6.1. General Overview
6.2. North Asia
6.3. South East Asia
6.4. Oceania
6.5. South Asia
In Tables 26 to 50 attached to this report, we have presented our most probable scenario projections for the future consumption of wood based panels in the 25 principal countries of the Asia Pacific region, between 1995 and 2010. Table 51 presents a summary of total wood based panel consumption, actual and projected, between 1990 and 2010, and Tables 52 to 56 present the same periodic summary for the individual types of wood based panel, under the headings, 'Plywood & Veneer', 'Particleboard', 'MDF', 'Hard & Soft Fibreboard' and 'OSB & LVL'.
The total panel summary in Table 51 is based primarily on the relationship between the growth rates of GDP and wood based panel consumption, though the future projections are affected by current economic thinking in the region, which includes recent changes in economic outlook in China, Republic of Korea, Japan and Thailand.
The fact that total wood based panel consumption in the region has grown by over 10% per year over the last five years has, to some extent, been attributed to the effect of sudden changes in the deteriorating supply situation of hardwood sawlogs and veneer logs from South East Asia, which have stimulated a burst of activity in the production capacity of MDF in the region, affecting the substitution effects between thin MDF and thin plywood, primarily on economic grounds.
To simplify the study findings, only the most probable scenario of future economic growth rates and wood based panel consumption growth rates has been adopted in these tables, where several significant panel consuming countries in the region (the 'Asian Tigers') are achieving the coveted 'developed country' levels of per capita GDP, and are thus expecting slower economic growth rates in the future. Future regional economic and wood based panel consumption growth rates are forecast to level off at 5.5% per year from 1995 to 2000 and at 5.0% per year from 2000 to 2010.
The pessimistic and optimistic future growth scenarios are shown, region by region, in Tables A.7 to A.10 in this section, with corresponding decreases and increases in the forecast economic and panel consumption growth rates. In general, the pessimistic scenarios show a marked slowdown in the economies of the region, attributed to the imminent political changes in China, Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a continuation of the 'slow growth' scenario in Japan. The optimistic scenarios show a steady continuation of the trends observed during the 1990 to 1995 period.
6.2.1. China
6.2.2. Japan
6.2.3. Republic of Korea
6.2.4. Taiwan Province of China
6.2.5. China, Hong Kong SAR and Macau
Table A.7 below shows the optimistic, most probable and pessimistic scenarios for wood based panel consumption in the countries of North Asia from 1995 to 2010.
The most probable scenario of growth is very similar to the one prepared by the Chinese Academy of Forestry in Section 2 of the Outlook Study, with growth rates slowing down from the hectic 20% per year level of the early 90's to 7.5% per year from 1995 to 2000, and a steady 6% per year from 2000 to 2010 (compared to the Academy's rather pessimistic forecast of a 5% growth rate). The optimistic scenario shown here is also a possibility, with a 10% growth rate to the year 2000, followed by a decade of 7% per year growth, which is similar to the average growth patterns in South East Asia over the last ten years. The argument for the pessimistic scenario, of a 6% per year growth rate, slowing down to 4% per year from 2000 to 2010, would be to reflect the effect of the growing problems of the loss-making and inefficient state sector enterprises, and the painful solutions that will have to be found to turn them around.
The most probable 3.5% per year growth rate scenario for Japan is a reflection of current economic growth rates of a more confident Japan that has weathered a long recession through the early 90's, with a series of property-related financial and banking disasters, hopefully now behind it. The country's continuing ability to post massive trade surpluses and expand its exports provides a solid basis for confidence in the future. The optimistic scenario with a 4.5% per year growth rate is not a serious possibility, as the per capita consumption of wood based panels of 130 m³/1000 capita is already above average for OECD countries. The pessimistic scenario of a 2.5% growth rate is similar to the performance of the last five years, which could continue if the banking and financial sector continue to stagnate or collapse, causing serious economic growth problems.
