412948248506740.648831
 Smallwoodm3531635478257597599340.406771
 Total removalsm395006989111058451106080.5115602
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECASTED AND DERIVED REMOVALS:
 Sawlogs and veneer logsm30131517451703  
 Smallwoodm30266650057677  
 Total removalsm30398167519380  
 Logdiff ( recorded-derived)m37277     
 Smalldiff (recorded-derived)m3-1702     
 Total diff (recorded-derived)m35575     

Consumption of fuelwood, 1980–2020 (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland40503250327033003450404044004600
Iceland        
Norway21102300235023502350410053006100
Sweden4650800095201080012000147501820022100
Nordic countries1081013550151401645017800228902790032800
Belgium* 550590630680640740800
Denmark26085011001100110120014001600
France 24800257602744029600268003040035000
Germany30005000600065006970750090007290
Greece* 1346140015301640156018001960
Ireland* 50535660586772
Italy*34563269350037203990380043834768
Netherlands*185190200210225220250277
Portugal* 598640680730694800872
Spain21533020317133303496362443495219
United Kingdom* 255273290310296342372
European Union3665339928427274548647811463925353158230
Austria42035336540055005600560058006000
Switzerland9841011112811401300114014001550
Central Europe51876347652866406900674072007550
Bulgaria* 1521129012901290138013801380
Czech Republic12901301117011601150120011901180
Hungary*24002400203620362036217021702170
Poland19172790230023502370250025502570
Romania* 2579218721872187233223322332
Slovakia* 480407407407434434434
East Europe1018711071939094309440100161005610066
Albania 4470395028002000421038503300
Bosnia & Herzegovina* 631631631631631631631
Croatia* 643110815001519110815001519
Cyprus 15171820171820
Israel 13141618141618
FYR Macedonia* 316316316316316316316
Malta 0000000
Serbia & Montenegro* 1578157815781578157815781578
Slovenia* 194200200200200200200
Turkey*1760210399146151551616417146151551616417
South-East Europe2546218259224292257522699226892362523999
Estonia* 414414414414414414414
Latvia* 1610200025003000200025003000
Lithuania* 1146172623072088172623072088
Baltic countries31703170414052215502414052215502
EUROPE9146992325100354105802110152112867127533138147

Notes: 1) * = Estimate (see text)
2) For countries without data for 1980 it has been assumed that the quantity was the same as in 1990


Consumption of primary processing residues for energy (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland32302800260026002600270027002700
Iceland        
Norway700750800850900125016501700
Sweden25002410240024002500270028003000
Nordic countries64305960580058506000665071507400
Belgium* 370479579618506635793
Denmark300363330330330419469579
France 2500340043005000370049006000
Germany23003300450055005520450055007076
Greece* 117151183196160201251
Ireland* 132170206221181227203
Italy* 781101012191306107013401675
Netherlands* 125162195209171215268
Portugal* 6828821064114093411701462
Spain1851056110811641224126815201824
United Kingdom* 5246788178767109001123
European Union80169950128701555716640136191707721254
Austria2460387322533003350330033753440
Switzerland151200200320390390660700
Central Europe26113387342536203740369040354140
Bulgaria* 128109120124112121126
Czech Republic10001000900900900910910910
Hungary 251214236243219258246
Poland152798379396210218229701047
Romania* 607518570588530575596
Slovakia* 120102113116105114118
East Europe36333089263629012992269829483043
Albania        
Cyprus        
Israel        
Former Yugoslavia 1108116212211284133015951914
Malta        
Turkey 572600630663687823988
South-East Europe16801680176218511947201724182902
Estonia        
Latvia        
Lithuania        
Baltic countries00000000
EUROPE2237024066264932977931319286743362838739

Consumption of secondary processing residues for energy (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland100100100100100120120120
Iceland        
Norway180200210210210300355360
Sweden15001600130014001600170017001800
Nordic countries17801900161017101910212021752280
Denmark400296296296296376490500
France 1500205025503000320034003600
Germany46005500600070008000600070008000
Netherlands 250250250250250250250
Spain36128144153159165198237
Other EU(est) 4468539565606894619070467857
European Union1125412142141351680918599161811838420444
Austria9001000102010401050104010701100
Switzerland24326026030040050010001000
Central Europe11431260128013401450154020702100
Czech Republic200200180180180180180180
Poland763490397481510411485524
Other E. Europe (est) 580485556580497559592
East Europe15431270106212171270108812241296
South-East Europe (est.)209209235250260270323387
Estonia        
Latvia        
Lithuania        
Baltic countries00000000
EUROPE1592916781183222132623489211992417626507

