II. STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

Food consumption and nutrition
Nexus between hunger and poverty
Demand and supply at 2015/2030
Prospects for agricultural production

Food consumption and nutrition

During the 31 years 1965-1996 (the Green-Revolution period), developing-countries per caput food consumption increased by 28 percent; from 2053 to 2626 kcal/person/day (Table 1). Increases for South Asia and East Asia were respectively 20 and 43 percent - the latter being the highest among the world's regions and sub-regions. Between 1980 and 1997, developing-world under-nourishment declined by 11 percentage points (FAO, 2000a) - with the bulk of that decline in Asia. In East and Southeast Asia, the percentage of undernourished population decreased from 29 to 13, and in South Asia from 38 to 23 (Table 2) (FAO, 2001b).

Table 1: Per caput food consumption (kcal/person/day)

Country Grouping	1964/66	1995/97	2015	2030
World	2357	2761	2960	3100
Developing countries	2053	2626	2860	3020
South Asia	2013	2424	2790	3040
East Asia	1953	2783	3020	3170
Industrial countries	2945	3374	3490	3550

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Region	Percentage undernourished
	1979-81	1990-92	1996-98
Sub-Saharan Africa	37	35	34
Near East and North Africa	9	8	10
East and Southeast Asia	29	17	13
South Asia	38	26	23
Latin America and the Caribbean	13	13	11

Source: FAO, CFS: 2001/2

Mortality rates for children under five provide a good indicator of the nutritional status both the children and of their mothers. In 1998, child-mortality rate in developing countries was 13 times that of OECD countries (Table 3). Malnutrition is acknowledged to be the major cause of child mortality in developing countries. The child-mortality rate in developing countries declined by 14 percent between 1990 and 1998, against a targeted decline of 30 percent; declines in East Asia and Pacific and in South Asia were respectively 22 and 26 percent.

Figure 1: Undernourishment (numbers of persons, by region)

Source: SOFI 2000, FAO

Region	1970	1980	1990	1997	1998	Reduction 1990-1998
East Asia & Pacific	126	82	55	46	43	22%
Europe & Central Asia	n.a.	n.a.	34	29	26	24%
Latin America & Caribbean	123	78	49	41	38	24%
Middle East & North Africa	200	136	71	58	55	22%
South Asia	209	180	121	100	89	26%
Sub-Saharan Africa	222	188	155	153	151	3%
Developing countries	167	135	91	84	79	14%
OECD	26	14	9	6	6	30%

Source: World Bank Statistical Information Management and Analysis (SIMA) database.
Note: n.a. = Not Available

Between 1980 and 2000, stunting decreased (globally) from 221 million (47 percent) to 182 million (32.5 percent). Southeast Asia experienced the strongest decline, followed by South Asia and South America. South-Central Asia has the highest prevalence of children underweight and stunting; because that sub-region has very high population, it accounts for about one-half of the global total of malnourished children. More than half of South Asia's young children suffer from protein-energy malnutrition - about five times the prevalence in the Western hemisphere, at least three times the prevalence in the Middle East, and more than twice that of East Asia.

There are gender as well as rural-urban divides in nutritional attainments. Female children face gender bias in the allocation of food: the nutritional status among girls, particularly in South Asia, is inferior to that of boys. Similarly - and primarily due to higher poverty and illiteracy - rural-area children are more malnourished than their urban counterparts. These divides have implications for the inter-linkages of social, economic, biological, and physical sciences.

Micro-nutrient deficiencies - as well as calorie and protein malnutrition - are severe in Asia, causing serious health and human-development problems. Nutritional deficiencies of iron, iodine, and Vitamin A are major concerns in South and Southeast Asia; rickets and zinc and selenium deficiencies are additional concerns in some areas. Anemia, caused mainly due to iron deficiency, is most prevalent in South and Southeast Asia, where 76 percent of pregnant woman and 63 percent of pre-school children are anemic (Figure 2). In Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Nepal, more than 70 percent of pregnant women are anemic, and South Asia accounts for about 50 percent of the world's anemic women (WHO, 1999; FAO, 1998a). Babies of anemic women are more likely to be born prematurely, to be underweight, or to die as newborns or to remain anemic if they survive; thus by their very birth they compound their nation's health and development problems. Although not well appreciated, besides the depressed overall physical and mental ability, there is a devastating effect on economies: in South Asia alone there is an estimated total annual loss of $ 5 billion (ACC/SCN and IFPRI, 2000).

