2.1. Current Consumption Patterns
2.2. Future Consumption Projections
The economies of the major Asia Pacific countries (with the exception of Japan) have been growing at between 5% and 10% per year for about the past ten years, and this has been clearly reflected in the regional wood based panel consumption which grew at over 10% per year between 1990 and 1995, from 27.3 million m³ to 44.4 million m³ per year.
The pattern of growth by country was not consistent however and included zero consumption growth performances from Singapore, the countries of Indo China, Fiji and Papua New Guinea, and a growth rate of only 2% per year in Japan, the major wood based panel importer in the region. To offset these, the consumption in China grew by about 20% per year throughout the period, and Taiwan Province of China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines all registered consumption growth rates of 10% to over 12% per year.
The pattern of growth between the various panels was also very variable with medium density fibreboard (MDF) being the star performer with an overall growth rate of 30% per year between 1990 and 1995, the highest sub-regional growth rate being in South East Asia at 40% per year, followed by North Asia at 30% per year, Oceania at 20% per year and South Asia at 16% per year.
The Particleboard consumption growth rate at 15% per year was also well above average, with South East Asian countries recording a growth rate of 25% per year, followed by South Asia at 20% per year, North Asia at 15% per year and virtually zero growth in Oceania.
The Plywood and Veneer growth rate for the region was only 8% per year between 1990 and 1995, but this figure masks the extreme variations of a 20% growth rate in China, a zero growth rate in Japan, and a negative recorded growth in Taiwan Province of China and South Asia.
The growth rate for other fibreboards (hardboard and softboard) was only 4.4% per year over the region, but these products are only consumed in fewer than half the countries of the region and, apart from China and Japan, the volumes consumed are very small.
Other products such as Oriented Strand Board (OSB) and Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL) are relatively new to the region and consumption is confined mainly to Japan and other North Asian countries.
The most probable growth scenario for the Asia Pacific from 1995 to 2010 is probably conservative, showing total wood based panel consumption increasing from 44.4 million m³ to 96.4 million m³ per year by 2010, which represents an average regional growth rate of 5.3% per year, down by half from the 10% growth rate achieved between 1990 and 1995. The variations within this scenario range from China, with an initial growth rate of 7.5% per year to 2000, falling to 6% per year to 2010; South East Asia and South Asia with an initial growth rate of 7% per year to 2000, falling to 6% per year to 2010, Oceania with a steady growth rate of 4% per year and Japan with a stable growth rate of 3.5% per year to 2010.
The optimistic growth scenario assumes that the region overcomes its current crop of political and financial problems and instabilities, and projects that wood based panel consumption could increase to 117.5 million m³ by 2010, which represents an average growth rate of 7.7% per year throughout the region, down slightly from the 10% growth achieved between 1990 and 1995. This forecast is closer to the expected levels of economic growth in the major countries of the region, and is a distinct possibility, but there are strong negative influences to be overcome first, if this scenario is to be realised.
The pessimistic scenario is unashamedly gloomy and projects a wood based panel consumption level of only 78.8 million m³ in 2010, representing an average regional growth rate of only 4% per year, which is a major drop from the 10% growth rate achieved between 1990 and 1995. The scenario is not impossible however, if the financial sector failures occurring or looming in Japan, Republic of Korea and Thailand are not stopped and the economies turned around. China too has problems to face with the overhaul of its ponderous, loss-making state sector enterprises, which could cause grave economic and political problems.
The most probable scenario for the period from 1995 to 2010 has been analysed in more detail between the types of panels. MDF growth rates are projected to continue at 12.5% till 2000 and to decline to 7.5% per year by 2010. Particleboard growth rates are also projected to decline and to level out at around 6.8% per year by the end of the period. Plywood growth rates are expected to decline to 3.2% per year by 2010. Other fibreboard consumption is expected to decline to a growth rate of 2.6% per year by 2010.
The economic growth and political stability of North Asian countries are the real key to the scenario which will be finally taking place, as the six countries of the sub region account for around 80% of the total wood based panel consumption of the region and 90% of the imports (mainly from South East Asia).
