Introduction
Demographic and Economic Background
Status and Trends of Forest Products Consumption, Production and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region
Fuelwood and charcoal
Industrial roundwood
Sawnwood
Wood-based panels
Paper and paperboard
Price Developments
This outlook study of the Asia-Pacific forest sector provides quantitative information on historical trends and forecasts of forest products consumption, production and trade in and between the Asia-Pacific region and its trading partners.
The main objective of the study is to analyze the status and trends (till the year 2010) of forest products markets in the countries and regions of the Asia-Pacific and related parts of the world, and to propose a methodology for projecting developments in international trade flows of forest products with special reference to countries in the region.
This summary highlights the main findings of the Asia-Pacific forest products outlook study. It covers current status as well as trends. Forecasts are based on assumptions and constraints that can be changed. The data and computer model should enable FAO staff and others to work with different assumptions and thus make their own forecasts.
The forecasts are based on a market equilibrium model. The method insures that the quantity and price forecasts are fully consistent. For each country and commodity, supply (domestic production plus imports) is equal to demand (final consumption, plus input in other processes, plus exports). Imports and exports, by country and destination are balanced, within the Asia-Pacific region and between Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. Furthermore, the price forecasts for each commodity are such that they clear markets: at those prices, demands are equal to supplies in each country. The availability of price forecasts as well as quantities should be of great value for policy making and project evaluation.
The total population of the Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than half of the world's. It has grown from 1.6 billion to 3 billion between 1952 and 1992. China is the most populous country in the region, with nearly 1.2 billion people in 1992, followed by India with 884 million, Indonesia with 184 million, Japan with 124 million, Pakistan with 119 million and Bangladesh with 114 million. While the population of the Asia-Pacific has grown at the same rate as other regions of the world, China's population growth has been quite low since the 1970s, due to the strictly enforced government population control policy.
The Asia-Pacific remarkable economic growth has improved its standard of living significantly. Real per capita GNP grew slowly until the early 1980s. Since then, growth has accelerated. The region's real per capita GNP tripled between 1962 and 1992, from $438 to $1,310, while the world average grew by 75%, from $1,688 to $2,956.
During the 1980s and early 1990s, the economic development in the Asia-Pacific region was characterized by a sharp acceleration of China's economy, significant growth in newly industrializing economies. (Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea and Singapore) and good progress in the transitional economies of Asia. The developing countries' strong economic performance has been helped by sustained domestic demand and export growth as well as by the favourable impact of policy reforms adopted in recent years. Consumer demand remained strong because of significant gains in disposable incomes during recent years. Investment also has grown strongly in many developing countries, reflecting a rapid rise in private investment and in public spending on infrastructure.
Over the last ten to fifteen years, a number of Asia-Pacific countries, including China, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar and Viet Nam, have been implementing economic reforms, shifting from centrally planned, state-directed regimes to more decentralized, market-oriented economic systems. In some respects, the liberalization of these transitional economies in the Asia-Pacific is parallel to the changes taking place in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Many similar issues have to be faced in the reform process, including the design of macro-economic instruments, and the choice of the organization of enterprises. However, in many respects the Asia-Pacific experience is different, because of its long distinct cultures.
As shown in Table 3, the remarkable economic vigour of the Asian-Pacific region continued to be evident in 1994, with a steady growth rate of 7.5% to 8% per year. In this respect developing Asia continued to outperform by a wide margin both other developing regions (4.9%) and industrial countries (2.8%). These growth rate differences may, however, narrow over the next few years, as the developing countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe as well as the industrial countries are set to improve economic growth performance. But, the fastest growing economies are still likely to be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific. The top developing countries expected to have fastest growth in 1995 were all in the Asia-Pacific region: China, Viet Nam, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. The forecast growth rates for those countries ranged from 10 to 6% (United Nations 1995).
