Representatives of space agencies reported to the full assembly on future plans and status of the space programmes.
6.1.1 National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA)
In late 1996 NASA / Mission To Planet Earth (MTPE) undertook the first of a planned series of biennial reviews to assess its end-to-end observations/research/data management programme to provide confidence that its planning and programme implementation reflect the highest priority science needs of the US Global Change Research Programme, and are conducted in a cost-effective manner. The review, to be completed in summer 1997 in time to affect the financial year 1999 budget planning, covers all elements of the MTPE programme, including the Earth Observing System (EOS), EOS Data Information System (EOSDIS), mission operations and data analysis, research and analysis, the Pathfinder and small satellite (Earth Probes and Earth Systems Science Pathfinders) elements. Particular attention is being directed at:
new paradigms for EOSDIS, possibly involving a form of federation of data centres and principal investigator responsibilities for value-added product generation;
new approaches to mission/payload selection beyond the missions AM-1, PM-1 and CHEM-1;
incorporation of an instrument "incubator" programme for developing new technology;
re-examination of the CHEM-1 mission and its relationships within the entire MTPE atmospheric chemistry discipline;
the overall programme balance among observations, data and scientific research.
The biennial review is expected to result in a more efficient programme that has the flexibility to respond to changing scientific issues as they emerge, to incorporate new technology as is becomes available, and to reduce the elapsed time from mission approval to launch. At present no decision affecting the EOS-24 measurements commitment has been made, although it is clear that successive instruments may evolve with new technology, as opposed to previous plans to successively launch three series of identical instruments, e.g., Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS).
6.1.2 European Space Agency (ESA)
The European Research Satellite (ERS-1) was terminated at the end of June 1996, but ERS-2 will continue to operate towards the end of the century. The Environmental satellite (ENVISAT) will be launched in the second half of 1999. The Meteorological Operational Weather Satellite (METOP-1) will be launched by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) in 2002, as the first of a series of three satellites to be launched over 15 years. The Earth Explorer missions comprise magnetometry, gravity and ocean circulation, land surface processes and interaction, Earth radiation, atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry and profiling, precipitation and topography. The Earth Explorer missions for gravity and ocean circulation, land surface processes and interaction, Earth radiation and atmospheric dynamics, have been selected for "Phase A" in the context of GCOS missions. The first Earth Explorer Mission, with the emphasis on advancing the understanding of different Earth system processes, will be launched in 2004. The Earth Watch missions will cover coastal zone, polar ice, open ocean, land surface and atmospheric chemistry. The first Earth Watch Mission, addresses the requirements of specific Earth observation application areas, will be launched in 2005. The corresponding Earth Explorer programme proposal will be finalised in autumn 1997. Moreover, there will be a rolling user consultation meetings every 2-3 years. The next user consultation meeting will take place in 1998/1999.
6.1.3 National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA)
NASDA is currently revising the existing draft plan of its long-term Earth observation scenario beyond 2003, in cooperation with the Japanese user community. NASDA intends to make the new draft plan more feasible to implement, and will revise it in early 1998. NASDA's on-going projects are; the second Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS-II), planned in August 1999 to continue the global environment observations, the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), planned in early 2003 to perform regional land observations, and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), planned in November 1997 to carry out diurnal cycle observations of the tropical rainfall. The other small mission/technology demonstration projects include instrument/technical demonstrations on the Exposed Facility Flyer Unit (EFFU) of the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the Space Station as well as the instrument/component demonstrations on the Mission Demonstration Satellites (MDS). Both are part of a series of small satellite projects newly introduced in the revised Japanese Fundamental Space Policy. The Super-conducting Millimeter-wave Limb Emission Spectrometer (SMILES) demonstration, planned in the year 2001 on JEM, and the LIDAR demonstration, planned in the year 2000 on MDS-2 were recently selected. Regarding future missions, based on the existing scenario, NASDA plans the follow-on mission of ADEOS-II expected in 2004, and the start of a new series of the Atmospheric Observing Satellite (ATMOS) for diurnal cycle observations of rainfall, cloud/radiation and atmospheric chemistry expected in 2004 or later. All of the new satellite missions will be decided on an annual basis, depending on the budget situation.