Two hundred million people in the world suffer from goiter. In addition, 6 million have cretinism (severe mental retardation). About half of these are reportedly in South and Southeast Asia. Nepal, Indonesia, Bhutan followed by Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, as also China, Thailand and South Korea have high incidence of iodine deficiency. Children born to mothers with goiter, on attaining adulthood, are likely to be 10 percent less productive than the children born to mothers without goiter (Gillespie and Haddad, 2000). Iodized salt intake has fortunately caught up rather fast and has been effective in reducing iodine deficiency. Agricultural approaches such as dipping potassium iodate into irrigation water and genetic manipulation for efficient absorption of iodine by crops could greatly supplement the other efforts in managing the deficiency.

Figure 2: Anaemia: pre-school children and pregnant women (by region, 1999)

Preschool children

Pregnant women

Source: ACC/SCN and IFPRI, 2000

Nexus between hunger and poverty

There is a strong link between poverty and food insecurity. As seen from Table 4, during the period from 1987 to 1998, as the incidence of poverty fell in Asia and the Middle East-North Africa, the prevalence of undernourishment concurrently declined. South Asia, which in 1998 had 522 million people with incomes less than US $ 1 a day, 44 percent of the world's people in this category, also had the largest number of undernourished people, 294 million, over 39 percent of the world's hungry people. National incomes (measured by per caput GNP) are lowest in the countries where undernourishment is high (Figure 3). It is a matter of concern to note that during the last decade of the 20^th century, there is a negligible improvement in per caput incomes in those countries that have over 20 percent of their population undernourished. Therefore, the twin objectives of the World Food Summit (WFS) and the UN Millennium Summit of halving undernourishment and poverty by 2015 are highly interconnected and interdependent.

Table 4: Poverty and undernourishment compared

Region	1998	1996-98	1996-98	1998
	People living in households that consume less than $1/day	Share undernourished	Number of undernourished	Number of poor
	(percent)	(percent)	(million)	(million)
South Asia	39.99	23	294.2	522.00
East Asia	15.32	12	155.0	278.32
Eastern Europe and Central Asia	5.14	6	26.4	23.98
Latin America and the Caribbean	15.57	11	54.9	78.16
Middle East and North Africa	1.95	10	35.9	5.55
Sub-Saharan Africa	46.3	34	185.9	290.87

Source: FAO, CFS, 2001/2

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2000

Table 5: Undernourishment: developing countries

Region	Million persons			Percent of population
	1995/97	2015	2030	1995/97	2015	2030
Developing countries	790	576	401	18	10	6
South Asia	284	165	82	23	10	4
East Asia	240	144	86	13	7	4

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Source: SOFI 2000, FAO

Table 6: Undernourishment: Asia-Pacific region

Region/Sub-region/country		Number of people undernourished (millions)		Proportion of undernourished in total population (%)
		1990-92	1997-99	1990-92	1997-99
Developing world		816.3	777.2	20	17
Asia and the Pacific		564.8	497.1	20	16
East Asia		197.6	126.9	16	10
	China	192.6	116.3	16	9
	DPR Korea	3.4	8.8	17	40
	Mongolia	0.8	1.0	34	42
Oceania		0.9	1.2	24	26
	Papua New Guinea	0.9	1.2	24	26
Southeast Asia		77.6	65.9	17	13
	Cambodia	4.3	4.6	43	37
	Indonesia	16.7	12.0	9	6
	Lao PDR	1.2	1.4	29	28
	Malaysia	0.6	0.4	3	-
	Myanmar	3.9	3.2	9	7
	Philippines	16.0	17.2	26	24
	Thailand	16.9	12.9	30	21
	Viet Nam	18.0	14.2	27	19
South Asia		288.8	303.0	26	24
	Bangladesh	39.2	44.1	35	33
	India	214.6	225.3	25	23
	Nepal	3.5	5.0	19	23
	Pakistan	26.5	24.4	25	18
	Sri Lanka	5.0	4.3	29	23