Table 3. Growth rate of real GNP (percent per year), 1988-1996.
|
|
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 | |
|
World |
4.1 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.3 | |
|
Industrialized Countries |
4.5 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.0 | |
|
|
United States |
4.4 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
-1.2 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
|
Japan |
5.7 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
|
|
Germany |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
-1.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
|
Developing Countries |
4.6 |
3.6 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.9 | |
|
|
Africa |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
|
|
Asia |
9.3 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
7.5 |
7.9 |
8.2 |
7.6 |
7.4 |
|
|
Latin America |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
-0.9 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
|
|
Middle East and Europe |
2.2 |
3.7 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
7.0 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
|
Countries in Transition |
1.8 |
1.5 |
-4.9 |
-9.7 |
-15.5 |
-9.7 |
-9.1 |
-2.6 |
3.0 | |
Source: Asian Development Outlook (Asian Development Bank 1988-1995). Shaded figures are forecasts.
The forest sector in the Asia-Pacific region has expanded greatly during the last three decades, and overall trends show a rising production, domestic consumption and trade. As in other parts of the world, the major measurable factors affecting consumption of forest products in the region are population growth and macroeconomic growth, i.e. GNP. However, many other influences are relevant, though hard to measure: level of residential investment, technical and economic competitiveness of sawnwood and panels in the building sector, development in electronic media, competitiveness of paper and paperboard for packaging, etc.
Total consumption of roundwood in the Asia-Pacific has nearly doubled between 1962 and 1992, from 593 million m3 to 1,161 million m3. The forecasts show that the Asia-Pacific demand for forest products will continue to rise, as rapidly growing economies are concentrated in the region. The total roundwood consumption will reach 1,228 million m3 by the year 2000 and 1,353 million by the year 2010, an increase of 20%, from the 1992's level. The Asia-Pacific region's share of world's total consumption is projected to increase from 33% in 1992 to 35% by the year 2010.
Coupled with the rising consumption, production of roundwood also increased from 576 million m3 to 1.100 million m3 between 1962 and 1992, and is expected to reach 1,179 million m3 by the year 2000 and 1,300 million by 2010. The region's share of world's total production is forecast to rise from 32% to 33%, between 1992 and 2010.
International trade in forest products has been and will continue to be an important component in many countries' forest products demand/supply balance, whether they be exporters, importers or, as in many cases, both. In the Asia-Pacific region, the majority of countries import more than they export. But there are a number of major international exporters of tropical timber products.
As seen in Part I, the Asia-Pacific region is a net importer of all forest products except non-coniferous sawnwood and plywood. In 1992, the total imports of solid wood products amounted to 63.4 million m3, accounting for nearly 8% of total consumption, while imports of pulp and paper products totalled 14.8 million metric tons, about 16% of regional consumption. Among all countries, Japan has been the dominant importer of forest products, mostly industrial roundwood, for decades. In 1992, Japan imported 14.5 million cubic meters of logs and 15.5 million cubic meters of chips, particles and wood residues from countries outside the Asia-pacific, i.e. 64% and 94% of total regional imports, respectively. By the year 2010, Japan will remain the leading importer of industrial roundwood in the region with 84 million cubic meters or 80% of the region's total, even though its domestic production is projected to increase 13% between 1992 and 2010.
While the region's exports of forest products to other countries or regions have been small, the Asia-Pacific region has been the world's largest exporter of plywood, led by Indonesia with 8.6 million cubic meters in 1992, which accounted for more than the total imports of countries outside the Asia-Pacific region. The forecasts for 2010 show that Indonesia may still be the largest exporter with 10 million cubic meters.
Historical trends
Fuelwood and charcoal has been and will still be the dominant use of wood in the developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region. During the last three decades, consumption of fuelwood and charcoal has shown sustained increases, mainly as a consequence of population growth. The region's total consumption increased 83% from 460 million cubic meters in 1962 to 841 million cubic meters in 1992.
Outlook
The total Asia-Pacific consumption is projected to be 930 million cubic meters by the year 2010, a 11% increase over the 1992's level. The top three consuming countries will still be India (282 million cubic meters), China (223 million) and Indonesia (184 million), because of the size of their population (Table 4).
