4.1 Natural forest status
4.2 Plantations in the Asia-Pacific region
4.3 Asia-Pacific region protected areas and unavailable natural forests
4.4 Asia-Pacific regional experiences with logging bans
4.5 Lessons learned from Asia-Pacific experiences
4.6. Conditions for plantations to successfully substitute for natural forest timber
The Asia-Pacific Region includes over 552 million hectares of forests, including 478 million hectares of natural forests[4], but only about 249 million hectares are presently considered as available for harvest. Insular SE Asia and East Asia dominate in terms of both total natural forests and the area available for harvesting (Figure 4). About 236 million hectares are considered unavailable for harvest at present, including about 89.5 million hectares in legally protected status and 146.5 million hectares that is unavailable due to physical and economic constraints.
The Asia-Pacific sub-region continues to experience deforestation and degradation. For 1990-95, this region experienced a decline of almost 16.3 million hectares of natural forests or approximately 3.25 million hectares annually. The largest losses were in Indonesia (-5.4 million ha), Myanmar (-1.9 million ha), Malaysia (-2.0 million ha) and Thailand (-1.6 million ha). The Philippines had the largest rate of deforestation at 3.5 percent annually, followed by Pakistan (2.9%), Thailand (2.6%), and Malaysia (2.4%).
Figure 4. Asia-Pacific natural forests: Total and area available for harvesting
Source: FAO, 1998aThe Asia-Pacific region produces substantial roundwood, both for firewood and as industrial timber. In 1996, the estimated production was approximately 1 199 million m3 of which 75 percent was woodfuel (Figure5). India, Indonesia and China accounted for the majority of the firewood. Industrial roundwood production was primarily from East Asia (China) and Insular SE Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia). Oceania production was almost entirely from New Zealand and Australia, with a moderate volume (3.2 million m3) from Papua New Guinea.[5]
Figure 5. Asia-Pacific roundwood production by timber type and Sub-Region, 1996
Source: FAO, 1999Total natural forest growth was estimated at about 328 million m3, while industrial roundwood production is an estimated 304 million m3 (Figure 6.). While East Asia (China) shows an apparent positive growth over harvest, South Asia and Insular SE Asia both have large deficits. These sub-regions demonstrated high rates of deforestation. Temperate Oceania shows a slight imbalance, but reflects the exclusion of the proportionately high share of industrial timber from New Zealand which is derived from plantations rather than from natural forests.
The Asia-Pacific region has about 57.4 million hectares of industrial plantations, with a net area of approximately 46.8 million hectares. However, only 3.5 million hectares of industrial plantations are presently considered available for harvest (Figure 7) while large areas of industrial plantations in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and China are young and immature, not yet capable of significant contributions to timber harvests.[6]
Sources: FAO, 1998a and FAO, 1999Figure 7. Asia-Pacific industrial plantations by Sub-Region: Total (net) vs plantations available for harvesting
Source: FAO, 1998aThe estimated Asia-Pacific annual growth on the industrial plantations now available for harvest is about 36.1 million cubic meters. The highest share is in Temperate Oceania with growth of 19.5 million cubic meters (Australia and New Zealand), followed by East Asia with growth of 10.5 million cubic meters (primarily China).
Asia-Pacific has some 89.5 million hectares of legally protected forests, removed from harvesting (Figure 8). The largest legally protected natural forest area is in the Insular SE Asia region (43.3 million hectares) including almost 40 million hectares in Indonesia and 2.8 million hectares in Malaysia. East Asia accounts for 15.4 million hectares of protected area, with over 13 million hectares in China. In spite of the legal protected status, substantial concern remains about the adequacy of the actual on-the-ground protection. Controversy also continues as to the need to set aside additional areas for the protection of representative biodiversity, critical watersheds, and habitat for rare and endangered wildlife and flora.
Figure 8. Economic and Legal unavailable natural forests in Asia-Pacific region by sub-region
Source: FAO, 1998aMuch of the 146.5 million hectares of natural forest currently unavailable in Asia-Pacific is due to physical and economic reasons (Figure 8). This includes forests in Continental SE Asia (31.8 million ha.), East Asia (30.3 million ha.), Tropical Oceania (29.0 million ha.) and South Asia (24.9 million ha.).
