Commodity report: World outlook for forest products I

Trends in the consumption of forest products
Sawnwood

Part I of a report prepared for the FAO Committee Commodity Problems

Few forest products enter directly into consumption; the vast majority are producer's goods. Moreover, since these products enter into every sector of the economy, in different forms and in differing quantities, the estimation of future demand for them - which is overwhelmingly a derived demand - presents special problems. Short cuts in demand forecasting can be misleading. For example, sawnwood, the most important intermediate forest product, enters into housing and nonresidential construction (as structural timber, joinery, flooring, formwork, etc.), shipbuilding and repair, road and rail vehicle manufacture, wood packaging, furniture, tools and implements, toys, and so on.

Activity in each sector is subject to different influences, and wood use in each sector is determined by different technical trends. Thus forecasts of aggregate demand for sawnwood, whether based on extrapolation of historical trends or on more sophisticated procedure, are apt to err. This is why all serious recent attempts at forecasting the demand for forest products have, where available statistics have permitted, adopted the "end-use" approach. This is the case for a number of national studies conducted in recent years in Canada, India, New Zealand, South Africa and the United States and for the cycle of regional studies on which FAO, in collaboration with the regional economic commissions of the United Nations, is currently engaged. In fact, the estimates of demand for forest products in 1970 included in the pages which follow lean heavily on studies recently completed or currently in progress,¹ eked out by guesses, more or less informed, for those regions which have not yet been closely studied.

¹Timber trends and prospects in the Asia-Pacific region (FAO/ECAFE 1961);
Latin-American timber resources and requirements (FAO/ECLA: recently completed, to be published in 1962);
A reappraisal of European timber trends and prospects (FAO/ECE - in progress: probable publication date early 1963. This study is a successor to European timber trends and prospects published by FAO/ECE in 1953);
Timber requirements and resource, in Africa (FAO/ECA - in progress: will probably be completed by mid-1963);
Timber resources for America's future (Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1968);
The outlook for the (Canadian forest industries (Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, 1967);
Resources for tomorrow (conference background papers on forestry, Resources for Tomorrow Conference, Montreal, 1961).

One group of forest products does lend itself to more sophisticated statistical treatment: paper and board.

Here a number of studies (both time series and cross-sectional analysis) have revealed a rather consistent relationship between per caput consumption of these products and per caput income. The estimates used here are based on those included in a 1959 FAO publication,² with certain revisions where more recent data have shown the need for changes.

²World demand for paper to 1975 (FAO, 1980). This publication includes an account of the methodology used.

Most of these projections rest on the broad assumption that the price of wood relative to other materials remains unchanged or, to be more precise, that the supply curve is constant. The unreality of this assumption becomes clear if one considers for a moment the conditions under which wood is produced. First, wood is not a homogeneous material; there are thousands of species, all different, of all qualities and dimensions. Wood from different parts of the same tree has different uses, different values. Quality as well as dimension will vary with the age of felling. Timber is a crop like any other agricultural crop, but the crop cycle may range from a few years to a hundred years or more. Finally, the product (wood) is also the means of production (the tree), a fact full of significance for the elasticity of supply in the medium and long term. Add to all this the facts that only one third of the world's forests are at present in use, and that of the remainder the vast majority lie presently beyond economic reach (though the area economically accessible increases year by year), the hollowness of attempts to predict future forest output from a consideration of supply conditions alone becomes clear. Indeed the purpose of attempts to forecast the demand for forest products is essentially to obtain guidance for setting appropriate forest production goals.

This article will not, however, attempt to discuss the complex questions of forest production goals, forest policy and forest industry development planning to which estimates of future timber needs inevitably give rise. It will content itself with establishing the trend in the consumption of several broad wood categories up to 1970 and discussing in very general terms some of the possible implications for future trade in wood and its products. Supply considerations - whether of resources or of wood processing capacity - will not be examined in detail, although they are inevitably touched on lightly in passing.

Demand projections, as mentioned earlier, are taken partly from completed studies, partly from work in progress. The basic assumptions which underlie the projections of population and income growth are, with minor exceptions, those used in the original studies. Where the base and forecast years differ, adjustments have been made to permit comparability at the 1957-59 average and at 1970.

Trends in the consumption of forest products

Wood may be broken down by sawing, slicing, peeling, chipping or pulping and may be reconstructed by gluing and/or pressing into sheets or boards of wood or paper. The general term "forest products" thus includes the output of a variety of wood transformation industries; it also includes a number of products which have undergone little or no processing, such as fuelwood, fenceposts and pitprops. Nevertheless, products do fall readily into a relatively few classes or groups according to the type and degree of processing.

