Chapter 2 The change drivers

Forests in Botswana, as in most of the developing countries are still a versatile renewable resource, providing simultaneously a wide range of economic, social, and environmental benefits and services. The demand for their numerous functions and outputs will continue to grow in the future. However, the sustainability of the goods and services derived from the forests depends on a number of factors. In the context of Botswana the most critical factors, which may bring about changes in forestry sub-sector during the next two decades, include among others: population growth, socio-economic and political changes, agricultural production, energy needs and consumption patterns, development patterns, institutional frameworks (policies, legislations, land tenure systems), and public education on environmental issues.

Traditionally, Botswana’s society is an agrarian society and forestry appears to be secondary to agriculture despite numerous goods and services people enjoy from the forests. More than 50% of Botswana population is still rurally based and wood still forms vital part of their way of living. Wood accounts for over half of Botswana energy consumption and is a vital raw material for construction and building. The depletion of forest resources is likely to become more widespread and serious in view of the anticipated population growth.

The current population estimate of 1.4 million people is projected to increase at the rate of 2.5% per annum. The majority of the people still reside in the rural areas. The population is concentrated along the railway line running south-north along the eastern side of the country. Population and economic growth have over the years increased the demand for food, wood and space for human settlements and hence put pressure on the available natural resources.

The link between population growth resource use and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalization about direct casual relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to degradation of the environment.(Repetto, 1989). The impact of population growth on the environment will vary in time and space depending on the interaction of several other factors that will mitigate or exacerbate this impact. Such factors include the pattern of distribution of population and the level of economic development of the country.

According to the 1991 National Population and Housing Census, the population of Botswana is put at 1,326,796. The inter-censal (1981-1991) population growth rate (PGR) was 3.5% per annum. The PGR has been estimated at 2.4% and 2.5% for the periods 1991-1996 and 1996-2001 respectively. At that rate the 1999 population is estimated at about 1.6 million. About 80% of the population is concentrated in the eastern part of the country, where both the climate and soils are ideal for agricultural production.(Environ. Statistics, 2000).

The concentration of such a large percentage of the population in such proportionately small part of the country has resulted in exertion of pressure on the resources. For example, biomass resources are abundant in less populated areas, but scarce in the densely settlements.(Environmental Statistics, 2000).

The increase in human population is expected to result in considerable increase in demand for wood products. This factor, coupled with expansion of arable agriculture, rampant bush fires and adverse climatic conditions, as well as the ever increasing populations of both livestock and wildlife will contribute to woodland depletion in Botswana. (see Table 6, 10&11 under annexes)

Only about 6% of the country is suitable for arable production. Most arable production activities take place in the eastern part of the country where climatic and soil conditions are more favourable. The contribution of agricultural sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shrunk from 40% at independence to mere 4%. Livestock production sub-sector is doing fairly well as compared arable production. Productivity in the arable sub-sector is low. Returns to agricultural labour and capital investment are also low.

The protracted incidence of poor weather conditions characterized by variable, and low rainfall, and poor adherence to proper farming practices have adversely affected productivity in this sub-sector.

Despite this decline the agricultural sector remains the main source of food, income, employment and capital formation for the majority of the population living in rural areas. About 2% of formal employment and significant proportion of informal sector employment comes from the agricultural sector. ( National Development Plan 8, 1997/98-2002/03 ).

However the increase livestock populations currently estimated at 2.9 million and the expansion of arable agriculture, are envisaged to continue to impact negatively on the environment.

While in aggregate terms the role of agricultural sector has declined, the direct and indirect linkages of the sector to both rural and the national economy. The importance of these linkages is evident during drought periods when government provides temporary relief to the rural people, primarily to mitigate precipitous declines in agricultural production, income and employment.( National Development 8, 1997/98-2002/03).

Since independence in 1966, Botswana has experienced high rate of economic growth. The real GDP has followed an upward trend, increasing from P746 million in 1974/75 to P5,928.9 million in 1997/98, which represents an average annual growth rate of 9.2%.(Environ. Statistics, 2000). The GDP per capita rose from P1,071.0 to P3787.2 in the same period which is an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The mining sector that took over from agricultural sector as the main contributor to GDP and is largely responsible for the good economic performance.

Although rapid economic growth has led to higher per capita incomes, the wealth is unevenly distributed with respect to urban and rural households. The distribution of both disposable cash income and disposable income is uneven.

