D.F.R. BOMMER (Assistant Director-General, Agriculture Department): Mr Chairman, I am pleased to introduce to you on behalf of the Director-General, Conference document C 83/18, Land, Food and Population. The balance between land, food and population is one of the major preoccupations of humanity at the present time and it is my privilege to report to the Conference some recent FAO activities which shed new light on these issues.
In particular, I shall be referring to two studies, namely, our regional agro-ecological zone study and our regional potential population supporting capacities study; Conference's debate and advice on possible national follow-up action to the latter is sought.
A basic theme in these two activities is that the ability of land to produce is limited and any attempt to produce food in excess of these limits results in a vicious cycle of degradation and ever-reducing yields. Without food imports, in such a situation malnutrition and hunger inevitably occur. Limits to production are set by soil conditions, climatic conditions and the use and management applied to land.
Accordingly, in attempting to quantify potential productivity and potential food production, it is necessary first to define the use being considered. Is the assessment for productivity of wheat or productivity of rice? Are we talking about rainfed conditions or irrigated conditions? Are we considering production under mechanization or with unimproved handtools? Most importantly, are we quantifying potential productivity under a low-input level or with application with a high-input level? Equally important, are we attempting to quantify long-term production potentials with conservation measures or without? For our potential population supporting capacity study, we have considered three input-levels, namely: a low-input level with a currently grown mixture of crops; no fertilizers; no application for pest, disease or weed control; no conservation measures and manual labour with handtools; an intermediate level with a half optimum mixture of crops and improved varieties, some fertilizers, some pest disease and weed control, some conservation measures, and manual labour with improved handtools or animal traction with improved implements; a high-input level with an optimum mixture of crops and high yielding varieties; optimum fertilizer use, optimum pest, disease and weed control; complete conservation measures, and mechanization.
Having defined the input levels being considered, our assessment has taken account of soil conditions, by using our FAO soil map, as presented to the Twentieth session of the Conference.
On this we have superimposed a specially created climatic inventory quantifying the length of the moisture available period and the temperature regime during this period, as illustrated here for Africa. The divisions on the map are the number of days when moisture is sufficient for crop growth and they range from zero days to 365 days, at 30-day intervals. It is of interest to note that one-third of the continent is unsuitable for rainfed crop production.
Overlay of the climatic inventory on the soil map resulted in a mosaic of tens of thousands of land units, each with their own unique soil and climatic conditions and led to the computerized resource data base created by the study and now available for many developing countries.
This quantifies the extent of the different soils in the different climates in 117 countries in the developing world as partly illustrated here for one country. This resource inventory is the basis of our work in this subject area and from it the potential yield of major food crops has been calculated for each land unit. Inherent in this methodology for the study is an initial determination of agro-climatic suitabilities for different crops, as illustrated on the slide for low-inputs for millet. The dark green is very suitable, light green is suitable, yellow is marginally suitable. The same colour codes apply to the following low-input agro-climatic suitability for maize, cassava, and wheat.
This data allows calculation of the total extent of potentially cultivable land, compared here with extents of presently cultivated areas by regions, as well as the extent of individual crop suitabilities, some of which are presented here for selected crops in Africa. You will note that the area suitable for maize is extensive (424 million ha) but the area suitable for wheat is small (38 million ha).
Such basic data from our agro-ecological zone project allowed us to calculate, with the support of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the optimum potential food production and, hence, the potential population supporting capacities of the various zones identified in the agro-ecological zone study. However, before proceeding to the results of our potential population supporting capacity study, I must point out certain factors that this study could not consider at the regional level. The study only considered potentials for production of sixteen main food crops, and grassland for livestock. The sixteen crops are: rice, wheat, maize, barley, millet, sorghum, phaseolus bean, soybean, oil palm, ground-nut, cassava, sweet potato, white potato, banana/plantain, sugar cane, grassland.
The study did not quantify fish production, cash crops, nor fully account for fuelwood requirements or timber requirements, and neither did it deal with specialized crops and techniques such as intergrazing under tree crops, which might be more productive in specific environments than the sixteen food crops and three input levels considered. Additionally, it did not assume major land improvements such as flood control measures, and other major land improvements such as this development of terraced land in an otherwise unproductive environment. While we could also not assess ultimate irrigation potential, we have taken into account estimates of the present production from irrigated lands and the anticipated production by the year 2 000,as analysed in FAO's "Toward 2 000 Study".
The smallest unit of analysis in the population potential study is the individual country length of growing period zone. If the results from the individual zones are aggregated on a regional basis, it depicts the situation of a region acting as one entity with massive and unrestricted movement of surplus potential and labour throughout the entire extent of the region. Under this extreme assumption, the results appear particularly favourable and show that all regions, except Southwest Asia, have ample potentially cultivable land to feed future populations even at the low-input level.
The ratios of these regional supporting capacities to projected population requirements are as follows: that is, if Africa were able to use all its cultivable land for food crop production, it could feed 1.5 times its projected year 2 000 population.
At the other end of the spectrum, namely each one of the many individual zones within a given country attempting to attain food self-sufficiency from its own land resources, the situation is drastically different.
Under this equally extreme assumption, there are vast areas of critical zones where land resources are already insufficient to meet the food needs of populations presently living in them. Under the low-input level, Africa represents the most serious challenge, for critical zones extend right throughout almost the whole of the Sahel through Southern Sudan into the drier parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, the highlands of Rwanda and Burundi, and into the drier parts of Southern Africa. Large parts of Southwest Asia and India are critical under this assumption, as are highlands in South America, and the Island of Java, the area involved is no less than 2.5 billion hectares where more than 1 billion people, one-quarter of the total world population, are living at the present time.
Under an intermediate-input level, the extent of these critical zones reduces markedly but large parts of semi-arid Africa and Southwest Asia remain critical and stay so even under high levels of inputs. As I said these two sets of results are extremes, regional aggregation and disaggregation to individual zone level.
A more practical guide to the true impact of the problem is provided by the results aggregated to the country level, that is the assumption of movement of surplus within individual countries.
These results show that, if low-input levels would dominate by year 2 000,65 countries could not feed themselves from their domestic land resources.
Increasing the level of input is vital to reducing the number of critical countries by that year, but even at intermediate level of input, the study assesses that 37 countries, with a total population of 480 million, would remain in a critical situation by that year.
The importance of attainment of projected expansions in irrigated area, and production therefrom cannot be over-emphasized. The anticipated contribution of irrigation production to total production potential by the year 2 000 is as follows: these results show that, by that year, no less than 50 percent of the total potential, under low-input level, will be from irrigation. Regional figures varying from an exceptional high of nearly 90 percent in Southwest Asia to a low of 13 percent in the dominantly high rainfall South America region.
Equally important is the need for conservation measures by that year. The assessment shows that no less than 29 percent of the total rainfed crop potential could be lost in the developing world if soil conservation measures are not introduced.
While the findings of the Study are the results of a very broad brush assessment, they do bring to light some important considerations in the land, food and population issue, namely:
- that land resources and their potentials are very unevenly distributed both within and between countries;
- that there are very considerable areas where land resources are insufficient to meet the food needs of populations presently, and projected to be, dependent on them by the end of this century.
Such factors must be taken into account in considering food/population and development issues.
You will recognize that land is by no means the only factor to be considered in the complex food/ population issue. However, we do feel that it is a vital prerequisite to quantify its potential at country level, to provide a reliable physical resource base on which all other equally important factors can be superimposed. Without such a base, we have little hope of success in identifying and planning future development options.
I believe we have a great responsibility to catalyze detailed national studies on land to quantify potential vis-à-vis population requirements. Such studies, however, must take into account factors which it has not been possible to consider in the presently reported regional studies.
In conclusion, please allow me to repeat that the concept of land and its potential to produce or not produce, is in our opinion, one of the vital components of the food and population issue. We look forward to Conference debate and advice in an effort to safeguard the future. The future for this couple, of these young people, and of these children.
EL PRESIDENTE: En nombre de la Comisión y en el mío propio, agradezco al Dr. Bommer su excelente, interesante y bien ilustrada presentación.
Antes de darles la palabra a los Sres. Delegados, deseo hacer unos breves comentarios.
El estudio aquí presentado está íntimamente ligado a otros temas de las discusiones de esta Comisión, y también evidentemente a los de otros Organismos. Presenta otra manera de ver una misma realidad y sus posibles perspectivas.
El trabajo busca ilustrar más que normar, y las conclusiones que de él saquemos nos permitirán sin duda indicarle a la FAO a qué darle atención en futuras ampliaciones del estudio y cómo incorporar esas consideraciones en sus labores.
Nos permitirá también confirmar prioridades y estrategias a largo plazo y verificar que el futuro lo estamos diseñando ahora nosotros y que de nuestras decisiones, acciones y buena voluntad, dependerá que esa visión de futuro sea catastrófica o positiva y superable.