In the following appraisal forest products are summarized under the following groupings:

(a) sawnwood, including wooden boxboards, and sleepers (railway crossties);

(b) wood-based sheet material, including plywood, veneers, fibreboard (e.g., insulating board and hardboard), and particle board;

(c) paper and paperboard, including newsprint, other printing papers, writing papers, corrugated paperboards, etc.;

(d) roundwood products (e.g., pitprops, poles, pilings, etc.):

(e) fuelwood

The first four categories taken together are usually termed industrial wood.

After considering each of these categories in turn, an attempt is made to aggregate estimates of future needs in terms of roundwood equivalent.

Sawnwood

World consumption of sawnwood (including box boards and sleepers), traditionally the most important forest product in terms of volume, has steadily risen over the last decade at an average annual rate of about 4 percent. This implies an annual rise in global per caput consumption of about 1.6 percent. However, several regions have fared very differently and Table I shows that, in volume terms, the main increases have occurred in Europe and the U.S.S.R. (two regions where in 1947/49 timber production had not vet recovered from wartime dislocation) and in Asia. These three regions together account for 90 million cubic meters of the recorded world increase of 100 million cubic meters over the decade. In North America, there has been a decline in per caput consumption from about 0.6 to 0.5 cubic meter during the past decade, and North American consumption now represents but 30 percent of the world total as against over 40 percent a decade ago. This decline in per caput consumption (in spite of the marked rise in per caput GNP') has been mainly caused by the secular increase in the relative price of sawnwood which has led to wood economies and substitution of sawnwood by completing products, frequently themselves wood based. A similar trend has been registered in those European countries where per caput consumption levels have been high (0.2 to 0.6 cubic meter per caput). In other European countries, however, per caput consumption has risen slightly, substitution and wood economies having been more than offset by the effects of rising industrial production and greater constructional activity. The increase in total sawnwood consumption for Europe as a whole was about 20 percent for coniferous sawnwood and over 30 percent for broadleaved sawnwood.

The U.S.S.R. had in 1960 a per caput consumption of about 0.5 cubic meter and accounted for nearly one third of world consumption. In Japan, consumption reached nearly 0.3 cubic meter per caput.

TABLE 1. - TRENDS IN SAWNWOOD CONSUMPTION 1947-49 To 1957-59

TABLE 2. - PRESENT APPARENT CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS OF SAWNWOOD

Region	Sawnwood		Log equivalent
	1967-69	1970	1967-69	1970
	Million cubic meters(s)		Million cubic meters ®
North America	96.7	118.0	182.0	251.5
Latin America	13.8a	20.4	28.0a	42.0
Europe	70.3	-	118.0	134.0
U.S.S.R.	90.0	-	160.0	220.0
Near East	1.5	2.4	3.8b	8.0
Far East (excl. Mainland China)	31.3	-	68.3	79.7
Mainland China	8.0	-	I 6 0	60.0
Oceania	5.8	7.3	11.8	16.0
Africa	3.2	-	8.3	9.0
WORLD TOTAL	320.2	-	574.0	771.2

^aAverage for 1956-59.
^bIncludes an allowance for unrecorded production.

These three regions - North America, Europe and the U.S.S.R. - together with Japan, account for nine tenths of world consumption. In other regions of the world the rise has been steady though less spectacular. The coming decade will see a further substantial rise in world requirements of sawnwood⁴ though the rate of growth is likely to fall well short of that registered over the last decade, at the beginning of which several regions still suffered from postwar shortages. Changed construction methods in the U.S.S.R., together with the rapid development of panel materials to substitute for sawnwood, indicate that the rise in per caput consumption of sawnwood will not be as marked in the coming years. Nevertheless, a substantial rise in total consumption over the next few years is foreseen in the current plan. Published plans for Mainland China also envisage a considerable rise in sawnwood production and consumption. In Japan, where sawnwood prices have risen rapidly recently, the growth in consumption will certainly slacken off. In Europe, the substitution of sawnwood by other materials has already gone very far and the next decade is unlikely to bring any further marked reduction in per caput consumption. In other regions of the world modest rises in per caput consumption, of the order of 10 to 20 percent by 1970, are foreseen. Thus by 1970 world consumption of sawnwood may rise to around 430 million cubic meters, as compared with 320 million cubic meters in 1957-59.