Table A.7. - W. B. Panel Consumption Scenarios - North Asia
|
Country |
Scenario |
Consumption (1,000 M³/Yr) |
||||
|
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
Growth Rates |
||
|
China |
Optimistic |
16258 |
26175 |
36720 |
51410 |
10% / 7% / 7% |
|
Most Probable |
16258 |
23350 |
31240 |
41800 |
7.5% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
16258 |
21750 |
26470 |
32220 |
6% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Japan |
Optimistic |
13699 |
16670 |
20770 |
25880 |
4.5% / 4.5% / 4.5% |
|
Most Probable |
13699 |
16320 |
19410 |
19410 |
3.5% / 3.5% / 3.5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
13699 |
15490 |
17520 |
19820 |
2.5% / 2.5% / 2.5% |
|
|
Republic of Korea |
Optimistic |
3804 |
5340 |
7140 |
9550 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
3804 |
4929 |
6334 |
8092 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
3804 |
4630 |
5630 |
6860 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Taiwan Province of China |
Optimistic |
1910 |
2680 |
3580 |
4800 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
1910 |
2451 |
3141 |
3947 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
1910 |
2320 |
2830 |
3440 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
China, Hong Kong SAR |
Optimistic |
406 |
570 |
760 |
1020 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
406 |
532 |
695 |
887 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
406 |
495 |
600 |
730 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Macau |
Optimistic |
37 |
52 |
70 |
93 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
37 |
46 |
57 |
71 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
37 |
45 |
55 |
67 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
TOTALS |
Optimistic |
36114 |
51485 |
69040 |
92750 |
7.5% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
36114 |
47628 |
60877 |
77987 |
5.5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
36114 |
44730 |
53110 |
63140 |
4.5% / 3.5% / 3.5% |
|
The economic growth rate of Republic of Korea has already slowed down from the 9% levels of the early 90's, and current political instability and financial problems are expected to bring growth rates back to a sustainable 5% per year for the foreseeable future. With a speedy (but unlikely) solution to the current political impasse, and a wood based panel consumption level of 83 m³ per 1,000 capita, the more optimistic scenario of 7% and 6% growth rates is a real possibility, but if the financial problems grow worse, the economy could conceivably slow down even further, with a possible 4% growth rate as a result.
The wood based panel consumption growth rate slowed down a little in the early 90's, but with a per capita consumption level of 88 m³ per 1,000, there is still room for growth, and with a current GDP growth rate of 6.5% per year, the most probable scenario for the future is considered to be a steady 5% per year growth rate in wood based panel consumption.
The optimistic scenario is based on a consumption growth rate of 7% from 1995 to 2000, declining to 6% from 2000 to 2010, and these growth rates are real possibilities in view of the increasing level of the island's investment in mainland China, including the forest industry sector. The pessimistic scenario assumes a steady consumption growth rate of 4% per year till 2010, though this is only likely if the political situation regarding the status of Taiwan Province of China deteriorates significantly in the near future.
China, Hong Kong SAR has reverted to Chinese control, and Macau will follow shortly, so a discussion of their prospective growth rates is probably quite meaningless. However it is relevant to note that, with almost the highest per capita incomes in Asia, the combined population of the two have a per capita consumption of wood based panels of only 63 m³ per 1,000 capita, which is lower than expected, and probably due to a higher proportion of their GDP being attributed to financial services and other 'non-industrial' uses. Their consumption data will have little effect on future consumption data from China.
6.3.1. Indonesia
6.3.2. Malaysia
6.3.3. Thailand
6.3.4. Philippines
6.3.5. Singapore
6.3.6. Brunei
6.3.7. Vietnam
6.3.8. Myanmar, Laos & Cambodia
The growth in Indonesian wood based panel consumption between 1990 and 1995 shown in Table 51 appears to be almost 900%, but the data is probably affected by plywood stock balance changes, so that the 1990 consumption level is probably understated. The per capita panel consumption level in 1995 was still only 10 m³ per 1,000. An estimated growth rate of 15% per year is probably more realistic, and the most probable future growth scenario in Table A.8 below predicts a consumption growth rate of 7% till 2000, which is closer to estimated GDP growth levels, declining to 6% per year to 2010.
