4.1 Future production and exports
4.2 Marketing development needs
Estimates for future production of sea bass, sea bream, mullets and eels according to domestic or export destination, are presented in Table 6. These estimates, for the years 1987 and 1992, support a tentative assumption that the present production of sea bass and bream for export is about 40% of that marketed domestically. In five years time production for export may increase to about 80% of that destined for domestic consumption. Spain, Tunisia and Turkey could be the countries with the most significant increase in production for export. This increase in the availability of exportable quantities (in the order of 9 000-10 000 t per year), which would almost exclusively aim at the Italian market, would result in considerable pressure on present price levels and could lead to market collapse due to lack of coordination. It should be noted that the Italian production is expected to increase by about 4 300 t per year. Thus, available supplies on the Italian market could increase from about 5 000 t in 1987 to 19 000 t in 1992.
Table 3: Estimates of Current Aquaculture Production of Prime Species in the Mediterranean Region in 19851, 2
Country |
Production (t/year) |
Year of Estimate |
|||||||
Sea Bass |
Sea Bream |
Total Sea Bass and Sea Bream |
Mullets |
Eels |
|||||
Cyprus |
nil |
nil |
|
nil |
|
nil |
|
nil |
1985 |
Egypt |
? |
? |
|
1350 |
|
2100 |
|
560 |
1985 |
France |
150 |
25 |
|
175 |
|
240 |
|
380 |
1985 |
Greece |
I 22 |
I 10 |
I 32) |
432 |
I nil) |
1400 |
I? ) |
1000 |
1985 |
E? |
E? |
E 400) |
|
E 1400) |
|
E? ) |
|
|
|
Italy |
I 500 |
I 800 |
I 1300) |
2700 |
|
2000 |
I 2500) |
4000 |
1985 |
E 700 |
E 700 |
E 1400) |
|
|
|
E 1500) |
|
|
|
Portugal |
84 |
168 |
|
252 |
|
419 |
I 70) |
308 |
1986 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
E 238) |
|
|
|
Spain |
15 |
30 |
|
45 |
|
nil |
I 5 |
5 |
1985 |
Spain (Canaries) |
nil |
nil |
|
nil |
|
nil |
|
nil |
|
Tunisia |
I 30 |
I 20 |
I 50) |
140 |
I 10) |
260 |
I nil) |
70 |
1986 |
E 40 |
E 50 |
E 90) |
|
E 250) |
|
E 70) |
|
|
|
Turkey |
E 230 |
E 605 |
|
835 |
|
4589 |
E |
445 |
1982 |
Yugoslavia |
I 140 |
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
|
1986 |
Total |
|
|
|
6069 |
|
11008 |
|
6768 |
|
1 No figures are available for Albania, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Malta and Syria. Only partial figures are available for Yugoslavia. 1985 figures for Egypt were calculated at 70% of estimates for 1987. Breakdown between sea bass and sea bream is given where provided.2 I = Intensive
E = Extensive. Due to statistical problems, figures quoted for extensive aquaculture (lagoon culture) may, in some countries, include some production from lagoon fisheries.
Table 4: Forecast Aquaculture Production of Prime Species in the Mediterranean Region by 19921, 2
Country |
Production (t/year) |
Year of Estimate |
|||||||
Sea Bass |
Sea Bream |
Total Sea Bass and Sea Bream |
Mullets |
Eels |
|||||
Cyprus |
120 |
80 |
|
200 |
|
nil |
|
nil |
1992 |
Egypt |
? |
? |
|
2600 |
|
4000 |
|
1150 |
1992 |
France |
? |
? |
|
1000 |
|
240 |
|
380 |
1992 |
Greece3 |
I (160) |
I (> 500) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1991 |
|
|
I 2000) |
2555 |
I nil) |
1940 |
I 300) |
1690 |
|
|
|
|
E 555) |
|
E 1940) |
|
E 1390) |
|
|
|
Italy |
2000 |
5000 |
|
7000 |
|
9000 |
|
6000 |
1990 |
Morocco |
? |
9 |
|
1000 |
|
? |
|
9 |
1988 |
Portugal |
? |
? |
|
1000 |
|
500 |
I 150) |
600 |
1992 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
E 450) |
|
|
|
Spain |
? |
? |
|
3500 |
|
- |
|
5 |
1992 |
Spain (Canaries) |
? |
? |
|
1000 |
|
- |
|
- |
1992 |
Tunisia |
I 3000 |
I 400 |
I 3400) |
3900 |
I 600) |
1100 |
I nil) |
300 |
1991 |
E 200 |
E 300 |
E 500) |
|
E 500) |
|
E 300) |
|
|
|
Turkey |
? |
? |
|
3000 |
|
3600 |
|
600 |
1992 |
Yugoslavia |
? |
? |
|
500 |
|
N/A |
|
N/A |
1992 |
Total |
|
|
27255 |
20380 |
10725 |
|
1 No figures are available for Albania, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Malta and Syria. Only partial figures are available for Yugoslavia.2 I = Intensive
E = Extensive. Due to statistical problems, figures quoted for extensive aquaculture (lagoon culture) may, in some countries, include some production from lagoon fisheries.3 Two estimates were given for intensive production of sea bass and sea bream.