Causes of natural forest unavailable for harvesting vary considerably (Figure 9). Physical conditions and terrain (Category I) restricts harvesting on some 58 million hectares, primarily in the Tropical Oceania sub-region (Papua New Guinea, 17.6 million ha.), and Continental SE Asia (Laos, 4.5 million ha. Myanmar, 5.7 million ha. Thailand, 2 million ha.) Other countries with substantial physical constraints on natural forests include India (4.8 million ha.), China (5.0 million ha.) and Australia (9.7 million ha.).
Remoteness and lack of access is less of a constraint in Asia-Pacific (9.5 million hectares) due to generally heavy population pressures in rural areas. Indonesia (3.4 million ha.), Papua New Guinea (4 million ha.) and Laos (1 million ha.) and Nepal (0.9 million ha.) accounting for almost all of this area.
Figure 9. Asia-Pacific natural forests unavailable for harvesting due to physical-economic reasons
Source: FAO, 1998aLow productivity, degraded forests and other site conditions (Category III) limit harvesting on a total of 79.1 million hectares. East Asia, led by China (16.3 million ha.) and Japan (4.5 million ha.), accounts for about 23 million hectares with South Asia (India, 15 million ha.) accounting for an additional 17.9 million hectares. In Continental SE Asia, Thailand has an estimated 6.8 million hectares followed by Laos (4.4 million ha.) and Vietnam (3.9 million ha) of such natural forests. In Temperate Oceania, Australia has about 8.5 million hectares in Category III.
4.4.1 Thailand
4.4.2 Sri Lanka
4.4.3 Philippines
4.4.4 New Zealand
4.4.5 China
4.4.6 Vietnam
FAO undertook a study of logging bans in the Asia-Pacific Region at the request of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission (APFC). The objective was to better understand the role of such bans on harvesting when imposed as a means of achieving natural forest conservation.[7] The study included six case studies with a variety of experiences - China, New Zealand, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.
An estimated 100 million hectares of natural forests, or about 20 percent, in the Asia-Pacific region was either in legally protected areas or in areas covered by complete logging bans. While recognizing the existing protected area network in the region, the APFC study sought to understand the efficacy of the more sweeping and often precipitous imposition of comprehensive harvest restrictions through national logging bans. Such policies are often a political response to natural disasters and typically apply broadly (national or regional) to natural forests that previously were allocated to timber production or multiple uses including timber.
Policy goals for timber bans in the Asia-Pacific are seldom well articulated. Rather such actions are responsive to significant symptoms and consequences of perceived forest policy ‘failures’. Undesirable outcomes from conventional forest practices and utilization are widely taken as self-evident justification for swift and decisive actions. Deforestation and forest degradation of natural forests are a common symptom behind many logging bans. Problems of overcutting beyond sustainable levels, the impact on other forest values and the assumed incompatibility of logging with the protection of environmental functions including damage to residual forest stands and related multiple uses are also common issues in log ban debates. Loss of biodiversity, critical habitats and representative ecosystems, the deterioration of watersheds and water quality, soil erosion, sedimentation and flooding are frequent perceived as environmental consequences of failures in conventional forest practices and harvesting. Finally, the lack of effective reforestation is often seen as a frequent outcome of logging.
Whatever the reasons leading to bans, logging bans have relatively large, immediate, and unanticipated impacts on timber supply. Indirectly bans impact persons and economic units dependent upon forest harvesting, transport, processing and consumption of forest products. Forest plantations, actual or potential, are commonly assumed to be the logical alternative timber supply source. However explicit linkages between logging bans and plantations as an alternative are seldom addressed in logging ban policies, legislation or implementation. The growing role of economic reforms towards more market-based production and consumption decisions (including profitability), together with the implications of comparative advantage in open international trade in forest products, are only indirectly acknowledged in national logging ban policy.
The experiences and findings from the six country case studies
illustrate the linkage between natural forest conservation and logging bans and
the role of forest plantations as a substitute source of timber supply. (FAO
2001)
As a result of their policy to preserve all the remaining
natural forest and other conservation areas, the Thailand government is
promoting increased plantations with 60:40 split between private and state. The
plantations will rehabilitate land and supply timber to the domestic market. The
pursuit of large-scale plantations has faced strong opposition from rural people
who saw them as benefiting the rich. Since 1992 the efforts have been on small
plantations with local participation, but with minimal success. The effect of
the logging ban has been increased illegal logging in neighboring countries so
putting the pressure elsewhere. The almost 900 000 hectares of plantations,
planted since 1906, are not meeting the demand.
The 2 million hectares of natural forests are owned and
managed, including any harvesting and wood marketing, by the State. There are
130 000 hectares of plantations of which over 92 000 hectares are state owned.
