The objectives of this paper are:
· to summarize the major policy issues and opportunities confronting many of the governments in the Asia-Pacific region, in trying to achieve sustainable and equitable use and management of their forests. There are significant pressures on governments, and by governments, to exercise much greater control over what happens within forests;· to help identify trends in the forestry sector, and their broader underlying economic, demographic and social causes, particularly in regard to who will manage which forests in the future, for what objectives. These include pressures for decentralization, corporatization, privatization and devolution to local community groups, as part of widespread moves to smaller governments "who concentrate on steering the boat, rather than rowing it";
· to indicate the current social and economic significance of forests to the people who live in/near tropical forests in the Asia-Pacific region, and to suggest possibilities for improving the current social, economic and environmental conditions concerning forests and the people who live in/near them;
· to examine some of the development opportunities in the forestry sector, and the possible long-term trade-offs between economic, social and environmental objectives and needs, and also the potential for negotiating "win-win" outcomes; and
· to look for options for possible policy and institutional reforms, particularly by national governments in the Asia Pacific region to achieve preferred outcomes in 2010 and beyond, and how these might also be supported and reinforced by international efforts.
Economic: Globalization of product markets has been fostered by trade liberalization, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) leading eventually to the establishment of the World Trade Organization, and stable or declining real prices of transport. Integration and greater international mobility of capital in global markets has been facilitated by technological innovations in information flows - the Internet, satellite telephone communications etc. that mean that financial markets and stock exchanges are open to global players, somewhere in the world every hour of the day.
These are reflected in rapid expansion of industries, the financial-communications sector and agribusiness. Production of export crops and primary commodities is likely to both expand in area and intensify yields/hectare in existing areas. Rapid economic growth, and rising affluence especially in the urban areas across the region, moderate increases in incomes across the production zones of farms, factories and industrial forests, but to a much lesser extent in remote rural areas (where most remaining natural forest areas are located). Increased emphasis on trade and industrialization, to maximize domestic employment generation and value added, especially for exports of primary products. Dis-investment and depletion of natural forests to finance investments in other sectors. The need to increase production and decrease unit costs stimulates plantation development, in the higher income countries with relatively cheap land, or developing countries with cheap land and labour. In remote hinterlands, forests are frontiers for the conversion to large- or small-scale agriculture, and/or valued by traditional societies for NTFPs, cultural and localized environmental benefits.
Environmental: Increasing environmental awareness, including biodiversity conservation and threats of global climate change, but also "green consumerism" sometimes also with emphasis on social issues. Environmental concerns across the region tend to be local/national, rather than global, and more the concern of affluent/educated urban groups or traditional societies adversely affected by economic developments. Increasing pressures (both internally and externally, for example, through the Convention on Biological Diversity) for environmental protection and conservation. Forests will increasingly be seen as much more than "wood-producing factories or tree-farms".
Political: Deregulation; smaller governments; the expanding role of the private sector, and "civil society", especially the non-governmental (voluntary) sector - privatization and devolution Increasing co-ordination and regional action, especially APEC but also with the expanded (10-member) ASEAN (particularly the preparations for abolition of internal tariffs by 2005) and to a lesser extent, SAARC and SPC/Forum. Increasing recognition of the significance of forests to local people's livelihoods throughout the region, and conversely, the influence/importance of local people on whether or not the protection and management of forests (whether natural or plantation) will be successful. The combination of these two considerations, especially in conjunction with the more general trends summarized above, has led to numerous policy experiments with devolving more management responsibility to forest-local communities. While this is widely believed to be compatible with the environmental trend above, it seems to be quite inconsistent with trends regarding trade and utilization. The role of the State is changing, from active commercial production, to supervising and stimulating private sector, civil society and NGO activities.
Status Quo policies, accompanied by increasing affluence in the region
Modifying Policies to maximize the potential contribution from the Forestry Sector
Economic growth and trade liberalization will stimulate markets and trade within the region (with exports to North America and Europe becoming relatively less important). It is quite likely throughout Asia, especially in the economies with relatively high economic growth and slower population growth, that the rural population will be much less than today.
The forestry sector can contribute to the economic development of many countries of the region, but in most, it will not be THE driving factor behind rapid economic growth. Even in countries where Forestry has been a very major contributor (like Indonesia) its relative share will decline as other sectors expand much more rapidly. This may lead to changing emphasis within the forestry sector, if forests become less critical for job-creation and foreign-exchange earnings, and conservation values become higher priority to more affluent (and urban) populations.
To stop forest conversion and achieve conservation, it may not be necessary to stop logging outright, or to stop logging in all new areas, but rather to reform the policies that presently make forest colonization attractive. This might include the pull factors (how to reduce the profitability of illegally clearing forests, or of speculating in land that was supposed to be kept as forest) or the push factors (how to increase the limited employment or livelihood options outside of forests). The evidence from the rapid economic growth of Asian tiger economies is that as employment and income prospects outside the agriculture sector improve, fewer people want to undertake the dangerous, illegal, difficult and often unprofitable activities of temporary agriculture in forest lands. However, if the new land use is very profitable (e.g. growing cocoa, coffee, cinnamon, rubber, fruit trees) and the potential capital gains from "capturing" some real estate from the government forests are high, rapid forest conversion may continue.
Forests will be permitted to remain when the people deciding the forests' fate conclude that the continued existence of forests generates higher incomes (or cultural or social values) than their removal. If not, forests are cleared. Some remaining natural forests are not worth exploiting as they lack commercially valuable species, are remote or inaccessible. Since it would cost more to exploit them than their current commercial value, it is more economic to leave them (for now!) People living in such remote forest areas may be permitted to enjoy the many traditional, non-commercial benefits of forests, but may be denied access to many modern goods and services by the very inaccessibility that protects their forest.
Land use planning will attempt to set aside enough of all forest types to meet the diverse and continuously evolving demands of society. Many more natural forest areas are likely to be managed for amenity, conservation, recreation and landscape values expressed by affluent urban populations, or as indigenous peoples' homes, in association with production of NTFPs, environmental values and cultural values.
"How much land is enough for production forestry?" depends on the nature and substitutability of the demands for the products, and changes in productivity. Technology will increase tree growth in plantations; improved management will enable greater production from natural forests with fewer adverse impacts, and wastage in extraction and processing will continue to decline as technologies and management improve.