While beef production is another important source of GDP, vehicle production has recently overtaken beef as the second largest export earner after diamonds, contributing about 11% of the value of the country’s exports in 1997. In the same year the export shares of Diamonds and beef and other beef products were 74.5% and 2.2% respectively. See Table 8 and 9 under annexes on GDP and GDP per capita, (1974/75-1997/98), and Income by type of settlements, 1993/94 respectively.

The rate of population growth exceeds the rate of job creation. Results from the 1995/96 Labour Force Survey revealed that out of 528,108 economically active labour force covered by the survey, 94,528(18%) people were unemployed, and an additional 28,789 (8%) were under-employed. Consequently, a significant part of the population is dependent on the land for sustenance, mainly through various agricultural activities. In line with increase in the population, pressure on the land resources has been experienced to the extent that the unsustainable use of resource base is now a major concern.(Environ. Statistics, 2000).

Botswana’s economic progress since independence has been one of the success stories of the African continent. Thirty four years ago the country was considered one of the poorest countries in the world, but today it is considered the richest non-oil producing country in Africa.

At independence beef was the main export earner for the country. However by the beginning of the eighties, diamonds had already overtaken beef as the country leading foreign exchange earner. In 1981, diamond exports accounted for 40% of total exports and rose rapidly thereafter to reach approximately 80% of total foreign exchange earnings by 1989. Diamonds continued to dominate the export trade even in the 1990s. However following the establishment of several assembly plants in the country, exports of vehicles surpassed copper/nickel and beef in 1994 to become the second largest export commodity after diamonds. The economy of Botswana has also been boosted by the production of other minerals such soda ash, coal, and gold. Botswana has a number of small to large-scale industries, among the leather game-skin and trophy industries, textiles, beer and soft drinks, soap industry, etc. The country’s tourism industry has over the years experienced a substantial growth rate. It has now become one of the main revenue earner for the country.

With the increase in resources arising from diamonds during the 1980s Government channeled more resources towards the development program and by 1994/95, the total development budget was P591 million. This enabled government in addition to undertaking investment, to address national disasters such as drought. Road networks have significantly improved throughout the country, and schools and health centers have been built to improve access and hence standards of living of Botswana.

Energy in Botswana is characterized by both traditional and commercial energy. Fuelwood is the dominant and most accessible energy source in Botswana. During the period between 1981-1994, the share of fuelwood in annual total of energy supply and demand has been estimated at over 40%. The share ranged from 48% to 63% for Primary Energy Supply (PES), 55% to 77% for Net Energy Supply (NES), and 44% to 58% for Final Energy Consumption (FEC). Throughout the early 1990s fuelwood has accounted for more than 90% of the total annual energy consumption in the household sector, particularly in the rural sub-sector. Studies have shown that other conventional energy source like electricity, petroleum products and coal are not widely used of because they are not affordable and/or accessible. (Environ. Statistics, 2000).

Figure 2.1 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Source(1994/95)

Source: Environ. Statistics, 2000

Fuelwood is mainly used for cooking, heating, and lighting. Generally it is the only energy source used in most of low-income households both in rural and urban areas. The methods, patterns and effects of wood harvesting and collecting depend on location and levels of supply, price and demand for alternative energy sources in specific locations. The regions with low population density and high tree re-growth and woodland density (e.g. north eastern part of Botswana), have abundant fuelwood. On the other, hand in areas of higher population densities and low regeneration rates (e.g. eastern Botswana and around urban and peri-urban centers localized over exploitation is rife. (see Table 7 under annexes).

According to the figures compiled by Energy Division of Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Affairs (MMEWA), fuelwood consumption is estimated at 0.58 tonnes per capita, and Mean Annual Increment (MAI) is estimated at 1.2 tonnes per annum. The average standing crop in eastern Botswana that is the most populated region is estimated at 15.8 tonnes per hectare (MMEWA Report, 1987). The level of fuelwood is influenced by households size, wealth and availability of substitutes. (see Table 3 under annexes)

Botswana at independence had no well-defined national forest policy. Only a number of policy statements were inherited from the colonial days and in recent years most of which delineate, in general terms. The major issues addressed by the policy statement are:

Provide for the protection and conservation and, possible perpetuation of remaining indigenous forests and woodlands in the country.