Table 4. Fuelwood and charcoal consumption (1000 m3).
|
Country |
1962 |
1992 |
2010 |
|
Australia |
3394 |
2974 |
1720 |
|
China |
108181 |
203765 |
222905 |
|
Hong Kong |
475 |
289 |
76 |
|
India |
135637 |
257789 |
282003 |
|
Indonesia |
76689 |
145455 |
184411 |
|
Japan |
13733 |
856 |
201 |
|
Korea Rep |
10543 |
4491 |
4913 |
|
Malaysia |
4621 |
9029 |
11916 |
|
Myanmar |
9674 |
18632 |
22859 |
|
New Zealand |
510 |
50 |
27 |
|
Papua New Guinea |
3550 |
5533 |
5941 |
|
Philippines |
15645 |
35035 |
41350 |
|
Singapore |
0 |
|
|
|
Solomon Islands |
59 |
138 |
145 |
|
Thailand |
17101 |
34859 |
44503 |
|
Rest of the Asia-Pacific |
59711 |
122256 |
107421 |
|
Asia Pacific |
459523 |
841151 |
930388 |
|
Canada |
6477 |
6867 |
4264 |
|
Chile |
4034 |
7999 |
9907 |
|
European Union |
54878 |
36845 |
23988 |
|
Russia |
97000 |
81051 |
81977 |
|
United States |
32963 |
93246 |
58531 |
|
Rest of the World |
389849 |
806171 |
943514 |
|
World |
1044724 |
1873330 |
2052569 |
|
Share |
44% |
45% |
45% |
In Japan, New Zealand, Australia and Hong Kong, income increase has had a negative effect on fuelwood and charcoal demand, as the regions shifted their energy sources from fuelwood and charcoal to fossil fuels and electricity. This trends is likely to continue, and the consumption of fuelwood and charcoal in Japan is expected to decrease from 856 to 201 million cubic meters, by the year 2010.
As in the past, most countries in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to be largely self-sufficient in fuelwood and charcoal, and imports and exports will be negligible.
Historical trends
During the last three decades, as a consequence of moderate growth in population and rapid growth in the economy, consumption of industrial roundwood in the Asia-Pacific region has shown sustained increases. The total consumption was 320 million m3 in 1992, about one-fourth of the world's total (Table 5). Many countries showed steady and strong growth, while some countries had slightly declining trends in the past thirty years (Table 5).
Table 5. Industrial roundwood production, imports, exports and consumption (1000 m3).
The region production of industrial roundwood was 288 Mm3 in 1992, 18% of the world's total. The largest producers were China with 93 million m3, Malaysia with 45, Indonesia with 39, Japan with 28, and India with 25 million m3. Of these countries, Indonesia and Malaysia registered the highest growth in production, while Japan's production has gradually declined since the 1970s. Viet Nam's production grew fast since the end of the war in 1975, and peaked at 5.4 million m3 in 1987. Oceania countries, led by Australia and New Zealand, also saw significant increases in production in the 1980s. In contrast to other countries, Philippines' production of industrial roundwood has steadily declined from 13 million m' in 1968 to 3.6 million m3 in 1992, due mainly to the serious depletion of forests.
The Asia-Pacific region imported 68 million m in 1992, over 60% of the world's total imports. The imports expanded very fast until the late 1970s and peaked at 80 million m3 in 1979 when Indonesia and Malaysia imposed the bans on log exports.
The largest importers in the region have been Japan with 47 million m3 in 1992, the Republic of Korea with 10 million m3, and China with 6 million m3. Japan is also the world's leading importer of industrial roundwood. Its industrial roundwood imports accounted for more than 63% of domestic consumption in 1992, compared with 20% in 1962, 53% in 1972 and 57% in 1982.
The region exported 35 million m of industrial roundwood in 1992, about 30% of the world's total. Exports increased during the 1960s and 1970s until Indonesia restricted log exports in 1980 and Malaysia in 1985. In the 1980s, Malaysia surpassed Indonesia to become the world's leading exporter of industrial roundwood, with 18 million m3 in 1992.
More than 51% of the Asia-Pacific imports came from other regions. Its exports went mostly to countries in the same region, primarily to Japan. Exports to other regions accounted for less than 1 % of the total. The top three importers in 1992 were Japan with 25 million m3, the Republic of Korea with 10 million and China with 5 million. The major suppliers to the region were the United States with 13 million m3, Russia with 5 million, and Chile and Canada with 1 million. The total imports from these countries represented more than 90 % of all imports from outside the Asia-Pacific region.
