The questionnaires and the survey methodology are now such that a Pilot Survey in the Northern Province is the next step in the development of the survey. However, it must be understood that definitive results revealing the traits of the “typical” fish-farmer in rural communities in Southern Africa will only emerge at the earliest by the end of 1989. The Pilot Survey must be followed by at least one full-scale survey in Zambia and by similar full-scale surveys in other countries of the region. It is essential that such an effort be led by a socio-economist assigned full-time to the Programme.
The objective of the pilot survey should be twofold:
to produce a detailed report on the “Current Situation and Outlook” for the Northern Province (or for a part of it as appropriate);
to make possible the Programme's first complete analysis of the information collected about fish-farmers in rural communities in Zambia.
When finalized this should provide a complete methodology for the full-scale survey.
It is of utmost importance for the results of the Pilot survey in the Northern Province that qualified and interested staff be involved. The questionnaires are but a mechanism and the conclusions eventually drawn from their analysis will depend on the manner in which the information was obtained and recorded.
In this context the consultant strongly recommends the participation of Mr J. Mutale, aquaculturist counterpart to the Programme and Mr Hans Aase of the Programme.
A 1986 census of fish-farmers in the Northern Province resulted in a total of 731. It is uncertain whether or not this number includes former fish-farmers (that is, those who have ponds but do not use them for fish culture). If so, it would seem that a sample of 100, plus interviews with 30 potential farmers, should give a sufficient coverage to obtain an idea of the considerations of the average fish-farmer in the Northern Region. The proportion of practising fish-farmers to be interviewed should reflect their proportion in the total number (731). If a control of the census figures reveals that the total recorded number does not include the former aquaculturists, the consultant recommends that the survey be limited to a part of the Northern Province.
In order to minimize logistical difficulties, it is proposed that the sample be selected through cluster sampling, where the cluster be the ward (or equivalent sub-division of the district). For this to be practicable, it must be possible to locate the 731 fish-farmers by the wards in which they have their ponds. The sampling will be limited to practising and former fish-farmers. Potential fish-farmers will be identified by the enumerators in the course of the survey.
Appendix 8 contains the consultant's suggestions for the more practical details of the survey.
The analysis will be carried out in Lusaka after the survey. In essence it will aim to identify different categories of fish-farmers and the features which distinguish them from other groups, either in their economic, political, cultural background, or in the nature and character of their economic activities. A subsequent step in the analysis will attempt to find, within these categories, homogeneities with regard to the factors studied.
The analysis should be carried out using a micro-computer. On return to Rome, the consultant will advise the Programme of suitable software and hardware, and suggest a coding procedure for the questionnaires. The ideal procedure for analysing the results of the pilot survey would be:
coding of forms in Lusaka;
entry of data on micro-computer disks (hardware to be identified) in Lusaka;
dispatch of disks (copies) to the consultant;
the consultant undertakes preliminary analysis of data in his office;
the finalization of analysis and report-writing is done jointly by the Programme staff and the consultant in Lusaka.
Already at this time it would seem prudent that the Programme begin preparations for the full-scale surveys. At this time the consultant is of the opinion that these should comprise at least one such survey in Zambia and three in other countries of the region.
When the pilot survey has been completed, it would be, appropriate to formally introduce this survey to the Department of Fisheries as a system for monitoring fish-farming in the country. Its introduction to the Department might best be carried out through workshops with concerned personnel and advice, on a consultancy basis, by the Programme during the Department's initial surveys.
In turn this would be followed by the introduction of this methodology in other countries involved in the Programme.
An efficient continuation of the Survey of Fish-Farmers in Rural Communities will require:
the leadership of a full-time professional staff member with a social science background;
at least one portable micro-computer with associated software and hardware.
