ANNEX (Contd.)

ANNEX L
Bangladesh Livestock Industry Status in Relation to Fodder Supply and to Consumption of Animal Products.

James R. Dickey and Emdadul Huque

Winrock/BARC

September 16, 1985.

Introduction

The present and future status of the livestock industry has been the topic of many discussion meetings and review papers. While it is generally agreed that very little hard data are available for prediction with confidence a considerable number of estimates of the statistics are available for scrutiny. The authors of this paper have so scrutinized the statistics presented in previous publications, discussed these with other animal scientists and subsequently used the resulting parameters to formulate their view of the present and future prospects of the livestock industry.

Nutrient supply for the livestock and the demand on the animal products will both influence the livestock industry future and will determine what production practices can be economical. Anticipation of the production trend and potential is essential for effective planning for alternatives such as: alternative feed supplies; alternative draft power supply; alternative meat/milk/egg supply, etc. Various alternatives are discussed and opinions shared in the following paragraphs, but the reader should evaluate each projection in light of the input data, individual baises and potential for new technology development. Open discussion, critique and suggestions are requested to improve the information here collected.

Present Productivity

While productivity of livestock and poultry is consistantly reported to be very low in Bangladesh due mainly to poor nutrition it does produce a substantial quantity of high protein good and supplies the major source of draft power as well as much of the domestic fuel in the form of dung.

One can see from Table I that livestock only accounts for 5.0 of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 38.6% for crops, however, it should be noted that only the value of meat, milk, eggs and possible skins are included in the livestock portion of GDP. There are several other very valuable products of livestock which are not counted in the GDP but are none-the-less extremely important to the Bangladesh national economy.

The Bangladesh livestock industry is made up mainly of cattle, buffalo, goats, sheep, chickens and ducks. The products from these species are shown in Table II. While one tends to think only of the food products, meat, milk (cattle & Buffalo) and eggs, other very important animal products in Bangladesh are draft power, dung, hides and possibly goat milk (Wallace, 1985). When the value of these is added to food the portion of GDP nearly doubles.

To most effectively plan research or development activities it is essential to know the relative importance of these products and the natural resources of feed and fodder necessary for their production. With this goal in mind the following tables of statistics, calculations and some estimates are presented with brief discussion to create “food for though” Prices used for estimating values are as current and accurate as was practical to collect on a short informal basis. It should be noted that no attempt was made to evaluate the human resource of management and labor of which women contribute significantly (Wallace, 1985).

Table III presents the number of livestock and poultry in Bangladesh along with the food produced by each species. To facilitate calculations and comparisons all animal numbers were converted to Animal Units (A.U.) equal to 200 kilograms of liveweight. To get one total for food production, the milk and eggs were converted to a meat equivalent basis for summation with true meat production. The total of 18,650 A.U. is broken down by percent of animal biomass maintained for each species. This can be compared with the last column where percent of the total food produced by each species is listed. As you see, both cattle and buffalo produce only 60% and 2% of the food with 88% and 4% of the animal biomass, respectively. While, the small ruminants and poultry produce a total of 38% of the food with 8% of the animal biomass. Therefore, if one stopped at this point he would probably conclude that poultry and small ruminants are much more efficient than the large ruminants. The unquantified contribution of the goats in the form of milk (Wallace, 1985) would increase this efficiency if measured.

Table I.

Livestock and Poultry Share of Bangladesh GDP in 1982–83 ¹

¹ Source: 1983–84 Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh. B.B.S.

Table II

Bangladesh Livestock Industry Major Products

Table III. Animal Population in terms of Animal Units (AU) ¹ and Productivity of Food (1982–83)

Source: BBS, 1983a for Animal Numbers; BBS 1983b and BBS 1985 for yield

Note: Due to wide differences in published statistics, they are often rounded and averaged.

¹ A.U. = 200 kg. Live Animal Weight. (Average weight for all ages of each species was assumed as follows: Cattle=150kg; Buffalo=262kg; Goats & Sheep=20kg; Chickins=1.0kg and Duck=1.5kg).

² % Meat Yield=weight of carcass meat divided by live animal biomass
(A.U.S. × 200 kg) for the species × Dressing %.