Outlook
Over the next two decades, consumption of industrial roundwood in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to rise from 320 million m in 1992 to 365 million in 2000 and 422 million in 2010. This represents an annual increase of 2% between 1993 and 2000 and 1.5% for the 2000-2010 period, keeping the same rate of 1.8% growth for the 1982-92 period and lower than the 3.0% growth during the period of 1962-92. The Asia-Pacific share of the world total will rise from 20% in 1992 to 22% in the year 2000 and 23% in 2010, reflecting faster growth in consumption than the world average in the next two decades.
Most countries within the region are expected to increase their domestic consumption of industrial roundwood. China, Japan and Indonesia will remain the top three consumers. China's consumption will increase from 99 million m3 in 1992 to 122 million in the year 2010. Consumption of industrial roundwood in Japan is projected to rise nearly 53% between 1992 and 2010, from 75 million m3 to 115 million. The increase in consumption will most likely occur in the wood-based panels and paper and paperboard sectors. Like China, Indonesia will also experience faster growth, and increase its consumption much by the year 2010. Malaysia and India will also become important consumers of industrial roundwood.
To meet the increasing requirements, production in the Asia-Pacific region will rise, from 288 million m in 1992 to 368 million in 2010. The region's world share will be up slightly from 18% in 1992 to 19% in the year 2000 and 20% in 2010. Among all countries, China will remain the largest producer of industrial roundwood in the region by the year 2010. China is expected to be largely self-sufficient in wood supply, and production is forecast to increase from 93 million m3 to 121 million in 2010. Over the same period, Indonesia would become the second largest supplier of industrial roundwood, with 46 million m in the year 2000 and 57 million in 2010, a 46% increase over the 1992 level. Malaysia will be the third largest supplier with 47 and 48 million in 2000 and 2010 respectively. The forecasts are consistently higher than the projections of 17 million in 2000 and 20 million in 2010 made by Jaakko Poyry (1992), and 24 million in 2000 and 25 million in 2010 made by Simons Reid Collins (1995).
Japan is also one of the top suppliers of industrial roundwood within the region. Its production is forecast to increase from 28 million m3 in 1992 to 29 million in the year 2000 and 31 million in 2010. The supply potential of Japan's plantation forests has been estimated at nearly 66 million m per year if managed for maximum biological yield, which is well over twice that of current production level. If such an increase can be realized, Japan could virtually eliminate its dependence on wood imports. A 1987 study published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries, predicted Japan's domestic production of industrial roundwood at 40-43 million m for 1994 and 45-52 million for 2004.
For the Republic of Korea, it is forecast that domestic production of industrial roundwood would decrease slightly between 1992 and 2010.
The total imports by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise from 68 million m3 in 1992 to 94 million in the year 2000 and 105 million in 2010. The expansion of imports would be faster with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% between 1992 and 2000 and 1.1% between 2000 and 2010, compared with 1.9% from 1982 to 1992. The region's world share will, increase slightly from 1992 level of 70% to 76% in 2010.
Japan and the Republic of Korea will still be the top two importers in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. Of the two countries, Japan would almost double its imports of industrial roundwood, while the Republic of Korea's imports would remain stable. China's imports gradually decline. With the projected rising consumption, Japan's imports of industrial roundwood are expected to grow from 47 million m3 in 1992 to 75 million in 2000 and 84 million in 2010, despite the increasing domestic production. And the share of imports in total consumption will increase from 63% in 1992 to 72% in 2000 and 73% in 2010.
As shown in Table 5, the exports of industrial roundwood from countries in the Asia-pacific region are projected to increase moderately from 35 million m3 in 1992 to 44 and 51 million in the years 2000 and 2010. The region's share of the world total exports would increase to 37% by 2010. In 2010, the largest exporters in the region are, ranked by volume, Malaysia (18 million m3), New Zealand (16 million), Australia (8 million), Myanmar (4 million), Papua New Guinea (2.5 million), and China (0.9 million).
