Philip Thresher
PHILIP THRESHER IS an economist at the FAO Investment Centre in Rome.
LION IN THE PRIME OF LIFE high value
Since 1967, visits to Amboseli National Park have increased at a steady 10 to 25 percent per year. In terms of absolute numbers, such high incremental rates of increase can hardly continue beyond the next two or three years. By 1976 the number of annual visits had reached 97000 of which 60000 were made by foreigners, 25000 by Kenyans and 12000 by Kenyans in a commercial or service capacity, such as drivers and guides. This model, in helping to justify World Bank assistance to a $6.5 million livestock management and development plan, indicated that by 1993 the park may approach a total of 297000 visits a year - 200000 by nonresidents, 57000 by residents, and 40000 by resident professionals.
Wesley Henry, a research associate of the Institute of Development Studies, University of Nairobi, who studied visitor behaviour in Amboseli for a doctoral thesis, determined that the amount of time spent by visitors specifically engaged in wildlife viewing averages four hours per vehicle per visit. Sixty percent (144 minutes) of the time is spent driving and 40 percent (96 minutes) stationary. Of the stationary time about 30 percent, or approximately 30 minutes, is spent looking at lions.
Preliminary sampling of field data revealed, surprisingly, that only 11 percent of the visitors want to see Mount Kilimanjaro. At the other end of the scale, 20 percent state they want to see "anything and everything." Only those visitors who were able to relate their specific expectations or "wants" to Amboseli were used in the following weighted response scale. Stated preferences are assumed to be directly proportional to willingness to spend time looking for particular animals.
The total time that visitors are prepared to spend looking for and then viewing lions is 70 minutes, or approximately 30 percent of the four hours devoted to wildlife viewing. Based on such information it was concluded that in Amboseli lions account far at least 30 percent of the total revenues generated by the wildlife viewing activity.
Tourism. There are approximately 60 lions in and around Amboseli National Park over a 580 square kilometre area, and most of the year there are 40 lions actually within the park. A stable population of 60 lions will have three to five maned lions, three to five sub-adult males, 25 to 30 females, and 22 to 27 juveniles and cubs (Schaller). A male lion will have grown an acceptable mane by the time it is four years old and can be expected to survive in good condition until it is about twelve.
Full-grown maned males are the principal viewing objective of visitors. Young cubs run a close second. Maned lions are actually seen by 25 percent of visitors and cubs by less than 10 percent because they are kept hidden in the shade and because off-road driving is prohibited. Statistically, those who do see a maned lion usually see two or more.
By using the computerized model and assuming a reasonable rate of discount of 10 percent per year, the present value of foreign exchange expended by nonresidents on visits to Amboseli during the 15-year period 1977-92 amounts to US $47760000. The lion's share (2.5 percent) is $1195000. Because a lion should be on view for a minimum of six to seven years, one individual lion will draw $515000 in foreign exchange receipts. That is the lion's value as a tourist resource for viewing. As a hunting or sport resource, the figure is $8500, which is the amount a nonresident hunter spends for a 21-day lion hunt. As a commercial resource, a lion's well-cured skin retails for between $960 and $1325.
Weighted response scale
|
Want to see |
Score (Maximum 10) |
Ratio to "all other" |
Estimated search allocation (Minutes) |
|
Lion |
8.6 |
2.40 |
40 |
|
Cheetah |
6.8 |
1.90 |
32 |
|
Elephant |
5.1 |
1.40 |
25 |
|
Rhino |
4.5 |
1.25 |
22 |
|
Leopard |
4.1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Giraffe |
1.8 |
0.50 |
8 |
|
All other |
3.6 |
1 |
17 |
1
Leopard is omitted because it is seen only once or twice a year.
Earning power. Landowners of the Amboseli, including the Kenyan Government as the owner of the park, receive about 12 percent of the total amount accrued from visitor expenditures. Landowner receipts are in the form of entry fees, accommodation and other concession fees. Landowner receipts, less the costs of developing and running the park over 15 years, have a present value of $3640000. Crediting 2.5 percent of this amount as the contribution of a maned lion, the present value of one such lion to landowners would be $91000. A maned lion which is hunted professionally and not on a ranch outside the park is worth $600 to the landowner. The owner would receive half this amount if he obtained and sold a dried, uncured, maned lion skin.
Aside from government-owned land, land title in the Amboseli ecosystem is held by a dozen or so group ranches, each formed as an association of individual ranchers. All told, there are a thousand ranchers with families averaging six to seven persons. If they were each to get a due share of landowner receipts when the park has been developed for its full visitor capacity, each family would receive $600 annually, or about twice its current annual cash income. The lion would account for $15 of this sum. Discounting the future annual values, one maned lion's present value to each family is close to $90; while from a lion legally shot a family could expect $10.
Cattle. Cattle-raising constitutes a customary use of rangeland and in Amboseli it can reasonably co-exist with the presence of wild animals. Disease transmission has been shown to be negligible, while total annual predation losses amount to less than a tenth of one percent of the existing cattle population. However, even assuming improved management over time, it would take a mixed herd of about 30000 zebu-type cattle to produce over 15 years the present cash value sum of $665000. Since the value to the national economy would be about 180 percent of this sum, or $1197000, this indicates that the present national value of one maned lion is comparable to 30000 cattle. Theoretically, under far more refined management than is now likely, the same sum could be produced by rotating 6400 steers, each weighing 240 kg, and selling them a year later when each weighed 320 kg. Therefore, one Amboseli maned lion has a present value to the national economy equivalent to 30000 zebu cattle or to 6400 steers turned over once a year. To put these figures in perspective, the reader should know that the 6000 Masai living in the Amboseli ecosystem are supported by 50000 cattle and 20000 sheep and goats.
The immediate implications for "managing" wild animals in general and lions in particular in an area such as the Amboseli ecosystem are staggering. Over 2000 jobs could be tied to wildlife viewing in Amboseli alone. The rural people need extra cash to avoid becoming an ever-increasing burden on "relief" subsidies, and the nation badly needs foreign exchange earnings to sustain higher living standards. Lions in this part of the world, seen in their role as a primary tourist attraction, are a renewable natural resource that needs to be looked after and taken very seriously. They provide a healthy income for both the rural people who share their territory and the nation's foreign exchange requirements.
Reference
This assumption is an extrapolation from SCHALLER, G.S. The Serengeti lion. University of Chicago Press, 1972.
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