³ % Milk-Egg Yield=weight of meat equivalent of milk and eggs divided by live animal biomass (A.U.S. × 200kg) for the species × Dressing %.

⁴ % Protein Food yield=weight of the total meat equivalent (meat, milk and eggs) divided by live animal biomass (A.U.s × 200kg) for the species × Dressing %.

⁵ One Kilogram meat equivalent=4.6 kilograms of milk of 18.7 chicken eggs or 12.5 duck eggs. Conversion of actual milk and egg yield to approximate meat equivalent yield was based on of relative percentage protein.

Before we accept such a conclusion let us look at the other products of these animals and fix an estimated value to each for a common comparison among all products as given in Table IV. The food value was calculated at TK. 30/kg of beef meat; TK. 50/kg of Mutton and Poultry meat; Tk. 10/kg of Milk; 2/egg; hides and skins were calculated at the current price reported in The New Nation Daily; draft cultivation was calculated at Tk. 200/acre cultivated (10% inflation of estimate by Gill 1983); draft transportation was assumed to be 30% of total draft power or 43% of cultivation; dung for fertilizer was valued at Tk. 5 per kg of chemical fertilizer equivalent for 20 kgs per ton of half the production; and dung for fuel was valued at one taka per kg dry weight of 25% of the production. The value of each product and each species is shown as a total and then as a percent of total production value and as a percent of the GDP.

Next the data calculated in Tables III and IV are summarized in Table V. As can be seen in Table V the food products make up only 55% of the total value of animal products, dung 22%, draft power 21% and hides 2.1%. Looking at the column before the last in Table IV we find now that cattle and buffalo are producing 73.3% and 3.2%, respectively, of the total value compared to 23.5% from the small ruminants and poultry. There is still a slight efficiency advantage for the small ruminants and poultry over the cattle and buffalo when calculated on the basis of production per unit of animal biomass maintained.

Table IV. Value of Food and Other Livestock Products in Bangladesh Projected to 1985. ¹

¹ See text for explanation of calculations and source of parameters used.

Table V. Estimated Relative Value of Animal Products in Bangladesh¹

¹ Estimates calculated in tables III and IV by author. These are slightly different from the relative proportions which can be checked by inflating the available values in the BBS 1985 for years 1980–81 page 786–787.

We must now look at the feed and fodder availability and the requirements of each animal species for particular feed types. Table VI gives an estimate of the major groups of feedstuff available in Bangladesh adapted from Madamba, 1985 expressed in terms of Dry Matter (DM), Total Digestable Nutrients (TDN), and Digestable Crude Protein (DCP). The sources of the Green Forage reported by Madamba is given in Table VII. These estimates are higher than those by Tareque, 1985, but the total is within the same magnitude when compared to the demand. Both estimates were calculated from the 1981 Bangladesh Statistics using slightly different assumptions and parameters. Both Madamba and Tareque estimate high loss of forage for fuel, construction and soil improvement. The loss estimate of 5,000,000 Tons of straw reported in Table VI is based on population need for fuel using parameters reported by Islam 1980. Other losses are assumed to be accounted for in the original Madamba straw estimate which is much below that of Tareque.

In addition to the dry matter calculations it is important to compare the TDN and DCP available from each type feed. Only the large and small ruminants can use large quantities of roughage, while the poultry require primarily a concentrate diet which provides a high percentage of high quality energy and protein. As can be seen in Table VI only 6% of the total DM available comes from concentrates, therefore this may be an important constraint to increasing poultry production. The negative aspects of competition for human foods must be considered when searching for sources of poultry feed.

Table VI : Estimated Nutrient Components of Animal Feed & Fodder Supply in Bangladesh Projected to 1985. (000 Tons)

¹ Estimate of Straw use as fuel was projected to 1985 from energy parameters given in two Bangladesh energy studies (Islam, 1980 and Hans Helssuniab,1983) and land use and population change from the Bangladesh Statistical Yearbook 1983–84.
² Percentage TDN and DCP are conservative estimates based on three publications (Mahatab, 1982; Kearl, 1982; and Morrison, 1956) for the major components of each feed classification.
³ This estimate for straw taken from BBS 1983 is much lower than total available estimated by Tareque 1985, but semilar to total consumption estimate by Tareque after loss.

