5.1. Macro Analysis of Wood Energy Consumption
5.2. Sectoral Analysis of Wood Energy Consumption
5.3. Wood Energy Consumption in the Household Sector
5.4. Consumption in Fuelwood-gathering Households
5.5. Consumption of Traded Woodfuels
Some of the fastest growing economies in the world, with some of the greatest increases in commercial energy consumption over the last decade, are found in RWEDP member-countries. These economies are also seeing their consumption of traditional energy, mainly woodfuels, increasing. The rise in woodfuel consumption is projected to continue for some years to come. Hence woodfuels continue to be a significant energy source in these countries and are expected to remain so in the foreseeable future.
5.1.1. Population Trends
5.1.2. Economic Growth and Income Patterns
5.1.3. Total Energy Consumption Trends
5.1.4. Wood Energy Consumption Trends
5.1.5. Constraints on Macro Analysis
In a macro or aggregate analysis, the factors considered to be affecting total energy consumption are population, level of economic activity in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and level of national income in terms of Gross National Product (GNP). Increasing population generally leads to increasing economic activity (thus of GDP). Increases in population and economic activities in a country often lead to increases in consumption of energy. Increasing economic activities lead to increasing incomes and a better quality of life for more people. This generally results in more diverse energy applications and additional energy uses.
Macro analysis of energy consumption of specific energy sources such as wood, oil and electricity considers the same set of factors mentioned above. These factors can have quite different effects on the consumption of each type of fuel. The effects can also be different when compared to the total energy consumption.
An aggregate analysis of wood energy consumption of the region covers the differences that exist among the various countries. Differences in the patterns of current and future consumption of wood energy among countries can be substantial. However there are general trends that can define broad features of the future scenario of wood energy consumption in the region.
RWEDP includes the three most populous countries in the world: China, India and Indonesia. In 1995, these three countries already made up almost 41% of the world's population. If the populations of the other 13 RWEDP member-countries are included, the region's share of the world's total population is 51%. In the last decade, the population growth rate in the region ranged from 1.3 to 3.2, compared to a world average of 1.7. Population growth might have slowed in some member-countries, but this region is forecast to have one of the fastest population growth rates in the world in the coming years.
During the last decade, the average economic growth rate in the region, measured in terms of GDP growth rates, ranged from 2.2 to 9.7, as compared with a world average of 2.9. The region, particularly the Southeast Asian countries, has the highest economic growth rates in the world, which has transformed its economies. Industries and services have increased their share in the economy, while agriculture has intensified production. Economic liberalization and international trade links have tremendously increased, providing further impetus towards achieving greater economic outputs. All these factors point to higher energy consumption by the economies in the region.
Income in the region, measured in terms of GNP growth rates, has risen. GNP growth rates in the last ten years ranged from 3 to 12, higher than the world average of 8.3. However, the average income per capita of US$ 470 is still much lower than the global per capita average of US$ 4260. Nevertheless, the rise in incomes has been dramatic and changes in the quality of life of many people in the region have been significant. Many have moved up the income ladder and with it have adopted lifestyles that require more diverse uses of energy. They have adopted many of the conveniences of modern living, most of which require more energy consumption (such as increased use of motor vehicles and modern electrical appliances). As more people move up the income ladder, more will be adopting energy-intensive lifestyles. This is another reason why energy consumption is set to increase rapidly in the region in the future.
However, the region is also marked by a very skewed pattern of income distribution. A large segment of the population in most countries has yet to benefit from the economic growth and increases in national income. The region is still host to the largest number of people living below the poverty line. UNDP, in its 1997 Human Development Report (UNDP, 1997), reported that South Asia has a higher number of poor people than any other region in the world. This situation seems certain to continue for some time to come, despite current efforts towards poverty alleviation. The incidence of poverty is the most significant parameter that drives significant traditional use of woodfuels and residues. Nevertheless, the impact of poverty is often overlooked in macro analyses of energy consumption.