The optimistic scenario shows an initial growth rate of 10% per year, declining to 8% per year to 2010, and this scenario is quite possible, if the country settles down after the recent electoral and political turbulence. If the turbulence increases however, the pessimistic scenario shows a steady growth rate of 5% per year, which would be an excellent performance for many countries but, in South East Asia, would be considered disappointing.
Table A.8 - WB Panel Consumption Scenarios - S. East Asia
|
Country |
Scenario |
Consumption (1,000 m³/yr) |
||||
|
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
Growth Rates |
||
|
Indonesia |
Optimistic |
1920 |
3090 |
4540 |
6670 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
1920 |
2570 |
3446 |
4569 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
1920 |
2450 |
3130 |
3990 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Malaysia |
Optimistic |
1150 |
1850 |
2720 |
4000 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
1150 |
1630 |
2160 |
2890 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
1150 |
1470 |
1870 |
2390 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Thailand |
Optimistic |
931 |
1500 |
2200 |
3230 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
931 |
1319 |
1805 |
2452 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
931 |
1190 |
1510 |
1930 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Philippines |
Optimistic |
458 |
670 |
940 |
1320 |
8% / 7% / 7% |
|
Most Probable |
458 |
609 |
784 |
1004 |
6% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
458 |
580 |
710 |
870 |
5% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Singapore |
Optimistic |
316 |
460 |
650 |
910 |
8% / 7% / 7% |
|
Most Probable |
316 |
403 |
514 |
656 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
316 |
380 |
470 |
570 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Brunei |
Optimistic |
9 |
13 |
19 |
26 |
8% / 7% / 7% |
|
Most Probable |
9 |
12 |
15 |
19 |
6% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
9 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Vietnam |
Optimistic |
36 |
60 |
85 |
125 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
36 |
50 |
68 |
90 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
36 |
46 |
58 |
74 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Myanmar |
Optimistic |
21 |
34 |
50 |
73 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
21 |
29 |
39 |
53 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
21 |
26 |
34 |
44 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Laos |
Optimistic |
7 |
11 |
17 |
24 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
7 |
10 |
13 |
18 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
7 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Cambodia |
Optimistic |
3 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
TOTALS |
Optimistic |
4851 |
7693 |
11228 |
16388 |
9.5% / 7.8% / 7.8% |
|
Most Probable |
4851 |
6636 |
8850 |
11757 |
6.5% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
4851 |
6166 |
7811 |
9905 |
5% / 4.8% / 4.8% |
|
The economic growth rate of Malaysia has slowed down slightly from the hectic pace of the early 90's, but is still around 8% per year. With a wood based panel consumption growth rate of 12% per year from 1990 to 1995, the per capita panel consumption level reached 58 m³ per 1,000, one of the highest in South East Asia. The most probable future scenario in Table A.8 below predicts a consumption growth rate steadying down to 7% per year till 2000 and declining further to 6% per year till 2010. With ample timber resources however, and major infrastructural projects in the pipeline, the optimistic scenario is eminently feasible, depicting a 10% growth in consumption per year till 2000 and a steady 8% per year till 2010. There are some concerns however about the long term financial stability of the Malaysian economy and if these fears are realised, the pessimistic scenario predicts a possible drop to a steady consumption growth rate of only 5% per year.