Source: Madambe, 1985 and BBS 1982–83.

Table VII. Estimated Harvestable Weed Growth in Bangladesh in 1982.

Source: Madamba, 1985.

Before going to the specific requirements for livestock let us look at Table VIII to see the source of these feedstuffs and the importance of the cultivated crop land to this supply. Looking at the bottom of the table we see that 87% of all the animal feeds of Bangladesh comes from cultivated land. Only 13% comes from non-cultivated land such as embankments, road sides, forest, and low land which is usually used in common, therefore not practically available for managed forage production. It should be noted that this green roughage obtained from the non-cultivated land is very important because of its higher quality in digestibility and protein content (as compared to straw). These green grasses tend to balance the diets of the ruminants which are eating a high proportion of dry straw. It also provides much of the grazing-browse needs of small ruminants (Goats and Sheep).

Total requirements of the animal population in terms of DM, TDN and DCP must be known to judge the adequacy of the feed supply. Table IX presents these estimates as calculated from the number of livestock in Bangladesh and the nutritive requirements needed for each species as indicated in Mahatab, 1982 and Tareque, 1985. These requirements are calculated for maintenance of the typically small Bangladesh animals, plus the low level of milk and egg production, and draft power production. Therefore, this low level of nutrition could only be expected to support the present production, not high level production. For comparison, theoritically it can be estimated that doubling the livestock production of Bangladesh (a level not uncommon in many countries) would raise nutrient demand by approxmately 50%.)

Cattle and buffalo normally consume only about 2.5% of their body weight in DM per day compared to 4% for goats and sheep and almost 10% for poultry. However, given the low quality forage available it is considered more reasonable to assume DM consumption at 2.0%, 3.5% and 10%, respectively for large ruminants, small ruminants and poultry demand a higher proportion of the nutrients than may be expected. Furthermore, they require even a higher proportion of the TDN and DCP as shown in Table IX under percent of total TDN and DCP required for goats and sheep and for poultry. Refering back to Table III we see that while goats and sheep make up only 5% of the total animal biomass they require about 10% of the TDN and DCP, while poultry makes up only 3.0% of the animal biomass and requires 15% of the TDN and 27% of the DCP requirements.

Table VIII. Source and Type of Feed and Fodder (000 Tons Dry Matter)¹

¹ Most statistics were reported as air dry weight, or 90% DM, which has been converted here to 100% DM.

Table IX. Annual Nutrient Requirement for Bangladesh Domestic Animal Population of 18,600,000 Animal Units ¹ (Local Production Level in 1985).

¹ A.U. = 200 kg. Live Animal weight.

² Annual Consumption is calculated as a percent of weight of live animal biomass per day at the following rate for each species: Cattle and Buffalo 2.0%; Goats and Sheep 3.5% and Poultry 10.0%.

Now when we reconsider our earlier assumption that small ruminants and poultry were more efficient than large ruminants we have our choice to reverse in favor of the large ruminants. That is, according to Table IV and IX the cattle and buffalo produce 76.5% of the total value with 74% of the TDN and 64% of the DCP, the goats and sheep produced 7.3% of the value with approximately 10% of both TDN and DCP; while poultry produced 16.2% of the value with 15% of the TDN and 27% of the DCP. The added value of draft power and dung fuel is a great advantage of cattle and buffalo plus the fact that they can utilize the major available feed source, low quality forage.

These comparisons are not made to promote one species or the other, rather, they are made to point out the competition for the limited feed resources and to remind us of the special requirements of some speices. The farmers will decide what species are most advantageous for him based on his feed supply and the products he values most from those animals. Just as the farmer does, we researchers must consider all factors when measuring cost and benefits in an attempt to identify more profitable livestock production methods.

The demand for forage is not only from livestock, but also from other uses such as fuel, building material and soil improvement. Assuming that the national statistics report straw available after field decomposition losses and possibly some other uses, the following estimates of straw used as fuel were calculated and presented in Table X. Based on a study of fuel use in Bangladesh by Islam 1980, it was estimated that 30 to 40% of the straw is presently used for fuel. Eventhough increased agricultural production will also mean increased straw production, the fuel demand is expected to grow faster than the supply, therefore reduring the effective feed supply for animals.