Japan will still be the largest importer of industrial roundwood in 2010 with 84 million m, 45% of which will be from countries within the region, and 57% from other parts of the world. Japanese imports will increase by 78% by the year 2010, more than the increase in domestic supply. The United States (16 million m3) is likely to continue to be the principal supplier of Japanese wood markets, followed by New Zealand (13 million), Malaysia (12 million), Chile (11 million), Australia (7.7 million), Russia (5.3 million), and Canada (2.2 million).
Historical trends
During the last three decades, the rate of growth in sawnwood world-wide has been slow partly due to substitution by other wood and non-wood materials. Among the products substituting for sawnwood, especially in developed countries, are wood-based panel products - plywood, particle board, and fibreboard, which have grown rapidly in the last three decades. Substitution has been encouraged by two factors: declining prices of wood-based panels relative to sawnwood, and the relative ease with which panels can be installed.
Sawnwood consumption in the Asia-Pacific region nearly doubled between 1962 and 1992, from 53 million m3 to 105 million (Table 6), an average annual growth of 3%. Its world share dropped from 37% to 24% over the same period. Of the amount in 1992, 55 million m were coniferous sawnwood and 50 million m non-coniferous. The largest consumers were Japan with 38 million m3, China with 21 million and India with 18 million. The total consumption of those three countries accounted for over 72% of the region's total in 1992.
Table 6. Sawnwood production, imports, exports and consumption (1000 m3).
The region produced 97 million m3 of sawnwood in 1992, 84% more than in 1962. During the same time, the Asia-Pacific share decreased from 38% of the world's total in 1962 to 22% in 1992. Of the sawnwood production in 1992, 46 million m3 were sawnwood and 51 million non-coniferous. The largest producers in the region were Japan, China, India, Malaysia and Indonesia. Of the region's total production, Japan accounted for more than 28%, while China, India, Malaysia and Indonesia had 20%, 18%, 10% and 9% respectively.
The total imports of sawnwood in the Asia-Pacific region increased sharply from 1.6 million m3 in 1962 to 17 million in 1992, and from 10% to 22% of the world's total. In 1992, more than 10 million m of imports were of coniferous species. Within the region, the largest importers in 1992 were Japan with 10 million m3, Thailand and China with 1.8 million each, and Australia with 1.2 million.
The Asia-Pacific countries exported about 9.5 million m3 of sawnwood in 1992, up significantly from 1.5 million in 1962 but slower than the increases in imports. While the region's share of imports rose over the last thirty years, that of exports declined from 28% to 12%. Most of the Asia-Pacific exports were in non-coniferous sawnwood (8 million m3). New Zealand was the only important exporter of coniferous sawnwood in the region, with nearly 1 million m3 in 1992, or 62% of the region's total.
The Asia-Pacific region's exports of non-coniferous sawnwood rose rapidly from 1.3 million m3 in 1962 to 8 million m3 in 1992, with a peak of 10 million m3 in 1989. In 1989, however, the Indonesia government levied heavy taxes, which reduced exports. Prior to 1989, Malaysia and Indonesia were the two main exporters of the region. By volume, Malaysia exported more than 51% of the region's total, and Indonesia 27%. Since 1989, Malaysia has continued to dominate the trade in non-coniferous sawnwood, with 5.4 million m3 exported in 1992, 68% of total Asia-Pacific exports. In contrast, Indonesia's exports dropped to 711 thousand m, or about only 9% in 1992.
Outlook
Over the next twenty years, global sawnwood consumption should continue to grow, although at a reduced rate. The Asia-Pacific region's consumption of sawnwood is projected to increase from 102 million m3 in 1992 to 125 million in the year 2010 (Table 6). This is an average annual growth rate of only 1.1%, slower than the last thirty years' average of 3.2%. The Asia-Pacific share of the world total consumption is expected to rise from 24% in 1992 to 26% by the year 2010. Although India, China and Indonesia will have sizeable increases in consumption, Japan should still be the leading consumer in the region. Japan's consumption should continue to grow, but at a reduced rate, from 38 million m3 in 1992 to 40 million m3 in the year 2010.
The 1992 distribution of the region's consumption was: coniferous sawnwood -52% and non-coniferous sawnwood - 48%. By the year 2010, it will be reversed: coniferous sawnwood - 47 % and non-coniferous sawnwood - 53 %.
