2. OVERVIEW

2.1 Aquaculture Production
2.2 Projections for the Future
2.3 Trends and Prospects for Development

2.1 Aquaculture Production

Aquaculture, or the farming of aquatic animals and plants, continues to be a growth sector responding to an increasing number of markets. Aquaculture produces a variety of products including salmon, shrimp and oysters, which appeal to the gourmet demands of the international markets, freshwater fishes such as tilapias and carps which provide most of the basic nutritional needs of the developing countries, and seaweeds which are refined and used intensively by the food industries.

Fish is the cheapest source of animal protein. It does not provide the calories of meat, but its high protein content and nutritional efficiency make fish and fish products in popular demand for general health and recommended medically for basic nutrition and recuperative diets. Also, fish has the highest feed conversion rate of the animal groups. Weight for weight, fish requires less units of energy, demands less gross space, and has a higher productivity than all domestic farm animals including poultry. However, this being said, comparisons of aquaculture with agriculture are not particularly relevant as these efficiencies are not closely related to economic efficiencies or advantages.

Total world fisheries production in 1985 was 82 million metric tons (t). Inland waters supplied 9.7 million t, or nearly 11% of the world harvest. About 72% of the total production was consumed directly; the remaining 28% was converted into fishmeal or oil for industrial uses of which the major share went into animal feeds.

Aquaculture produced about 10.2 million t of fish and other aquatic products, or 13% of the total contribution to world fisheries harvests. This ADCP estimate for global aquaculture production in 1983 (Table 2) was derived from data supplied by governments. When reviewing the data in Table 2 it must be borne in mind that the criteria for collecting and transferring aquaculture statistics differ amongst governments. Predictions of future growth in aquaculture production are only valid if these criteria remain the same. In 1983, the five leading countries (China, Japan, India, Korea and the Philippines), all in Asia, accounted for 75% of global aquaculture production (with 31% of their production attributed to undried seaweeds).

Table 2. Summary of Aquaculture Production (in tonnes) by FAO Regions

FAO Region	Finfish	Molluscs	Crustacea	Seaweeds	Totals
Africa	43 553	286	26		49 865
Asia/Pacific 1/	3 357 978	2 586 464	75 644	2 392 045	8 412 131
Europe/Near East	726 530	494 719	162	100	1 221 511
South America	167 797	30 883	20 188	1 637	220 505
North America	152 088	133 178	27 425		312 691
Totals	4 447 946	3 245 530	123 445	2 393 782	10 210 703

Source: ADCP data (1983) as supplied by governments

^1/ The Pacific is included in this FAO region but no production is reported

In addition to the regional variations in aquaculture production noted in Table 2, aquaculture commodities themselves were not evenly distributed. Whereas cultured seaweeds and molluscs (oysters, mussels, and clams) accounted for significant proportions of the total world production of these items, cultured finfish and crustaceans contributed relatively small proportions of the total harvest of these groups (Table 3).

Table 3. Contributions from Aquaculture to the World Supply of Fisheries Products (1983 data) in tonnes

Source	Finfish	Crustacea	Molluscs	Seaweeds
Capture Fisheries (less aquaculture)	62 753 000	3 069 000	878 000	811 000
Culture Fisheries	4 448 000	123 000	3 246 000	2 394 000
Percent Share of Culture Fisheries in World Supply	7	4	79	75

Source: FAO Yearbook of Statistics (1983) less the ADCP data as supplied by governments

Data supplied by governments to FAO through a detailed survey (see Annex 1) show that a 1984/85 production figure for fish, crustaceans and molluscs is about 8.87 million t. Algae and aquatic plants are excluded from this total. Although this FAO data and that of the ADCP in 1983 differ in their origins and base, it is evident that production of these aquaculture commodities has increased by an order of magnitude of 1 million t, or 13%.

Production data being collected currently by ADCP for 1986 from all sources (such as country statements and national plans, delegates' reports, FAO/ADCP missions, and publications of all types), and also included in Annex 1, indicate that many countries have increased production again. On the other hand, the data show that some national production has decreased, or countries have been over-optimistic in their figures reported to FAO.

