LIST OF THEMATIC STUDIES FOR THE FORESTRY OUTLOOK STUDY FOR AFRICA

The thematic studies will provide an overview of the situation, trends and future prospects (to the year 2020) of key areas related to forest conservation and development in the Africa region. The studies will provide a regional analysis of the topic, but should indicate differences within the region, where applicable presenting the information by sub-region (using the FOSA sub-regional breakdown).

These studies will draw upon the information made available in the two FOSA baseline studies: 1) population and income/economic features; and 2) land cover and land use in Africa. The thematic studies are to use the demographic, economic and land cover/land use data-sets provided in the baseline documents in calculations involving these variables. They should also adopt the assumptions that have been used by the baseline studies in making predictions of future scenarios for population, economic conditions and land cover.

The emphasis of the thematic studies should be on the trends and future, rather than on the past and present. The studies should all take a similar approach by including the following points: a) overview and current status of the topic; b) discussion of the constraints/issue; c) analysis of underlying driving forces/causal factors of the constraints (distinguishing between the endogenous and exogenous factors); d) likely outcome and prospect in response to these trends; e) available responses (to endogenous factors); f) presentation of future alternative scenarios; g) external assumptions and linkages to other relevant sectors and analyses; and h) (annex) main sources of information used.

The following is a preliminary list of thematic papers proposed for the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa.

External impacts on forest and tree resources in Africa

Forest and agriculture interface in Africa: Current status and future directions

Analysis of the current and future relationship between forestry and agriculture in Africa - forests as a "land reserve" for agricultural expansion (where and how much); trends in integrated land use systems (agriculture on forest lands; forestry on agriculture lands); trends and future scenarios for management of silvopastoral systems in Africa; current and potential impacts of developments in agricultural research and agricultural policies on forests; impacts of economic policies on the relationship between agriculture and forestry land uses; general trend with regard to dependency on land and its implications on land use.

Impacts of urbanization on forest resources and situation, trends and prospects in urban and peri-urban forestry in Africa

Links between urbanization and forest cover, land use, and consumption of forest products; prospective urbanization patterns and potential impacts on forest resources; options and prospects for mitigating negative impacts; responses in rural, peri-urban and urban areas.

Impact of globalization on forestry sector in Africa

Effect of globalization on Africa as a region and on its sub-regions; sectors and activities that will be most affected; their impact on forestry sector; probable changes in comparative advantages of the sector in relation to the factor endowments; potential opportunities and the areas/sub-regions/ sectors that could take advantage of the emerging opportunities; how well are they prepared to benefit from these opportunities; which sectors are most likely to have negative effects; what measures are to be taken to mitigate the adverse effects.

Susceptibility to and impacts of natural disasters, wars and civil unrest on forests and forest resources (including wildlife)

Impacts of past natural disasters, wars and civil unrest on forests and forest resources, efforts and their effectiveness to mitigate the negative impacts, possible future impacts.

Conservation and management of forest and tree resources in Africa

Status, trends and future scenarios for management of moist tropical forests in Africa

Location, extent and condition³ of moist tropical forests in Africa; land tenure patterns and issues; status and trends in forest use; complementarity and conflicts with other land uses; degree and causes of deforestation and forest degradation; illegal and poor logging practices; status and trends in management and relative emphasis give to productive (for wood and non-wood forest products) and protective functions; efforts to improve management and harvesting practices; implications of criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management; long-term prospects for sustainable management of moist tropical forests.

Status, trends and future scenarios for management of dryland forests in Africa

Location, extent and condition⁴; land tenure patterns and issues; status and trends in use of dryland forests in Africa; status and trends of management and relative emphasis give to productive (for wood and non-wood forest products) and protective functions; degree and causes of deforestation and forest degradation; role of and response to forest fires; efforts to improve management practices (for wood and non-wood forest products, grazing, etc.); complementarity and conflicts with other land uses; developments and role of criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management (SFM); long-term prospects for sustainable management of dryland forests; extent, location and causes of desertification; ongoing efforts to control desertification and their efficacy; role of forestry in mitigating desertification; inter-country collaboration in combating desertification;); implications of the Convention to Combat Desertification on dryland forest management.

Status, trends and future scenarios for management of upland forests in Africa

Location, extent and condition; use patterns of upland forests in Africa; land tenure patterns and implications on management and use; role of upland forests in watershed management and in mountain development; status of management; degree and causes of deforestation and forest degradation; efforts to improve management practices; long-term prospects for sustainable management of upland forests.

Status, trends and future scenarios for forest conservation including protected areas

Analysis of situation, trends and future prospects for nature conservation, with an emphasis on parks and protected area establishment and management; the current and future significance of parks and protected areas in biological diversity conservation; relationship between conservation and development; trends in and lessons from the integrated conservation and development approach; current status and future prospects for ecotourism.

Status, trends and future prospects of wildlife resources in Africa

Analysis of situation, trends and future prospects of wildlife resources in Africa; use and management; domestication and commercialization; international trade; traditional and local user rights vrs national and international efforts to conserve biological diversity.

Status, trends and prospects for forest plantations in Africa

Situation of forest plantations in Africa (extent, species); trends in plantation establishment and management; economic, environmental and technical factors influencing future development; policy initiatives that support or hinder plantation development; future prospects for forest plantations.