Thailand has also had an excellent economic growth rate over the last seven years, and this is matched by the wood based panel consumption growth rate of 12% per year from 1990 to 1995, when per capita consumption levels reached 16 m³ per 1,000. The economy has slowed down however and the most probable growth scenario in Table A.8 therefore predicts a 7% growth rate till 2000, followed by a steady 6% per year growth rate till 2010. With mounting worldwide concern about the Baht, and the troubled financial sector however, the optimistic growth scenario of a 10% growth to 2000, followed by a growth rate of 8% per year to 2010, does not look to be a serious possibility. More likely is a continued downturn in the economy with a possible pessimistic consumption growth scenario of 5% per year.
Despite a period of political stability through the early 90's, the economic growth rate of the Philippines has not matched that of its South East Asian neighbours, and is still just less than 6% per year. However, partly because it was starting off from the very low wood based panel consumption level of only 4 m³ per 1,000 capita, consumption growth rose at 10% per year from 1990 to 1995 and, at 6.5 m³ per 1,000, is still very low by regional standards. The most probable scenario in Table A.8. predicts a growth rate of 6% per year to 2000, followed by 5% per year to 2010. Given continued economic and political stability however, the optimistic scenario growth levels of 8% per year to 2000 and 7% per year to 2010 are reasonable possibilities. With possible problems following a new presidential election however, the pessimistic scenario depicts a lower growth rate of 5% per year to 2000 followed by 4% per year to 2010.
Because Singapore is both a major importer and exporter of wood based panels, the apparent consumption levels vary widely due to opening and closing stock levels, and they varied from 78,000 m³ to 464,000 m³ per year during the period 1990 to 1995, averaging 250,000 m³ per year, and a growth rate of 5% per year. This represents a panel consumption level of 80 m³ per 1,000 capita, and the most probable growth scenario predicts a continuation of a steady 5% per year growth in consumption till 2010. The optimistic growth scenario assumes that Singapore can get back to its more normal GDP growth rates of 8 to 9%, with a panel consumption growth rate of 8% to 2000, declining to 7% to 2010. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the current economic stagnation continues, with a panel consumption growth of only 4% throughout the period.
The panel consumption level of Brunei in 1995 was 9,000 m³, or the equivalent of 30 m³ per 1,000 capita, but in volume terms it had varied from 2,000 m³ to 37,000 m³ per year from 1990 to 1995, and with a small, very rich country such as Brunei, averages and trends tend to be relatively meaningless. The three scenario calculations in Table A.8 are therefore rather academic and could be vastly exceeded by one major infrastructural project in the capital.
The past record of Vietnam is little guide to its future performance, and its wood based panel consumption stagnated at 36,000 to 40,000 m³ throughout the 1990 to 1995 period, which represented a per capita consumption level of only 0.5 m³ per 1,000.
The country undoubtedly has the potential for strong economic growth and parallel growth in wood based panel consumption, and with a current GDP growth rate of over 9% per year, the most probable growth scenario predicts a consumption growth of 7%, declining to 6% per year. If the political and bureaucratic obstacles to growth are removed, the optimistic scenario could be a consumption growth of 10% per year, declining to 8% per year, and a pessimistic growth rate of only 5% per year.
The comments made about Vietnam above apply equally to Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. The wood based panel consumption levels of these countries were low and stagnant throughout 1990 to 1995, and represented per capita consumption levels of only 0.4 m³ per 1,000, 1.4 m³ per 1,000 and 0.3 m³ per 1,000 respectively in 1995, virtually the lowest in the region.
Future predictions are difficult, but for the sake of consistency, we have used the same most probable, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios as for Vietnam. They all have strong economic potential, but there are no current signs of the political will and stability needed to start on the path of serious economic development.
6.4.1. Australia
6.4.2. New Zealand
6.4.3. Papua New Guinea
6.4.4. Fiji
6.4.5. Other Islands
The growth scenarios for the countries of Oceania are shown in Table A.9. below. Australian per capita consumption levels had reached 87 m³ per 1,000 in 1995, and the panel consumption growth rate had averaged 5.5% from 1990 to 1995. Influenced primarily by the slow recent and current economic growth rates of around 3% per year, the most probable panel consumption growth scenario predicts a steady growth of 4% throughout the 1995 to 2010 period.