In 1994, the total energy consumption of the region was about 50,000 petajoules, equivalent to 21% of the total world energy consumption. Total energy consumption includes both conventional and traditional energy consumption. During the last decade, the total energy consumption growth rates of countries in the region grew higher than the world average. The range of average annual growth rate values were from 1.5 to 8.0 compared to the world average of 1.9. However, energy consumption per person in the region is lower than the world average and still much lower than that of the developed countries. Per capita energy consumption in the region ranges from 1 to 50 gigajoule compared to the world average of 42 gigajoule and to the OECD average of 133 gigajoule. The energy intensity of economies in the region (measured in terms of the ratio of total energy consumed and GDP) ranges from 6 to 70 megajoule per US$.
With the population and economy of the region growing and stimulating the socio-economic transformation that moves societies to more diverse and intensive uses of energy, we can expect the demand for and the consumption of energy to accelerate. As mentioned earlier, more people will move up the income ladder and adopt energy-intensive lifestyles. Given that economic growth rates in the region are higher than the global average, and with a population accounting for more than half of the world's population, the region's energy consumption growth rate is expected to be higher than the world average and the energy use in the region will grow far beyond what it is today.
Several methods are used to project future energy consumption. The simplest approach is to extrapolate energy consumption trends over time, or on the basis of either population or economic growth rates. The results arrived at are usually different. Other methods are available which combine the effects of population and economic growth on energy consumption. However, whichever method is used, all results point to continued significant increases in energy consumption in the countries discussed above.
Traditional energy sources include wood and other biomass energy, such as agri-residues and animal dung. In most countries, wood makes up the majority of traditional energy sources. Unfortunately, there is little information specifying the composition of the traditional fuels.
FAO estimates that annual per capita wood energy consumption among RWEDP countries ranges from 150 to 680 kg per person or 2.2 to 10.2 gigajoule per person. Although the values that FAO uses vary from country to country, FAO assumes those country-specific values remain constant over the years. FAO data include both fuelwood and charcoal. It estimates wood energy consumption based on the population (see Annex 2). Using the FAO approach, the total wood energy consumption in the region in 1995 was estimated to be 860 million cubic metres or 8,430 petajoules. This is 45% of the estimated world consumption of wood energy for that year.
What is interesting to see is the share of wood and other traditional energy in total energy consumption. Data shows that consumption of woodfuels is significant but the share has been declining. The share of wood and other traditional fuels ranges from 18 to 91% of total national energy consumption. However, a closer look shows that through the years, the absolute values of traditional energy consumption in most member-countries are increasing. Based on the FAO approach, the projected wood energy consumption in the region by the year 2010 is expected to be 10,200 petajoules or 1,050 million cubic metres.
A recent study commissioned by FAO Forestry Department (FAO, 1997b) provides future amounts of wood energy consumption using a mathematical model that accounts for population growth, level of economic activity and changes in the prices of wood products. On the basis of this study, wood energy consumption in the region is projected to be 1,000 million cubic metres in the year 2010.
Macro analysis techniques provide a simple approach to studying energy consumption and projecting future energy consumption. However, such techniques do not account for the many factors that drive energy consumption and the types of fuel used. Thus, macro analysis techniques may not be an accurate tool in terms of projecting trends in consumption of specific fuels such as wood, petroleum or electricity.
Applying only macro-factors such as population or economic growth rate overlooks the other determinants of wood energy consumption. Among the more important determinants are pattern of income distribution, location of users, fuel prices and fuel accessibility. The pattern of income distribution is an important parameter determining consumption of woodfuels. Its effect is completely hidden if extrapolation of total energy consumption based on population, GDP and GNP are the only techniques used to analyse consumption. In the past, macro analysis usually led to energy programs that neglected wood and other traditional energy, specially those for low-income users.
The results of macro analyses however are useful for defining broad policy measures for wood energy development and also for defining further specific data collection activities. However, for formulating specific strategies which entail detailed programming, designing projects, and making decisions for investments, more detailed analyses are needed.
Sectoral analysis or the analysis of the energy consumption of each economic sector provides a more grounded approach in understanding energy-economy interactions. It thus provides a better basis for projecting future energy consumption. It can be the basis for fine tuning policies that include well-focused intervention programs and appropriately designed investment projects.