Source: SOFI, 2001, FAO

Demand and supply at 2015/2030

Food demand in developing countries is essentially a function of population growth and income increase. As regards population, with 4.44 billion people in 1995/97, developing countries accounted for 77 percent of the world population (Table 7). In 2030, the proportion will increase to 83 percent with an estimated population of 6.7 billion. South and Southeast Asia together will continue to account for more than 50 percent of the world's population, 53 and 52 percent towards 2015 and 2030, respectively, although the rates of growth will decelerate considerably, especially in East Asia. Given the high base level population and not-so-low growth rate, the share of South Asia in the world's population will increase from the current level of 22 percent to 24 percent in 2030, annually adding 19 million towards 2015 and 16 million people towards 2030. The corresponding increments for East Asia were 16 and 9 million. During the next 30 years, nearly one billion additional people will be added to the population of South, Southeast and East Asia, and half of this addition will take place in India and China.

Table 7: Population: current and projected

Region	1995/97		2015		2030		Growth rate %
	million	% of world	million	% of world	million	% of world	1995/97 - 2015	2015-2030
World	5745	100	7154	100	8112	100	1.2	0.8
Developing countries	4436	77	5778	81	6718	83	1.4	1.0
South Asia	1251	22	1651	23	1915	24	1.5	1.0
South East Asia	1800	31	2133	30	2307	28	0.9	0.5

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Table 8: GDP growth (%/ann)

Region	Total GDP		Per caput GDP
	1995/97 - 2015	2015 - 2030	1995/97 - 2015	2015 - 2030
World	3.1	3.6	2.0	2.7
Developing countries	4.8	5.4	3.4	4.3
South Asia	5.1	5.1	3.6	4.0
East Asia	5.8	6.3	4.9	5.7

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Another major demographic shift will be that the urban population will swell to 53 percent of the total population in 2030, from the current level of 34 percent. This shift will cause a significant change in the food basket, necessitating enhanced consumption and production of high value commodities such as animal products, including fish, horticultural products and edible oils. Moreover, to feed the cities, the proportion of marketed grain, processed food and other food products will expand rapidly, necessitating much greater emphasis on food processing, value addition, transport infrastructures, sound market institutions and on peri-urban agriculture.

An analysis of the changes in the commodity composition of food by country groups brings out the relative emphasis to be given between crops and animal production systems in the sub-regions. The data given in Table 9 indicate that in developing countries the use of cereals as food will stabilize at around 178 kg/person/year. In South Asia it will increase from 169kg/person/year in 1995/97 to 192 kg/person/year in 2030, but the reverse is the trend in East Asia, dropping from 194 kg to 187 kg. The relatively higher cereal consumption (as human food) in South Asia may be ascribed to the predominance of vegetarians and to relatively slower rate of urbanization in the sub-region as compared with that in East Asia. The share of pulses in South Asia - a main source of protein and an important group of crops in crop rotation - is expected to decrease, which is a set back from the points of view of nutrition and soil fertility. But the intake of animal products, particularly meat in East Asia and milk and dairy products in South Asia, and of vegetable oils and oilseeds is expected to increase by 80 percent in the two sub-regions. Among meat products, poultry will grow at high rates throughout the region, especially in India, while pig production will particularly be high in China and other East Asian countries.

