PART 3: Findings

Relevance of wood energy

The present study confirmed the extreme relevance of wood energy in the eastern and central Africa sub-regions. In this context, it may be useful to recall that:

• in the ten countries covered by the present study the fraction of woodfuel production in total roundwood production at year 2000 ranged between 88 and 100 percent, with an average of 94 percent (FAOSTAT 2005, FAO) share;

• the contribution of woodfuels to total primary energy consumption in the countries of East Sahelian Africa, Central Africa and Tropical Southern Africa ranged from 75% to 86% (FAO 1999).

Level of analysis

The spatial resolution of biomass density maps produced in this study is very high, as it was based on national land cover maps developed at scales ranging between 1:100 000 and 1:200 000.

Concerning woodfuel demand and supply/demand balance, the analysis was done at 5 arc-minute grid cell level, which resulted in a geostatistical database composed by 98 592 units.

In addition, cell-level parameters were aggregated at sub-national level for a total of 1172 sub-national administrative units.

Scope of cell-level balance.

The thematic geostatistical layers produced in the study represent the beginning rather than the conclusion of an analytical process. They may, and hopefully will, support further level of analysis at both lower and higher geographical levels. At lower levels, i.e. national and sub-national, they can serve as basis of WISDOM analyses aimed at supporting and guiding energy and forestry policies. At higher levels, i.e. regional and global, they can contribute and provide qualified reference to regional and global wood energy mapping.

Wood energy systems, intended as the sequence of actions and elements that comprise the production, distribution and consumption of woodfuels, are complex and site-specific. They may, or may not, involve trade aspects; similarly, and to some extent consequently, woodfuels may be transported far from their production sites or they may be gathered and consumed locally; consumption patterns may change rapidly resulting from the availability of other fuels such as gas, kerosene, agricultural residues or cow dung in response to varying market conditions and/or levels of accessibility to wood resources.

Such fluid conditions cannot be predicted and modelled due to inadequate information on the driving variables and to the inherent complexity of the systems. It is therefore essential to understand the scope and limitations of the analysis carried out. In this respect, the following aspects should be highlighted:

• Reference data, such as the total woodfuel consumption for a given country and the urban/rural consumption ratios, are estimates rather than objective measurements. The estimation processes behind such estimates are poorly documented or, more often, totally unknown (Drigo 2005). This means that the consumption maps produced in this study are “best approximations” to be used for the definition of priority zoning rather than for quantitative calculations.

• The 5 arc-minute cells (9.2 x 9.2 km at the Equator; 8.2 x 8.9 km at 30° latitude) used as spatial reference for the integration of supply and demand parameters and balance calculation are meaningful only in case of locally constrained production/consumption patterns. The cell-level balance does not account for imported woodfuels that may, in fact, be transported from long distances, especially in case of charcoal. However, the 5 arc-minute cells are consistent with the gathering horizon of rural consumers that cannot afford marketed woodfuels or that live far from market centres.

Subsistence energy in a local supply/demand context

Subsistence energy may be defined as the amount of energy needed to guarantee basic needs (drinking water, heat) and nutrition (proper food preparation) in the household¹¹.

For many of the poor households in Africa subsistence energy is not guaranteed. For these households, which may be found in rural areas but also around urban centres, a deficit situation (demand higher than local supply capacity) has a direct impact the subsistence energy level necessary to cover essential uses.

Unlike other comparatively richer segments of the community that can afford to purchase fuelwood and charcoal at market prices, poor households depend strongly on locally accessible woody biomass for subsistence energy.

The effect of a deficit situation may lead to:

• a shift towards other fuels, that in case of poor people would inevitably mean agricultural residues and cow dung, with consequent impoverishment of soil nutrients and productivity;

• a diversion of part of the financial resources previously devoted to essential items as food and medicines towards the acquisition of commercial fuels, a household expense previously resolved by self-gathering;

• a lower energy input affecting the basic services that energy provides, such as boiling water cooking and heating, with negative impact on health and nutrition of poor rural and suburban households (Box 1);

• an unsustainable pressure on the accessible sources of woody biomass.

The tight spatial relation that links poor households’ needs for woody biomass to satisfy subsistence energy demand and wood resources justify the level of analysis of supply and demand at 5 arc-minute cell size, which is assumed represent an area that could be covered on foot to collect fuelwood. In fact, it may be assumed that within the approximately 9 x 9 km cell a randomly located consumer would have to cover a maximum of 4.5 km (some 2-3 on average, depending on the area wooded) to find woody biomass, which is in line with the distance covered on average by fuelwood gatherers in the region (Walther and Herlocker, 1983; McPeak, 2003).

Main deficit areas and affected populations

The percentages of rural populations living in the various balance categories are shown in Table 3. While it is obvious and expected that densely populated areas live under high deficit conditions, since the balance is calculated within the 5 minute cells, it is rather striking that over 41% of rural populations face marked deficit conditions (medium-high to high deficit). In absolute numbers this corresponds to some 59.2 million people living a marked deficit condition (26.6 million people in high deficit and 32.6 in medium-high deficit).

In countries like Burundi, Egypt and Rwanda virtually the entire population face deficit conditions.

Table 3
Rural populations living under different balance categories

The areas that present a more or less marked deficit in the local demand/supply balance covers 12.5 percent of the cumulative 10 countries’ area. The occurrence and distribution of deficit areas within the countries is very heterogeneous, as shown in Table 4. There are countries literally dominated by deficit areas, such as Burundi and Rwanda, others that present important deficit areas, such as Eritrea, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya and Sudan, and others that present minor deficit areas, such as Egypt, Somalia and D.R. Congo.