Planting started in the late 1920s and are mainly teak, eucalyptus, mahogany and
pines. Prior to the logging ban in 1989 on some forests, the harvest was about
980 000 m3 with 44 percent coming from the natural forests, about 8
percent from plantations, and the remainder was non-forest wood, such as
homegardens and rubber and coconut plantations. At this time Sri Lanka was
almost self-sufficient in wood, most of which (90 percent) went to woodfuel. The
planned harvest from plantations for the current period was to have been 90 000
m3 but it is likely to about one third of this. Plantations have
suffered from poor management, inappropriate species, encroachments, and fire
and elephant damage. Homegardens and other non-forest plantations, coupled with
imports of logs, sawn timber and panel products have been assisting to make up
the deficit.
Logging bans or harvest moratoria cover about 70 percent of
the 15.9 million hectares of forests. The allowable cut from natural forests has
dropped from 5 million m3 in 1990 to one tenth that level. While the
current demand is expected to be about the 1990 level, only 12, 15 and 1 percent
of this is coming from natural forests, coconut and plantations respectively.
Another 16-20 percent is met by imports and the remaining half has apparently
been taken up by substitution to steel and cement and illegal sources.
Plantations, while recognized as being the only reliable source of wood, have
not met expectations. Government policies on industrial plantations have changed
very frequently leading to instability and uncertainty, resulting in low
investment. Philippines is currently focusing on wood imports.
About 24 percent of New Zealand is covered in natural forest
and about 6 percent in plantations, mainly Pinus radiata. Plantation
planting began in the late 1800s and by 1915 it was recognized that the natural
forests would not be able to supply the wood requirements. Both the state and
private companies undertook large plantings between 1927 and 1932. By 1954
harvesting from plantations overtook that from natural forests and today there
is almost no wood coming from the latter. Large additional plantings started in
the 1960s with export in mind. Today production from the plantations is about 17
million m3 of which over half go to export. Projected annual cut is
for about 30 million m3 in 2010. In 2000 a logging ban on all State
owned forests was instituted. Internally the concern is how to meet the
requirements for decorative and specialty wood that traditionally have come from
the native forests.
China has 134 million hectares of forests of which about 65
percent are natural. Due to natural disasters China has established a priority
for natural forest conservation and protection with harvesting to shift to
timber plantations. The current 10-year plan calls for new planting both fast
growing timber plantations and protection plantings on a 1:4 ratio. Over half
the plantations are in the southern region, while the natural forests are
largely in the Northeast and Southeast. Current timber plantations are generally
low quality with estimated volumes at harvesting averaging 74 m3
ha-1 compared to 208 m3 ha-1 in natural
forests. There is estimated to be potential shortfalls of industrial timber of
over 27 million m3 in 2003. This will be met by imports although
eventually plantations will assist.
Plantations cover 1.5 million hectares of which about 42
percent are production forests. Most are young and are located in the central
and northeast regions. Natural forests cover 10.9 million hectares, and
harvesting is being reduced as a result of deforestation, degradation and the
need for watershed protection. There was a 40 percent decline in production from
natural forests between 1990 and 1998 to 1.35 million m3. Firewood
exploitation has decreased by 20 percent but illegal logging has increased.
About 30 percent of large logs used for sawn timber current come from natural
forest, 50 percent from plantations including rubber, and about 20 percent are
imported. Shortages of 1.5 to 2 million m3 are expected to continue
until 2005 so imports are expected to grow. Demand is also rising. There are
plans to regenerate 1 million hectares of natural forest and to plant a further
5 million hectares of plantations, of which 3 million will be for industrial
uses. Funding for this programme is still uncertain.
4.5.1 Impacts on timber production
4.5.2 Alternative timber supplies
4.5.3 International trade implications
4.5.4 Comparative advantage
The Asia-Pacific region natural forests considered available for harvesting are experiencing heavy pressures for harvesting which contribute to continuing deforestation and which spill over onto “presently unavailable” forests. The expected harvest from the natural forests is expected to decline in the Asia-Pacific region. Gross annual growth of commercial species on presently available natural forests exceeds present harvest of industrial timber by about 24 million m3, compared to the production of 304 million m3. Only Continental SE Asia and East Asia have positive net growth. This is partly offset by a negative balance of almost 16.2 million m3 for Japan. Significant negative balances exist for India (-16.2 million m3), Malaysia (-24.9 million m3), Thailand (-2.8 million m3), and Papua New Guinea (-2.4 million m3).