Table 9: Composition of food (by commodity and major country groups)

Commodities	Developing countries as a whole			South Asia			East Asia
	1996	2015	2030	1996	2015	2030	1996	2015	2030
Cereals, food	172	178	178	169	186	192	194	193	187
Roots and tubers	65	69	74	21	26	30	63	62	63
Sugar	20	23	25	24	29	33	11	14	16
Dry pulses	6.9	6.8	6.8	10.6	9.1	8.0
Veg. oils, oilseeds and oil products	9.4	12.4	14.8	8.5	11.9	14.6	8.6	12.2	15.3
Meat (carcass wt.)	23	30	34	5.5	8.2	11.8	33	47	55
Milk and dairy, excl. butter	42	53	67	59	81	116	10	14	19
Total food (Kcal/person/day)	2626	2860	3020	2424	2790	3040	2783	3020	3170

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Table 10: Livestock production growth (% ann)

Region	1987-97	1995/97 - 2015	2015 - 2030
World	1.8	1.7	1.4
South Asia	4.3	3.2	3.2
East Asia	8.9	2.6	1.6

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

In developing Asia, small farmers who constitute nearly 80 percent of all farming and households and practising integrated farming systems, account for the bulk of livestock production. This trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The insufficient supply of fodder and feed has been a major bottleneck in enhancing livestock productivity in the region. Moreover, frequent natural disasters in the Asia-Pacific region have high depressing effects on livestock population and productivity.

Fisheries and aquaculture contribute significantly to food security in the Asia-Pacific region. The region produces almost 90 percent of the aquaculture products of the world and 52 percent of the capture fisheries products (1998) (Table 11). Between 1988 and 1998, the Asia Pacific production of total fisheries increased by about 27 million tons, while in the rest of the world it declined by 10 million tons. The production increases of 11.4 percent annually in aquaculture in the region were particularly notable. The developing Asia-Pacific countries are net exporters of fish and fish products, annually amounting to over US$9 billion during the late 1990s.

Table 11: Fish catch and supply (million tons/ann)

Fish supply	Asia-Pacific region			Rest of the world
	1988	1998	GR (%/an) 1988-98	1988	1998	GR (%/an) 1988-98
Marine capture	31.2	38.0	2.0	51.3	40.3	-2.2
Inland capture	2.9	4.9	5.5	3.3	3.1	-0.6
Aquaculture	9.3	27.1	11.4	2.4	3.7	4.6
Total	43.4	70.0	-	57.0	47.1	-

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Cereals and oilcrops are the main group of crops which are consumed both by humans and animals, and allocation of these commodities to livestock is likely to grow faster than in the past. Based on the cereal balances (rice, wheat, and coarse grains) in the production and demand scenario (Table 12), it is seen that in South Asia demand growth will outstrip production growth by 0.1 percentage point up to the year 2030; whereas in East Asia demand will outpace production by 0.2 percentage point up to the year 2015, and will break even afterwards. As regards oilseeds, oilcake and oil: in South Asia consumption will exceed production by 0.7 percentage points up to the year 2015, after which it will even out (Table 13). But in East Asia a gap of 0.3 percentage point will persist up to 2030. The projected production and consumption growth rates for oilseeds and vegetable oils in the region are about 80 percent higher than those for cereals.

Table 12: Cereal: growth in demand, production, and human population (% ann)

Region	Demand		Production		Population
	1997-2015	2015-2030	1997-2015	2015-2030	1997-2015	2015-2030
World	1.4	1.1	1.4	1.1	1.2	0.8
South Asia	2.0	1.3	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.0
East Asia	1.4	0.9	1.2	0.9	0.9	0.5

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Region	Total food use (in million tons)	Production growth rate		Consumption growth rate
	1995/97	1995/97 - 2015	2015 - 2030	1995/97 - 2015	2015 - 2030
World	62.9	2.1	1.9	2.2	1.9
South Asia	10.6	2.5	2.4	3.2	2.4
East Asia	15.6	2.3	1.9	2.6	2.2

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Cereals demand is expected to outstrip production both in South and East Asia, the self-sufficiency rate in South Asia falling from 97 to 94 percent and in East Asia from 94 to 90 percent over 1995/97 - 2030 (Table 14). In order to close the gaps between local production and consumption, South Asia which is currently a net importer of about 1 million tons of cereals, will become a net importer of 16 and 26 million tons in 2015 and 2030, respectively (Table 15). East Asia which is already a high net importer of 37 million tons of cereals, will be enhancing its net import to 60 and 79 million tons in 2015 and 2030, respectively. Most of this increase will occur in China - primarily for meeting the increasing demands for animal feed. The bulk of this increase will consist primarily of coarse grains, particularly maize, as in 1995/97 nearly 79 percent of the use of maize grain in China was for non-food purposes, mostly as feed. After its entry into WTO, China's import of rice is likely to increase.