Table 4
Areas under different balance categories by country

Note: The values represent percent of countries’ land area by balance conditions as derived from the analysis of woodfuel consumption and potential sustainable supply within 5 arc-minute cells.

The most detailed spatial distribution of the various balance categories can be observed in Figure 29 (regional overview) and in Figures 30 to 38 (individual country maps) in the previous section.

Cell-values were also aggregated in order to identify the average balance conditions (always calculated at cell level) of sub-national administrative units. The results of this aggregation are shown in Figures 39 and 40 in the previous section. The sub national units presenting more pronounced deficit conditions are listed, for each country, in Annex 4.

National quantitative balances between the estimated total consumption and the fraction of the total national increment of woody biomass available for energy use (assumed at 94% in these countries) have little meaning because they hide important local variations but also because the reliability of quantitative estimates is rather limited.

Nonetheless, it is worth noting that countries such as Egypt, Burundi, Rwanda and Eritrea appear to consume an amount of woody biomass considerably higher than the estimated annual sustainable increment of their entire territories. This could be interpreted in several ways and, at least in part, it may be due to data inconsistencies (consumption figures may be overestimated and/or increment figures underestimated; import of woodfuels from neighbouring countries may be higher than recorded, as appears likely for Egypt).

It is however legitimate to believe that these pronounced deficit conditions may imply:

(i) the use of woodfuels derived from land clearings for conversions to agriculture and shifting cultivations that may temporarily release large amounts of wood and/or

(ii) a non sustainable pressure on more accessible natural formations with leading to forest degradation as is the case for Burundi, Rwanda and probably Eritrea.

(iii) a widespread shift to lower grade biomass fuels such as straw, residues and cow dung. These conditions pose a further burden on the environment, on agricultural productivity and on the poorest segments of the society who depend on these resources.

The research conducted in the last decade, including comprehensive field studies and projects have shown that woodfuel demand and supply patterns are very site specific (Leach & Mearns, 1988; Arnold et al., 2003). Recognizing the site specificity of woodfuel use associated impacts has shifted the early thinking of a general fuelwood crisis to the understanding that critical areas vary from area to area (Arnold et al., 2003; Mahapatra & Mitchell, 1999; RWEDP, 1997) and that there are mechanisms of adaptation that divert the pressure on wood resources, at least for larger surfaces.

Contribution to forestry and energy policy formulation

In spite the paramount relevance of wood energy in both forestry and energy sectors in all sub-Saharan countries, where woodfuels represent the main forest product as well as the main sources of energy, the role played by wood energy at high policy level remains marginal. One of the reasons frequently pointed out for such neglect is the absence of adequate information and the difficulty to frame this complex and site-specific issue in a coherent national context.

With respect to forestry and energy planning at national level, the information produced in this study still lacks details on physical and accessibility issues associated with wood resources as well as legal issues and other specific national policy aspects. Nonetheless, this information represents a first step in this direction and allows already segmenting the countries into zones characterized by different biomass stocking, consumption levels and local supply/demand balance conditions.

For forestry services, the definition of deficit and surplus areas helps in identifying priority zones where:

• woodfuel production may represent a viable forest management opportunity and a be a tool for sustainable rural development;

• exploitation goes far beyond the regenerating capacity of natural formations, calling for alternative solutions to be found in collaboration with energy and agriculture stakeholders and institutions.

For energy agencies, wood energy maps can support the formulation of policies and strategies. Promotion of modern wood and bio-energy systems or, conversely, subsidizing alternative fuels could be and implemented in synergy with forestry and agricultural sectors.

A new dimension to the process of mapping extreme poverty

As mentioned before the cell-level balance between the potential sustainable production of woody biomass and the consumption of woodfuels is meaningful mainly for the fraction of the consumers that depend on fuelwood gathering within accessible walking distance.

In view of its implication on poor households’ subsistence energy supply, the definition of deficit and surplus areas within 5 arc minute cells acquires particular relevance in the context of mapping poverty and extreme poverty, a key item in the struggle to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 (eradicate extreme poverty and hunger) and MDG 7 (ensure environmental sustainability).

Many approaches exist to poverty mapping (Davis, 2003), all predominantly based on econometric approaches combining census and survey data and several spatial modelling methods working at household level (Lanjouw, 1998; Hentschel et al.,2000; Elbers et al., 2001; and Deichmann, 1999) or at community level (Bigman et al., 2000). However, a common characteristic to poverty mapping is that geographical components (location characteristics) and environmental data are not taken into account (Pertucci, Salvati and Seghieri, 2003).

Energy-related indicators are limited to access to electricity or other “conventional” energy sources for which formal statistics exist. From an energy perspective this inevitably leads to grouping all populations living outside the grids into a single category, while overlooking the access situation for “traditional” energy sources that strongly influence living conditions of poor households and the sustainability of the surrounding environment.

As pointed out by Pertucci et al., “Environmental degradation contributes to poverty through worsened health and by constraining the productivity of those resources on which the poor rely. Moreover, poverty restricts the poor to acting in ways that harm the environment. Poverty is often concentrated in environmentally fragile ecological zones where communities suffer from and contribute to different kinds of environmental degradation”

In combination with econometric data and in addition to other indicators relevant to poverty and food insecurity (Box 2), the deficit areas identified in the present study provide important indicators for the locations where poor households are likely to face serious difficulties in acquiring minimum subsistence energy levels and where the negative effects discussed above may occur. Specifically, the identification of woodfuel deficit areas may contribute directly and effectively to determining and qualifying vulnerability levels in both poverty and food security mapping

¹¹ The term subsistence energy is used by the International Commission of Agricultural Engineering (CIGR) - Section IV: Rural Electricity and other Energy Sources (Ramdani, Kamaruddin, et al., CIGR).