Nosotros determinamos la realidad y no a la inversa. De ahí la necesidad de identificar los responsables del futuro y las acciones prioritarias.
Los factores y zonas críticas están reconocidos. Debemos considerar sus cuantificaciones en el diseño de estrategias de desarrollo nacional e internacional.
La incorporación más congruente y efectiva de la Seguridad Alimentaria a todos los niveles resulta indispensable, así como la atención a las orientaciones del reajuste agrícola internacional que ayer debatimos. Sin embargo, mayores estudios, más amplia metodología y detalles se requieren.
FAO podría, dentro de sus funciones, responder a ello y contribuir a mejorar la planificación y administración en la utilización de tierras y tecnologías. Ojalá podamos incorporar pleno consenso en el reporte de la Conferencia en torno a este tema.
Les pido por tanto, Sres. Delegados, que limiten su discusión al contenido del documento y traten de evitar los detalles y las sutilezas técnicas que nos puedan perder.
Buscamos un gran balance educativo más que una acción normativa.
Si no hay ningún comentario de parte de los Sres'Delegados, desearía proceder a otorgarles la palabra para que manifiesten sus comentarios sobre el tema.
Parece que la Delegación de Cabo Verde desea hablar.
A.R. PIRES (Cap-Vert): Je vous remercie de m'avoir accordé la parole. Comme vous le savez la situation alimentaire en Afrique, et plus particulièrement dans les 22 pays de l'Equipe spéciale FAO/PAM constituée par le Directeur général de la FAO,est très grave. Etant donné le rôle que notre Organisation a joué, que la FAO a joué, mon pays,la République du Cap-Vert, au nom des pays concernés, a l'honneur de vous proposer un Projet de résolution que je vous remets. Cette Résolution a été parrainée par d'autres pays qui vont prendre la parole et qui sont les pays suivants: Cameroun, Kenya, Mauritanie, Mali, Bénin et Angola.
EL PRESIDENTE: ¿La Delegación de Cabo Verde me está proponiendo que cada uno de estos delegados tome la palabra?
¿La Delegación de Camerún desea hacer uso de la palabra?
A.G. NGONGI NAMANGA (Cameroon): I just wish to take the floor to say Cameroon will be very happy to associate itself with this Resolution. We have discussed in many different commissions and committees the serious problems which are occurring in Africa. I think this resolution deserves study by the Resolutions Committee.
EL PRESIDENTE: Tomamos debida nota, Sr. Delegado del Camerún, y les agradecemos la entrega del Proyecto de Resolución.
A.S. OULD MOLOUD (Mauritanie): C'est tout simplement pour dire que je soutiens énergiquement la Résolution et la proposition présentées par le Cap-Vert. Vue la situation actuelle des pays au sud du Sahara et surtout compte tenu du fait que la campagne cette année a été l'une des plus catastrophiques,nous demandons par conséquent à cette assemblée de bien vouloir examiner cette Résolution.
H.P.A. SENGHOR (Sénégal): Je voudrais simplement ajouter que le Sénégal soutient cette Résolution proposée par le délégué du Cap-Vert.
M. DIALLO (Mali): La Délégation malienne à son tour est très heureuse de s'associer à ce projet de résolution qui va certainement traiter d'un sujet très important.
Le représentant du Cap-Vert l'a dit, l'alimentation, la population et les terres constituent de nos jours un sujet préoccupant. Sur ce point la délégation malienne tient â proposer à cette Commission de bien vouloir soutenir ce projet de resolution.
N.E. MUMBA (Zambia): I wish to say that the Zambian delegation wants to associate itself with this particular Resolution. We believe it is very important, especially for Africa.
M. FENWICK (United States of America): I would be happy to comment on the Cape Verde Resolution if we could see a copy. I have received no copy and none of my colleagues here have received a copy. I do not like to be left out. My country, I am sure, would be happy to comment if we could see a copy of the Resolution. Thank you, Mr Chairman.
EL PRESIDENTE: Ahora lo que están haciendo estos países es notificar a esta Presidencia el que desean gestionar un Proyecto de Resolución en torno al tema que les preoccupa. Este Proyecto de Resolución deberá pasar primero por la revision que el Comité de Resoluciones haga, y posteriormente, se entregará y distribuirá en todos los idiomas el Proyecto de Resolución como lo haya determinado dicho Comité de Resoluciones.
En el caso de que hubiera comentarios en torno a dicho Proyecto, esta Comisión podría constituir, eventualmente, un grupo de contacto para tratar esos comentarios.
Por lo pronto, debemos esperar 24 horas para poder contar con tal Proyecto de Resolución; les agradezco su paciencia.
¿Hay algún otro comentario? Si no lo hay, les ofrezco la palabra en relación al tema que nos ocupa el día de hoy. Me estoy refiriendo ahora a las declaraciones ya de tipo general, en relación a este tema 8 de nuestra agenda. ¿Hay alguna otra delegación que desea hacer uso de la palabra, además de la delegación de Viet Nam? Primero, los Estados Unidos de América; luego tenemos a México, Australia, Malasia, Reino Unido, Suiza, República Federal de Alemania, Pakistán, China, Camerún, Cuba, Países Bajos.
DUONG PHUNGF (Viet Nam): Plusieurs chefs de délégation, en séance plénière, ont abordé le problème du rapport entre l'accroissement de la production alimentaire et celui de la population. Notre pays connaît ce même problème et nous voudrions ici souligner l'importance d'un double effort pour l'impulsion de la production et la limitation des naissances.
Depuis 1975, après la libération et la réunification de notre pays, notre gouvernement ne cesse de donner une priorité soutenue à la production alimentaire et a mobilisé toute la population dans cette lutte contre la faim et la malnutrition pour arriver à l’autosuffisance alimentaire. Mais les difficultés sont grandes: calamités naturelles, manque d'infrastructures, manque d'intrants, et, en outre, nous devons continuellement lutter contre une guerre de sabotage et un blocus économique. Cependant, coûte que coûte nous devons relever le défi de l’autosuifisance alimentaire en stimulant la production agricole de pair avec le mouvement de réduction du taux de naissances.
Partant de 13,5 millions de tonnes de paddy en 1976, nous avons atteint en 1982 16,6 millions de tonnes et nous pourrions avoir 17 millions de tonnes cette année si les typhons de fin d'année ne causaient pas trop de dégâts.
Durant la période 1976 à 1982, la production alimentaire de notre pays a atteint un taux d'accroissement moyen de 3,5 pour cent et ce taux s'est élevé à six pour cent de 1981 à 1982. Nous avons pu diminuer progressivement l'importation des céréales. Si elle était de 2,1 millions de tonnes en équivalent paddy en 1979, elle est presque nulle cette année.
De pair avec la priorité données à la production alimentaire, nous avons déclenché un vaste mouvement de mobilisation de la population pour le planning familial. En 1976, nous avions 49,16 millions d'habitants et le taux de croissance démographique annuelle était de 3,2 pour cent. En 1982, la population a atteint 56,2 millions, la croissance annuelle était réduite à 2,2 pour cent. Nous avons pu en l'espace de six ans diminuer le taux d'accroissement démographique de un pour cent. Dans cette lutte pour l'autosuffisance vivrière, nous avons procédé à une nouvelle répartition géographique de la population. Presque un million d'habitants partent des régions où la densité est trop élevée (comme dans les provinces surpeuplées du fleuve Rouge et dans les villes et chefs-lieux) pour aller dans différentes régions du pays où la densité est moindre et où la terre cultivable est encore en disponibilité. Ainsi de nouvelles régions économiques sont formées. Nous avons défriché de nouvelles terres et réexploité des terres laissées en friche durant de longues années de guerre et nous avons aussi augmenté la superficie mise en culture de plus de 700 000 hectares.
La possibilité de défrichement et d'élargissement des terres cultivables est encore grande dans notre pays. Avec une coopération internationale plus efficace nous pourrions réaliser des résultats meilleurs.
Les premiers résultats de cette longue et patiente lutte pour l’autosuffisance alimentaire dans notre pays sont encourageants mais il nous reste énormément à faire. La production, la consommation, le revenu annuel par habitant sont encore faibles par rapport à beaucoup d'autres pays. Il nous manque une infrastructure adéquate, des bases matérielles techniques qui sont indispensables pour l'accroissement rapide de la population; d'autre part, faute de moyens de conservation, de stockage, de transport, d'usinage, les pertes après récolte sont encore grandes.
Nous souhaiterions bien avoir une coopération et une aide internationale multilatérale ou bilatérale dans cette ardente lutte contre la faim et la malnutrition.