A sectoral energy analysis usually divides the economy into five major categories or sectors: household, industry, agriculture, service and transport. Wood energy is relevant in all sectors except transport. Each sector is treated as having some unique characteristics and patterns of energy consumption, including unique patterns of wood energy consumption.
Sectoral energy analysis accounts for changes in the economic structure of a country due to changes in the share of the contribution of each sector. It can also account for changes in specific energy consumption in each sector, and thus, recognizes that the specific energy consumption of the total economy is not constant but changes over time. Finally, it can also account for changes in the specific energy consumption for each type of fuel such as wood, kerosene, gas, and electricity over time. These changes are very pronounced particularly during periods of rapid economic growth and transformation, which is what most of the RWEDP member-countries have been experiencing in the last ten years.
Most RWEDP countries have conducted sectoral energy consumption analyses but most are focused on projecting future consumption for commercial energy sources and electricity. There are few countries which have studied the future consumption of wood and other traditional fuels using the sectoral analysis approach and these have been mostly household sectoral studies.
Generally, the household sector is the greatest consumer of wood energy. Households use it mostly for cooking, which in many countries is a major energy application. Significant use of wood energy also occurs in industries, particularly in traditional, mainly rural, small-scale industries. Also, the amount of wood energy used to generate process heat and electricity for modern industries is increasing. The service sector is another important user of wood energy, as it is used in large and small-scale cooking, e.g. by ambulant food vendors, cafes, restaurants and hotels, and also by public and private institutions such as schools and hospitals. A sectoral analysis of wood energy consumption involves closer investigation of each of these sectors to identify and annualize the factors that influence their present and future consumption of wood energy.
The primary factors driving total energy consumption in the household sector are population size and levels of household income. The agro-ecological situation also influences the total energy consumption of the sector, as do socio-cultural factors, but these determine why energy consumption differs from place to place. For example, households in temperate regions use more wood for cooking and space heating.
The patterns of household energy consumption or the differences in levels of household energy consumption are determined by patterns of household size and income, types of energy application, efficiencies of wood energy devices and households' accessibility to fuels. To provide indicators of fuel accessibility, the following parameters are usually used: location of households - whether urban or rural; prices of fuels and, particularly for woodfuels and agricultural residues, the time taken to collect these fuels. It is the combination of all these factors that determines the amount of wood energy consumed in the household sector.
At present, the majority of households in most of the RWEDP countries gather their fuelwood "for free". These are mostly the low-income households located in rural areas involved in agricultural production activities. In analysing wood energy consumption, there is a need to differentiate between use of fuelwood by rural people who gather mostly twigs and branches for their daily fuel needs and those users who purchase their woodfuels, for example, in urban areas. However, "free" fuelwood gathering also occurs in urban areas, among poor families who gather their wood from dumpsites, construction sites and even from trees planted along roadsides and rivers.
5.4.1. Effects of Population Size
5.4.2. Effects of Income Levels
5.4.3. Access Constraints
5.4.4. Prospects for Fuelwood-gathering Households
Though consumption by fuelwood-gathering households (or households using "non-traded fuelwood") is significant in member-countries, exact figures are not known for many countries. Data from Pakistan (World Bank/ESMAP and UNDP, 1993) showed that around 60 % of woodfuels used in the country are gathered while data from the Philippines (World Bank/ESMAP, 1991) gave an estimate of about 78% for that country. It must be noted that in both countries, there are households which both gather and buy the wood they use.
What, however, is indisputable is that in most countries "non-traded woodfuels" is the main source of fuel for cooking in low- income rural households. It is also used for water heating and, in temperate regions, for space heating. These are the main types of applications for non-traded fuelwood.
Rural people, who mostly use non-traded woodfuel, generally use more woodfuels for cooking than their urban counterparts, because end-uses are generally less efficient. Stoves used in rural areas, mostly self-made by women, require no financial expenditure, and are generally inefficient. Since, woodfuels are generally gathered "for free", this further discourages efforts towards more efficient use.
Besides the level of efficiency of wood energy devices, other specific factors that influence consumption of non-traded fuelwood in the household sector are population size, income levels, and fuel accessibility. Increasing population generally means increasing wood energy consumption by low-income households. Increasing income and fuel accessibility encourages a shift away from woodfuel use. However, these factors can produce very different sets of impacts in different situations.