Table 14: Cereal: balance (million ton/ann) of demand and production

Years	Demand		Production	SSR* %
	Food	All Uses
World
1995/97	979	1844	1836	100
2015	1257	2393	2397	100
2030	1428	2801	2805	100
Developing countries
1995/97	765	1107	996	90
2015	1029	1550	1352	87
2030	1197	1886	1615	86
South Asia
1995/97	211	235	227	97
2015	306	343	327	95
2030	368	418	392	94
East Asia
1995/97	348	526	493	94
2015	413	683	624	91
2030	432	787	708	90

*SSR = Self Sufficiency Rate = Production/Demand (all uses)
Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Region	19965/97	2015	2030
Developing countries	-107	-198	-270
South Asia	-1	-16	-26
East Asia	-37	-60	-79

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/30, FAO

Prospects for agricultural production

Agricultural production as a whole at the global level has kept pace with demand. Had there been greater demand, world agriculture would have positively responded to meet the demand. Three main factors were responsible for the limit on the demand side: (a) the slow down in population growth, (b) a growing share of world population has attained fairly high levels of per caput food consumption, and (c) the undernourished were too poor to purchase more food or were too resource-poor to produce more food. The existing situation and projected trends of these factors suggest a slowing of demand. On the other hand, the production side will be greatly influenced by the per caput availability of material and other production resources, the levels of various yield gaps, overall environmental conditions, new technologies, appropriate policies, and nature and quality of socio-economic settings.

As seen from Table 16, demand growth rates for the world, the developing countries, South Asia and East Asia have declined during the period 1997-2015 when compared with those during 1977/1997. This deceleration was in line with population growth rates during the two periods. Production growth at the global level matched the demand growth rates. For the developing countries as well as for South and East Asia the demand growth marginally outstripped production growth. The decrease over the two periods was most pronounced in East Asia, primarily due to the trend in China; the demand growth rate dropping from 4.8 percent in 1977-97 to 1.9 percent in 1997-2015 against corresponding production growth rates of 4.7 and 1.8 percent.

Table 16: Growth (5/ann) in aggregate demand, production, and human population

Region	Demand		Production		Population
	1977-97	1996-2015	1977-97	1996-2015	1977-97	1996-2015
World	2.1	1.6	2.1	1.6	1.6	1.2
D'v'p'ng countries	3.7	2.2	3.6	2.1	2.0	1.4
South Asia	3.3	2.6	3.3	2.5	2.2	1.5
East Asia	4.8	1.9	4.7	1.8	1.5	0.9
idem, excl. China	3.5	1.9	3.2	1.9	1.8	1.2

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

As regards crop production, during the 30-year period 1967 to 1997, the developing countries registered a satisfactory crop production growth rate of 3.1 percent (Table 17). East Asia, with a growth rate of 3.6 percent, played the eminent role in pushing the global average. South Asia, with a growth rate of 2.8 percent, also performed well. During the succeeding 34-year period, the growth will slow down to 1.2 percent in East Asia but will maintain a moderate rate of 1.9 percent in South Asia.

Table 17: Growth (%/ann) in crop production

Region	1967-1997	1995/97 - 2030
South Asia	2.8	1.9
East Asia	3.6	1.2
All Developing Countries	3.1	1.6
Industrial Countries	1.4	0.8
World	2.2	1.3

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Table 18: Proportionate Sources of growth in crop production

Region	Arable land expansion		Increase in cropping intensity		Yield increases
	1961-1997	1995/97 -2030	1961-1997	1995/97 - 2030	1961-1997	1995/97 - 2030
South Asia	7	5	14	12	79	83
East Asia	26	5	-6	12	80	83
All developing countries	24	20	5	11	71	69

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO