FORESTRY SECTOR IN 2020

In Zambia, forests serve different sections of society in various ways. Local people have always considered the forests as a free resource, which they can exploit for their daily needs for wood-fuel, materials for shelter and food, for their soil and water protection, and for farmland.

The State has viewed forests as a national property to supply society with wood and generate revenue. Industrial entrepreneurs see it as a source of raw materials for profit. For the hydro-electricity supply, forests are a water catchment area. Forestry institutions have focussed on industrial plantations while neglecting the potential of indigenous forests. Ecologists regard forests as a reservoir of biodiversity habitat, subject to welcome international pressures to control global warming and conserve biodiversity. Some of these interests are complementary but others are conflicting

Zambia is a diverse country with land assets encompassing arable land, forests, wildlife and wetlands. Estimates of national land use patterns have been quoted in a number of publications. However, as there has been no countrywide inventories since the 1960s, these estimates, particularly of the land cover are not very reliable. The estimated land area under good forest cover is about 44.6 million hectares or 60 % of the country’s total land area. The forests are located in the forest reserves, game management areas, national parks and customary land as shown in table 3.1 below.

Table 3.1: Land cover distribution in Zambia, 1992

Zambia lacks up to date forest resources inventories. The last national inventory was done in the 1960s. Current figures on forest cover and growing stock are based on estimates and assumptions of what has changed over the last 40 years. Although the area under forest reserve is known, the change in condition and extent of forest cover, affected by settlement, woodcutting and agriculture, is not well known. Reliability for all current figures is, therefore, low. Even the estimated deforestation rate of 0.5% or 300,000 ha per year is also probably low or questionable in present conditions.

The forest reserves cover about 7.1 million ha which include 50,000 ha of eucalyptus (20%) and pine (80%) plantations. Forest reserves are divided into two major categories: the national and local forest reserves. These forests are functionally categorised as:

Production forests which are managed for the present and future production of forestry goods and services for social and economical development. This includes the provision of raw materials for small and large scale industries, fuel-wood, charcoal and agriculture ;

Protection forests which are maintained as conservation areas for environmental stability. Mainly protects water catchment areas, species ecology, wildlife, cultural sites and soil erosion control.

In areas where there is population pressure and demand for additional agricultural land is high, encroachment into the forest reserves has occurred, but no statistical figures on the extent of the encroachment are available.

The management of natural forests is critical. The use of natural regeneration and silvicultural techniques can provide a high net economic return. Plantations, in comparison, have drawbacks, especially the establishment costs for plantations are high and financial returns are delayed for 10-20 years after planting.

In Zambia, plantations have been established since the 1960s to supplement the supply of timber from indigenous forests. The size of these plantations, unfortunately, has been declining every year as there are no deliberate replanting programmes.

According to Alajarvi (1996), the mean annual growth of pine has been 14.4 m³/ha/annum and that of eucalyptus 18.6 m³/ha/annum. The rotation periods have varied from 15 to 25 years. The average stand volume in pine and eucalyptus plantations of 25 years is about 280 m³/ha and 300 m³/ha, respectively.

Currently, ZAFFICO is harvesting about 350,000 m³/annum that means that about 1,000 ha is cleared each year, assuming that no thinnings are done.

The Forestry Department has about 7,000 ha of plantations, which are distributed into several Provinces. In addition, it has been estimated that the private sector owns about 3,000 ha of plantations. Tree planting has not been an attractive business venture for the private sector in the country.

The pressure on the forest resources has been heavy. The most critical situation is found near big towns and along the main roads. Wood-fuel is still the most common energy source for most households, creating intense pressure on areas close to towns. With increased population, the demand for food is greater and areas under cultivation have expanded. The heavily populated Provinces of Lusaka, Central and Copperbelt have had the biggest deforestation rates, (Chidumayo, 1996a).

According to Alajarvi (1996), Table 3.2 presents projections for the forest area during the 1996 – 2016 period. This indicates that deforestation will take place on land under customary law. National Parks and Forest Reserves have traditionally been and will be better protected than traditional land.

Table 3.2: Forest and the land cover, 1996 – 2016, Current trends in Million Hectares

It is generally observed that Zambia still has good amounts of the forest resources, although accurate information on the extent of the resource is lacking. It is also generally observed and agreed that the resource is under serious threat mainly from the expanding agricultural land and the indiscriminate cutting for timber and wood-fuel.

In this paper, two country scenarios have been used to give the future outlook of the forest resource situation in the country using various assumptions on the factors. That is the current trends in wood demand and supply, and the ZFAP scenario.

Table 3.2.1a: Annual Demand of Wood by Periods in Million M3

Table 3.2.1b: Annual Demand of Wood by Periods in Million M3 (ZFAP Scenario)

This scenario indicates substantial increase in demand for wood if the current trends continue. The objective under the ZFAP scenario is to limit consumption through various interventions such as increasing charcoal production efficiency by 8%, and reducing consumption of wood by 20% as well as promotion of producing value added forest products to ensure optimal financial returns on sales and reduced exploitation of forest resources.

According to ZFAP (1998), the wood supply situations between 1996 and 2016 will be as outlined in the following tables 3.2.2a and 3.2.2b.

Table 3.2.2a: Cord-wood supply in Million M3 / Annum (Current Trends)

Table 3.2.2b: Cord-wood supply in Million M3 (ZFAP Scenario)

The 1996 cordwood supply level of 48.3 million cubic metres is expected to decrease to 42.5 million cubic metres in the year 2016 under the current trends due to deforestation, degradation and lack of management.

Under the ZFAP scenario, the annual cordwood supply is expected to increase to 61.3 million cubic metres by 2016 because of intensified forest management activities.

According to Alajarvi (1996), the estimates of wood supply and demand balance for the country have been determined for the two alternatives, the current trends and the ZFAP Scenario. The balance of these two cases is as shown in the following tables 3.2.1a and 3.2.1b.

Table 3.3.1a: Annual Cord-wood Supply and Balance in Million m³/Annum,

(Current Trends)

Table 3.3.1b: Annual Cord-wood Supply and Balance in Million m³/Annum,

(ZFAP Scenario)

Source: Algarve, 1996.

Theoretically, there are sufficient forest resources in Zambia to satisfy the demand, even after 20 years of growth in demand. However, this is not sustainable as the demand depends on supply from protected areas. In addition to this is that the supply and demand is not balanced regionally. The biggest deficits are now and will in future be in Copperbelt, Lusaka and Southern Provinces, whereas the supply is far away, notably in the North-western and Northern Provinces.