Continued deforestation and degradation at the present rate of
about 3.25 million hectares annually will further reduce the capacity of
Asia-Pacific to produce industrial timber from natural forests. With an average
cutting cycle of about 38 years, present harvesting intensity is about 34
m3 ha-1 for undisturbed natural forests and 17
m3 ha-1 for disturbed forests. Based on the ratio for
available undisturbed and disturbed forests[8],
continuing deforestation could reduce regional harvest by about 1.77 million
m3 per year. The banning of harvesting on one million hectares of
“average” available natural forest could reduce potential harvests by
approximately 550 thousand m3
annually.[9] For example, China’s logging
ban affecting 41.8 million hectares with an estimated reduction in harvest of
19.9 million m3 by 2003 implies an average reduction of 476 thousand
m3 for each million hectares.
Asia-Pacific logging bans involve significant assumptions about alternative timber supply from current or future plantations. The possible shift of China’s harvest to “One Timber Base” is founded on a significant expansion and maturing of fast growing, high-yield industrial plantations. Likewise, Vietnam is relying on the successful implementation of the “5 Million Hectare Programme” for offsetting the logging ban. Serious consequences in both the Philippines and Thailand illustrate the problems when assumed commercial plantations do not develop as planned.
Sources: FAO, 1998a, and FAO 1999If net growth of commercial species from available natural forests and total estimated growth from industrial plantations are available for harvest, the situation for Asia-Pacific would improve by virtue of the estimated 36 million m3 of growth from industrial plantations. The balance between total growth from both natural forests and plantations compared to the 1996 level of industrial timber production improves to +60 million m3 (Figure 10). South Asia, Insular SE Asia, and Tropical Oceania continue to show deficits. Only Temperate Oceania switches from a deficit to a positive balance by virtue of recognizing New Zealand’s harvest primarily derived from existing plantations. Malaysia and India continue to show significant deficits even taking into account plantations.
With growing open trade in forest products, individual countries are able to offset inadequate domestic forest and plantation resources through increased import of industrial timber. The Asia-Pacific case studies indicate the difficulty of being self-sufficient in face of deforestation and adequate plantation resources. Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have promoted greater production from plantations as a strategic part of imposing logging bans for natural forests, but with minimal success. Sri Lanka has significant capacity for timber from private home gardens and other non-forest resources, but Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam do not have such a supply source. These four nations have become net importers of industrial wood, with imports expected to continue to increase. China needs greater imports, at least during the transitional period towards greater future capacity from immature high-yield, fast growing plantations. Only New Zealand has sufficient plantation resources to offset declining production of natural forest timber and to produce a surplus for export.
International trade, supported by plantations in the exporting country, also opens the possibility of shifting environmental damage and deforestation between countries or regions. One country that takes actions to protect and conserve its natural forest resources can ‘export’ the problems to the supplier country through pressures to harvest for export. For example, there have been allegations that Thailand’s logging ban has resulted in both illegal logging and greater imports along the border areas of Lao, Cambodia and Myanmar. Protection of natural forests in China has led to greater imports from the Russian Federation, potentially contributing to unsustainable harvesting in parts of the Russian Far East and East Siberia.
Reduction in output from natural forests either through deforestation, degradation, logging bans, sustainable management, or enlargement of protected areas also leads to domestic and international price adjustments. To the extent that the market-based prices prevail, both suppliers and consumers respond and adjust output and consumption decisions.
A country that has had a comparative advantage in harvesting of natural forest timber may not enjoy an advantage in plantations. A large number of obstacles exist in the Asia-Pacific region to creating economically viable commercial plantations, particularly in relatively small-scale operations. The advantage may shift to other areas within a country, or even between countries. For China, the switch to a plantation-based “One Timber Base” will have substantial impacts regionally within the country. Changing sources of timber supply is a serious threat to established forest based enterprises in the traditional State-owned natural forest regions of the Northeast, Inner Mongolia and the Southwest. Plantations will result in new production capacity in the south coastal provinces that are much more favorably located for high yield, fast-growing species and access to markets. Timber will also be imported in increasing quantities from the Siberian regions of Russia. New Zealand, as a prime source of intensively produced plantation timber, may well exploit export markets in Asia-Pacific at the detriment of plantation development within other individual developing countries.