⁴See Table 2 and Annex Table A.

Wood-based sheet material

The main wood-based sheet materials are veneer, plywood, fibreboard and particle board. Fibreboard and particle board are sometimes also manufactured from nonwood materials. Veneers and plywood are long established products and by contrast particle board is a very new product. All these products have grown rapidly in importance since 1945 and although they account even now for only four percent of the world's consumption of industrial wood, the continued rapid growth justifies a considerable measure of attention.

Veneers. Separate statistics for veneers are generally inadequate for detailed appraisal. The great bulk of veneer is, however, used in plywood manufacture. Fibreboard statistics are often (and particularly in trade) not readily separated from those of paperboard. Data on particle board are quite incomplete and, of course, limited to recent years.

Plywood. Consumption in North America (where the per caput level of 0.05 cubic meter is by far the world's highest) has increased over the past decade at an average annual rate of more than 8 percent. In Europe as a whole, consumption approximately doubled over the same period. Generally, although there are notable exceptions, those European countries with the higher per caput consumption levels have shown the most rapid increases and they have reached the level of North America's per caput consumption of a decade ago. In the U.S.S.R., per caput consumption levels and the rate of growth have closely paralleled the European average. Japan's consumption has grown at the striking rate of 18 percent per annum and its per caput consumption is now surpassed by only a few countries of Europe and by North America and Oceania. North America, Europe, the U.S.S.R. and Japan combined account for 95 percent of world consumption.

Although consumption levels are still low in most other countries, the rate of growth has been impressive. The rest of Asia has increased total consumption to five times the level of a decade age. African consumption has more than doubled, while that of Latin America, although recently declining slightly, has trebled over the decade.

Past forecasts of growth in plywood consumption have generally proved to have been not sufficiently optimistic, and it may well be that those shown in this appraisal will, in spite of the recent slowing down of the rate of increase in some major consuming regions, also prove conservative.

Fibreboard. North America consumes nearly half of the world's fibreboard and Europe approximately one third. The U.S.S.R., Oceania, South Africa, Japan and Brazil account for the great bulk of the remaining consumption. Over the past decade, consumption in North America has increased by 50 percent and in Europe by 150 percent. The Scandinavian countries, the world's highest per caput users, have not shown as rapid increases as Europe as a whole. In the U.S.S.R., consumption is several times that of a decade ago. Prospective rates of increases over the next decade may well be as rapid as in the past. Inadequate statistics prevent a precise appraisal of trends for many countries, even of the more developed regions.

Particle board. Despite the general lack of statistics on particle board, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the major consumers, the Federal Republic of Germany, North America, France and Japan have increased consumption to three, four or more times that of five years ago. Although most of the early production was based on the use of mill residues, there is a growing use of smaller sized and lower quality roundwood as raw material. There are many reasons for expecting the growth in the more developed countries to continue at a fairly rapid rate. In the less developed regions rapid consumption increases will be most probably in those countries which are deficient in areas of indigenous forest and particularly in those which have established plantations of fast-growing species, providing large quantities of small sized material. In areas with good supplies of veneer logs and saw logs development of particle board production will tend to be limited to those countries with large domestic markets.

Annex Tables B. C and D show data for this group of products.

Paper and paperboard

Per caput consumption of paper and paperboard has been found, at least on a regional basis, to be quite closely correlated with per caput income levels. The effect of increases in income, however, vary considerably from product to product and at different income levels, so that the relationship is not a simple direct one.

In North America, where per caput consumption levels are highest, total consumption, still more than one half the world total, continues to grow, but at a less rapid rate than in most other regions. For newsprint, the increase over the past decade has been less than 25 percent, compared with an increase of 100 percent in Europe, where the per caput consumption of a few countries is already approaching that of North America. For all other papers and paperboard, the North American growth has been about 30 percent while the consumption of the remainder of the world has nearly doubled. In the Far East, consumption increased by more than 300 percent from 1948 to 1958. Japanese consumption increased more than 500 percent over the decade.

The per caput consumption of paper and paperboard is shown in Table 3 for the various regions. The level of use is much higher in North America than elsewhere, although newsprint consumption in Oceania is also high. Some countries in the developing regions, such as Japan, South Africa, Israel, and several Latin-American ones stand intermediate to Europe and the U.S.S.R. in rate of use. This emphasizes the extremely low level of consumption still prevailing in most of Africa, Asia and to a lesser extent in Latin America.