The more optimistic has been quoted as the total sea bass/bream figure (2 000 tons).
Table 5: Aquaculture Production Estimated as a Proportion of Total Catch of the Prime Mediterranean Species (t/year)1
Country |
Sea Bass and Sea Bream |
Mullets |
Eels |
Year of Estimate |
||||||
Total |
Aquaculture |
(%) |
Total |
Aquaculture |
(%) |
Total |
Aquaculture |
(%) |
||
Cyprus |
0.64 |
|
(0) |
8.2 |
- |
(0) |
- |
- |
(0) |
1984 |
France |
5000 |
175 |
(4) |
5000 |
240 |
(5) |
1700 |
380 |
(22) |
1986/85 |
Greece |
515 |
280 |
(54) |
3101 |
1337 |
(43) |
790 |
776 |
(98) |
1984 |
Italy |
4100 |
2700 |
(66) |
6500 |
2000 |
(31) |
4000 |
4000 |
(100) |
1985 |
Portugal |
750 |
252 |
(34) |
723 |
419 |
(58) |
323 |
308 |
(95) |
1985/86 |
Spain |
1400 |
45 |
(3) |
1000 |
- |
(nil) |
700 |
5 |
(1) |
1985 |
Tunisia |
740 |
140 |
(19) |
1760 |
260 |
(15) |
120 |
70 |
(58) |
1986 |
Turkey |
2263 |
835 |
(37) |
2748 |
4589 |
(167) |
583 |
445 |
(76) |
1985/82 |
1 Where two dates have been given, the first refers to total catch data and the second to aquaculture data. Countries where incomplete estimates are available have been omitted.
Table 6: Estimates of Market Supplies of Selected Cultured Prime Species in certain Mediterranean countries (t)
(a) Sea bass and sea bream
Country |
Domestic Market |
Export Market |
||||
1987 |
1992 |
Increase |
1987 |
1992 |
Increase |
|
Cyprus |
5 |
200 |
195 |
- |
- |
- |
Egypt |
1630 |
2000 |
370 |
300 |
600 |
300 |
France |
- |
500 |
500 |
200 |
500 |
300 |
Greece |
700 |
1500 |
800 |
- |
-1 |
- |
Italy |
2700 |
7000 |
4300 |
- |
- |
- |
Morocco |
|
|
|
- |
1000 |
1000 |
Portugal |
33 |
225 |
192 |
217 |
775 |
558 |
Spain |
23 |
960 |
937 |
92 |
3840 |
3748 |
Tunisia |
117 |
1303 |
1186 |
23 |
2597 |
2574 |
Turkey |
700 |
800 |
100 |
1500 |
2200 |
700 |
Yugoslavia |
- |
- |
- |
140 |
500 |
360 |
Total |
5908 |
14488 |
8580 |
2472 |
12012 |
9540 |
1 will depend on relative price developments on domestic versus international markets
(b) Mullets
Country |
Domestic Market |
Export Market |
||||
1987 |
1992 Increase |
1987 |
1992 |
Increase |
||
Cyprus |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Egypt |
3000 |
4000 |
1000 |
- |
- |
- |
France |
240 |
240 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Greece |
1400 |
1800 |
400 |
- |
- |
- |
Italy |
2000 |
9000 |
7000 |
- |
- |
- |
Portugal |
419 |
500 |
81 |
- |
- |
- |
Spain |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Tunisia |
260 |
1100 |
840 |
- |
- |
- |
Turkey |
600 |
1000 |
400 |
2900 |
2600 |
(-) 300 |
Total |
7919 |
17640 |
9721 |
2900 |
2600 |
(-) 300 |
(c) Eel
Country |
Domestic Market |
Export Market |
||||
1987 |
1992 |
Increase |
1987 |
1992 |
Increase |
|
Cyprus |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Egypt |
500 |
550 |
50 |
300 |
600 |
300 |
France |
80 |
80 |
- |
300 |
300 |
- |
Greece |
50 |
50 |
- |
850 |
1450 |
600 |
Italy |
3000 |
4000 |
1000 |
1000 |
2000 |
1000 |
Portugal |
147 |
200 |
53 |
85 |
300 |
215 |
Spain |
5 |
100 |
95 |
- |
100 |
100 |
Tunisia |
6 |
43 |
37 |
64 |
257 |
193 |
Turkey |
- |
- |
- |
583 |
600 |
17 |
Total |
3788 |
5023 |
1235 |
3182 |
5607 |
2425 |
Source: Estimates based on the personal opinion of private and government personnel associated with aquaculture operations in Mediterranean countries. Inconsistencies between the figures presented here and the estimates provided in Tables 3 and 4 reflect possible margins of error.