2.2 Projections for the Future

If the current (1983) global aquaculture production is projected to the year 2000, based on:

(1) trends in productivity growth (GDP) during the past decade for countries grouped according to their economies vis-a-vis World Bank indicators,

(2) the assumption that the same statistical criteria used in compiling the data in Table 2 will continue to be used, and

(3) current species apportionment and the economic disposition of the regions will remain the same,

it will reach about 22.2 million t, or about double the 1983 level (Table 4). At this rate, aquaculture production will account for approximately 25% of the total contribution of world fisheries production.

Table 4. Projected Global Production of Aquaculture (in thousand tonnes) for the Year 2000 based on the Average Growth Rate of GDP applied to Different Grouped Economies

Principal Country Group		GDP (%)1/ 1973-1983	Production 2/ 1983	Production 2000
1. Low Income Economies
	China/India	5.7	5 318	13 647
	Others	3.5	249	446
	Sub-Sahara Africa 3/	2.0	2	3
2. Middle Income Economies
	Low-oil exporters	4.6	257	532
	Low-oil importers	4.3	828	1 694
	Upper-oil exporters	4.6	165	335
	Upper-oil Importers	4.3	777	1 589
	Sub-Sahara Africa 3/	1.6	1+	2
3. Industrial Market Economies		2.4	2 097	3 138
4. East European Non-Market		(2.4) 4/	517	774
Total				22 200

^1/ Source: World Development Report (1986), World Bank

^2/ Source: ADCP data (1983) as supplied by governments

^3/ Source: Toward Sustained Development in Sub-Saharan Africa - A Joint Program of Action (1984), World Bank

^4/ No actual figure is given in the data from ^1/ above. The same figure as the Industrial Market Economies has been used

In contrast to the anticipated 0.3% annual average increase from wild ocean landings up to the year 2000 this projection suggests that world aquaculture production will increase by an average of 5.5% annually. This is not unreasonable (as indicated by the 1984/85 data reported above), although it should be noted that the distribution of production amongst the four main groups (fish, crustaceans, molluscs and seaweeds) and the five geographic regions will change significantly (Table 5). In Africa, for example, projected production increases from aquaculture may be grossly underestimated in these projections; in Asia projected increases may be overly optimistic. Table 5 therefore presents the projected outputs from aquaculture production for the year 2000 based on growth in GDP during the past decade together with an indication of likely redistributions amongst species groups and geographical regions as projected by ADCP.

Table 5. Projected Production Data for the Year 2000(from Table 4) Reallocated by Region and Major Aquaculture Groups (in million tonnes) together with a Predicted Adjustment To the Projected Data

Region/Group		Production 1983	Production 2000	Predicted Adjustment (Degree of Change) 1/
1. Region
	Africa	0.05	0.10	++
	Asia and Pacific	8.41	18.29	--
	Europe/Near East	1.22	2.65	·
	South America	0.22	0.48	++
	North America	0.31	0.68	+
2. Aquaculture Group
	Finfish	4.45	9.67	++
	Molluscs	3.25	7.06	·
	Crustaceans	0.12	0.27	+
	Seaweeds	2.39	5.20	-
Totals for each		10.21	22.20

Note ^1/ (++) and (+) indicate degree of change anticipated to the projected production in the Year 2000 for reasons as explained in the text. (+) indicates higher production; (-) lower production; and (·) a similar estimate

2.3 Trends and Prospects for Development

The particular economic characteristics of each of the five geographic areas, coupled with the diversity of existing aquaculture techniques, will continue to generate substantial differences in investment opportunities and assistance needs. A brief explanation of the outlook in each area, with particular attention to future requirements for capital and technical assistance follows:

- AFRICA requires continuous assistance at all levels. This should be directed towards pond culture, carefully selected types of integrated farming, and fisheries enhancement. Inland fisheries merit the greatest public support, leaving the private sector to develop brackishwater and marine aquaculture potential. Assistance priorities are policy making and planning, production and marketing. Research and development should be restricted to low-technology applications and confined to well-supported centres participating in networks. In Africa, capital assistance must be provided with attention Co socio-economic problems such as ownership and availability of markets.