TABLE 3. - PER CAPUT CONSUMPTION OF PAPER AND PAPERBOARD BASED ON 1957-59 AVERAGE

Region	Newsprint	Other paper and	Total
	Metric tons per 1,000 capita
North America	34.0	143.0	177.0
Europe	8.2	35.0	43.0
Oceania	22.0	33.0	55.0
U.S.S.R.	1.6	13.0	15.0
Latin America	3.2	9.0	12.0
Near East	0. 4	2.2	2.6
Far East (incl. Mainland China)	0. 6	2.6	3.2
Africa	0. 8	2.9	3.7

TABLE 4. - PRESENT CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS OF PAPER AND PAPERBOARD

Region	Apparent consumption 1957-59			Requirements 1970
	Newsprint	Other paper and paperboard	Total	Newsprint	Other paper and paperboard	Total
	Million metric tons
North America	6.56	26.95	33.51	9.20	45.60	54.80
Latin America	0.62a	1.73a	2 35a	1.40	4.00	5.40
Europe	3.44	14.63	18.07	6.39	27.98	34.38
U.S.S.R.	0.33	2.65	2.98	1.23	7.47	8.70
Near East	0 04	0.20	0.24	0.09	0.29	0.38
Far East (incl. Mainland China)	0.97a	4 03a	6.00a	3.48	13.99	17.46
Oceania	0. 33	0.49	0.81	0.51	0.93	1.44
Africa	0.13	0.52	0.65	0.26	0.92	1.17
WORLD TOTAL	12.42	51.16	63.58	22.55	101.16	123.70

NOTE. Figures do not add exactly because of rounding,

^aAverage, for 1956-59.

Table 4 summarizes Annex Tables E to H which set out the apparent consumption based on the 1957-59 average and gives estimates of consumption in 1970.⁵ Predicted rates of increase are lowest in North America and Oceania and are highest in the Far East and the U.S.S.R. In spite of the fairly rapid rates of growth indicated, Latin America, Africa, the Near East and the Far East (excluding Oceania) will on the basis of this forecast, still only account for one fifth of the total world consumption.

⁵The basis of these forecasts is explained in World demand for paper to 1975 (FAO, 1960), and in subsequent regional studies.

Roundwood products

Statistics on wood used in the round (other than fuelwood) are incomplete for many countries and many products. It is also a characteristic of such products that those countries using the greatest quantities are often those with the most incomplete reporting. Pitprops, for example, are quite well recorded, particularly in the more developed countries. The use of building poles in construction, on the other hand, is often very great in countries where removals are not recorded. About 12 percent of all recorded and estimated removals of industrial wood is in categories other than sawlogs, veneer logs, pulpwood and pitprops (a roundwood product).

In some instances where regional timber trends studies have been completed there have been estimates of total consumption of wood used in the round and forecasts have been made into the future (Annex Table I). In general, per caput demands for most wood used in the round do not increase greatly with increasing incomes because of the tendency to substitute superior wood or nonwood products. To a limited extent pitprops are an exception to this, but even in this case the substitution of other materials is becoming important. In the United States, wood in the round comprises more than one half of the category recognized as minor wood products, which accounts for about 7 percent of the cut of industrial wood. Little increase was expected in the consumption of this category from 1952 to 1975 (amounting to only about a 9 percent increase in the 12-year period under review here). In Canada, both consumption and export of miscellaneous roundwood product are expected to show little or no change over the next decade or two.

In the various subregions of Latin America, the present consumption of roundwood products is estimated at from 16 to 58 cubic meters per 1,000 capita, and an average of 38 for the region. Per caput consumption is expected to decline slightly resulting in nearly a 30 percent increase in total consumption because of the expected population increase.

In the Asia-Pacific study, consumption of wood used in the round was estimated at from 4 cubic meters per 1,000 capita in southern Asia to 110 cubic meters in Oceania, averaging 25 cubic meters per 1,000 capita. The rate of increase forecast for total consumption would suggest an increase from 1958 to 1970, of 45 percent for southern Asia, 17 percent for eastern Asia and 30 percent for the other subregions.

Fuelwood

As with wood used in the round, present and historical statistics are inadequate for a complete appraisal of the present and prospective situation. The data are particularly lacking in the case of many low-income countries. But even with this incomplete reporting the regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America account for three fifths of the consumption. There is also good evidence that the proportion of removals made up by fuelwood is declining, as it has done sharply in the more developed regions in recent decades. Again, the recent timber trend studies have made estimates which are shown in detail in Annex Table J.