An increase in population without attendant changes in the patterns of household income or, more specifically, without significant increase in the number of households moving up to higher income levels leads to increasing use of non-traded fuelwood. How much woodfuel is consumed depends upon the number of households that falls below a threshold income level below which, households cannot afford to buy traded fuels, including traded fuelwood and charcoal. Thus, these households gather their own fuel. The larger the number of households falling under this threshold income level, the larger will be the total consumption of non-traded fuelwood in the household sector.
The threshold income level varies from country to country and even within regions there is a range of values. This range is determined not by cash income earnings but by real income earnings, which include income in kind earned by the family. Income in kind is common in rural households, examples of which are consumption of their own agricultural produce and available free time to gather fuelwood. Use of fuelwood in the household sector may decline even if population increases if there is a significant number of households moving up beyond the threshold income level.
In many places, the threshold income level may be way above the official poverty line. Thus, many households classified as living above the poverty line still cannot afford to buy fuel, even woodfuel, and instead have to gather it.
Low household incomes can affect fuelwood consumption in other ways too. Many poor rural households find lower grade fuels such as agriwastes and dung important alternatives to fuelwood. Even if they have access to fuelwood, rural users may use the lower grade fuels instead of fuelwood and then sell the fuelwood for additional income. The impact will be very difficult to predict. Woodfuel consumption could either increase or decrease, depending on how many poor households shift to agriwastes and how many more households use the fuelwood sold by the former. It is also very possible that buyers of the woodfuels are non-household users such as food vendors, eateries and even industries. The only thing that seems to be definite here is that there will be more users of traditional energy such as woodfuels and residues. This is an example of the intricate link between traded and non-traded woodfuel which complicates any attempts to analyse the future demand for fuelwood.
Access to fuelwood resources is another factor determining the amount of non-traded fuelwood consumed by households. Access to woodfuels means having physical access to the source, the right to gather woodfuels from that source and having the necessary field labour available to collect and transport it. Such field labour is usually supplied by women and children.
Access to fuelwood affects level of consumption as it can restrict supply and force fuelwood users to shift to alternatives - usually lower grade fuels. Access to fuelwood can be restricted because of limitations imposed by the location of the resources in relation to consumption, by land tenure and ownership of biomass resources and, finally, by the way in which biomass resources are managed. Whether people are willing to make the extra efforts needed to overcome these constraints depends on the available alternatives to wood, their income level and the income opportunities for wood collectors
Significant use of non-traded woodfuels appears certain to continue for the foreseeable future, because of two factors. Firstly, most countries will continue to have large percentages of their population remaining poor. In spite of projections for these countries of higher economic growth rates and even a current decline in the number of people living below the poverty line, the absolute number of poor households will still remain significant. Thus, many households will continue to live below the threshold income level and will not be able to afford to buy traded fuels, including fuelwood. These households will gather fuelwood for their own use or they may use residues and sell the fuelwood for income.