- ASIA (all sub-regions) continues to be the vanguard of aquaculture development, although some countries remain weak. The private sector is established and now has the initiative in most countries in the region. Assistance continues to be required for certain sectoral components, such as national management and infrastructure, which lag behind production. Increased attention to aspects such as planning, applied research on certain species, the introduction of selected new culture systems, marketing, legal provisions, and interaction with other activities, will develop regional and national capacities to provide TCDC support not only in bio-technological training but throughout the sector. For Asia, reaching projected aquaculture production targets will depend largely on the improved availability of credit financing and operating capital, particularly for small- and medium-sized farm systems, to enable the existing aquacultural technologies to be utilized by the private sector.

- LATIN AMERICA remains weak in aquaculture development but has considerable potential. Priorities are with the higher-value products and semi-intensive systems; there is little tradition for consuming cultured fish. Individual owner/operators are unable to obtain land and water rights and thus priorities for production assistance will be fisheries enhancement projects in lakes and reservoirs. Assistance has to be increased at all levels with emphasis on policy making and planning, training and extension, production-oriented research, and marketing. Active regional programmes and inter-regional cooperation could advance the limited opportunities for TCDC. Priority for technical assistance projects in Latin America should be given to research and development of viable production operations. In particular, value-added products must be developed which can be used to help consumer acceptance of fish. Capital assistance projects should pay attention to socio-economic problems of ownership for land-based aquaculture operators as existing land ownership policies continue to limit the effective application of capital aid for aquaculture in many countries in this region.

- The MEDITERRANEAN and the NEAR EAST regions, assuming the sustained regional collaboration instigated by multinational and bilateral assistance, require only selective support. Assistance is appropriate to sustain regional management and to promote cooperation. Policy making and planning are high priorities for the North African countries, and national and local infrastructure in all countries. National markets must be given priority and economic production systems geared to them since Western European export market potential is limited. Increased production from coastal lagoons and inland freshwater areas and through local infrastructure improvements for existing pond farmers is feasible.

- The island communities in the CARIBBEAN and OCEANIA cannot compete in international markets for aquaculture products, with the exception of a few indigenous high-value crops. Production, and therefore assistance, must be geared Co national and tourist markets. While the most profitable national investment in Oceania is reef management with enhancement through aquaculture where necessary, in the heavily populated islands of the Caribbean the priority is for protein from freshwater fish production. All island communities need infrastructure in training and extension services, and for local input resource development. Research and development is not a priority. Regional cooperation will provide benefits, particularly for upper- and mid-level management levels. The priority is for policy making and planning to identify specific needs and to limit investment to rational levels.

In terms of the future economic outlook for the four main cultured fisheries groups themselves, a significant proportion of increased production is likely to come from seaweeds and molluscs. Although the food industry will continue its demand for refined algal products in relation to population growth, and mollusc farming requires the least investment and is the most intensive in terms of volumetric production, it is unlikely that seaweed and mollusc production can double considering their existing high levels and dominance in Asia.

Greater contributions to increased aquaculture must come from fish production. Great gains in quantity can be obtained from culture-based fisheries (namely extensive aquaculture systems), and from enhancement of the open seas, lakes, reservoirs, and the temporary water barrages of irrigation projects in developing countries. Semi-intensive and intensive systems in land-based and offshore-based farms will produce much less by comparison because of their high investment and operating costs, but their products will diversify the industry and appeal to more selective markets. However, if global aquaculture production is to reach the target of 22.2 million t by the year 2000, fish production will have to contribute a greater percentage of the total than it does now.

The farming of shrimps and prawns will never contribute significantly to massive global growth given the capital intensity required. However, in specific micro-economies aquaculture production of all crustaceans will be very important.

With the growing pressure on international financial resources, future assistance to aquaculture has to be highly selective; the application of assistance must promote applied business management and entrepreneurial ability wherever possible. Past attempts to force the pace of development where these skills have been lacking have generally ended in failure. Continued assistance, both in the form of capital and technical aid for aquaculture will be most valuable when provided in conjunction with the simultaneous development of biotechnical and socio-economic in-country policy and management skills.