Sawnwood production in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow from 96 million m3 in 1992 to 120 million in 2010. Coniferous production would increase to 53 million m3, while production of non-coniferous would reach 67 million m3 in 2010. The region's world share should rise from 23% to 25%. In 2010, the major producers of sawnwood would be Japan with 33 million, India with 21 million m, China with 21 million, and Indonesia with 13 million and Malaysia with 11 million. Of them, India, Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to be self-sufficient, while China and Japan would depend on imports.
The Asia-Pacific imports are expected to be stable between 1992 and 2010, from 17 million m3 to 19 million. In 2010, 10 million m3 would be coniferous sawnwood and 9 million non-coniferous sawnwood. The region's share of the world's total, would decrease from 22% to 20%. The largest importer in 2010 would be Japan importing 8 million m3, almost all softwood lumber. There would be other two countries with imports exceeding 1 million m3: China (3.6 million) and Thailand (3.4 million m3).
As shown in Table 6, the exports of sawnwood by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to increase from 11 million m3 in 1992 to 13 million in the year 2010. The region's share of the world total exports would slightly decrease from 15% to 14% over the same period. The largest exporter in the region in 2010 would be Malaysia with 5 million m3, almost all non-coniferous sawnwood, accounting for over 55% of the Asia-Pacific region's total exports. Other important exporters in the region would include Indonesia (1.8 million) and New Zealand (1.3 million m).
Historical trends
Wood-based panels have a broad diversity of uses in every economy around the world. However, three areas are the most important users: construction, furniture and packaging. Over the last three decades, wood-based panels, veneer and plywood in particular, have been the most dynamic forest products in the expansion of consumption, production and trade in the Asia-Pacific region. While consumption increased markedly in many countries, production and exports have expanded at hitherto unheard of rates, especially in Indonesia, since the early 1980s.
From 1962 to 1992, consumption of wood-based panels in the Asia-Pacific region soared from 2.7 million m3 to 29 million, 24% of the world consumption (Table 7). Of the total wood-based panels consumption, 2 million m were veneer sheets in 1992, plywood 19 million, particle board 5 million, and fibreboard 4 million. The leading consumers were Japan with 12 million m3, China with 8 million, the Republic of Korea with 3 million and Indonesia with 2 million. The consumption of those three countries together represented over 85% of the region's total in 1992.
The Asia-Pacific production of wood-based panels increased from 3.2 million m3 in 1962 to 32 million in 1992, accounting for 26% of the world's total. Veneer sheets production was 2 million m3, plywood 22.5 million, particle board 4 million, and fibreboard 3.6 million. The largest producers in 1992 were Indonesia with 10.5 million m3, Japan with 8 million, China with 4.8 million, Malaysia with 3.5 million, and the Republic of Korea with 1.6 million. Of them, Indonesia and Malaysia were self-sufficient in wood-based panels, while others, to some extent, relied on imports.
The Asia-Pacific region was a net exporter of wood-based panels from 1962 to 1992. The total imports of the region amounted to 11 million m3 in 1992, 45% of the world's total. More than three-quarters of imports were plywood, and most of them were intra-regional trade. The two dominant importers in 1992 were Japan with 4.3 million m3 and China with 3.4 million, who took 39% and 31% of the region's total imports, respectively. The Republic of Korea also imported sizeable amount of wood-based panels in 1992, about 1.5 million m3.
Table7. Wood-based panels production, imports, exports and consumption 1000 m3).
The total exports of wood-based panels in the Asia-Pacific were 655 thousand m3 in 1962 and 13.7 million in 1992, a constant 55% share of the world's total. While plywood exports represented more than 86% of the total exports of wood-based panels. The major exporters were Indonesia with 8.8 million m3 and Malaysia with 2.5 million. The main destinations of the two countries' exports were countries within the Asia-Pacific region, but the exports to the United States and the European Union were also significant.
Outlook
The historical trends in wood-based panels consumption will likely continue over the next two decades. The Asia-Pacific region's consumption is expected to increase 38% between 1992 and 2010, from 29 million m3 to about 40 million. This is an average growth of 2% per year. Over the same period, the world total consumption of wood-based is projected to increase from 121 million m3 in 1992 to 146 million in the year 2010. Thus, the Asia-Pacific region's share of the world total would rise from 24% in 1992 to 27% by the year 2010.