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Box 2 - Fuelwood in Agroforestry In Asia, agroforestry systems are distinguished as either (a) farm-based or (b) forest-based systems. The former covers trees in home gardens, trees in agricultural fields, agricultural crops planted under commercial trees, commercial crops under tree shade, trees around agricultural fields, woodlots, and other farm-based silvicultural practices, as well as integrated fish ponds. The latter systems include the taungya system of forest plantation, shifting cultivation, silvopastoral practices in forests, and silvofishery. In Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Vietnam and particularly West Java, Indonesia, agroforestry represents a substantial part (12-45%) of total land use. In these as well as other countries, agroforestry is a very important source of woodfuels. The supply of woodfuel per annum varies widely depending on, for example, climate, soil, species and tree density, but can be as high as 42 t/ha (Calliandra calothyrsus in agrisilviculture systems in humid climates) or even 58 t/ha (mangrove in silvopastoral systems). RWEDP has evaluated the average woodfuel productivities of agroforestry systems in different zones. The results are presented below: |
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Climate
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System components |
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Agrisilviculture |
Silvopastoral |
Agrisilvopastoral |
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Humid |
14.1 t/ha |
19.5 t/ha |
12.9 t/ha |
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Subhumid |
7.8 t/ha |
7.0 t/ha |
2.9 t/ha |
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The data are derived from existing systems and it should be emphasized that most of these systems are not cultivated with the sole purpose of providing wood, but are supplying fodder, grains, tubers, vegetables, various animal products, etc., under various farmland resources management systems. The minimum land area under agroforestry required to meet the woodfuel needs of one household has also been calculated. The results are presented as follows. |
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Climate
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System components |
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Agrisilviculture |
Silvopastoral |
Agrisilvopastoral |
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Humid |
0.21 ha |
0.20 ha |
0.20 ha |
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Subhumid |
0.60 ha |
0.59 ha |
0.95 ha |
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It is concluded that agroforestry systems are already very important woodfuel suppliers and have the potential to meet woodfuel demand in most Asian countries. The data suggest that this would be possible if farmers adopted appropriate agroforestry practices on 20-30% of their agricultural land holdings in humid zones and on 25-50% in drier areas. In most RWEDP member-countries, there is no shortage of land available for agroforestry extension. Source: "Woodfuel Productivity of Agroforestry Systems in Asia", Michael Jensen, RWEDP Field Document No. 45 (1995). |
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The second factor that will keep on encouraging fuel gathering activities by households is the continuing availability of "free" labour, mainly provided by women and children, to collect the fuelwood needed by these households. Even if woodfuel-collecting trips were long or becoming longer, it would probably not be a matter of concern, particularly to men. Only if labour becomes scarce will the collection of even abundant woodfuel supplies be perceived as a serious problem, and the users may move to lower grade fuels. A more desirable development is to provide opportunities to both men and women to raise their incomes. This would allow them to send their children to school and to buy the fuel they need. But apparently this scenario is not considered realistic in many countries.
On the other hand, the factors that could restrain used of non-traded fuelwood are non-physical access factors, such as tenural and legal rights. However, it is very possible that collection and use of fuelwood will continue even if such access restrictions are present. Poaching will always be resorted to, especially if lower quality fuels such as shrubs, dung cake and crop residues are not accessible to poor households.
In the absence of more detailed data, values for the key factors that determine continued fuelwood gathering activities in households are difficult to obtain. These key factors, as mentioned above, include "real" family income; available free time of collectors -particularly of women and children; access constraints to wood resources and accessibility to alternative fuels. These are site-specific parameters that need site-specific wood energy surveys. The lack of detailed data makes it difficult to do accurate projections of wood energy consumption which take account of the previously mentioned factors.
Generalizing values for these parameters in order to do national-level studies may be lead to erroneous results because first, there are difficulties in defining general quantitative indicators for these parameters, and second, there are large variations in the factors from place to place, particularly in large non-homogenous countries. This is one of the reasons why wood energy analysis and planning needs to be conducted using a decentralized area-based approach. This would enable the specific characteristics of the present situation and future trends to be analysed, but more importantly, it would allow the design of site-specific strategies and programs to address wood energy development issues. On the basis of these various decentralized area-based analyses and plans aggregate values of present and future consumption trends can then be extrapolated and used for the validation of overall broad national policy measures 1.
1 As mentioned earlier, tentative or initial overall broad wood energy policies and strategies may be defined using macro analysis techniques.
5.5.1. Household Consumption Patterns
5.5.2. Impacts of Urbanization
5.5.3. Urban Poverty and Woodfuel Consumption
5.5.4. Impacts of Changing Social Norms
5.5.5. Household-based Livelihood Activities
5.5.6. Use in Industries and Enterprises
5.5.7. Modern Applications of Wood Energy
5.5.8. Prospects for Traded Woodfuels
Trading of fuelwood and charcoal is mostly found in urban areas. In these places, the majority of the users are poor households. Fuelwood and charcoal are mainly used for cooking. They are also use for space heating and, particularly in the case of charcoal, for ironing clothes. However, in both urban and rural areas, there are also higher income households which buy and use fuelwood and charcoal. Some may have the money to buy conventional fuels such as kerosene and LPG but have difficulty obtaining them. Others may want to use fuelwood and charcoal as secondary fuels or as fuels to cook special dishes. Many types of establishments also buy woodfuels for commercial and industrial applications, mainly to generate process heat or steam.