Status, trends and prospects of trees outside forests in Africa

Status and trends in the extent, ownership and use of trees and tree resources outside forests (in other wooded lands, trees on agricultural lands, scattered trees in the landscape); economic and environmental roles of trees outside forest, management issues; policy and legal issues and efforts related to development of the resource; future prospects for development.

Social and environmental roles of forests and trees in Africa

Current and potential roles of forests, woodlands and trees in income generation and poverty alleviation in Africa

Analysis of the role forests and trees play in poverty alleviation and food security and in the livelihoods of forest dwellers and forest dependent people in Africa; analysis of gender-related issues in forest and tree management; current situation and future prospects for increasing the social benefits of forests for the poorer and more disadvantaged sectors of the population.

Socio-cultural significance of forests in Africa

Importance of forests for human habitats (forest-dweller), burial grounds, sacred groves, etc. and their role in maintenance of cultural values and in environmental conservation; impact of cultural values and beliefs on forestry development.

Current and future roles of African forests in mitigation of global climate change and opportunities for forestry investment through carbon offset initiatives

Role of African forests in carbon storage and sequestration; implications of the Kyoto Protocol for future investments in forestry (through conservation, afforestation/management, substitution).

Economic role of forests: forest products sector

Wood demand and supply situation, trends and prospects to 2020: implications for wood products production, consumption and trade in Africa

Analysis of current situation and future prospects for production, consumption and trade of wood products (industrial roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, paper and pulp for paper, including non-wood and recycled fibre in Africa).

The role and future prospects to 2020 for woodfuels in the energy sector

Quantity and patterns of woodfuel (fuelwood and charcoal) consumption and production (links with gender, income levels, urban/rural dynamics), sources of woodfuels and changes in supply; availability of alternative fuels; impact of fuelwood use patterns on forest and tree cover; future scenarios for woodfuels supply and demand, related also to possible effects of policies related to other energy sources.

Status, trends and prospects to 2020 for non-wood forest products production, consumption and trade

Analysis of current situation and future prospects for production and consumption of non-wood forest products (main collectors/users; main products in various parts of Africa, major sources (degree of domestication vs. collection from the wild), level of commercialization and marketing issues, degree of international trade, bio-prospecting and intellectual property rights, and future prospects for non-wood forest products development.

Forest products industries: status, prospects for technological developments, and institutional arrangements

Status of forest industries (sawmilling, pulp and paper, wood-based panels) - level of development and technological know-how; public/private ownership patterns; efforts to encourage investment in forest industries; future prospects for forest industries.

Enabling environment: institutional and financial conditions for forestry

Trends, outlook and options in forest policies and legislation in Africa

Situation and trends in sectoral planning; potential impact of increased emphasis on national forest programmes; situation and trends in forestry policies; relationship between national policy and international initiatives and conventions related to forestry; trends in forestry legislation; new approaches to policy development; future emphases in forestry policies.

Institutional framework for forest administration and governance in Africa

Situation and trends in forest administration; patterns of resource deployment for the protection and management of forests; indications and reasons for institutional failures in the forestry sector in Africa (i.a.; effect of poor governance and corruption on forest conservation and management; insufficient or inappropriate resource allocation); various institutional structures employed at the national level to implement national forest policies (parastatals, commissions, ministries, etc.); roles and values of the main stakeholder groups and options for overcoming resistance to change; impact of macroeconomic adjustment on forest management; alternative institutional models (e.g., private sector, community-based management), their relations to forest administration and the legal and policy conditions necessary for their effective operation; main elements of a future strategy for development finance institutions in supporting forest institutions in African countries.

Situation and opportunities for investment in the forestry sector

Status and trends (amount and emphases) in investment in the forestry sector by public and private sector; shifts in priorities (e.g., in favour of SFM); amount and shifts in official development assistance in forestry and related to other sectors; linkage between government funding, ODA and private sector investment in forestry sector; current status, trends and prospects of private sector involvement in forestry in Africa; factors contributing to increased private sector investment; complementarity between private and public sector investment; social and environmental aspects of private sector investment.

Status, trends and future prospects for forestry research and extension in Africa

Status and trends of forestry research in Africa (investment levels, human resources, institutional arrangements; main research themes; ability of research institutions to respond to emerging issues); potentials and constraints of regional and sub-regional collaboration; international research efforts; ongoing efforts and prospects for strengthening the science and technology base of forestry in Africa; potential impact on new technologies and networking for information exchange and facilitation of collaboration; local/informal innovation and its linkages with formal research; role of extension in the spread of new technologies/ practices; current state of extension systems and their responsiveness and efficacy; emerging scenarios and alternative arrangements for extension; new trends in extension approaches; options for adjusting extension structures to meet the emerging needs; future scenarios for research and extension in Africa.

Status, trends and future prospects for forestry training and education in Africa

Overall state of forestry training and education (technical and professional) in Africa (number of institutions, number of people annually trained, etc.) and sub-regional variation; adequacy of education facilities; linkage between research and education; response of education system to emerging needs; recent changes in curriculum; emerging areas of importance and the ability of the education system to respond to these; future scenarios for training and education in Africa.

ANNEXE III: ETUDE PROSPECTIVE DU SECTEUR FORESTIER EN AFRIQUE (Cont.)

3 data on location and extent to be taken from the baseline study on land use.

4 data on location and extent to be taken from the baseline study on land use.