The 1992 distribution of the region's consumption was: veneer sheets - 7%, plywood - 65%, particle board - 15%, and fibreboard - 13%. By the year 2010, this distribution is forecast to change slightly: veneer sheets - 7%, plywood - 67%, particle board - 14 %, and fibreboard - 12 %.
To meet the increasing requirements, production of wood-based panels in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to increase from 32 million m3 in 1992 to 42 million by the year 2010. Of the total production in 2010, 2.2 million m would be veneer sheets, 29.7 million plywood, 5 million particle board and 5 million fibreboard. Meanwhile, the region's world share would rise from 26% to 29%. By 2010, the major producers of wood-based panels in the region would still be Indonesia with 13 million m3 and Japan with 12 million. There would be four other countries with production exceeding 1 million m3 in 2010: China (5.9), Malaysia (3.5), the Republic of Korea (3) and Australia (1.4).
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to still be a net exporter of wood-based panels by the year 2010. Total imports are projected to increase slightly from 11 million m3 in 1992 to 12.6 million in 2010, while total exports would rise by 16% from 14 to 16 million. The region's world share is forecast to decrease from 45% to 43% for imports, and decrease from 56% to 49% for exports between 1992 and 2010. China is expected to increase its imports of wood-based panels, mostly plywood, and to replace Japan as the number one importer in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan's imports of wood-based panels are projected to decline from 4.3 million m in 1992 to 2.8 million in 2010. This would be largely due to the accelerating domestic production in Japan. Another country with imports exceeding 1 million m3 in 2010 would be the Republic of Korea (1.4 million m3).
Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to dominate other countries in the region in exports of wood-based panels in coming years. As shown in Table 7, the exports of wood-based panels from Indonesia would increase much from 8.8 million m in 1992 to 10.2 million in the year 2010, while those from Malaysia are forecast to drop from 2.5 to 2 million. The exports of these two countries would take 85% of the Asia-Pacific region's total exports. Plywood would account for nearly 97% of wood-based panels originating from Indonesia, and about 72% of those from Malaysia.
Historical trends
Production of paper and paperboard has traditionally been based on softwood resources. Thus North America and the Nordic countries have dominated the production and trade in this sector. It is also a capital intensive industry requiring a higher degree of technical know-how than other forest industries. Therefore, consumption, production and trade of paper and paperboard have taken place mostly among developed countries over the last thirty years. Japan has played a leading role in both consumption and production of paper and paperboard in the Asia-Pacific region.
The rate of growth of paper and paperboard consumption between 1962 and 1992 was between the rapid development of consumption of wood-based panels and the rather stagnant situation for sawnwood. The general evolution of trends in the Asia-Pacific is broadly similar to that of wood-based panels.
The Asia-Pacific region's consumption of paper and paperboard increased from about 11 million metric tons in 1962 to over 69 million in 1992 (Table 8), Its world share, meanwhile, slipped from 41% to 29%. Of the 1992 consumption, 8 million metric tons were newsprint, 20 million printing and writing paper, and 41 million m3 other paper and paperboard. The largest consumers were Japan with 28 million metric tons and China with 22 million. The combined consumption of the two countries accounted for over 73 % of the region's total in 1992.
Table 8. Paper and paperboard production, imports, exports and consumption (1000 mt).
Production of paper and paperboard in the Asia-Pacific region increased at an average annual rate of 18%, from 10 million metric tons in 1962 to 64 million in 1992, accounting then for 26% of world's total. Of the total production in 1992, newsprint was 6 million metric tons, printing and writing paper 19 million, and other paper and paperboard 39 million. The largest producers in 1992 were Japan with 28 million metric tons and China with 20 million. There were four other countries with production exceeding 2 million metric tons: the Republic of Korea (5.5), India (2.4), Indonesia (2.2) and Australia (2.0). Japan, the Republic of Korea and Indonesia were self-sufficient, while the rest depended on the imports to meet their domestic needs.