Table X. Reported Sources of Domestic Fuel for Bangladesh in 1973–74 and Projected Supply and Demand for 1985, 1990 and 2000 Based on Present Growth Rates of Production and Population: ¹

¹ Growth Rates used: Production = 1.6% and Population = 2.2%

² Livestock numbers and therefore dung availability is assumed to be static due to limited Feedstuff.

³ Source of 1973–74 data: Islam, 1980.

Now that we have discussed the effective feed supply and the demand let us look at the two together in Table XI. Using the total estimated nutrients available and the total requirements we see that only 87% of the DM requirement is met, 86% of the TDN and only 52% of the DCP, given the relatively low forage loss estimated in Table VI. Tareque 1985 estimates that as much as 48% of the feedstuff supply is not utilized, while Madamba, 1985 estimates a loss of 40%. If these loss estimates are used, the animals are getting only 51 to 59 of their required TDN and only 25 to 32% of DCP. If these data are correct one must accept that requirement is greater than the nutrient supply source, which is likely to result in zero or negative herd growth with the increasing demand for forage as fuel.

What are the actual facts and what can be done to improve the situation ? Does the animal population actually require the nutrients determined by many nutrition experiments? Are there as many animals as stated in the statistics? Is feed and forage supply and/or quality higher than estimated? Or, is the utilization more efficient than stated? These are some of the questions we need to answer to be able to search for improved management practices for the farmer. The recent Census may find fewer animals than projected…??

Table XI. Bangladesh Feed and Fodder Nutrient Supply and Demand Balance Projected to 1985.

¹ Consumption of Woody Plants, insects and kitchen waste may help the Balance.

² Both Fareque 1985 and Madamba 1985 estimate higher losses, which would result in TDN supply of only 51 to 59% and DCP only 28 to 32% of the above demond.

Returning to the value of the total livestock production and how it relates to the feedstuff Table XII gives the gross return credited to each animal product for each kilogram of feedstuff available for consumption. The total gross return for each kilogram of feedstuff is only Tk. 1.6 which is only slightly more than the prices quoted in the markets for fuel.

Is this the true relative value? Can the farmer sell his straw for nearly as much as it's worth to feed his livestock? These are questions we must research with the farmers in the Farming Systems Research Program.

While the low productivity of livestock is still apparent and the feedstuff is inadequate, we find that livestock production makes up a larger portion of the GDP than is conventionally reported. Bernsten, R. (1983) states that the livestock contribution to total GDP of developing countries is probably underestimated because of difficulty of estimating animal traction and manure value. If the dung used for fuel and fertilizer and the draft power value were counted as a part of the total Bangladesh GDP, and if they were both credited to livestock this “Non-conventional Breakdown of GDP” would be as shown in Table XIII. Giving full credit to all livestock products the sector makes up 9.0% of the GDP compared with the normally reported 5.0%.

Looking at livestock productivity per unit area presents a completely different picture. When only meat production per hectare is the measure, Bangladesh is equal to or higher than many developed countries including the U.S.A. If the other products, which are not normally utilized in the developed countries are counted the total productivity per unit land would be relatively high.

Regardless of how the Bangladesh Livestock Industry compares with others, We as researchers are interested in maximizing the productive value of livestock for the particular farming conditions of your country. First, where is the greatest potential for increase?

Table XII. Gross Return to Feed & Fodder Fed to Bangladesh Livestock (Tk/kg.)

Table XIII. Non-Conventional GDP Breakdown Compared to Standard.

Supply and Demand Projections to the year 2000

Three different interdependent factors will be briefly mentioned here to create points for discussion and possibly research. These three factors are animal feedstuff resources; cattle herd productivity and dynamics; and demand for animal products as the population increases. While all species of livestock and poultry are included in the discussions, special attention is given to cattle since they make up almost 90% of the animal biomass and produce three quarters of the total value of animal products.