M. FENWICK (United States of America): First, I would like to congratulate the Secretariat on the Report and the whole philosophy that has infused it. The photographs, the analysis of the land - and I hope that you will forgive me a little personal note here: those satellite photographs were developed in my district, my old Congressional district, my little home district, and made available to our National Aviation and Space Agency, which in turn made them available to FAO. I think it is one of this world.
And this remarkable emphasis on land, land and water; how can we live without them if we do not understand the nature of soil, its biology and construction and its use?
In that I would like to say that I think my country and many other countries have a lot to learn. We saw those photographs of this beautiful terracing. Is that done everywhere? I am sorry to say it is not. It is a method that has not been developed by some professors in faraway universities. It is something that the people who live on the land have evolved with common sense.
This brings me back to something that I do most profoundly believe. We say and the survey of the FAO Report shows these enormous numbers of nations at risk, human beings. What are we talking about when we say "nations at risk"? Human beings. Dr Bommer has just told us there are 447 million people at risk, human beings, and what methods can be devised to minimize this risk?
Commonsense must come in here, as well as technology. We cannot ignore the advice of farmers who have lived on the land and have worked it, neither can we ignore the advice of those who have produced more in other places in somewhat different ways. But we must respect those with whom we deal. We have proved in our own country that if you have a plan, no matter how beautifully devised, every professor will tell you that this is what we shall do, but if the people who are going to implement it are not convinced, it will not work. If they do not think it is sensible, if you cannot persuade them, if you cannot somehow cooperate with people in a more brotherly and humble way, respecting them, you will not get things to work. You will have a little improvement while the money still comes, and then it will die down when the money inevitably, some decades from now, may die down also.
We must have a more rational, sensible and human approach to the problem. It is not going to be easy, and no one pretends that it will be, but I think this report is a wonderful first step. It begins to tell us the truth.
When we are talking about food and agriculture, we have to consider population increases, too. We have to notice that in many, many countries of Asia these remarkable improvements have been made in keeping the food production level and the population level more or less even. But we notice with horror and alarm where the population rises but production does not begin to keep pace with the population rise, and in fact in some cases falls, not just per capita but absolutely.
These are the elements that make a tragedy inevitable unless somehow we move with a little more zeal, earnestness, concern and caring commonsense. Those, Mr Chairman, are what I hope to see.
I hope to see those elements that work; some interest. We must offer family planning services wherever people are interested, and try to interest them in, the most generous and offering way, certainly not with any kind of compulsion. We must respect other people's views, moral, religious, ethical and historic. But it can be offered in a brotherly, sisterly spirit of cooperation. To neglect to do so would be, in my opinion, an absolutely cruel thing to do, cruel and unnecessary. It does not have to be something that is imposed, but surely it can be offered. Its virtues and its benefits can be made known. We spoke yesterday of a country in Africa where the birth rate used to be 4.4 percent and is now 2.2 percent and what has happened to their very poorest people. The very poorest people are now reduced from 73 percent of the population to 21 percent. You can achieve improvement if the government cares, if the world cares, if the commonsense is applied to the problems.
G. PEREZ MORENO (México): Queremos iniciar nuestra intervención, felicitando atentamente, a la Secretaría por el excelente estudio que ha elaborado, así como al Sr. Bommer, por la amena exposición del mismo. Se trata de un interesante esfuerzo por vincular la población, la tierra y los insumos en la determinación de la capacidad mundial de producción de alimentos.
Consideramos a este documento valioso pues contribuye a desmistificar la visión apocalíptica del mundo y de la agricultura en el año 2000. Tal pesimismo ha hecho daño a la humanidad al culpabi-lizar las limitaciones de nuestro planeta de las insuficiencias alimentarias, convirtiéndonos en víctimas de un determinismo falso y engañoso.
Si bien existen muchas condiciones para lograr una producción suficiente de alimentos para la población prevista en el año 2000, este estudio nos devuelve la seguridad de que aún es válido aspirar a llegar con justicia y bienestar al final de este siglo.
En referencia al documento se evalúan las condiciones físicas que influencian el nivel de producción alimentaria, definiéndose así el rendimiento potencial de la producción de alimentos. Para ello, se utilizan tres escenarios: utilización de tecnología moderna, de tecnología intermedia y de tecnología tradicional. Bajo los tres escenarios, los proyectos predicen un rendimiento potencial mundial superior a las necesidades mínimas de energía alimentaria para la población del año 2000. Los excedentes varían de 200 por cien en el caso de uso de tecnología .moderna, al 50 por cien con el uso de insumos tradicionales. Se trata, pues, de resultados sin duda alentadores.
Las teorías neomaltusianas nos enfrentan aquí a duras pruebas, pues lejos de preverse escasez de alimentos, el mundo puede disponer de abundantes y excelentes alimentos, suponiendo las tasas de crecimiento demográfico más elevadas. Queremos insistir en que más que sus recursos naturales, la riqueza de un pueblo comienza con su fuerza de trabajo, con sus recursos humanos. De esa forma, naturalmente, los análisis regionales y por países no alimentan tanto optimismo.
La concentración de la producción de alimentos en algunos países explica la prevalencia de insuficiencias alimentarias en 65 países para el año 2000, la mayoría de ellos en la región de Asia sudoccidental. Sin embargo, no podemos dejar de mencionar los alentadores resultados del estudio sobre la región sudamericana quien podrá disponer de recursos suficientes para tener, incluso, considerables excedentes para la exportación. Queremos detenernos, Señor Presidente, unos minutos a considerar las razones que se mencionan en el documento sobre la inequitativa distribución y la disponibilidad de los alimentos entre países y regiones. El grueso de la atención tiende a centrarse en la desigual distribución de los recursos naturales entre países y regiones, dando una importancia sólo secundaria a aspectos tales como la disponibilidad de recursos financieros, el nivel de ingresos o la distribución de los insumos, más aun, la disponibilidad de mano de obra, la tecnología, la reforma agraria y otros son aspectos que ni siquiera se mencionan en el documento, y que forman parte integral de los problemas agrícolas que enfrenta hoy, y con mayor razón en el año 2000, el tercer mundo.
Nos parece que pretender rendir cuentas de la producción alimentaria a partir de la potencialidad agronómica de la tierra significa no reconocer que son condiciones sociales y económicas las que permiten valorizar y aprovechar eficazmente lo que la naturaleza nos ofrece gratuitamente.
En cuanto a los niveles y grados de modernización referidos en el documento quisiéramos solicitar mayores comentarios por parte de.la secretaría, ya que existe una larga lista de implicaciones indeseables de todo proceso de modernización y discriminación a ultranza. Las experiencias pasadas son importantes para no repetir errores, y solicitamos por tanto mayor atención a las capacidades nacionales para la autodeterminación tecnológica.
Nuestra delegación desea dar su pleno apoyo a la continuación de este estudio, siempre y cuando se incorporen, de manera orgánica, los factores que anteriormente mencionamos. También creemos que el estudio puede ser de gran y valiosa utilidad si incorpora un análisis específico, por países, con la información y comentarios que puedan utilizarse en los programas nacionales de desarrollo agrícola.
Queremos asimismo, recoger un resultado particularmente valioso del estudio en su fase actual que se refiere a los 65 países que se prevé ho podrán cubrir los requerimientos alimentarios de su población en el año 2000. Lejos de considerarlo un resultado catastrofista, consideramos que si la agricultura no puede ser el pivote de su desarrollo económico, es hoy responsabilidad nuestra el asegurar una gradual reconversión de dichas economías hacia otras actividades que en el futuro rindan los beneficios necesarios para permitirles importar alimentos.
Sólo para terminar, queremos insistir en que los aspectos aquí considerados forman parte de una realidad compleja, y que los resultados obtenidos deben aún relacionarse con otros muchos aspectos que permitan el análisis de la seguridad alimentaria o del Reajuste Agrícola Internacional de forma integral y dinámica.
D. F. SMITH (Australia): Mr Chairman, I should like to congratulate Dr Bommer on the presentation of this paper and the way in which he has so graphically illustrated the world problem. At first glance, this is a very comforting paper because it confirms that the world as a whole- and I stress as a whole-should have enough cultivable land to feed more than the maximum population it is ever likely to have to support. It is also a nice paper in a technical sense. As the delegate from the United States has reminded us, our best technology has gone into its preparation.
We are invited by you, Mr Chairman, to look at the paper as a whole and to look at its methodology, assumptions and limitations. It is when I do that, that I begin to wonder and begin to see real dangers. It is by its own admission "a pioneering first approximation" and it is dangerous for us to start congratulating ourselves and saying that all is well. It is very approximate indeed, with huge margins for error in many directions. We all know that when we begin multiplying several variables, each of which can range over several magnitudes, we are in a dangerous business when life and death depend on it. In the end, I wonder whether the study has much reliability on a global scale, because of the qualifications. Country data can, of course, be produced more reliably, and I would urge FAO to move very quickly onto the stage of looking at country data.
