11.1 The Demand and Supply Projection for Important Forest Products
11.2 Issues Concerning Demand and Supply of Forest Products in the Future
11.1.1 Projection Methods
11.1.2 Basic Direction of Demand and Supply of Forest Products
Estimates for the year 2005 and year 2015 were established. For projection, products were classified from the demand perspective into sawn timber, timber for wood panels, timber for pulp and timber for other purposes. The supply was divided into domestic and imported volume.
For this projection, the demand volume and supply for sawn timber and timber for wood panels was estimated by utilizing a demand and supply balancing model based on the schematized and simplified market mechanisms. The model treats demand as a function of floor area of new housing and wages in actual manufacturing industries; for supply the model used treated it as a function of forest resource structure and expansion of forest road network.
For pulpwood and "timber for other purposes", the demand volume was estimated by utilizing a demand structure formula obtained from indicators of real economic growth ratios and used paper utilization ratios. At the same time, the supply volume was estimated by taking into consideration domestic supply obtained from a demand and supply balancing model, etc.
Various effects such as reduction of round wood material production costs due to improvement of forest roads and mechanization, reduction of timber processing costs due to development of large-scale sawmills, promotion of timber utilization in the housing field, and effective utilization of thinned wood were incorporated into projection as numerical values wherever possible. Consequently, by taking into consideration the situation surrounding future timber demand and supply in a comprehensive manner, a basis was established for the projection of numerical values.
The projections are given in Table 8 and Table 9, the latter being based on assumed continuation of current trends while the former takes into full account the significant potential developments explained in the "Basic Plan" and summarised briefly here.
11.1.2.1 Sawn Timber
Demand volume has been generally decreasing since 1973, and there is a possibility that a similar trend will continue in the future. However, by promoting timber utilization in a positive manner, by providing lumber and laminated lumber suited to consumer needs, it is anticipated that this trend will continue at the same rate or slow down steadily.
Concerning supply volume, domestic timber has been in a downward trend, whereas exporting intentions in producer countries of foreign timber still remain high. Imported sawn timber has been in an upward trend and imported logs have been in a downward trend. Japan's forest resources have been maturing, accordingly, domestic supply timber is expected to increase gradually whereas foreign timber supply will decrease due to the improvement of competitive conditions of domestic timber against substitutes and foreign timber as, for example, a stable timber supplying system is established.
Under such circumstances, the self-sufficiency ratio of sawn timber, which already holds the top position in supply volume of domestic timber, is expected to rise to nearly 50% in about 20 years.
11.1.2.2 Timber for wood panels
Demand volume has been increasing steadily since 1975, and it is anticipated that this will increase steadily due to the increase in the consumption of coniferous plywood, medium-density fibre board and particle board in the future.
Concerning supply volume, it is anticipated that tropical hardwood timber, which holds the top position in timber for plywood, will decrease due to state of forest resources. Although the quantities of domestic timber are small, supply volume is expected to increase gradually due to the increase in utilization of coniferous plywood.
11.1.2.3 Pulpwood
In keeping with the increase in demand for paper and paperboard, demand volume has continued in an upward trend, and it is anticipated to increase in line with future economic growth.
The supply volume of domestic timber (primarily broad-leaved trees) has been decreasing rapidly since 1985 due to the effects of the appreciation of the yen which has made imports so much cheaper. However, this is expected to revert to the same level in the future through the utilization of thinned timbers, etc.
Foreign timber will continue in an upward trend from now on, and it is anticipated that the significance of timber from plantations will increase due to environmental issues in the producing countries, etc.
Furthermore, while promoting effective utilization of timber resources, it is anticipated that the demand volume of timber residue from manufacturing plants, etc. will increase.
11.1.2.4 Timber for other purposes
The demand volume of bed-logs for shiitake mushroom culture is anticipated to increase in line with people's tendency towards more nature-oriented and genuine awareness, etc. in the future. It is also anticipated that the demand volume for charcoal will increase mainly for business use, outdoor recreation and soil improvement.
As mentioned above, in the future, the total demand volume for timber is expected to increase steadily in Japan.
Regarding supply volume of domestic timber used mainly for sawn timber will increase, while foreign timber will remain at the same level or move in an upward trend. In the meantime, exporting countries are expected to become more diversified and there will be an increase in the finished and semi-finished product importation ratio.