First, the supply of feed and fodder for livestock use has been projected to 1990 and 2000 (Table XIV and XV) based on crop production increases resulting in more straw, but leaving less green weeds, etc; and the greater use of straw for fuel as the population increases. The net results is a slight decrease in feed supply and the component nutrients to the year 2000. Even the promotion of straw treatment of half the available straw would not increase the nutrents sufficiently as shown in Table XVI to meet the requirements of the present herd as given in Table IX. The slightly higher proportion of concentrate feeds available as grain production (by-products) increases may tend to allow a continued increase in poultry numbers, but at the expense of ruminants which will be left with a lower quality ration. It should be noted that the “Potential Unconventional Feedstuff Sources” listed by Huque, 1985 (Unpublished BARC Report) are mostly included in “Green Forage” estimates of this paper. Therefore, efforts to increase the forage supply are not expected to change the shortage substantially.

Table XIV: Estimated Nutrient Components of Animal Feed & Fodder Supply in Bangladesh Projected to 1990. (000 Tons)

Table XV : Estimated Nutrient Components of Animal Feed & Fodder Supply in Bangladesh Projected to 2000. (000 Tons)

Table XVI : Possible Nutrient Components of Animal Feed & Fodder Supply in Bangladesh if 50% of straw is treated with Urea by 1990. (000 Tons)

¹ The higher percentage TDN and DCP in based on the following treatment of half the straw fed in Bangladesh by 1990: 50 gm urea/litre water/kg Dry Straw.

Second, let us look at the productivity and dynamics of the cattle herd. Table XVII gives a list of production parameters estimated from data reported by Jabbar and Green 1983. While additional data and estimates would strengthen the following calculations, these estimates compare favorably with cattle production parameters from similar environments.

Using the herd composition data presented in Table XVIII and the above mentioned production and disposal parameters it is estimated that the adult cow herd is not numerous enough to produce sufficient replacements to maintain the herd numbers. Given this condition one must assume that one of two things will happen:

1. The herd will tend to deminish in numbers, or

2. Animals must be constantly introduced from outside to maintain the herd and offtake rate.

Again, the recent census to be reported soon should shed light on this question. And, there is a need to study the international movement and price of cattle along the Bangladesh borders.

Table XVII: Bangladesh Cattle Production Parameters Quoted and/or Calculated from Data Presented by Jabbar and Green 1983.

Production Trait	Estimated Parameter
Birth Rate	53 to 62%
Calf Mortality (< yrs)	22%
Young Cattle Mortality (1–3 yrs)	14%
Adult Mortality (> 3 yrs)	8%
Total Herd Mortality ()	11%
Average Culling or Market Age (Both sexes)	7 to 8 yrs. (Range 3 to > 16 yrs)
Growth Rate	? (Probably < 100 gms/day)

Table XVIII : Estimated Composition of the 1985 Cattle Herd in Bangladesh Projected from the 1977 BBS Census.

Source: BBS 1981 (1977 Census).

Now, thirdly, how will the demand for animal products be in the future compared with the probable supply? The simple answer to this is that demand will exceed all supplies even at the present deficient level of consumption. Given the human population growth; the need and trend to increase the intensity of cultivated land; and the shortage of feedstuff the probable levels of supply are presented in Table XIX. By the year 2000 the presently low levels of per capita supply will be reduced by 29% for meat 38% for milk and 7% for eggs. Availability of draught power per acre cultivated will be reduced by 25%.

Unless significant improvements in nutrient supply and animal health care delivery are found to be economically feasible at the farm level these predictions should be considered seriously. On the other hand the next section will discuss some of the areas which may offer the greatest potential for identifying the solutions to these constraints.

Potential for Increased Production and Productivity

Figure I list the subject areas of nutrition, health, management and selection in that order of importance. The first three can be classified as environmental factors and the last as genetic. Since much of this paper has been devoted to classifying and quantifying resources to be able to identify potential areas of improvement, we should now look at the major reasons for variation in individual animal production. Looking at the two big catagories of environment and genetic Figure I shows the relative importance of the two in ideal conditions, and next, in high stress conditions such as in Bangladesh. Under the ideal conditions environment accounts for at least 60 to 80% of the variation of most production tracts, while the genetic influence is no more than 20 to 40%. The environmental effects increase to 85 to 95% under stress conditions and genetics accounts for only 5 to 15%. Therefore, one should conclude that our major efforts in livestock research should be in the fields of nutrition, health and management. Only after these environmental conditions are significantly improved such as may be found on a research station or an occasional urban area farm should genetic change be considered. For most cases of FSR the environmental factors should get most of the attention.