I note that neither China nor Australia are included, and perhaps we would not wish to be. I leave it to the delegate from China to comment on his country, which I admire very much, but in passing would note that a country with a low percentage of arability has fed a very large population by the correct - and I stress the world correct - appropriate level of inputs and the industriousness of its people. I would be interested to know how many it could feed if we applied this technology of mapping to it.
I will comment on my own homeland, Australia, which, as many of you will know, is a desert, a desert island, with a couple of high rainfall corners, generally poor soils and modest rainfall. Its largest river has a discharge of only a small fraction of that of the well known rivers of the world, such as the Ganges, and I am sure that if our forefathers had had the methodology used in this study they would probably have decided not to settle the place in the first instance, and I would remind you, too, that using European technology at the time our ancestors faced starvation for the first 50 years. Yet using our own specifically developed technology to suit those conditions and the right mix of inputs - and here I take note of what the delegate from Mexico said - and with the right sort of farmers today we feed 15 million people extremely well and expect to be able to feed at least 60 million more, and if people will buy our grains we can produce even more again.
Perhaps one of the basic strategies we have used is fundamental because we calculate that 99 percent of our crop and forage area relies on legume nitrogen, not on fertilizer nitrogen. This year possibly we have been given free by nature one billion dollars worth of nitrogen.
I do not propose to work through the paper in detail, but I would question certain assumptions, particularly that of the input packages. In the Plenary Session our Minister also cautioned against high input technology. We must stress the appropriateness of technology, as I have suggested earlier. Secondly, I believe there are some dangerous assumptions about land use as forests competing with crops and pastures. They do compete, and yet the assumption is made in the paper that forest is only to be thought of on land not suitable for crops or pasture.
Thirdly, I would stress that the point made in the paper that quite large areas of land are not suitable for human activity for a variety of reasons, but should be held for the breeding of livestock and other factors. On the positive side - I do not want to be too gloomy - we may have another green revolution. We may crack the secret of nitrogen fixation in legumes and attach it to other crops. Hopefully breakthroughs such as this will mean that this study looks pessimistic rather than optimistic.
Finally, I hope we might begin to make some sense of our food trade policies. Enough people have pleaded for this during the last week here at FAO. I hope that this was not too costly a study, eating into resources which must now urgently be applied to the consequent detailed national studies and to the actions to get agriculture moving in so many desperate situations. There is no room for self-congratulation or complacency, and I hope this study does not encourage it.
M. YASIN bin MOHD SALLEH (Malaysia) : The Malaysian delegation would first like to commend the Director-General for the preparation of a very useful document on the assessment of the potential population supporting capacities of land in the world in comparison with their actual and projected population. Being the first study of its kind, no doubt it contains many issues that will have to be examined in more detail in the future, and we agree with the suggestion that this study should be regarded as the first approximation and that it requires further refinements.
However, we are happy to note that even at its preliminary stage, there are indications that the world still has a large part of unused land, which could be used for food production and even at an intermediate level of input used, the potential production of food is three times that at the low level. While this global figure is indeed promising, there is no doubt, that more detailed national and regional studies are needed to take into account the national and regional factors. It is for this reason that Malaysia is pleased to note that on the basis of the study carried out by FAO, the Director-General proposed to devote more funds in the forthcoming biennium to country level work on land use resources. As an indication of Malaysia's support for this trust, the Government of Malaysia has collaborated with the FAO Regional Office in the preparation of a project document that would lead to country level application of the methodology which has been developed. We are pleased to note that similar initiatives are being undertaken in the member countries of ASEAN raising the possibility of further sub-regional cooperation in the field, in the future. This would, in fact, broaden our already existing cooperative arrangement in the ASEAN population and rural development programme. This programme, where Malaysia plays the leading role in modular training, is now a viable programme and has become a model for sub-regional cooperation.
D.C.P. EVANS (United Kingdom): I will speak generally to this paper, which is a particularly important one. Indeed, our thanks are due to FAO and its collaborators for executing the study and in particular today to Dr Bommer for his statement. Not only does it provide a more reliable assessment of global and regional food production potential than has been available before, but it also reflects the methodology that with refinement can be applied even more valuably at national levels. Therefore, we did encourage FAO to develop its study in this area and to stress the need for future conferences to examine the problem at regular intervals.
The study can also be of importance in helping countries to face up to the limitations of their land resources, and to plan their agricultural and population policies accordingly. This is a new item on the Conference Agenda, and the paper clearly must be read in conjunction with document C 83/2 - The State of Food and Agriculture 1983, which gives a factual account of the current state of play globally.
The issues which seem to emerge from the document and from the previous debate in this Commission are firstly, the problems of distribution, of agricultural land and the indications for development; secondly, the need for agricultural development at a fairly high level, although the consequences of failure to develop to a high level are squarely faced; and thirdly, the need for further national studies of population support capacities. At future conferences and, indeed, at technical meetings, it will clearly be necessary to develop this study to a very much further degree as there is concern about the future beyond the year 2000. Therefore, my delegation fully supports the need for more detailed national studies of potential population supporting capacities.
The FAO Conference should periodically debate this, as I have said. This is particularly important because it is part of the stewardship of FAO, as these studies will have a direct bearing on national and international development strategies and policies.
It is indeed a sobering thought that in recent years many developing countries have been unable to expand food production sufficiently to keep up with population growth. In an increasing number of countries production is falling behind total demand and rising income, as well as rising population. Concern is expressed about this, and must be so expressed. The study identifies 55 critical countries whose potential population supporting capacity at the low level of imports is actually less than for their 1975 populations. Unless a big effort can be put into increasing production outputs in these countries, the future is bleak, especially as other factors such as unfavourable climatic conditions, land degredation and various forms of strife can affect critically the balance of land, food and population with might be achieved in any country.
Therefore, we must thank FAO for this timely warning. We stress the importance of this interim study and the need for further planning along the lines suggested in the third paragraph of page 9. This should be fully endorsed by this Conference. Clearly, there is a need to follow up this line of work at the International Conference on Population which will take place in August 1984. While population growth for many countries is a sensitive issue, it is absolutely essential to face facts as brought out in this document, and the potentially serious situation unless immediate steps are taken to rectify present trends. As we have said already, FAO can play a most useful role in stimulating and assessing national studies of human support capacites, at the same time identifying the areas where basic information on soils, climate, and so on, needs first to be tackled. Such information is critical to the drafting of sound agricultural policies.
In other documentation presented to this meeting, FAO has indicated that as a target for food and agricultural production in developing countries, expansion should take place at an average rate of at least 4 percent to meet the nutritional needs and increasing demands of their population. In the FAO study, AT 2000, FAO estimates the food-aid requirement, except for China, should increase to between 15 million and 25 million tons by 1990. Clearly, this cannot be achieved at the low level of potential productivity or even, probably, at the intermediate level. It is unlikely that many developing countries can satisfactorily raise their potential to the higher levels which we have heard quoted. This presents an enigma to all member countries, whether developing or developed.
H. POPP (Switzerland) (original language German): I should like to join the previous delegations which have already expressed their gratitude to the Director-General for his most valuable document. In particular may I thank Dr Bommer for the clear presentation he made of this report.
My delegation supports FAO in its intention to continue in this direction and in the further revision of this report. In fact, this report is an attempt to deal with one of the central issues facing mankind, namely, how many people our planet can support in the last analysis. This paper considers the question from the regional standpoint. We think this is an important approach because each region should be able to support the food requirements of the population in that region. It is important to know at what point in time there is a break between supply and demand - in other words, when do we have to expect that the population-supporting capacity of the land simply cannot keep pace with the growing population and its requirement for food? It is important to remember that only with a scientific basis such as is provided by this report will it be possible to devise a sound policy. Agrarian policy, resource policies, environmental policies and population policies all require this sort of underpinning.
We believe that this study should provide replies to three kinds of questions and thus contain three sorts of information: first, what are the potentials and the limitations for a given region? Secondly, what will happen if we continue along the lines being pursued now? Thirdly, what conclusions can be drawn from this kind of information?
Another important point which has already been mentioned is that this report takes an optimistic -perhaps an unduly optimistic - view. We welcome the fact that this report demonstrates that the potential exists, it is there. However, the potential must be realized and it is up to us, the Governments to motivate the farm populations and provide them with the inputs they require.
The report also pinpoints the importance of the human factor and human resources. It bears out all those who are convinced that incentives must be given to farmers and they must be given the means of production. This will elicit a positive response on the part of the farmers.