Create exotic estates or plantations large enough and sufficiently diverse to supply future domestic needs for timber, fuelwood, and other forest produce.

Establish large forest nurseries countrywide to ensure provision of disease-free seedlings for plantation establishment.

Create forest industries dependent on the availability of wood resource and continuity.

Create employment in the rural areas in order to curb down migration from the rural areas to the urban areas.

Establish forestry research sector to undertake research in seed collection and propagation of indigenous tree species, woodland and shrub management.

However, these policy statements have found been wanting in some respects. The statements are too general and the relationship and interdependence with other natural resource sectors is lacking.

The Forest Act, promulgated in 1968 formalizes the provisions for the establishment and conservation of forest reserves: prescribes the procedures for utilization of forest products; highlights rights and privileges granted to local communities; and, identifies those species to be granted protected status on State, tribal and private land. The Forest Act was carefully and clearly designed to ensure the protection and administration of Government forest reserves.

However the effectiveness of the Forest Act is limited by the traditional nature of the land tenure system. Government Forests Reserves cover a mere small area of the country (0.8%), but their protection and management is one of the Act’s main concern.

One of the most serious problems however lies with the tribal lands and depletion of forest resources outside forest reserves. Over-exploitation of forest resources is prevalent in tribal lands particularly around major population centers. Open access communal ownership is inevitably resulting in each individual trying to extract the maximum benefit from the resource for himself/herself.

All these considerable changes in social and economic condition as well as changing environmental conditions have necessitated the review of both the forest policy and legislation to cover the judicious administration of forest resources of the country as whole.

Countrywide consultation to review the National Forest Policy and the Forest Act was undertaken between 1995/97. All stakeholders were involved and they included, Chiefs, Councilors, Land-board members, NGOs, Government Agencies, and Village Development Committees etc. To date a draft of the National Forest Policy has been produced, and it’s waiting to go to Parliament for consideration. Once its complete, then the review of the legislation will soon follow.

The general goal of the National Forest Policy is protection, conservation, development and sustainable utilization of forest land and forest resources for social, economic, ecological and environmental benefits present and future generations of the of Botswana. The goal is consistent with principles, goals and objectives of national as well as sectoral development policies, international initiatives and conventions related to the forestry sector such as Convention on Biological diversity, Desertification, Climate Change, Agenda 21, and United Nations Forest Principles. The revised forest policy embraces the following objectives:

Strengthen the role of forestry in alleviating poverty and increasing equity in forest resources and forestland management and utilization.

Strengthen the role of the forest resources and forestland in promoting economic development, in meeting demand for products, in increasing national revenues and efficiency, creating employment as well as diversification of local, regional and national economy.

Strengthen the role of forest resources and forestland in enhancing environmental functions including soil and water conservation, biodiversity, recreation, habitats for wildlife, carbon-dioxide (CO₂) fixation and other services

Encourage, involve and assist local communities in the conservation, management and sustainable utilization of forest resources.

Create enabling legal and institutional environment so as to effectively implement the policy.

2.7 . Development of infrastructure and communications

The works, transport and communications infrastructure is particularly important for the sustainable development of country such as Botswana given its large area, unevenly distributed population and landlocked nature. Partly because of these characteristics, as well as the sandy terrain, semi-arid climate, topographical conditions and shortage of construction materials, the provision of infrastructure is relatively more expensive in terms of per capita expenditure on development and maintenance than most countries.

A balanced and efficient works, transport and communications infrastructure is an important catalyst for economic development. Government has since independence emphasized its facilitative role through the development of infrastructure and has accorded it priority. This is reflected by successive years of major resource allocations to the works, transport and communications sectors.

Works infrastructure consists mainly of buildings for office accommodation of public institutions. Transport infrastructure includes roads, railways and airports. Communications infrastructure includes telecommunications and postal services.

By the end of the National Development Plan 7 (NDP7), all towns and district centers were served by a well developed and integrated road, civil aviation and railways network. Botswana is adequately connected to its neighbours and most the infrastructure is still new. Better communication networks and infrastructure development is contributing significantly towards economic diversification.

Due to low implementation capacity under NDP7, Government has now adopted new strategies under NDP8 which focuses on cost recovery, privatization, market liberalization, commercialization of services and labour-based methods of executing public works where appropriate. (NDP8, 1997/98-2002/03).