In the past, non-economic factors and political considerations
have influenced many decisions regarding plantations. Details of species
substitution, efficiencies in growing and harvesting, transport, size or scale
of operations, and a number of other considerations impact where and how
plantations will develop throughout the region. Comparative advantage is largely
based on market economics which is increasingly influencing, if not determining,
plantation decisions.
4.6.1 Access to Forest Lands
4.6.2. Technical and Economic feasibility
4.6.3. Use Conditions and Tenure
4.6.4. Market Access
4.6.5. Investment Capital
The growing influence of economic advantage and international
trade as the basis for plantation development suggests that several fundamental
conditions must exist in order to provide long term incentives for stimulating
investments in intensively growing industrial wood.
Governments legally hold most of the natural forest and lands potentially available for plantation development in the Asia-Pacific region. Use rights are often unclear and tenures subject to political risk. Land may not be made available on a scale sufficient to make commercial operations feasible. In Vietnam, for example, smallholdings under the allocation of forest use to individual farmers, effectively limit the practical feasibility of economically viable private plantations. The earlier policy emphasis in Thailand on large scale, industrial plantations was strongly resisted by local communities and individuals as transferring resource control to ‘the rich’ and often non-local parties at the expense of local welfare.
In many cases only the poorest or degraded forestland may be
allocated for local development. Better forests with healthier forest stands are
mainly “reserved” for State administration and control. With high
rates of poverty, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have faced social
conflicts between indigenous local people and conflicts between traditional
forest use rights and the desire for commercial development. New Zealand, with
extensive private plantations, has demonstrated the feasibility of placing
plantations on “a totally independent commercial footing” and
encouraging private foreign investment. Sri Lanka also demonstrates the
feasibility of creating tenures that permit small-scale home gardens to become
the most significant source of commercial timber.
Much is known about the yields, growth rates and technical
characteristics of species, industrial and woodfuel plantations in the
Asia-Pacific region. However, strategies for growing wood will not guarantee
economic feasibility reflecting returns on investments and capital flows. Some
poplar and eucalypt plantations in China, for example, may be phased out as they
mature due to a lack of adequate demand or profitability.
Where private ownership is not culturally acceptable (as in much of Asia-Pacific) various arrangements are required to determine and allocate tenures or use rights. For example, New Zealand needed to develop clear policies for the conditions of sale/transfer of State plantations allowing for recognition of native Maori claims to the land. Market reforms are leading to new and innovative tenure schemes in China. Conditions of use, decision-making authority, investment, and the ability to capture economic returns need to be clearly identified and guaranteed if private confidence and commitment are to be achieved.
The transferability of long-term tenures and use rights is
also important as a pre-condition for private plantation development. Without
legal protection of such rights, and given the long-term nature of plantation
investments, the willingness to provide human resources, capital and labor to
growing trees is constrained. In the Philippines, for example, the frequency of
policy changes and the corresponding uncertainty has had serious negative
impacts on private plantation development. In Thailand, a bias against
commercial large-scale investors for plantation development, and the need to
obtain cooperation of numerous small local farmers or communities makes viable
operations difficult or impossible. Other forms of governmental regulation and
uncertainty such as transport permits, harvesting restrictions or licenses,
taxes, royalties or fees for privately grown trees, etc all act as deterrents to
private participation in plantation development.
Producing timber on a commercial basis also implies the need
for developed market structures and economic infrastructure capable of assuring
efficiency in the procurement of inputs and the sale and distribution of
outputs. Market information, regarding short and long term assessments and
forecasts, together with technical product knowledge is required to guide
independent managers and producers of plantation timber. Freedom to sell and
distribute output without transportation constraints or pricing restrictions is
also basic to functioning markets.
As Vietnam’s “5-Million Hectare Programme” illustrates, commercial plantations are an expensive undertaking. Massive investments will frequently require joint participation by local and commercial interests, governments, and potentially international foreign direct investment or aid assistance in the form of grants or loans. China’s progress in plantations in the past decade has been made feasible in large part by assistance from the World Bank through a series of afforestation projects assisting in over 2.5 million hectares of plantations. Evidence of technical and biological feasibility, or even superiority, of a fast growing, high yield plantation does not assure availability of investment capital and economic viability.
Efficient growing of plantation timber does not also assure
advantage in domestic processing of that material. Much of the forest industry
infrastructure and technology is old or obsolete in the Asia-Pacific region,
requiring significant capital investment for modernization. Integrated
utilization for more complete recovery of useable products, including wood-based
panels, from waste or residues can extend the resource as well as enhance
economic returns. However, the capital investments required for efficient
technology is often lacking.