6.1.4 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The implementation of new or improved programmes of the NOAA have been operational (especially regarding continuity) as well as political and policy priorities. Space-based climate data observations are less defensible quantitatively than those of operational meteorological missions. Therefore, NOAA is performing cost/benefit analyses of climate data. The development of new or improved capabilities for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and polar missions will continue to be in danger due to funding changes, i.e., reductions in planning budgets. The traceability of G3OS requirements, like those of future operational meteorology missions, is crucial. The rationale for those requirements shown to be system drivers must be defensible in terms of benefits. In the NOAA National Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) programme, "Phase I" of instrument development and risk reduction is now underway with proposal reviews for several national instrument concepts in progress. The planning date of the first launch is the year 2007. The Integrated Operational Requirements Document (IORD-1) is available to all[3], and has been reviewed internally by NOAA climate scientists in a workshop, in January 1996. This review has also recently been published. Comments on NPOESS IORD requirements, especially comments citing benefits of proposed climate-related observational requirements, are welcome prior to the completion of the early phase of instrument developments.
6.1.5 The Russian Federation has plans for the meteorological METEOR system spacecraft and the Russian satellite series for resource monitoring (RESURS). In the 1970s satellites for the exploration of the Earth's natural resources and for ecological monitoring began to be developed on the basis of METEOR. The objective of this series is the observation and monitoring of natural resources. In further discussions, it was remarked that the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Scanner for Radiation Budget (SCARAB) will be launched in the year 2000.
6.1.6 Prof. Townshend strongly supported the view that the requirements from the G3OS and especially long-term scenarios should be considered by the space agencies. He noted the lack of long-term commitment after the year 2005. CEOS members should be challenged by GOSSP and use its input to define their strategy. The panel attendees agreed that space agencies should commit to the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) projects. Panelists agreed that there is an urgent need to publicise requirements and concerns. In particular a statement from GOSSP, with regard to METOP, should be sent to EUMETSAT[4]. Additionally, the participants were informed that there will be a "Uni-Space" conference in 1999, which has adopted Earth Science themes.
6.1.7 Dr Karpov reminded attendees that, in the light of the upcoming second meeting on the Convention of Climate Change in Kyoto in December 1997, the message of the G3OS should come across clearly to the space agencies.
6.2.1 The Working Group reported that their major concern is to complete the database and maintain its functionality. Therefore, a single and unique updating process by WMO and ESRIN will be guaranteed. At the Database Reconciliation Meeting in January 1997, the database and the manual were reviewed and updated. The draft set of observational requirements were reviewed in February 1997. The WGSAT stressed the importance of completing the updating process for the requirements by the end of May 1997, addressing a list of deficiencies existing in the observational requirements.
6.2.2 The "critical review" analysis method was only applied to WMO requirements. Preliminary results showed unrealistically modest contributions by satellite systems. This result was attributed to the method rather than to the systems. A modification to the method, using "maximum" and "minimum" requirement ranges, resulted in the satellite observations being represented more realistically. This analysis method is still in the approval process of WGSAT.
6.3.1 The WGSAT participants gave the plenary an overview of the review activities related to a selected subset of instrument performances based on user estimates. The user estimates would be guided initially by information provided by space agencies but would represent a user perspective of satellite instrument performances. To develop a more complete set of instrument performances coming from the user perspective WGSAT prepared a review process in spring 1997. Responses were input to the database. Dr Hinsman called on the GOSSP panel to initiate a process to develop and review G3OS requirements, which should carry a time stamp to guarantee the updating process. Both chairmen also supported the point that benefits will only arise if the potential value of instrument performances is clearly defined.
6.3.2 Dr Richter noted that the GCOS JPO initiated the same review process as WGSAT, but only for GCOS requirements. The few responses were collected, but had not yet been entered into the database.