Table XIX. Predcition of Livestock Numbers, Per Capita Production and Per Cultivated Area Draught Animal Availability for 1985, 1990 and 2000.

Assumptions:

1. Cattle and Buffalo numbers will reduce to more nearly fit the forage supply (90% in 1990 and 85% in 2000)

2. Goats and Sheep will change very little or may increase slightly.

3. Poultry will increase in proportion to by-product supply which should be similar to the 1.6% crop production growth.

4. Human population: 1985 ≃ 100,000,000
   1990 ≃ 109,000,000
   2000 ≃ 136,000,000.

5. A.U. = Animal Units (200 kg of live animal biomass).

6. Cultivated acres will increase at an annual rate of 0.9%.

Table list the potential areas of research to reduce the imbalance of the supply and demand of animal feed and fodder. As you can see they are nearly all related directly to cropping practices to either increase or improve the forage resulting as a residue to the major crop production of food or cash product. The livestock and crop scientists must work together to measure the value of both crop and livestock management changes to the production of each component.

In Bangladesh as in most other countries crop research has received much more attention than livestock research, especially at the farmer's level. The livestock researchers have a big challenge to make up for lost time, however, since the benefits will be mutual, all researchers should be challenged to include both crop and livestock components in their FSR to help identify the total economic effect of any intervention of either component.

We in the livestock field welcome this challenge and the cooperation with the crop scientists.

Figure I. Relative Importance of Subject for Increasing Animal Productivity.

Table XX. Potential Areas of Research to Reduce Imbalance of Supply and Demand of Animal Feed and Fodder

REFERENCES

BBS, 1981. Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dacca.

Bernsten R.H. Fitzhugh, and H. Knipschecr, 1983. Livestock in Farming Systems Research. Third Annual Farming Systems Symposum, Kansas State University.

Tareque, A.M.M. 1985. Personal communication, BAU, Mymensingh.

Mahatab, S.N., et al, 1982. Average Chemical Composition and Nutritive Value of Livestock Feeds. Animal Nutrition Section, LRI, DLS, Mohakhali, Dhaka-12.

Jabbar, M.A. and DAG Green, 1983. The Status and Potential of Livestock within the Context of Agricultural Development Policy in Bangladesh, Department of Agricultural Economics, Aberystwyth, Adran Economey Amaethyddol. The University College of Wales.

Gill, Gerard J. 1983. Mechanised Land Preparation, Productivity and Employment in Bangladesh. The Journal of Development Studies. Vol 19. No. 3.

Madamba, J.C. 1985. Working Paper. Employment in the Livestock Sector. ADE/GOB Framework Studies for the Third Five-Year Plan.

A.D.B. 1984. Bangladesh Second Livestock Development Project. GOB and Asian Development Bank.

Choudhury, S.S., et al. 1984. Preliminary Analysis of Livestock Data, Fram Cropping Systems Research Sites. BJRI, Dhaka.

Fazle Wahed, A.B.M. 1985. A glimpse of Livestock scene in Bangladesh. Association of Animal Scientist of Bangladesh.

BBS 1983a Pocket Book

BBS 1983b Monthly Economic Situation of Bangladesh March 1983.

BBS 1983–4 Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics of Bangladesh 1985.

BBS 1983–4 Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh. 1985.

ANNEX M
LABORATORY SCALE EXPERIMENTAL FEED MILL

Functions:

1. Reprocess agricultural commodities and feedstuffs
2. Grind
3. Sieve
4. Mix
5. Pretreat
6. Extrude/pelletize/compact feeds
7. Cool/freeze/dry pellets
8. Top dress
9. Screen to size
10. Package
11. Store finished feeds
12. Pasteurize wet meats

Type of feeds:

1. Wet extruded pellets (3, 5, 7, 9 mm)
2. Semi-moist extruded pellets (3, 4, 6, 8 mm)
3. Cold compacted pellets (2, 4, 6, 8 mm)
4. Steam-treated compacted pellets (2, 4, 6, 8 mm)
5. Crumbles (from 3 and 4 above)
6. Dravo rolled pellets (3, 5, 7, 9 mm)
7. Flake feeds
8. Micro-pulverized larval feeds (50 – 70 micron, 70 – 100 micron, 100 – 150 micron)