The only country identified which exports mullet from (extensive) aquaculture production is Turkey. It is estimated that the amount exported will decrease from 2 900 t (1987) to 2 600 t (1992). The workshop participants expect a doubling in cultured mullet for domestic markets, mostly due to anticipated substantial increases in Italian production, but no particular marketing problems are foreseen, at least not on an international scale.
The production increase of cultured eel for domestic markets is rather modest, except in Italy, where an increase of 1 000 t per year was forecast between 1987 and 1992. Total increase expected in all other countries is only 235 t per year. Production of eel for export on the other hand, is expected to experience a more pronounced growth of about 2 400 t, an increase of about 75% above present eel production for export. Italy, Greece, Egypt, Portugal and Tunisia are the countries principally responsible for these additional quantities becoming available for the markets in the Netherlands and Federal Republic of Germany. The group agreed that these markets should be able to absorb these additional quantities but it would be desirable to watch market developments closely, in particular competing production.
In summary, the consensus was that no marketing or trade problems were to be expected with mullet; that Mediterranean producers should monitor developments in export markets for eel, and that marketing and trade could become critical for the future viability of sea bass and sea bream culture.
The markets for eel show very specific product requirements. The opinion was expressed that, in the future, consumption of smoked eel may increase at the expense of fresh consumption, but total demand for eel may not grow as fast as production. Market developments should therefore be monitored, particularly in Denmark, Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands. The feasibility of promoting preserved eel products (smoked, marinated) should be investigated if necessary.
There was considerable discussion regarding market expectations for sea bass and sea bream. Reference was made to salmon particularly as a demonstration of the potential advantages of duly recognizing marketing requirements, and of the dangers of marketing sea bass and sea bream in an erratic and uncoordinated way. Examples of price falls for sea bream of 50%, due to a minor over-supply and the market situation for fresh Norwegian farmed salmon in Paris in November 1986, were noted. It was strongly advocated that every effort should be made to push farmed sea bream into the present primary position of salmon in the expensive restaurant trade. The idea behind this is the promotion of a typically Mediterranean product, which carries the positive associations of summer and recreation, and which is already appreciated in Italy and France. Table 7 gives a summary of survey results referring to servings of fish dishes in 70 high class restaurants on the French Mediterranean coast, and showed that choice of sea bass increases with increased menu price (as do salmon and sole but to a lesser extent).
1 Small quantities are also said to be exported by France
Table 7: Summary of a Survey of Seventy High-Class Restaurants on the French Mediterranean Coast
Data |
Total Sample |
Sea Bass Menu Price about F.F. 200 (US$ 30.4) |
Sea Bass Menu Price about F.F. 280 (US$ 42.5) |
|
Total menus served |
2174400 |
1661500 |
1090500 |
|
|
of which fish menus |
1296750 |
996780 |
635543 |
of which sea-bass menus |
184072 |
61348 |
43688 |
|
Total quantity of fish served (kg) |
462366 |
348873 |
222440 |
|
Total quantity of sea-bass served (kg) |
74353 |
61348 |
43688 |
|
Percentage menu penetration* |
||||
Angler fish |
10% |
10% |
3% |
|
Salmon |
21% |
19% |
22% |
|
Sole |
19% |
17% |
21% |
|
Gilthead sea-bream |
16% |
13% |
6% |
|
Turbot John Dory |
11% |
12% |
11% |
|
Diverse Mediterranean species |
6% |
8% |
7% |
|
Sea-bass |
17% |
22% |
29% |
|
Average number of reference fish |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
Number of restaurants |
70 |
46 |
26 |
|
Average menu price |
246 |
304 |
364 |
|
* Rounded figures do not necessarily add to 100% |
Source: Felter, 1986.
In addition the large number of product markets and prices, related to the variations between sea bream varieties of different geographical origin, was mentioned as making the market (which actually consisted of a number of small markets) rigid and inflexible. However, there were also examples of hitherto unknown species such as Argentinian besugo replacing sea bream (at US$ 8.00-9.00/kg, airfreighted fresh on ice from Mar del Plata to Milan), possibly at a level of 15 t per month.
The requirements of the supermarket trade in respect of uniformity of sizes and standardization of packs were highlighted as well as the advantage of portion size compared with off-sized and over-sized fish for the restaurant trade.