Economic: The obvious economic trends have been the globalization of product markets, trade liberalization, (e.g. the establishment of the World Trade Organization). This has been accompanied by integration and greater international mobility of capital in global markets. These trends are in turn reflected in rapid expansion of industries, the financial-communications sector and agribusiness. Production of export crops and primary commodities has expanded in area and intensified (i.e. higher yields/hectare in existing areas).
Political: Deregulation; smaller governments; the expanding role of the private sector, and "civil society", especially the non-governmental (voluntary) sector - privatization and devolution - have been the hallmarks of this period.
Environmental: Increasing environmental awareness, including biodiversity conservation and threats of global climate change, but also "green consumerism" sometimes also with emphasis on social issues. The moves towards, and then the consequences of, the UNCED conventions, especially the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the continuing debates about a legally-binding global Forests Convention, have heightened awareness of forestry issues world-wide. The debates of the Intergovernmental panel on Forests in 1995-97 builds upon a short but intense history of international forestry-environmental negotiations.
Economic: Rapid economic growth, and rising affluence especially in the urban areas across the region, moderate increases in incomes across the production zones of farms, factories and industrial forests, but to a much lesser extent in remote rural areas (where most remaining natural forest areas are located). This has intensified differentials in wealth both within and between countries.
Political: Increasing co-ordination and regional action, especially the expanded (10-member) ASEAN (particularly the preparations for abolition of internal tariffs by 2005) and to a lesser extent, APEC, SAARC and the South Pacific Commission and Forum.
Environmental: Environmental concerns across the region tend to be more with local/national issues, rather than global. The latter tend to be more the concern of affluent/educated urban groups while the former are of particular concern for traditional societies adversely affected by industrial developments.
Economic: Many governments have continuously emphasized trade and industrialization, to maximize domestic employment generation and value added, especially through exports of processed primary products. In many places, there has been significant dis-investment and depletion of natural forests to finance investments in other sectors. The need to increase production and decrease unit costs stimulates plantation development, in the higher income countries with relatively cheap land, or developing countries with cheap land and labour. In remote hinterlands, forests are frontiers for the conversion to large- or small-scale agriculture, and/or valued by traditional societies for NTFPs, cultural and localized environmental benefits.
Environmental: Increasing pressures are being exerted (both internally and externally, for example, through the Convention on Biological Diversity) for environmental protection and conservation. Forests are increasingly seen as much more than "wood-producing factories or tree-farms".
Political/social: The past 2 decades has seen increasing recognition of the significance of forests to local people's livelihoods throughout the region, and conversely, the influence/importance of local people on whether or not the protection and management of forests (whether natural or plantation) will be successful. The combination of these two considerations, especially in conjunction with the more general trends summarized above, has led to numerous policy experiments with devolving more management responsibility to forest-local communities. While this is widely believed to be compatible with the environmental trend above, it seems to be quite inconsistent with trends regarding trade and utilization. As will be documented below, the role of the State is changing, from being actively engaged in commercial production, to supervising and stimulating private sector, civil society and NGO activities.
The Asia Pacific region, has consistently been the most economically and socially dynamic region in the world over the past three decades! We have witnessed very rapid increase in GNPs (from 4 to 10 % per annum) and disposable incomes across the region, (See Tables 1 and 2) and there is no basis to expect this trend to stop, or even slow. It may actually accelerate with recent macro-economic and political reforms in China, India and Indonesia - the emergent super-economies of the region and the World.
The most striking and significant trend from the 1970s to the 1990s has been the very rapid spread of the market economy. In particular we have witnessed the integration of the rural economies of Asia-Pacific countries into the global economy and so gradual integration of even the more remote rural/forest villages into the market system. Globalization of both capital markets and product markets, and of information flows (the so-called "Information Superhighway") has already led to socio-economic stratification and differentiation:
a) there are booming enclaves, based on information, finance, global communications, high technology and service industries; the residents are characterized by high incomes and education and high levels of consumption but with increasing environmental consciousness. For example, it has been estimated that in Asia there are now over 750 million "first-worlders" - not just most Japanese, Australians, and Singaporeans, and perhaps 70% of Malaysia's population but over a million Jakartans, a few million Thais, as well as millions in places like Shanghai, Bombay, Manila, Bangalore etc. It is also reported that this year, there will be more new cars sold in Asia than in all of Europe and North America combined.5 Abolfathi (1997) observes that "middle-upper classes in the developing world are growing more than 5% per year".b) there are production areas - the farms, forests, factories, mines and fisheries which supply the booming urban areas; where technology is in most instances leading to intensification (more output per unit input or per unit area) although in some countries, the production zone is still expanding into previously marginal areas which were forested. The people of these areas live well, generally, but much less so than in the booming enclaves. Thus many people from these areas aspire to migrate to the boom areas, with their better schools, shops and healthcare. The technological intensification also reduces the labour demand in these areas, adding a push-factor to the pull-factor in migration.
c) finally however, there is evidence that remote, poor rural forest villages are being left behind: most have experienced very low income growth, if any. In each country these "left-behind" enclaves usually have people with little formal education, limited access to or control over valuable resources and poor transport and communications infrastructure, who struggle to maintain traditional living standards. Generally, they have little that is desired for consumption by the more affluent strata.