Consumption of recovered wood products for energy (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland1150920900900900100010001000
Iceland        
Norway051020302007001000
Sweden000050015010001000
Nordic conutries11509259109201430135027003000
Denmark50100100100100200400600
France 2700390051006000460065008000
Germany 1500300040005000400060008000
Other EU (est.) 4186681089601080085701255816159
European Union54368486138101816021900173702545832759
Austria9001000105011001125110011501200
Switzerland10001100110011001400170020002000
Central Europe19002100215022002525280031503200
Poland264250260270290270280300
Other east Europe (est.) 560580600650600630670
East Europe824810840870940870910970
South-East Europe (est.)985985141017702140179025803190
Estonia        
Latvia        
Lithuania        
Baltic countries00000000
EUROPE1029513306191202392028935241803479843119

Consumption of pulp and paper industry residues (wood and bark) for energy (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland19003000310031003100320032003200
Iceland        
Norway500500550560600650700800
Sweden34505400540054005400550058006500
Nordic countries585089009050906091009350970010500
France 1800225027003600270036004300
Germany 400400400400400400400
Greece        
Ireland        
Italy        
Netherlands        
Portugal 70070070080080010001200
Spain118070073577281084010081210
United Kingdom        
European Union40803600408545725610474060087110
Austria40146180190195190200205
Switzerland405060707070100100
Central Europe80196240260265260300305
Bulgaria        
Czech Republic        
Hungary        
Poland878595110110110120120
Romania        
Slovakia        
East Europe878595110110110120120
Albania        
Bosnia & Herzegovina        
Croatia        
Cyprus        
Israel        
FYR Macedonia        
Malta        
Serbia & Montenegro        
Slovenia        
Turkey        
South-East Europe00000000
Estonia        
Latvia        
Lithuania        
Baltic countries00000000
EUROPE1009712781134701400215085144601612818035

Consumption of wood for energy, excl. liquors (1000 m3)
  Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Finland104301007099701000010150110601142011620
Iceland00000000
Norway34903755392039904090650087059960
Sweden1210017410186202000022000248002950034400
Nordic countries2602031235325103399036240423604962555980
Belgium920920106912091298114613751593
Denmark1010160918261826836219527593279
France3060033300373604209047200410004880056900
Germany1150015700199002340025890224002790030766
Greece14631463159117131836172020012211
Ireland182182223262281239294275
Italy42374050451049395296487057236443
Netherlands560565612655684641715795
Portugal19801980222224442670242829703534
Spain35544904515854195689589770758490
United Kingdom94339433131561662718880157662084625511
European Union (12)65439741068762710058411056098302120458139797
Austria850310669108751113011320112301159511945
Switzerland24182621274829303560380051605350
Central Europe1092113290136231406014880150301675517295
Bulgaria16491649139914101414149215011506
Czech Republic24902501225022402230229022802270
Hungary26512651225022722279238924282416
Poland45584598384541734301411344054561
Romania31863186270527572775286229072928
Slovakia17401740157416761753163617371814
East Europe1627416325140231452814752147821525815495
Albania44704470395028002000421038503300
Bosnia & Herzegovina631631631631631631631631
Croatia643643110815001519110815001519
Cyprus1515171820171820
Israel1313141618141618
FYR Macedonia14241424147815371600164619112230
Malta00000000
Serbia & Montenegro15781578157815781578157815781578
Slovenia194194200200200200200200
Turkey1817410971152151614617080153021633917405
South-East Europe2833621133258362644627046267662894630478
Estonia414414414414414414414414
Latvia16101610200025003000200025003000
Lithuania11461146172623072088172623072088
Baltic countries31703170414052215502414052215502
EUROPE150160159259177759194829208980201380236263264547

Wood equivalent of energy from pulping liquors (1000 m3)
 Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Nordic countries2355028000288402944030050288402983031300
European union1838012740148601539015930153901663017690
Central Europe23302470247024702470247026802880
East Europe44504450525055605870556058706490
South-East Europe12601410152015701600157016301720
Baltic countries00000000
EUROPE4997049070529405443055920538305664060080

Total wood for energy (incl. liquors)
(1000 m3)
 Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Nordic countries4957059235613506343066290712007945587280
European union8381986846102487115974126490113692137088157487
Central Europe1325115760160931653017350175001943520175
East Europe2072420775192732008820622203422112821985
South-East Europe2959622543273562801628646283363057632198
Baltic countries31703170414052215502414052215502
EUROPE200130208329230699249259264900255210292903324627

Total wood for energy (incl. liquors)
(% of total Europe)
 Low scenarioHigh scenario
 19801990200020102020200020102020
Nordic countries24.828.426.625.425.027.927.126.9
European union41.941.744.446.547.844.546.848.5
Central Europe6.67.67.06.66.56.96.66.2
East Europe10.410.08.48.17.88.07.26.8
South-East Europe14.810.811.911.210.811.110.49.9
Baltic countries1.61.51.82.12.11.61.81.7
EUROPE100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

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