In Canada, where fuelwood accounts for less than 10 percent of the wood cut, total consumption is expected to decline rapidly at a rate which would imply more than a 25 percent reduction from 1958 to 1970. A somewhat similar trend was also forecast for the United States where the estimates would suggest a rate of decline of 38 percent over the same years. To date, the actual trends have closely followed the forecasts.

Estimates of fuelwood consumption in the Far East range from slightly over 1 cubic meter per caput in Indonesia to 0.2 cubic meter or less in India, Pakistan and South Korea. In Latin America, estimates of present consumption vary from nearly 1.5 cubic meters per caput in Brazil to less than 0.3 cubic meter in Mexico, which is similar to the level in North America and Europe.

Low and declining fuelwood consumption levels resect the availability of other fuels and, in the more developed countries, the directing of wood into industrial channels. In several of the less developed countries, however, low and declining levels reflect increasing and often critical shortages of fuelwood supply.

Thus it is that a decline in fuelwood consumption by 1970 is foreseen for subregions such as Mexico, southeast and southwest South America and eastern Asia (including Japan). In Central America, northern South America, Brazil, continental and insular southeast Asia (all areas with appreciable forests), consumption is expected to grow, population increase offsetting the effect of fuel replacement. In southern Asia the problem of replacing dung and agricultural residues as fuel to allow their use as fertilizers creates a special situation.

An optimistic allowance for substantial shift from dung to wood as fuel has been included in the forecasts for southern Asia.

ANNEX TABLE A. - PRESENT APPARENT CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATED FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF SAWNWOOD (INCLUDING BOXBOARDS AND SLEEPERS) IN SOME SELECTED COUNTRIES, REGIONS AND SUBREGIONS

Region	Sawnwood	Log equivalent
	1957-59	1970	1957-69	1970	Index 1970 1957-59 = 100
	Thousand cubic meters (s)		Thousand cubic meters ®
North America	96 700	118 000	182 000	215 500	125
Canada	(8 870)	(10 000)	(19 300)	(21 500)	(112)
United States	(87 830)	(108 000)	(163 000)	(194 000)	(125)
Latin America	13 600a	20 400	28 000a	42 000	150
Near East	1 500	2 400	3 800	6 000	158
Ear East b	31 300	...	58 300	79 700	137
Cont. Southeast Asia	(2 040)	...	(4 400)	(7 000)	(159)
Insular southeast Asia	(2 790)	...	(8 300)	(11 000)	(132)
Southern Asia	(1 915)	...	(6 600)	(9 000)	(136)
Eastern Asia	(24 570)	...	(39 000)	(52 700)	(135)
Japan	(23 665)	...	(37 000)	(50 000)	(135)
Oceania	5 650	7 280	11 640	15 000	129
Subtotal	-	-	283 700	357 700	126
Africa	3150	...	6 300	...	-
East Africa	(270)	(400)	(580)	(860)	(148)
Western Europe	44 200	...	74 000...	...	...
Eastern Europe	26 100	...	44 000	...	...
U.S.S.R.	90 000	...	150 000	...	...
Mainland China	8 000	...	16 000	...	...
TOTAL	320 200	...	574 580	...	...

^aThe average shown for 1957-59 its actually 1956-59.
^bExcluding Mainland China. The forecasts for Japan and the Philippines have been revised upward from those shown in Timber trends and prospects in the Asia-Pacific region to alloy, for accelerated past and expected growth. The log equivalents for 1957-59 include an allow

ANNEX TABLE B. - PLYWOOD

Region	1957-1959			1970
	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption	Estimated consumption	Index base 1957-59 =100
	Thousand cubic meters (s)
North America	7 729	-572	8 301	16 500	200
Latin America	257a	-38	295	-	-
	-	-	540b	800	148
Europe	2 223	-131	2 345	-	-
U.S.S.R.	1227	+96	1131	2 900c	157
Near East	57	-3	60	-	-
Ear Eastd	1428	+438	990	1 900	194
Mainland Chinae	10	+4	6	-	-
Oceaniad	130	-7	137	170	123
Africa	163	+8	155	-	-
TOTAL	13 224	-	13 429	-	-

^aRecorded production 1956-1959.
^bEstimated consumption, 1956-1959, including veneer and unrecorded plywood.
^cBased on rate of growth in seven year plan to 1965.
^dThe estimates for 1975 in Timber trends and prospects in the Asia-Pacific region have been revised upward to allow for the rapid growth which has occurred since the base period of the study.
^eProduction estimated; trade derived from importing countries; consumption as residual.