6.4.1 The participants reviewed G3OS requirements which had been entered in the database. They noted that GCOS and GOOS, via the IOC, have formulated their requirements. GTOS contributed a subset of terrestrial requirements from the TOPC. The discussion on specific data and product requirements for GTOS led to the observation that there is an urgent need in preparing such requirements. The GTOS Secretariat should take actions to develop these requirements in order to contribute to a coherent evolution of the G3OS programmes. Panel members asked for a thorough scientific control of the review process and mechanism to fix or modify the review process if necessary. Priority for the space agencies in reviewing their requirements should focus on identifying gaps and overlaps. Mr Morgan emphasised the importance of reviewing product requirements to support user needs. In respect of requirements formulated by space agencies, panel participants stressed again that those should be well articulated for climate. It was suggested to set-up a strawman proposal of space agency requirements to be verified by experts.
6.4.2 Drs Croom and Richter reported on the status of requirements for atmospheric composition. To initiate discussion, an ad hoc working group on behalf of the Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC), held a meeting following the Global Measurement Systems for Atmospheric Composition (GOMAC) conference in Toronto, May 1997. The GOMAC showed clearly that although there are many upcoming space observations, with few exceptions (e.g., Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE)) most contribute little to long-term monitoring for atmospheric composition. Measurements in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region are of varying quality, and space-based observations of the lower troposphere are very difficult to obtain. There are several existing networks for atmospheric species for surface observations which complement the data collected by Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) stations. The ad hoc working group re-formulated GCOS requirements for atmospheric composition, which will be presented and reviewed at the upcoming third session of the AOPC, in Reading, UK, in August 1997.
6.4.3 The panel adopted the concept of "application" areas to facilitate the identification of detailed and precise requirements. Possible GCOS application areas have been expressed already in the GCOS plan (i.e., detection of climate change, impact from climate change, determination of climate forcing and response, model validation, etc.). GOOS requirements are concentrated on requirements for applications and for specific regions. GTOS has addressed only application areas for climate through the TOPC. The panel participants broke up into three groups, representing atmosphere, land and ocean. The individual groups worked out applications and an associated list of requirements (Annex VII).
6.4.4 The panel attendees suggested a procedure for a systematic and consistent way of defining G3OS requirements as an input into the GOSSP/CEOS analysis. Variables can be classified into four different types. "Measured" variables describe the data as measured by satellite and are defined by satellite operators. "Ancillary" variables are needed by research scientists to correct the satellite measurements. "Input" variables are used by the environment scientists, resulting from a model and are input into an 'earth system model'. "Target" variables are the variable as required by the user, resulting from a final model step (Annex VIII).
6.4.5 The participants noted that the CEOS projects "GODAE, Upper-Air, Ocean-Colour and Forest Cover" should be reflected in the GOSSP requirements. Each of these projects will be represented at the upcoming AG meeting in Tokyo, in July 1997. The terrestrial group prepared a requirement list to be applied to the project "Forest Cover" (Table II, Annex VIII). The ocean group decided to follow this example and to prepare a list for the project "GODAE" and "Ocean Biology". GOOS has an existing list of requirements which can be taken as a strawman list and which could be verified by GODAE. Results would be reported through the OOPC. It was noticed that the outcome of group working on GODAE requirements, which combine in-situ measurements and space-based observations, will be a challenge to space agencies. WGSAT will prepare a strawman list of the "Upper-Air" and "Ozone" projects.
6.4.6 Prof. Townshend welcomed the initiative of GOSSP to demonstrate to the space agencies how to approach the needs of the G3OS by reflecting its requirements in IGOS projects. He pointed out that there is a discrepancy between the upcoming needs for user requirements and the long-term set-up of space agency requirements. The participants recommended that the G3OS views and concerns be presented in an annual report to CEOS, and other organisations.
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[3] The report can be made
available by the GCOS Joint Planning Office. [4] Correspondence was sent out on behalf of GOSSP and other WMO programmes by the Secretary-General of WMO. |