I should like to stress once again the general conclusions which could be drawn, but I think it is probably too early to draw such conclusions, and therefore I would share the view of those who have said that this is just a preliminary approach and we should not be deluded by what we find here. The findings are not deep and extensive enough. A number of different repercussions and consequences are simply not accounted for, in particular in respect of the environment. Also there are some shortcomings in this report concerning population growth figures. It is precisely on this point that the experts are not all in agreement.
So the specific criticism that I would level concerning this document involves what is said in the very first paragraph of the document where we are told that "The world's population is expected eventually to reach a stable level." The paragraph continues, "The most recent United Nations estimate..." and so on, and then, "In this case there would be more than twice as many people to feed as the 1983 population of about 4 700 million." Who has been able to come up with forecasts of this sort? Who can come up with projections to the year 2095, such as we find in the second sentence of this first paragraph? Other experts have come up with other estimates; for example, the Club of Rome, or "Global 2000", tells us that in many countries there are very few indications that the population explosion will taper off. So how can it be stated in black and white in this document that there will be a stabilisation of the world's population at a level of 10.2 billion? This would be at a level twice as large as the present one? Whereas other very liable studies tell us that towards the middle of the next century the population will be three or four times as great as it is at present.
Therefore, we would like to see the analysis of this rather critical and controversial issue being continued with a great deal of caution in respect to population estimates, because otherwise we shall be deluding ourselves. We shall create a certain sense of security which is simply unjustified.
To sum up, we commend the FAO for its study, and congratulations go in particular to the author. We encourage FAO to continue to earmark the resources necessary to continue to refine this kind of investigation. We shall look forward to having more concrete and perhaps more accurate and convincing results at the next conference.
E. SCHRODER (Germany, Federal Republic of) (original language German): First of all I would like to thank the FAO Secretariat and Dr. Bommer in Particular for the excellent introduction at this subject. The presentation with impressive slides has given us a good insight into the complicated and detailed work which was necessary for the preparation of the study. They also gave an insight into the dimension of the problem, and we are all called upon to work towards the solution of it.
My delegation welcomes the studies made by FAO with the support of the UN Population Fund on the relationship between population growth and food potential in the Third World. Despite all the difficulties, problems and possible margins of error such projections contain, they are absolutely necessary for a responsible future-oriented policy. Its benefit is not only information for the countries concerned and for the world-wide international organizations, but also for the political discussion in the developed countries. The study reveals not only that further financial and technical assistance necessary to resolve the growing food problems in developing countries. It also becomes evident that the return to traditional types of farming, as recommended by some ecological groupings in the western industrialized countries - types of farming as they are still widely spread in the subsistence economies of the poorest countries - would drastically aggravate the hunger problem. In the conviction work to be done by governments, so that their policies are accepted and supported by the population, founded arguments are of great importance which such studies supply. Likewise important is the breakdown of the results down to the country level. In larger areas, regions or even continents the aggregated data may easily lead to errors in interpretation. In particular a country-by-country approach reveals the substantial differences between population trend, and long-term food potential also within the Third World. The danger of false interpretations will also be diminished if the assumptions of the extreme scenarios would be nearer to reality.
My delegation is in favour of further work to be done in that important area. It, however, stresses that the Secretariat of the United Nations' Environment Programme, in its proposals for an action programme to implement world land policy, suggests measures in that field. In view of the knowledge and experience existing in FAO as well as the work undertaken in the fields of land, food and population we are in favour of having the work continued in this organization, that means in FAO. We also stated this to UNEP. We suggest that the coordination and cooperation should be improved between FAO and UNEP.
M. AHMAD (Pakistan): Let me start with the statement that the FAO/IIASA/UNFPA Study is really a commendable initiative by FAO, and equally admirable has been the presentation by Dr Bommer of the results of this study, very well illustrated with the slides.
Not only is the study opportune in the context of next year's international conference on population, but also it is most timely from a point of view of decisions to be taken by governments to feed their growing populations less than two decades hence, in view of the immense tasks involved.
The limitations of the study have been well brought out. There are both pluses and minuses, and perhaps these add to the realism of the broad conclusions emerging from the study. It is heartening to note that out of the five regions studied, four could achieve self-sufficiency in the year 2000, even at low levels of inputs. On the other hand, the seriousness of the situation in south-west Asia, neighbouring Pakistan, where 12 out of 16 countries will not be able to have enough food for their populations, even with high levels of inputs, has also been very well highlighted.
That nearly one-fifth of the potential production would be lost if necessary measures to prevent land degradation are not undertaken, is equally a matter of great concern.
The study has rightly put the world food security picture well in focus. The need for financial and technical support to the developing countries and liberalisation and stabilisation of world trade, especially in food, has been justifiably emphasized.
My delegation is of the view that this study should be followed up and there should be more refinements at the global level as well as at the regional levels. FAO is the competent agency to carry out this task and should be provided with adequate financial resources to carry it out. Governments should also be helped in carrying out such studies in a more detailed fashion at the country levels.
However, I would like to mention the relevance of the intermediate level of inputs, particularly for the year 2000. We would suggest that some kind of partial mechanization should also be considered, at least for the year 2000, in carrying out a study, because the high-level of inputs may be very unrealistic in some regions of the world. To carry out these studies and to enable FAO further to develop and refine it, the first step would be the collection of soil and land capability classification data. The second would be the determination and development of data about water resources both surface as well as underground.
We in Pakistan are fortunate only that we have the soil data and land classification data for 70 per cent of our area. We have mapped out the entire surface water potential as well as underground water potential which could be harnessed.
Equally important is the question of carrying out population planning. In Pakistan we have been doing so on an entirely new basis. We have a plan which has launched from 1st July this year, a programme to reduce population growth from around 2.87 per cent at the moment to 2.6 per cent at the end of the plan. The trust and strategy of the programme has been shifted from uni-purpose family planning approach to a multi-disciplinary integrated approach, taking cognisance of the inter-relation between population, resources and other socio-economic development processes.
We fully support the active and continuing role of FAO in promoting and assisting better land use, planning and management.
GONG SHAOWEN (China) (original language Chinese): In preparing next year's International Conference on Population, FAO has carried out a survey of the land, food and population conditions in 117 developing countries and conducted a forecast of the population-supporting potentials of the land, thus having accomplished a task of great significance.
As we all know, the world population has doubled over the past 50 years. In some developing countries the population growth has overtaken that of food production. This has not only given to a chain of social and economic problems, but also hindered the development of world economy. With the limited land resources in the world and the current level of science and technology and economic conditions, it is undoubtedly an arduous task to make maximum use of the existing land so as to produce sufficient food to feed the ever increasing population and meet their growing needs for a better life. These should be taken into serious consideration by all countries, especially the developing countries, in formulating their respective policies and programmes for social and economic development.
China is a populous country with insufficient arable land. Accordingly, our Government has all along paid due attention to the question of how to make better use of the existing cultivated land and raise food production. Since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, we have tried on the one hand to raise the per-unit-area yields by augmenting inputs, while on the other hand taken advantage of the favourable weather conditions to enlarge the multiple-cropping area, by turning 3-crop rotation every 2 years into 2-crop rotation every year, and the 2-crop rotation every year into 3-crop rotation in some localities. This change has contributed much to the increased food production. However, the expansion of multiple-cropping area is circumscribed by certain conditions, including the ample supply of water, fertilizer, work force and suitable seeds in addition to weather conditions. For example, a few regions in our country that increased their multiple-cropping area without considering the local condition have ended up with decreased production and poor economic results.
Since 1949, various kinds of capital construction project and rural house-building have occupied large areas of cultivated land. And the indiscriminate opening up of new land in some areas has caused erosion of the soil. These have adversely affected agricultural development. To solve these problems, the government has made it one of the state policies to cherish and rationally utilize every inch of land and effectively preserve the cultivated land. Besides, we have also taken some concrete measures which include mainly: strict control of the land for all capital construction projects; planned and restricted allocation of land for rural house-building; prohibition of land reclamation on hillside above 25 degrees; taking effective measures against sand-storms and soil erosion where there are serious water and wind erosion; taking precaution against land pollution by factories, mines and institutions; rational increase of inputs to the arable land; and combination of utilization and preservation so as to permit no or little reduction of the cultivated land areas. Only through rational use and management of the land can we fully tap its production potentials.
As for the use of land, in the past, we focussed our attention only on the existing 100 million hectares of cultivated land while overlooking the utilization of the vast area of 9.6 million square kilometres. Among the 266 million hectares of grassland, 220 million are usable. We also have over 66 million hectares of grass-covered mountains and 5 million hectares of usable fresh water body in the south, and 54 million hectares of barren mountains and fields suitable for afforestation, but all these have not been fully used in the past.
With a view to putting the land resources into more rational use, we have, since 1978, been engaged in the survey of agricultural resources and agricultural zoning. By now this work has been completed in over half of the counties in our country. These counties have readjusted their farming structure according to the results of zoning, adopted a scientific approach in production and thus promoted the development of production.