+ = net exports;
- = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE C. - FIBREBOARD

Region	1957-1959			1970 Estimated consumption	Increase: index 1957-59 = 100
	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption
	Thousand metric tons
North America	1 768	+8	1 760	3 000	170
Canada	(224)	-	(219)	(400)	(183)
United States	(1542)	-	(1 540)	(2 600)	(169)
Latin America	72	-17	88	-	-
Europe	1 450	+147	1 303	2 210	170
Western	(1 282)	(+157)	(1 124)	-	-
Eastern	(168)	(-10)	(178)	-	-
U.S.S.R	123	-	123	-	-
Near East	14	+1	13	-	-
Far East	69	-27	97	-	-
Oceania	127	+1	126	-	-
Africa	80	+6	74	-	-
TOTAL	3 702	-	3 584	-	-

SOURCE: FAO, Yearbooks of forest products statistics. + = net exports; - = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE D. - PARTICLE BOARD 1957-1959

Region	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption
	Thousand metric tons
North America	225	-3	228
Canada	(19)	-	(19)
United States	(206)	-(3)	(209)
Latin America	34	-	34
Europe	546	-28	674
Western	(588)	(-25)	(613)
Eastern	(58)	(-3)	(61)
U.S.S.R.	52	-	52
Near East	19	-9	28
Far East	27	-1	28
Oceania	a	-2	2
Africa	41	+17	24
TOTAL	1 044	-	1 070

^aLess than 1,000 tons.

SOURCE: FAO, Yearbooks of forest products statistics.

+ = net exports;
- = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE E. - NEWSPRINT

Region	1957-1959			1970 Estimated consumption	Increase: index 1957-59 = 100
	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption
	Million metric tons
North America	7.33	+0.77	6.56	9.20	140
Latin America	0.10a	-0.52	0.62a	1.40	226
Europe	3.62	+0.18	3.44	6.39	186
Western	(3.36)	(+ 0.18)	(3.18)	(5.74)	(181)
Eastern	(0.26)	(0.00)	(0.26)	(0.65)	(250)
U.S.S.R.	0. 39	+0.06	0.33	1.23	324
Near East	0. 01	-0.03	0.04	0.09	225
Far East (incl. Mainland China)	0.78b	-0.19	0.97b	3.48	359
Oceania	0.16b	-0.17	0.33b	0.51	155
Africa	0.00	-0.13	0.13	0.26	200
TOTAL	12.39	-	12.42	22.55	182

^aAverage 1956-59: SOURCE ECLA/FAO, 1961.
^bAverage 1956-58: SOURCE ECAFE/FAO/BTAO, Conference paper, 1960; Other 1957-59 data - FAO, Yearbooks of forest products statistics.

+ = net exports;
- = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE F. - PRINTING AND WRITING PAPERS

Region	1957-1959			1970 Estimated consumption	Increase: index 1957-59 =100
	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption
	Million metric tons
North America	5.58	+ 0.07	5.51	7.58	138
Latin America	0.32a	-0.12	0.43a	1.00	233
Europe	4.16	+ 0.41	3.75	6.68	178
Western	(3.65)	(+ 0.37)	(3.28)	(5.75)	(175)
Eastern	(0. 50)	(+ 0.04)	(0.46)	(0.93)	(202)
U.S.S.R.	0.56	- 0.02	0.58	1.70	293
Near East	0. 03	- 0.02	0.05	0.07	140
Far East (incl. Mainland China)	1.37b	- 0.05	1.42b	4.53	319
Oceania	0. 07b	- 0.05	0.12b	0. 21	175
Africa	0.06	- 0. 07	0.13	0.22	169
TOTAL	12.10	-	11.96	21.99	184

^aAverage 1956-59: SOURCE: ECLA/FAO, 1961.
^BAverage 1956-58: SOURCE: ECAFE/FAO/BTAO, Conference Paper, 1960; other 1957-59 data-FAO, Yearbooks of forest products statistics

+ = net exports;
- = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE G. - OTHER PAPER AND PAPERBOARD