The optimistic growth scenario is a growth rate of 5% per year and the pessimistic growth rate is 3% per year. The country is stable and already well developed, so no wild swings in economic or panel consumption growth are anticipated.
Table A.9 - WB Panel Consumption Scenarios - Oceania
|
Country |
Scenario |
Consumption (1,000 m³/yr) |
||||
|
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
Growth Rates |
||
|
Australia |
Optimistic |
1603 |
2045 |
2610 |
3330 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
Most Probable |
1603 |
1932 |
2348 |
2863 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
1603 |
1860 |
2155 |
2500 |
3% / 3% / 3% |
|
|
New Zealand |
Optimistic |
720 |
920 |
1170 |
1500 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
Most Probable |
720 |
881 |
1069 |
1302 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
720 |
835 |
970 |
1120 |
3% / 3% / 3% |
|
|
P. N. Guinea |
Optimistic |
45 |
60 |
80 |
108 |
6% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
45 |
57 |
72 |
93 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
45 |
55 |
67 |
80 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Fiji |
Optimistic |
9 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
6% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
9 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
9 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Other Islands |
Optimistic |
20 |
27 |
36 |
48 |
6% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
20 |
25 |
32 |
41 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
20 |
24 |
30 |
36 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
TOTALS |
Optimistic |
2397 |
3064 |
3912 |
5008 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
Most Probable |
2397 |
2906 |
3536 |
4318 |
4% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
2397 |
2785 |
3235 |
3752 |
3% / 3% / 3% |
|
New Zealand currently has a per capita wood based panel consumption level of 200 m³ per 1,000, which is one of the highest levels in the world. The country is a major producer and exporter of MDF panels, and has shown itself to be very innovative in the utilisation and marketing of MDF. Nevertheless, its relatively low current GDP growth rate of 2.3% per year and its very high per capita consumption has influenced the most probable growth scenario, which predicts a steady continued consumption growth of 4% per year to 2010. As with Australia, the optimistic growth scenario is a steady 5% per year and the pessimistic growth scenario is a steady 3% per year. It is also a stable, highly developed country and wild swings or growth variations are not anticipated.
The wood based panel consumption level of Papua New Guinea in 1995 was only 10 m³ per 1,000 capita, consisting mainly of domestically manufactured plywood. There had been no growth in consumption from 1990 to 1995, but the country's economy is growing steadily, and the most probable consumption growth scenario predicts a steady growth level of 5% year from 1995 to 2010, with an optimistic growth level of 6% per year and a pessimistic growth level of 3% per year.
Fiji experienced a period of political turbulence in the early 90's and its total wood based panel consumption declined from 13,000 m³ in 1990 to 9,000 m³ per year in 1995, representing a drop from 16 m³ to 11 m³ per 1,000 capita. The political scene is now much calmer and the GDP growth rate is 4.4% per year, so the most probable consumption growth scenario predicts a panel consumption growth level of 5% per year, with an optimistic growth level of 5% and a pessimistic growth level of 4% per year.
The other Pacific islands are all minor panel importers, and the same growth scenarios have been used for them as for Fiji.
6.5.1. India
6.5.2. Pakistan
6.5.3. Sri Lanka
6.5.4. Bangladesh
6.5.5. Bhutan
6.5.6. Maldives & Nepal
The steady economic liberalisation of India is continuing under the new coalition Government, and the GDP growth rates of 5% to 7% per year achieved since 1990 are continuing. The wood based panel consumption levels grew by 10% per year between 1990 and 1995, nearly reaching a per capita consumption level of 1.0 m³ per 1,000 by 1995. The most probable scenario for future consumption growth in Table A.10 above predicts a growth rate of 7% per year to 2000, declining to 6% per year to 2010. The optimistic scenario is a continuation of the 10% growth rate to 2000, declining to 8% per year to 2010. The pessimistic scenario is a relapse to previous steady growth rates of 5% per year.
The total wood based panel consumption in Pakistan grew only at 1% per year between 1990 and 1995, and the per capita consumption level in 1995 was only 0.7 m³ per 1,000. With GDP growing only at 6% per year, the most probable consumption growth scenario in Table A.10 predicts a 6% growth rate to 2000, declining to 5% per year to 2010. The optimistic growth rate is expected to be 8% per year to 2000, declining to 6% per year, and the pessimistic growth rate is shown as 5% per year, declining to 4% per year by 2010.
Table A.10 - WB Panel Consumption Scenarios - South Asia
|
Country |
Scenario |
Consumption (1,000 m³/yr) |
||||
|
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
Growth Rates |
||
|
India |
Optimistic |
829 |
1335 |
1960 |
2880 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
829 |
1154 |
1575 |
2094 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
829 |
1060 |
1350 |
1720 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pakistan |
Optimistic |
90 |
132 |
175 |
235 |
8% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
90 |
118 |
152 |
196 |
6% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
90 |
115 |
140 |
170 |
5% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Sri Lanka |
Optimistic |
50 |
75 |
100 |
130 |
8% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
50 |
65 |
84 |
108 |
6% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
50 |
64 |
78 |
95 |
5% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Bangladesh |
Optimistic |
10 |
16 |
24 |
35 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
10 |
14 |
18 |
22 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
10 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Bhutan |
Optimistic |
13 |
19 |
26 |
34 |
8% / 6% / 6% |
|
Most Probable |
13 |
18 |
24 |
31 |
6% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
13 |
17 |
20 |
25 |
5% / 4% / 4% |
|
|
Maldives |
Optimistic |
2 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
Nepal |
Optimistic |
3 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
10% / 8% / 8% |
|
Most Probable |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
|
TOTALS |
Optimistic |
997 |
1585 |
2295 |
3331 |
9.6% / 7.8% / 7.8% |
|
Most Probable |
997 |
1376 |
1863 |
2464 |
7% / 6% / 6% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
997 |
1270 |
1612 |
2041 |
5% / 5% / 5% |
|
Despite the country's semi permanent civil war-footing, the economy of Sri Lanka continues to grow steadily, and wood based panel consumption grew by 10% per year between 1990 and 1995, reaching a per capita consumption level of 2.7 m³ per 1,000 by 1995. Table A.10 shows a most probable growth scenario of 6% per year to 2000, declining to 5% per year to 2010. The most optimistic scenario is an 8% per year growth, declining to 6% per year, and the pessimistic scenario is a 5% per year growth, declining to 4% per year to 2010.
The wood based panel consumption level in Bangladesh was virtually stagnant through the early 90's, reaching a total volume level of only 10,000 m³ in 1995, which represented a per capita consumption level of only 0.08 m³ per 1,000, almost certainly the lowest consumption level in the region. Nevertheless, the current GDP growth rate is 4.7% per year and the most probable growth scenario in Table A.10 shows a 7% per year growth, declining to 6% per year. The optimistic scenario shows a 10% per year growth, declining to 8% per year, and the pessimistic scenario shows a steady 5% growth rate to 2010.
Tiny Bhutan in the Himalayas has the highest per capita wood based panel consumption in South Asia, with a 1995 level of 18.5 m³ per 1,000 capita, and a total volume of 13,000 m³ per year. Table A.10 shows a most probable growth scenario of a continuation of the current 6% per year consumption growth rate, declining to 5% per year. The optimistic scenario is an 8% per year growth rate, declining to 6% per year, and the pessimistic scenario is a 5% per year growth rate, declining to 4% per year.
The Maldives & Nepal import small quantities of wood based panels and their consumption is expected to grow at the same general rate as the rest of South Asia.