In order to provide the people with sufficient food and gradually improve their livelihood, developing agriculture alone is not enough. We have to carry out the policy of family planning to check population growth. Our government has recently integrated the population policy as an important part into the overall policy for national economy and development, effecting population control by way of family planning so as to raise the quality of the population. Therefore, we advocate, for every couple, one child, limit the number of second birth and prohibit the birth of the third child. However, this practice can be relaxed among the sparsely-populated minority regions.
As regards the basic approaches in family planning, we lay emphasis mainly on education, contraception and regular day-to-day work. We have carried out particularly in the countryside large-scale educational activities in which factual cases are demonstrated to promote the understanding of an initiative toward family planning among the peasants. Furthermore, we have established friendly cooperation in this field with many countries and international organizations on a bilateral or multilateral basis, which is contributing a lot to our population control work.
In conclusion, our guidelines can be summed up as follows: controlling population growth by practising family planning while developing diversified food production by making full and rational use of the land. We are confident that in this field we will make even greater progress in the years to come.
A.G.NGONGI NAMANGA (Cameroon): I shall first of all congratulate the Secretariat for producing such an excellent and thoughtful working document, particularly Dr Bommer for his excellent presentation this morning. I think he called on all his energies as a former professor to give us a very brilliant presentation.
It is a very timely discussion on the problems of population and food, bearing in mind that next year there will be an International Conference on Population. I do not say that I have read this paper with a lot of interest. I tried reading it in different directions, sometimes attempting to read it backwards. Every time I read it, I came to slightly different conclusions, so I will give you the conclusions I reached in the last reading.
High population growth rate is clearly a problem with developing countries which are having serious difficulty in reaching food requirements and have 75 percent current world population and will have 85 percent of the world population in the year 2000. Countries such as South Africa, which is having serious food problems,are having one of the highest growth rates in population.
At this stage I can only say it is a very welcome paper and it will need to be refined so it can be included in policy considerations by many Member States. Methodology as explained by Dr Bommer is fully satisfactory. There are many limitations, I do not need to name all of them, but there are pluses, and minuses and it is the opinion of my delegation that when all of these are added together, they will cancel each other and therefore we could have some reliance on the data presented to us.
Now, let us move to the main findings of this document. I am sure that we are expected to express ourselves and to make some critical remarks, so that when this document has been refined we can come to some conclusions which can be used. As this delegation sees it there are two countermanding forces.
One is population growth, the other is technology. Is it population growth of 3 percent or 3 1/2 percent per annum which is actually the root cause of all these problems? Is it the failure to have technology which can be appropriate and adopted to insure an increase of food of more than 3.5 percent per annum which is the problem? I think we have to look at it in both these directions. Putting the blame just on population growth I think is just attacking half of the question.
This document also puts an emphasis on production, using the best lands, using high inputs, using irrigation and mechanization. Mr Chairman, as you well know, our colleagues in Commission II are in the process of adopting the Programme of Work and Budget. In that Programme of Work and Budget we are adopting there is a good section on WCARRD follow-up and the principles embodied in WCARRD follow-up. I will name them: equity, people's participation, the role of women in development. How do we balance all of these? We have been called upon by this paper now to give an emphasis on technical inputs. Our colleagues in Commission II are now adopting a document which is going to call upon equity, people's participation and all of the social factors which have to be taken into consideration.
Thirdly, we are talking about the need for increased mechanization. I will only take the question of Africa. It is a continent which is very unmechanized. It is a continent which has a lot of fragile soils. Therefore, while going from almost no mechanization to a condition of high mechanization, it would be absolutely necessary to have a proper study of the selection of appropriate technology of mechanization, be it just bullock drawing or be it just improved hand tools without necessarily jumping from hand tools to tractorization.
There are many implications in this study. I would not wish to go into all of them. I have had the opportunity to discuss this with some of the colleagues, but let me express some of these implications.
National governments are called upon by this paper, of course, to give a lot of emphasis to tackle the problem of increasing food production by the year 2000. Since most of the emphasis is on improved technology, it means that a country such as mine has to produce the kinds of people who will be available to produce the technology, adapt it and take it to the farmers, which means training.
Secondly, it means in the process of adaptation and adoption we have to have a lot of research. It means increasing the research capacity of most of the countries, especially in Africa.
Thirdly, while we are putting emphasis on increasing productivity and improving technology, it means that we cannot at the same time abandon the problems of equity and the tackling of the problems of faraway areas which are not necessarily located on the best available lands. That would require, therefore, substantial support of the national programmes of not only improving technology but also making sure we do not lose sight of the problem of equity.
What are the implications for an organization such as FAO? As we all know, an organization such as FAO has a lot of activities. If the problem as we see it is to feed a growing population by the year 2000, if the emphasis is to increase productivity, does that also call upon an organization such as FAO to redirect also its own activities? Does it require it to reexamine within its programmes the kind of actions which will be aimed at to, first of all, continue these kinds of stories at the country level, identify the highly productive areas and also give support, to the countries in the form of training, technology development, as I have already outlined? What are the implications for donors? Certainly, they have great implication also. It means they will also have to take this document, study it and hopefully the follow-up documents which would be on a country -by-country basis to see the areas in which they could intervene to increase the productivity of the Member States.
I have not given any solutions. I have just raised a lot of questions and a lot of points, but what I wish to say is that my delegation supports the idea that FAO should carry on a more detailed study at the country level which will be aimed at directly bringing out a soil classification for most of the countries such as mine and others which does not really exist on any particular level to be used.
Secondly, to develop the irrigation potential of Member States, especially those which are in great need of it on a country-by-country basis so that they could know which areas could be more adequately used for irrigation purposes, and we therefore support that after this has been completed, this study should be kept under constant review and should be presented in the forthcoming sessions of the Conference.
G. SOTO CARRERO (Cuba): En primer término quisiera, en nombre de la delegación de Cuba, agradecer al Dr. Bommer la elocuente e ilustrada presentación de este tema, un tanto nuevo en nuestras conferencias generales.
Mi delegación se referirá a aspectos generales que a nuestro entender se deben tener en cuenta al analizar este importante tema. La adecuada utilización de tierras cultivables es una preocupación constante de la FAO en su cruzada por garantizar la seguridad alimentaria mundial. La preocupación de la situación alimentaria en el mundo, sin lugar a dudas, está íntimamente relacionada con el crecimiento sufrido en la población mundial en las últimas décadas y la conjetura y proyecciones que se hacen en torno al tamaño que debe alcanzar la población mundial en un plazo tan breve como puede ser el que nos queda hasta el año 2000.
La situación poblacional no es la misma para las diferentes regiones y países, pero tampoco lo es para la disponibilidad de alimentos, si bien se asume que las tasas de crecimiento de la población en los países subdesarrollados experimentará una tendencia decreciente en la cresta del siglo y en los 25 primeros años del siglo próximo, hasta alcanzar así la denominada estabilidad de la población. Es innegable que son los países subdesarrollados, y especialmente los más pobres, los que presentan una situación poblacional más crítica y habrán de soportar un incremento abrumador que ha sido analizado en las proyecciones de Naciones Unidas.
Nuestra delegación considera que el crecimiento acelerado e incontrolado de la población mundial constituye un factor importante en la situación actual y en las perspectivas inmediatas de la alimentación y de la producción agrícola del mundo. El aumento de los rendimientos de la tierra, aspecto vital y determinante para enfrentar la creciente crisis alimentaria en el mundo subdesarrollado, requiere la atención en múltiples factores tales como tenencia formal de la explotación, tecnología avanzada y muy especialmente recursos financieros, tan inciertos como inalcanzables y gravosos para la gran masa de los agricultores del mundo subdesarrollado.
El propio documento C 83/18 que analizamos plantea que ante todo es preciso hacer grandes mejoras en la infraestructura, en las instituciones y en los servicios rurales si se quiere aumentar suficientemente la utilización de insumos.
Según el citado documento estos servicios no han de limitarse al sistema de distribución de insumos, sino que han de abarcar también la extensión de los créditos, la comercialización y el acceso a la tierra, debiéndose tener en cuenta el plan de acción de la Conferencia Mundial de Reforma Agraria y Desarrollo Rural si se quiere explotar plenamente los potenciales de producción para que las poblaciones puedan permitirse una alimentación que cubra los requisitos nutricionales mínimos, lo cual es para nosotros un elemento de desarrollo integral.
Sabido es que en materia de población y de desarrollo existen múltiples tendencias y posiciones, desde aquellas que haciendo honor a las teorías maltusianas, y otras más modernas y actuales, se empeñen en sustentar que los problemas del subdesarrollo obedecen fundamentalmente a un acelerado crecimiento demográfico, hasta los que buscan sacar a la luz las verdaderas relaciones entre el crecimiento poblacional y el desarrollo.