Table 8: Demand and Supply Projection for Forest Products - calculated on basis of potential evolution away from current tendencies (Unit: 1 million m3)
|
|
Classification |
Average Actual results for 1992-1994 |
2005 |
2015 |
|
|
Timber for sawn timber |
Demand volume |
51 |
50~52 |
50~54 |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
17 |
20~21 |
23~26 |
|
|
Imported volume |
34 |
30~31 |
27~28 |
||
|
Timber for wood panels |
Demand volume |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
1 |
2~3 |
3~4 |
|
|
Imported volume |
17 |
16~17 |
15~17 |
||
|
Timber for pulp |
Demand volume |
(6) |
(7) |
(8) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
Imported volume |
33 |
36 |
40 |
||
|
Timber for other purposes |
Demand volume |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Imported volume |
1 |
1 |
1 |
||
|
Total |
Demand volume |
(7) |
(8) |
(8) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
27 |
32~34 |
36~40 |
|
|
Imported volume |
83 |
83~85 |
83~86 |
||
Notes:
1. Figures in parentheses are approximately demand volume for plant residue, etc. and exclusive.2. Timber for other purposes means firewood, bed-log for shiitake mushroom culture, etc.
3. Since the figures are rounded off, the total average of actual results between 1992 and 1994 do not coincide.
Table 9: Projections of demand and supply - case of calculating on a basis of continued current tendencies (Unit: 1 million m³)
|
|
Classification |
Average Actual results for 1992-1994 |
2005 |
2015 |
|
|
Timber for sawn timber |
Demand volume |
51 |
48 |
45 |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
|
Imported volume |
34 |
33 |
32 |
||
|
Timber for wood panels |
Demand volume |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Imported volume |
17 |
18 |
18 |
||
|
Timber for pulp |
Demand volume |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
8 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
Imported volume |
33 |
41 |
47 |
||
|
Timber for other purposes |
Demand volume |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Imported volume |
1 |
1 |
1 |
||
|
Total |
Demand volume |
(7) |
(7) |
(7) |
|
|
Supply volume |
Domestic supply volume |
27 |
20 |
17 |
|
|
Imported volume |
83 |
93 |
98 |
||
Notes:
1. Based on recent demand and supply conditions, this estimation is demand and supply for forest products in a case where tendency continues.2. Figures in parentheses are approximately demand volume for plant residue, etc. and exclusive.
3. Timber for other purposes means firewood, bed-log for shiitake mushroom culture, etc.
4. Since the figures are rounded off, the total average of actual results between 1992 and 1994 do not coincide.
11.2.1 Measures for Securing Sustainability
11.2.2 Intensification of Forest Management Foundation and Securing Stable Timber Supply System
11.2.3 Enhancement of Timber Utilization
11.2.4 Promotion of Effective Timber Utilization
11.2.5 Measures for Appropriate Timber Trade
In order to achieve in reality the projections presented above, since "watersheds" are regarded as a basic unit, it is necessary to endeavour to revitalize the forestry and timber industries by incorporating interested parties such as forestry management bodies, forestry enterprises, timber processors, traders and timber distributors. However, the following are some especially important issues.
From the viewpoint of promoting timber supply through sustainable forest management, it is necessary to promote diversification and extension of felling period in order to adjust the age class structure and thinning and to secure sound of forests while taking into consideration the promotion of non-clear cutting method, etc. in order to secure diversity of forest.
In order to lead domestic forest resources anticipated to mature in the future to increase in an actual supply volume, it is necessary to strengthen the foundation for this by diversification of forest operations and management among the forestry management bodies. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the stability of the supply system of timber by encouraging cooperation among the interested parties in production and consumption, from the viewpoint of prices, quality, lots and sales channels, etc.
Furthermore, it is anticipated that international timber demand mainly in developing countries will increase in the future. In order to take advantage of utilizing domestic forest resources for the purpose of securing the sustainability of forests in the world, it is important to have a stable timber supply system.
In order to promote activation of the forestry and timber industry, it is important not only to secure timber demand for housing, etc. but also to create new demand. For achieving this, it is necessary to have conditions in which wood can compete with non-wood-based materials from the viewpoint of quality, price and workability. At the same time, it is necessary to deal with consumer's needs grasping it appropriately, through public awareness of the advantages of timber as a material from the environmental and health aspects.
In order to promote thinning which is important from the viewpoint of soundness of forests, it is necessary to take steps favouring utilization of thinned timber.
From the viewpoint of promoting the fixation of carbon for longer period and reduction of waste, it is also important to take measures to extend utilization period of timber through improving the durability of housing, and effective utilization of plant residue and wood-based waste.
Furthermore, it is possible for timber to become fuel after it is utilized in various forms. Therefore, it is important to ultimately utilize as much as possible used timber as fuel wood.
It seems that Japan cannot help relying on foreign timber as a major portion of timber supply for a while. Consequently, through dialogue with producing countries and exchanging of information, it is necessary to promote appropriate timber importation.
Accordingly, to realize rules rendering the coexistence of free trade and environmental conservation, discussions have been held at the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Trade Organization (WTO), etc. Since there is a possibility that their results will have effects on timber demand and supply in the future, it is necessary for Japan to participate in these discussions in a positive manner.
