FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2001 ZIMBABWE 48

ZIMBABWE

Area:	387 000 sq.km
Climate:	Centre and north-east tropical wet-dry; south and west semi-arid; rainy season: November-March
Population:	12.52 million (2000 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$520 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Land-locked country; exporter and importer of grain
Logistics:	Exports and imports through Mozambique or South Africa
Major foodcrops:	Maize, wheat, millet, sorghum
Marketing year:	April/March; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	66 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Widespread above-average rains in February and early March resulted in flooding in several parts. Severe damage to transport infrastructure, housing and crops is reported. Worst affected are the north eastern Mashonaland Central province, in particular Muzarabani in the Centernary District, where 15 000 people have lost their homes, and, in general, areas around the Zambezi river system. Foodcrops lost to the floods are reported significant in these parts but a detailed assessment of the extent of the agriculture damage is still underway. Overall, it is estimated that 30 000 people have been affected by the floods. The Government has launched an appeal for US $ 2.34 in emergency assistance and is currently airlifting food and non-food items to inaccessible area.

Prospects for the current foodcrops are unfavourable. Severe dry weather in January, followed by excessive rains negatively affected yields of the 2001 maize and other foodcrops. In the worst affected southern areas, below average precipitation since mid-November has resulted in significant reductions in plantings and yields, with plantings in most districts estimated to be less than 50 percent of normal levels and a poor harvest anticipated. Provisional forecasts indicate an aggregate maize harvest as low as 1.2 million tonnes, or 41 percent below last year's level. This reflects the adverse weather but also a sharp reduction in the area planted reduced as a result of the current programme to resettle large-scale commercial farm and shortages of fuel. At the current production forecast and projected carryover stocks, the import requirement in marketing year 2001/02 would increase sharply at a time the country faces a severe foreign exchange shortage.

Currently, the overall food supply position remains satisfactory reflecting the good maize crop of last year and large carryover stocks. However, the food situation is difficult for poor urban households and those in communal areas that rely on purchased maize. Prices of maize and other staple foods have increased sharply in recent months due to high levels of inflation, fuel shortages and continued depreciation of the national currency. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission will visit the country in late April to evaluate the 2001 food production and import requirements in 2001/02 marketing year (April/March).

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Previous five years average production	253	-	1 889	2 142
Previous five years average imports	124	24	226	374
2000/01 Domestic Availability	342	-	2 198	2 540
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)	250	-	2 198	2 448
2000 Production (rice in milled terms)	250	-	2 198	2 448
Possible stock drawdown	92	-	-	92
2000/01 Utilization	423	25	2 198	2 646
Food Use	373	25	1 624	2 022
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	-	-
Non-food use	10	-	521	531
Exports or Re-exports	40	-	-	40
Possible stock build up	-	-	53	53
2000/01 Import Requirement	81	25	-	106
Anticipated commercial imports	81	25	-	106
Food aid needs	-	-	-	-
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	-	-	4	4
of which: Delivered	-	-	4	4
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	-	-
of which: for local use	-	-	-	-
for export	-	-	-	-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)	30	2	130	162
Indexes
2000 production as % of average:				114
2000/01 import requirement as % of average:				28