Mi delegación considera que la población y sus diferentes fenómenos poseen un carácter multifacético y son normalmente efectivos en la interacción de muchos factores que aisladamente no pueden ser enfrentados con eficiencia.
Es nuestro criterio que resolver los problemas de la población supone la utilización de un conjunto de políticas e instrumentos que guardan una coherencia lógica y sistemática hacia la búsqueda de un nivel de vida cualitativamente superior. El fenómeno de la población, su crecimiento y la incidencia de éste en la evolución de la economía mundial, y muy especialmente en la crítica situación de países subdesarrollados, no pueden analizarse con seriedad y rigor, si junto con las cifras que indican el crecimiento poblacional que ha de producirse en el mundo subdesarrollado, no se toman en cuenta también los factores socioeconómicos que son la base y la causa principal de dicho crecimiento.
Consideramos que si bien la tierra y su potencial son una condición previa y vital para el desarrollo, si ésta no es bien utilizada en todas sus posibilidades, no se resolverá el grave problema que afecta a la mayoría de la humanidad y en especial a los países más gravemente afectados. El hecho de que determinados países limiten el cultivo de sus tierras disponibles no es una buena muestra de la voluntad de resolver esa situación.
El estudio que ha emprendido la FAO tiene para nosotros un gran valor y nos parecería muy útil que abarcara todos los aspectos globales que en la realidad afectan al uso de la tierra, la producción de alimentos y por ende al bienestar de la población.
J. SONNEVELD (Netherlands): My delegation is impressed by the study submitted to the Conference, and we would like to compliment those who have contributed to it. We feel that such information is badly needed when discussing the policies and programmes to be followed to overcome the food problem as we have them in many regions. This problem is so much in the centre of our attention these days when dealing with the alarming situation in Africa. We know how difficult it is to embark on sound agricultural policies to increase food production and to have the food more adequately distributed. Although we have a long way to go, FAO certainly contributes substantially to a better awareness and understanding of what to do to increase food availability for all people. But today's information also shows the limits of food-producing capacities.
If I understand the presumptions of the present study correctly, the population growth rate is not introduced as a variable. The variables are the different levels of agricultural inputs. These levels of input will depend on future agricultural policies. But why not think in terms of population policies with different levels of results? I think it is within the mandate of FAO to make recommendations in regard to population policies in contributing to the solution of the food and population issue. Especially at the country level, population policies should go hand in hand with food policies. That my Government attaches great importance to population policies is illustrated by the strong financial support it is giving to the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. My delegation hopes to see even more and closer cooperation between FAO and the UNFPA. We consider the present study an encouraging event in this connection and we are looking forward to follow-up studies, especially at the country level.
S.J. KAO (Lesotho): Mr Chairman, may I first add my congratulations to those that have been given on the excellent presentation given this morning on this subject.
In an attempt to look at the totality of the situation under this item, may I refer to the following chain of events: survival, production, land use and degradation of the environment. People farm to live from the produce generated by that activity. Production has been declining over the years. This aspect has been discussed adequately in the past days in this Conference.
The amount and potential of land in the world is fixed, thus limiting the options. On a global basis it appears that there is land that can still be brought under agricultural production, particularly for crop and livestock production: in other words, production of food. However, on a regional and/or national basis, that virgin land is either insignificantly small or non-existent. Lesotho is faced with the latter situation. Therefore, the options are limited indeed. On the slides shown during the presentation, only at the high input level would self-sufficiency be attained in that country.
In an attempt to provide each household with land, particularly in a traditional equity system in Africa, land-holding is fragmented to a point where it is uneconomic to farm. This results in rural/urban migration, part-time farming and associated management problems, increase in fallow land, increase in landless people, and degradation of the farming profession. The climax of all these is frustration, hunger, malnutrition, and high population growth rate.
With these remarks, I support the suggestion made on page 9 of the document with regard to "the need for more detailed national studies" on these events and their interactions with a view to developing an action plan to solve the problems of land, food and population.
The factors I have discussed cannot be left to agricultural extension alone. Agriculture must certainly play its role in developing intensive farming with emphasis on high yields and minimizing erosion risk. As the population increases, greater pressure is brought to bear on maximizing output from the land. Such over-use of the natural resources results in the degradation of the environment, soil erosion, over grazing, desertification, improper land use, and destruction of habitat for flora and fauna, including wildlife. All these are actions of man, pressurized by his own breeding, thus the call for population policies as "an essential element to be considered in policy options for individual countries" is fully supported by my delegation.
I have touched on a number of issues which do not fall within the responsibility of FAO. There are other international organizations within and outside the UN system which are actively pursuing solutions to these problems. We cannot over-emphasize the need for collaboration and coordination in order to expected solutions.
Last, but not least, may I congratulate FAO on the development of this theme, which has been so ably presented. The world's conscience has been activated. It must be spurred into action through discussion of this theme in future conferences.
N.E. MUMBA (Zambia): Mr Chairman, document C 83/18 is quite clear to me. The presentation of this item by the Secretariat has been excellent. It is clear that the correct course of action is to improve the output of production per unit area. At least in Zambia, it is true that if we moved from the present low level input to the next medium level input we would be self-sufficient even by the year 2000, using our presently cultivated land. What we need, therefore, is some realistic input into soil conservation measures, improvement of irrigation facilities, better agronomic practices and more effective but simple methods of food storage. All these need good research facilities. We do hope, therefore, that when Nations, and FAO included, try to solve these problems of food production and population they will tackle some of these items.
It is of course important to remember that programmes that do not involve the local population are not likely to succeed. All programmes must be relevant to the needs of the people.
We feel also that, since the movement of food requires resources, those countries that have favourable resources and are near to countries that have a critical situation of food should receive special attention from donor countries. This would reduce the cost of moving food from one country which has it to those countries that need it.
A. SALGADO SANTOS (Brazil): Mr Chairman, document C 83/18, Land, Food and Population is a summary of a technical study carried out by FAO in collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis with the support of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and deals with the assessment of the potential population-supporting capacities of lands in the developing world in comparison with their actual and projected populations. The study utilizes the information provided by the FAO/Unesco Soil Map of the World, the FAO Agro-Ecological Zones Project and FAO's study, Agriculture: Toward 2000. The study has a special interest and is very opportune because the discussions that will derive from its analysis will contribute to the International Conference on Population to be held in August 1984.
As to the elaboration of the study some methodological restrictions can be pointed out, as is already mentioned in document C 83/18, and I quote the following: (a) It is assumed that all of the potential agricultural land would be used for the 15 major food crops for the grassland production of livestock; (b) Major land improvements, such as reclamation, levelling and flood control, are not considered, nor is the use of specially adopted crops and inputs that could greatly add to productivity in certain areas; (c) no overall estimates of ultimate irrigation potentials are available at the present time and therefore recourse was made to the Agriculture: Toward 2000 data; and (d) There is no inclusion of fish production. On this condition, the results for individual countries may be distorted. The study may thus be considered as a flexible evaluation subject to corrections for each specific national situation.
One should bear in mind that there is an important difference between "agricultural supporting capacity" and " global supporting capacity", this last concept related not only with the capacity of an area to produce food, but also its integration in the international trade system and the exchange of experience, especially that related to technological innovations. It cannot be forgotten that, in this case, the global results would presuppose massive movements of food and probably also population. Land resources are very unevenly distributed in relation to population both between and within the different countries and regions. Within regions, movements of food surplus are often hampered by poor communications, and internationally there are the problems linked to balance of payments and trade barriers. At lower levels of aggregation the results are still less encouraging. If one considers the question of self-sufficiency in food, in the year 2000 the situation would be very difficult for some developing countries, unless there would be a massive increase in technical inputs.
The study also suggests the adjustment of food stocks to population growth so as to (a) have a better equilibrium between crops for internal consumption and those for exports, which could nevertheless cause serious problems of balance of payments; (b) change of popular diets, though one should recognize the difficulties involved in changing cultural habits.
All this considered, my delegation, Mr Chairman, finds that the study under consideration is very comprehensive and should be built on and refined in the future. My delegation thinks that there is the need for more detailed national studies on the subject with less restrictive assumptions and based on fuller data. It also recommends FAO to assist in such national studies and promote and assist better land-use planning and management so as to avoid land degradation and also maximize returns from limited inputs and investment.
I. LUCAN (Czechoslovakia): I am not going to repeat all those nice words which have been said by many previous speakers about the work of the Commission and about the document. In short, I will only say that the delegation of Czechoslovakia appreciates very much the well-balanced presentation of all the documents, and the work that has gone into their preparation.
