FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.40

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  MADAGASCAR

Area:582 000 sq km
Climate:Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rainy season: October-March; tropical cyclones
Population:16.34 million (2002 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$250 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops:Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year:April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:60 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Excessive precipitation from a recent cyclone has disrupted the 2002 main paddy crop harvest, leading to concerns over both the quantity and quality of the crop. There are also concerns about disruption of the harvest due to effects of the political crisis of the past six months, mainly shortages of fuel for field operations. The paddy output is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, down by 200 000 tonnes from 2001. However, a final assessment is still pending.

The tight food supply situation of the past months, with shortages of basic food and increasing food prices in the capital city, have eased with the solution of the political crisis. To assist the country in its economic recovery, international donors in late July pledged US$2.3 billion in aid  over four years. In May, WFP extended its feeding scheme to the country's urban centres following reports of a sharp rise in malnutrition in children under five.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2002/03 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 WheatRiceCoarse grainsTotal
     Previous five years average production92 4951642 668
     Previous five years average imports8811811217
2002/03 Domestic Availability101 6371751 822
     2002 Production (rice in paddy terms)102 4001702 580
     2002 Production (rice in milled terms)101 6321701 812
     Possible stock drawdown-5510
2002/03 Utilization901 8591882 137
     Food use901 7591672 016
       of which: local purchase requirement----
     Non-food use-10021121
     Exports or re-exports----
     Possible stock build up----
2002/03 Import Requirement8022213315
     Anticipated commercial imports7822010308
     Food aid needs2237
Current Aid Position    
     Food aid pledges-15-15
       of which: delivered-2-2
     Donor-financed purchases----
       of which: for local use----
                        for export----
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)510510120
Indexes    
     2002 Production as % of average:   97
     2002/03 Import requirement as % of average:   145

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