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Export earnings growth in 1992

The 5 percent increase in the dollar value of exports of agricultural, fishery and forestry products in 1992 (Table 3) largely reflected the 7 percent rise in the agricultural component. Deflating these values by the 3 percent overall rise in unit values of manufactures and crude petroleum, shows a 2 percent increase in the purchasing power of global exports between 1991 and 1992. The real value of exports of the developed countries rose 4 percent, contrasting with the 2 percent decrease in the purchasing power of exports from the developing countries. Their forest product exports declined in purchasing power as did some agricultural products including: coffee, by 22 percent; tea, by 16 percent; cotton by 15 percent, though these were largely offset by increases for cereals, of 25 percent; vegetable oils and oilcakes, of 6 percent; sugar, of 7 percent and continued growth in diverse exports such as chocolate and sugar confectionery.

The growth in agricultural export earnings owed much to the rise in the volume of exports of 5 percent, the overall index of export unit values rising by only 2 percent (Table 4). However, for the developing countries the continued and relatively strong growth in volume, 7 percent up, was accompanied by a decrease in unit values of 5 percent. For them, the index of unit values fell to 80 percent of its level in 1979-81 and was lower than in any previous year. In real terms the decline from 1979-81 to 1992 was 37 percent. In contrast, the index of export unit values for the developed countries continued to move upwards to a record 131 and in real terms it was slightly higher than in 1979-81.

TABLE 3. Exports of agricultural, fishery and forestry products by value

¹ Values at current prim deflated by the rise in pose of manufactured exports and crude petroleum since 1979-81 as shown in Table 2.
Source: FAO Statistics Division and Commodities and Trade Division.

TABLE 4. Export indices: main agricultural commodities¹

¹ As listed in FAO Trade Yearbook.
Source: FAO Statistics Division.

Contraction in Africa's exports

In contrast to growth in agricultural, fishery and forestry exports in the developing countries as a whole in 1992, Africa's exports fell 8 percent to $11 000 million (Table 6), with a similar fall in the agricultural component to $8 300 million. The decline in Africa's agricultural exports partly reflected decreased earnings from coffee, cocoa, cotton, tobacco and the effects of the widespread drought. Comparison with the years 1979-81 and removing the effects of inflation, shows a decline in the region's export purchasing power of 30 percent.

Import growth highest in Africa in 1992

Imports of agricultural, fishery and forestry products expanded in all regions in 1992 (Table 7). The largest expansion was in Africa where food imports in particular increased by 26 percent to $10 000 million following the effects of drought on crop production in the region. It was also of concern that in 1992 Africa turned from being a region with reasonably balanced trade in agricultural, fishery and forestry products to a position of substantial net deficit. Both Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean maintained their net export position in these products while the Near East continued to be the main net importing developing region.

Real growth in export earnings likely in 1993 and 1994

Indications of export performance in 1993 were for overall growth in the purchasing power of agricultural, fishery and forestry exports. Important contributions to this growth were expected to have come from the beverage crops, oilseeds and vegetable oils, and from further growth in exports of diverse products covered by the 'other agricultural exports' row at the bottom of Table 5. This growth was likely to maintain the dollar value of agricultural exports while the decline in unit values of manufactures and crude petroleum should have enhanced the purchasing power of these exports. In contrast, indications for forest products were for a decline in the dollar value of exports reflecting, in particular, lower prices for wood pulp. Further overall growth in the purchasing power of agricultural, fishery and forestry products was expected for 1994 with some improvement in the terms of trade of these exports.

Table 5. Exports of agricultural, fishery and forestry products by value

¹ Including cocoa products.
² Net exporting countries.
³ Including pimento, capsicum, and chilies.
⁴ Excluding butter (shown separately) and marine oils included in fishery products).
⁵ Excluding fishmeal (included in fishery products).
⁶ From fibre producing countries only.
⁷ Hides and skins of all types.
Sources: FAO Statistics Division and Commodities and Trade Division.

Table 6. Exports of all merchandise and agricultural, fishery and forestry products

¹ Low-income food-deficit countries (with per caput GNP of $1235 or less in 1992 and rot imports of cereals).
Source: FAO Statistics Division.

TABLE 7. Imports of all merchandise and agricultural, fishery and forestry products

¹ Low-income food-deficit countries (with per caput GNP of $1235 or less in 1992 and net imports of cereals).
Source: FAO Statistics Division.

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