Region	1957-1959			1970 Estimated consumption	Increase: index 1957-59 100
	Production	Net trade	Apparent consumption
	Million metric tons
North America	21.76	+ 0.32	21.34	38.00	177
Latin America	1.09a	- 0.21	1.30a	3.00	231
Europe	11.25	+ 0.37	10.88	21.30	196
Western	(9.68)	(+ 0.38)	(9.30)	(17.90)	(192)
Eastern	(1.57)	(- 0.01)	(1.58)	(3.40)	(215)
U.S.S.R.	2.00	- 0.07	2.07	5.77	279
Near	0.05	- 0.10	0.15	0.22	147
Far East (incl. Mainland China)	2.46b	- 0.15	2.61b	9.46	362
Oceania	0.31 b	- 0.06	0.37b	0.72	195
Africa	0.21	- 0.18	0.39	0.70	179
TOTAL	39.17	-	39.20	79.17	201

^aAverage 1956-59: SOURCE: ECLA/FAO, 1961.
^bAverage 1956-58: SOURCE: ECAFE/FAO/BTAO, Conference Paper, 1960; other 1957-59 data - FAO, Yearbooks of forest products statistics

+ = net exports;
- = net imports.

ANNEX TABLE H. - TOTAL PAPER AND PAPERBOARD: RECENT CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS

Region	1957-1959	1970	Increase index: 1957-59= 100
	Thousand metric tons
North America	33 500	54 800	164
Canada	2 000	3 800	190
United States	31 500	51 000	162
Latin America	2 400a	5 400	225
Europe	18 040	34 380	191
Western Europe	(15 750)	(29 400)	(187)
EFTA	(6 870)	(11 750)	(171)
EEC	(8 360)	(16 580)	(580)
Other	(520)	(1 070)	(206)
Eastern Europe	(2 290)	(4 980)	(217)
U.S.S.R.	2 980	8 700	292
Near East	235	385	164
Asia Pacific	5 800a	18 900	326
Mainland China	(1 270)	(5 160)	(406)
Continental southeast Asia	(140)	(380)	(271)
Insular southeast Asia	(185)	(460)	(249)
India	(370)	(1 070)	(289)
Rest of southern Asia	(75)	(230)	(307)
Japan	(2 740)	(9 600)	(350)
Rest of eastern Asia	(190)	(515)	(271)
Oceania	(810)	(1 440)	(178)
Africa	645	1 170	181
TOTAL	63 600	123 700	194

^aAverage for 1956-59.

ANNEX TABLE I. - ESTIMATED PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF WOOD USED IN THE FOR SELECTED SUBREGIONS

Region	1958a	1970a	Index: 1958= 100
	Thousand cubic meters ®
North America	13 000	14 000	108
Canada	(1 500)	(1 500)	(100)
United States	(11 500)	(12 500)	(109)
Latin America	7 500	9 600	128
Asia Pacific	21 200	26 800	126
Continental southeast Asia	(4 300)	(5 700)	(133)
Insular southeast Asia	(5 600)	(7 300)	(130)
Southern Asia	(2 450)	(3 550)	(145)
Eastern Asia	(7 500)	(8 550)	(114)
Oceania	(1 350)	(1 700)	(126)
East Africa	1 400	2 200	157

^aInterpolated from forecasted growth rate for all but Latin America where quantities in 1958 column are 1956-59 averages and 1970 quantities are actual estimates.

ANNEX TABLE J. - FUELWOOD RECENT CONSUMPTION AND ESTIMATED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS

Region	1958a	1970a	Increase: index 1957-59=100
	Thousand cubic meters
North America	56 300	33 800	60
Canada	(7 600)	(5 800)	(76)
United States	(48 700)	(28 000)	(57)
Latin America	177 800	201 800	113
Asia Pacific	262 500	420 000	160
Continental southeast Asia	(39 000)	(46 000)	(118)
Insular southeast Asia	(97 000)	(110 000)	(113)
Southern Asia	(87 000)	(230 000)	(264b)
Eastern Asia	(31 500)	(28 000)	(89)
Oceania	(8 000)	(8 000)	(100)

^aInterpolated from the average growth rate from studios with earlier base periods and later forecast dates, except in the case of Latin America where 1968 data is 1956-58 average and 1970 is actual forecast.
^bThis increase makes a very substantial allowance for the replacement of dung by wood for fuel. Unless extreme steps are taken to provide the wood, actual consumption will fall far short of these forecast requirements.