In the context of this item about food and population which is under discussion, there are several fundamental problems, on which many delegates have already spoken. I would like also to contribute to the fulfillment of the list of general aspects. The gravity of the problems of food production and food security is rightly attracting growing attention not only in our Commission or Conference, but all over the world. Czechoslovakia is aware of the food problem and the possibilities of resolving it in the overall context of the development processes, because the question of eliminating hunger is not only a narrow question of food or financial assistance, but primarily is a question of an approach to the development processes.
In our view an important prerequisite of the solution to the problem of food shortages, of malnutrition and hunger is the creation of necessary conditions and infrastructures in the developing countries, enabling them to train their own specialists in the spheres of agriculture and nutrition, who will be qualified to make an assessment of the situation in their own countries and to take measures based on those analyses.
Dependence on food assistance from other countries and international organizations provides a temporary solution, but offers no prospect of longer-term development. Czechoslovakia is a country which, in the last decade, has built an efficient and large-scale agricultural production on a new socio-economic basis and has eliminated not only the socio-economic but also the technological gap between agriculture and industry. My country now has sufficient experience which it is prepared to share with the developing countries. The acute urgency of the problem of food points up with clarity the need to acquire resources by preventing their wastage and misuse for the financing of activities sharply at variance with efforts to eliminate hunger and malnutrition. There can be no right to food where the right to life is not guaranteed.
At present we must not overlook the links between the securing of food and disarmament. The policy of armament and deteriorating international tension directly or indirectly has an impact on satisfying the needs and requirements of developing countries.
In conclusion, I would touch on the problem of the restructuring of international economic relations. In our view, in finding a solution it is necessary to tackle such problems as the elimination of all forms of economic discrimination for political or any other reason and, of course, general normalization of international trade and economic relations. This should include the elimination of hypocrisy with which the need to eliminate protectionism is being stressed, but at the same time, it is being increasingly practised.
H. CARRION (Nicaragua): Seré muy breve, Señor Presidente. Desde luego, el tema que está en estudio en esta Comisión I es muy importante.
La producción de alimentos es una actividad donde fundamentalmente se requieren los esfuerzos, recursos y voluntades del hombre para lograr una distribución y un uso racional del recurso tierra con una dosis de eficiencia tecnologica adecuada.
El excelente estudio de la FAO contenido en el documento C 83/18, demuestra que la tierra, por varias décadas, no será un factor limitante para producir más alimentos. Son las sociedades y los hombres, en su coyuntura histórica y social, los que determinan las posibilidades de seguridad para autoabastecerse.
Por ello, es necesario crear las bases de equidad nacional, regional y mundial para definir principios de apoyo y seguridad en las áreas de cooperación técnica y financiera. Esto orientado al aprovechamiento apropiado y eficiente de los recursos naturales tendentes a lograr la producción sostenida y estable de alimentos.
La problemática de producción de alimentos para satisfacer los niveles de consumo popular de la población en los países en desarrollo es producto y consecuencia de estructuras productivas obsoletas y dependientes.
La posibilidad de los países en desarrollo de penetrar en el marco de la autosuficiencia alimentaria y de lograr su propia seguridad en el suministro de productos alimenticios, sólo es viable transformando las estructuras económicas, tecnificando y favoreciendo significativamente el acceso a la tierra y a los insumos.
Todo esfuerzo de mejoramiento de la eficiencia tecnológica deberá acompañarse de acciones y políticas para sostener la base productiva más importante, que es el recurso suelo en sus aspectos de fertilidad y composición física.
Esto implica que habrá que apoyar medidas inmediatas para el manejo y conservación técnica de los suelos agrícolas. La prioridad debe ser sujeto de atención en los países donde las tecnologías de producción son tradicionales o la agricultura es de subsistencia.
En resumen, la problemática de autosuficiencia y seguridad agroalimentaria no descansa solamente en una escala mayor de superficie sembrada, sino en aquellas acciones que permitan un uso racional y efectivo de los recursos agroecológicos; de una más dinámica decision y voluntad política de los gobiernos y países por incentivar la apertura a mediano plazo de áreas productivas bajo riego. Esto también propiciando un mayor acceso a la tierra y un manejo tecnologico más eficiente de las áreas de secano tradicional de buen potencial agroecologico.
Todo esfuerzo que se realice en este sentido deberá complementarse efectivamente con programas integrales de asistencia técnica, investigación, crédito, organización y capacitación agrícola.
La cooperación agrícola internacional para los países en desarrollo deberá no sólo sustentarse en servicios de asesoría y asistencia técnica, sino que programáticamente deberá desarrollarse mediante el apoyo financiero a proyectos de inversión para la apertura de áreas de tecnificación y programas de conservación de suelos y agua.
R.C. GUPTA (India): My delegation would like to wholeheartedly commend the Organization and other organs of the United Nations system on presenting this excellent and timely study. We found the presentation of Dr Bommer brilliant and convincing.
We feel that this study has come at a very opportune time, and it will help substantially in increasing the awareness of the world community, and particularly the decision-makers, regarding the various dimensions of the problems we are facing or are likely to face in the near or long-term future. This will help in the intelligent understanding of a problem, of which we are acutely aware. We appreciate that the study suffers from certain limitations for lack of information, for lack of clear conceptualization of certain imponderables, but overall it is an admirable attempt.
The study gives various scenarios on low input use level, the intermediate level and the high input use level. The study rightly emphasizes that certain population policies have to be followed by countries if they are to be reasonably certain that in the future those countries will be able to feed their populations. We find it particularly attractive in that not too much emphasis has been laid on food self-sufficiency in individual countries or regions, and care has been taken to state very clearly that food self-sufficiency should not be the aim of every area or country. If the advantage lies in industrial development or exportation of other resources, certainly such countries can find finance to import all the food they require.
One of the serious drawbacks of the present study, in our view, is that while computing the available land resources, adequate care has not been taken to earmark land for forestry of for non-agricultural use. The study talks extensively of the danger of soil erosion and ecological degradation; it is acutely conscious of this fact, but even then - for valid reasons I am sure - no care has been taken to ensure that minimum essential areas at least which should be under permanent vegetation cover are not included in land resources available for cultivation for food or non-food crops.
The study lays proper emphasis on policies to be followed at national and international levels. In this context, I would briefly like to dwell upon our experience. In our view, the problem of increasing food production and the problem of development with equity are very essential and important features which cannot be overlooked. We have an easy option, of concentrating on bigger farms, on more fertile areas, and perhaps in the long run we might be able to increase our food production more easily by concentrating on these aspects, but we must ensure simultaneously that this development or this increased production or this growth, is accompanied by equity. Only yesterday we were speaking of economic access to food. Unless we are sure that the smallholders, the share-croppers or the poor areas get adequate attention to increase their productivity, their potential production increases will be tackling the problem, maybe in a macro sense, but at the macro level where the human problem exists, they will be leaving a lot of areas untended.
In India, we have taken particular care to ensure that gains in productivity are shared by areas which are poor in terms of soil fertility, in terms of their access to various inputs and where the holdings are small and income is low and where we are making an all-out effort to increase food production in this area.
One particular aspect which I would like to point out is our failure, and not perhaps just the failure in India alone but in most of the areas where rainfed farming is practised, to find suitable implements for these areas. Smallholders under dry land farming conditions cannot be expected to adopt sophisticated technology, to buy tractors or to tractorise their lands. We have to find suitable, efficient and cheap implements for them.
In this field, in our experience, scientific research and development is completely lacking, We would urge the Organization and all concerned to concentrate on this area and to find a solution to this serious problem.
Another problem in the field of inputs is the use of pesticides in tropical climates like ours. We have a whole host of pests and diseases and our problems are much more serious than the problems of the temperate zones or sub-tropical areas. But the pesticides or the development of the research into the field of pesticides are such that we do not get the right kind of pesticides to deal with pests, we do not get the right type of weedicides. Their residue effect in our kind of climate is completely different. It could be extremely hazardous, and we are aware that there are certain pesticides which are banned in some developed countries which are being sold with impunity in our areas. The international community, the FAO and international organizations must take particular care of this aspect.
With regard to population policies, I would briefly like to state that we in India have been making serious efforts for the last three decades to contain our population, but under the political system which we have deliberately chosen for ourselves we certainly cannot imagine any coercion, It has to be purely voluntary. It has to be based on persuasion and education of the people.
We are heartened that only last month the UN System recognized the efforts made by our great neighbour China and ourselves in evolving policies to contain population. The Minister of China and our Prime Minister were given the World Population Award.
All in all, we are extremely happy with this study and we would encourage the organization to refine it further, to clarify certain concepts further and to come up with a charter, a compendium which can be a reliable foundation on which to base country and international policies.
The meeting rose at 12.30 hours
La séance est levée à 12 h 30
Se levanta la sesión a las 12.30 horas