While it is mainly income levels and the price of fuels that determines the pattern of consumption of traded fuels in urban households, for rural households, security of supply of modern fuels is another additional factor that has to be considered, though this may also be true in many smaller urban areas.
Among households purchasing woodfuels, increasing household incomes generally lead to a decrease in the number of woodfuels purchased and in total woodfuel consumption. Households purchasing woodfuels are more sensitive to relative prices and inter-fuel substitution when their income changes. There are opportunities for woodfuel savings by introducing improved stoves which could be commercialized through wood traders. There are also opportunities for fuel switching.
Large cities generally have higher household incomes and a better supply of modem fuels such as kerosene, LPG or even piped gas. As urbanization increases, firewood consumption in urban households appears to decrease. Comparative studies of urban areas show that the population size of a city is strongly correlated with the proportion of households using fuelwood and their level of consumption. The number of households which use fuelwood in large cities is much lower than in smaller cities. Urbanization is an indicator both of greater accessibility to modern fuels and of higher household income levels.
As countries in the region develop, more areas are becoming urbanized and more people are living in cities. More families have higher incomes now than previously and this change is expected to continue in the future. Better infrastructure is being developed to supply modern fuels. It is thus expected that these factors will contribute to the decline in the consumption of "traded" woodfuels in the future. Many households purchasing woodfuels in both urban and rural areas will shift away from woodfuels when they can afford conventional fuels and when the supply of conventional fuels is secured.
However, urbanization has also brought with it changes that could also mean increased use of woodfuels, or at least continued use at present levels. The following observations seem to indicate this. However, these observations need further investigation to validate them and the conclusions that are tentatively drawn from them.
Though average urban income levels in most countries have been steadily rising for some years, like any macro-indicators, they do not show how unevenly income is distributed or that a large number of people live in poverty. Most of these low-income people use woodfuels. They cannot shift to modern fuels because they cannot afford to buy a modern cook stove. It is quite likely that although some of these people could afford to buy modern fuels and a modern cook stove they find fuelwood and charcoal cheaper than kerosene or LPG, so they continue to use their wood stove to save on the cost of cooking their meals. Most of these households are found in slum colonies and marginalized areas in many large cities of the region.
Evidence indicates that the population in these slum and marginalized communities is growing due to the influx of poor families from rural areas attracted by the opportunities that the cities offer them. As mentioned before, some of them are so poor that they resort to fuelwood gathering even in the cities. With these people continuing to live in marginalized conditions the use of "traded woodfuels" will continue. If the urban poor population continues to grow an increase in the consumption of traded woodfuels is likely to be a consequence.
Urbanization has also affected social structures in a way that has altered how families prepare and eat their meals. Both the husband and wife now work in an increasing number of urban families and many of these families live in a nuclear family arrangement rather than in the traditional extended family which could have provided support for household and family maintenance. With many of these nuclear families finding hired household help, e.g. a cook, to be too much of a financial burden eating outside and buying cooked food from the ubiquitous food vendors and eateries found in many Asian cities is an increasingly popular alternative to them. Interestingly, it seems that many of these food vendors and eateries use fuelwood and charcoal to cook the food they serve.
No systematic studies have been carried out yet to estimate the amount of woodfuels used by commercial food establishments and correlate it with the amount of energy used for cooking by urban households. However, some household energy surveys have shown that urban households which mostly eat outside or buy their food already cooked have significantly lower energy consumption. While household energy consumption for cooking is decreasing energy consumption of the service sector, particularly that of food establishments, is increasing. It would be interesting to see how much of the increase is due to the use of woodfuels. Apparently, food vendors and eateries, particularly those in the informal sector which form the bulk of food establishments that the majority of the city dwellers patronize, will use woodfuels as long as they are cheaper than conventional fuels.