5 The International Telecommunications Union reports that Asia Pacific posted 84% growth in cellular phone subscribers in 1996, rising from 40 million in 1990. Erikson Telecommunications estimates there are now more mobile phones in Asia than in North America (AFP, "Asians use mobile phones more than Americans" Jakarta Post, 8 June 1997 p.8)
This differentiation has many consequences, including:
· In cities and towns, industries and the service sector are booming as prosperous enclaves like Singapore and Sydney, Shanghai and Bangalore, in parts of Vietnam, China, Indonesia, India and Thailand, even Fiji and PNG, but NOT for forest-people. Poor rural people have been able to participate in booming economies mainly by migrating (at least temporarily) to the cities and ports - contributing to rapid urbanization. Successful producers who move to the cities can join the elite, but people from the backwaters frequently remain part of an urban underclass doing the least attractive jobs (but at least they have employment).· new road construction and the expansion of logging activity open up previously remote areas (whether for export of for domestic industries and markets).
· those remaining in the villages and forests often feel deprived economically and socially. One of the few assets that they can draw upon, to try to gain some incomes and "consumer goods" or even to pay for their children's health care and education, is Non-Timber Forest Products. (Another is illegal logging on government forests.) A result of this trend may be greater harvesting pressures. Urban populations, with their expanding size, wealth and purchasing power, can increasingly afford to pay much more for the NTFP they desire, which is often the already rare and endangered! Increasing commercialization of NTFPs leads to increasing harvesting pressures, in many places throughout the region and for many specific products; The forest population are more willing to sell, to hunt/collect; they feel a need to earn more cash incomes. If the prices they receive are low, they may well increase the volumes harvested, to earn the desired or required incomes!
· accompanying this we often observe the collapse or, at best, weakening of traditional management and regulatory systems, customary laws, taboos, social controls. This can lead to the erosion of traditional social structures which often had a (successful) forest management component. Numerous examples could be cited from most countries, but especially India, Laos, Northern Thailand, Nepal, Indonesia and the Philippines.
De-regulation and "re-inventing" smaller more efficient, more competitive governments has been accompanied by expanding the role of the private sector - privatization of government-owned assets and trading enterprises - and shedding community welfare functions to "civil society", especially the non-governmental (or voluntary) sector. This has been reflected in the devolution of forest management. Moves towards local community based management are based on recognition of traditional management systems, which centred on NTFP, mainly for subsistence or local village markets. There have been popular assertions that such devolution will necessarily lead to sustainable and equitable forest management by traditional groups. But is this really the way of the future? Is this compatible with the other trends outlined above?
The past two decades have also seen very rapid expansion of communications (TV parabolas in the forests!). Forest people are becoming increasingly aware of the affluence of others; their aspirations for much greater material wealth, from dayaks in Sarawak (for example Lian, 1993) to hill tribes in Thailand or cultural minorities in Yunnan.
Per Capita Energy Consumption in Selected Asian Countries 1975-95 (logarithmic scale)
Agriculture's % Share of GDP in Selected Asian Countries 1975-95
Technological change and adoption/adaptation to new technologies has been extremely rapid (as with cellular phones, satellite TV, new agricultural crops and technologies, including new technologies for the forestry sector). New production technologies outside the forest sector may contribute to sustainable forest management by reducing pressure for conversion of forest lands to other uses, by modifying demand for forest products and by increasing options available to forest managers. Developments applied to the wood-processing industries may contribute to greater efficiency and less waste in both the factory and the forest. Technology may enable the utilization of a greater range of tree sizes and species, in turn creating new silvicultural opportunities for forest management. These may allow both commercial and environmental objectives to be realized with fewer compromises.
There has been much debate about whether aggregate demand for wood products in or from the region will rise, and if so, by how much. But even reductions in per capita wood consumption need not imply a reduction in consumer satisfaction. Technology may reduce demand for wood without inconveniencing consumers by, for example,
· supplementing or replacing wood fibres (e.g., packaging) with agricultural by-products (e.g., straw);· providing alternative energy sources (e.g., solar hot water, more efficient stoves); or
· increasing re-use and recycling (more material, more cycles, greater recovery).
A focus on technologies within the forestry sector could contribute to more sustainable forest management, by satisfying the increasing consumer demands from smaller forest areas, with less disturbance. But the pace of other technological changes, and social, demographic, political and economic changes are likely to dwarf initiatives from within the forestry sector.
Service's % Share of GNP in Selected Asian Countries 1975-95