Many households in both urban and rural areas are involved in livelihood activities that consume fuelwood and charcoal. Food preparation and the operation of small food establishments are the best examples. Usually, it is difficult to separate the amount of energy used for the livelihood activity from that used just by the household. In many cases, energy is consumed mainly for cooking and both the food to be sold and to be eaten are cooked at the same time. Thus, in surveying such households for their energy consumption, the amount consumed is usually labelled only for household energy consumption. In order to lower their operating costs and increase their profit these households (which probably can afford to purchase all types of fuel) generally prefer to use woodfuels as long as they are cheaper. If many such households exist in a locality being surveyed, the total household energy consumption will likely be overestimated.
Fuelwood, charcoal and other biomass fuels are used in enterprises such as brick-making, lime production, textile processing, and food industries. When compared with the domestic sector the amount of woodfuel used by woodfuel using industries and enterprises appears small but nonetheless it is significant. Many of these industries and enterprises use outdated and inefficient wood energy devices.
Given the impacts of increasing population, economic growth and urbanization, there are at least two sub-sectors which need closer study: the brick making industry and food establishments. Bricks are one of the major materials needed for the increasing construction activities in both urban and rural areas in the region. The brick industries in most RWEDP countries still significantly rely on woodfuels for their kilns. The significant role of woodfuels in the operation of food establishments has already been pointed out.
The use of woodfuels and other biomass fuels in industries and enterprises will depend on the price and supply security of these fuels relative to commercial fuels. These industries and enterprises will continue to use wood and biomass fuels as long as these fuels are competitive and supply is secure.
In the past few years, several countries in the region have become involved in modern applications of wood energy. These are not research or pilot projects - these are actual investment projects that exploit wood and other biomass fuels to generate heat, steam or even electricity for use by industries through more efficient, convenient and modern technologies. These projects are proving to be technically successful and economically profitable. They are showing what the role of wood energy could be in the future. They are also proving that wood energy can be a technically efficient, economically viable and environmentally sustainable fuel option.
The factors that will drive continued or increased use of traded woodfuels are relatively lower woodfuel prices, a growing population with a larger segment still falling below incomes at which conventional fuels are unaffordable, constraints in the supply of conventional fuels, and increased acceptance of modern wood energy technologies. Consumption in households and traditional industries and enterprises is affected by the first three factors. Consumption for modern applications is affected by the first and the last factors. In the near future, the bulk of the consumption of traded woodfuels will still be in households and traditional industries and enterprises.
An analysis of consumption trends should be relatively easier for traded woodfuels than for non-traded woodfuels. The key parameters that determine traded woodfuel consumption such as household income levels and fuel prices can be quantified with a greater degree of agreement. However, most countries do not have data that relates income levels with fuel prices and energy consumption, particularly data that deals with woodfuels. And almost no country has historical data which can serve as a basis for consumption projections.
The situation is still more complicated for non-traded fuels, where very few data exist. Even if woodfuel trading is occurring, it is very much part of the informal sector (and sometimes and in some places, even illegal). There are no records of transactions available, unlike those for commercial fuels, electricity or commercial wood products. Furthermore, as with non-traded fuels, consumption patterns for traded woodfuels are very site-specific and any studies of such patterns require a decentralized approach.
Nevertheless, trends in changes in the patterns of households income levels point to at least continued significant use of woodfuels. As already mentioned, a large segment of the population in most countries will continue to be living at low income levels which will not allow them to shift to conventional fuels. The issue is how many households will be forced to gather woodfuels compared to households which will still be able to afford to buy woodfuels.
The effect of fuel prices does not appear to be straightforward. Nominal woodfuel prices are increasing over time in many places. In some places, its real price is even higher than that of kerosene. However, in spite of this, it appears that low income families still prefer woodfuels since they can purchase them in small amounts and, more importantly, many families are still too poor to buy kerosene stoves.
Increasing woodfuel prices will affect most industries and enterprises. They are more sensitive to fuel prices and have an appreciation of the trade-off between investing in a conventional energy device and paying a higher operating cost due to higher woodfuel prices. However, because of problems in supply security for conventional fuels they may opt to continue to use woodfuels.
This attempt to analyse the future of woodfuel has proved extremely difficult due to a lack of relevant data. As previously mentioned, such an analysis ultimately needs to be site-specific. This implies the need to develop the required technical skills among the wood energy-related institutions in RWEDP member-countries.