The Asia-Pacific region was a net importer of paper and paperboard in the last three decades. The total imports of the region grew to 11 million metric tons in 1992 (29% of world imports) from 955 thousand tons in 1962. About 60% of those imports in 1992 were other paper and paperboard, and newsprint and printing and writing paper accounted for 20% each. The largest importers in 1992 were China with 2.9 million metric tons, Hong Kong with 2.3 million and Japan with 1.2 million. Of Hong Kong's imports, nearly half were re-exported. Australia, Malaysia and Singapore also imported sizeable amount of paper and paperboard in 1992.
Exports of paper and paperboard in the region increased from 316 thousand to 5.2 million metric tons between 1962 and 1992, staying at 14% of the world's exports. In 1992, other paper and paperboard exports represented nearly 76% of total exports. The major exporters were Hong Kong with 1.3 million metric tons and Japan with 1.2 million. China was the main destination for the exports of paper and paperboard from Hong Kong and Japan.
Outlook
The Asia-Pacific region's paper and paperboard consumption is expected to nearly double between 1992 and 2010, from 69 million metric tons to about 128 million. This implies an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. Over the same period, the world total consumption of paper and paperboard is projected to increase from 238 million metric tons in 1992 to 382 million in 2010. Thus, the Asia-Pacific region's share of the world total would rise from 29% in 1992 to 33 % by the year 2010.
Although China's consumption of paper and paperboard is expected to more than double from 1992 to 2010, Japan should still be the largest consumer in the region. Other countries which will have sizeable increases in consumption include the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, India, Australia, Thailand and Malaysia.
In 1992, the distribution of the region's consumption was: newsprint - 11%, printing and writing paper - 29%, and other paper and paperboard - 60%. This distribution is forecast to change to 10%, 36% and 54% respectively by 2010.
Coupled with the growth in consumption, production of paper and paperboard would double from 64 million metric tons in 1992 to 117 million by the year 2010. Of the total production in 2010, 10.4 million metric tons are expected to be newsprint, 45.6 million printing and writing paper, and 62.8 million other paper and paperboard. Over the same period, the region's world share would rise from 26% to 31%. In 2010, the major producers of paper and paperboard in the region would be Japan with 50 million metric tons, China with 40 million, and the Republic of Korea with 10 million. Of those three countries, Japan is expected to be a net exporter, while China and the Republic of Korea would be able to supply nearly 90% and 91%, respective, of their domestic consumption. There would be five other countries in the region producing more than 1 million metric tons in 2010: Indonesia (4.1), Australia (4.0), India (2.9) and Thailand (1.4).
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to remain a net importer of paper and paperboard in the next twenty years. Total imports are projected to increase 55%, from 11 million metric tons in 1992 to 17 million in 2010, meanwhile, the region's share of world total imports would increase from 29% to 37%. China is expected to remain the largest importer of paper and paperboard in the region, and to expand its imports from 2.9 million metric tons to 5.0 million from 1992 to 2010, mostly in other paper and paperboard. Japan's imports of paper and paperboard are projected to decline from 1.2 million metric tons in 1992 to 480 thousand in 2010. This drop would be caused mainly by the significant increases in domestic production in Japan. Four other countries or territories that are expected to have imports exceeding 1 million metric tons in 2010 are Hong Kong (2.6), Malaysia (1.5), the Republic of Korea (1.1) and Singapore (1.2 million).
Total exports of paper and paperboard in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to amount to 6.1 million metric tons in the year 2010, up 32% from the 1992's level. Exports would be 10% newsprint, 39% printing and writing paper and 51% other paper and paperboard. Japan is expected to dominate other countries in the region in exports of paper and paperboard, and its exports would more than double by 2010, accounting for nearly two-third of the region's total. As a result of the expanding exports from Japan and increase in domestic consumption, many countries in the Asia-Pacific region would experience declining exports.
In market economies, prices determine in part the demand and supply of forest products. Price levels are also critical in determining the feasibility of forestry projects. It is, therefore, useful that the methodology to predict consumption, production and trade gave also forecasts of the attendant prices.
Figure 1 presents historical trends and forecasts for industrial roundwood prices in 1992 US dollars at the world level, together with the price of the major forest products manufactured from them. Historically, the price of sawnwood paralleled the price of industrial roundwood, mainly because roundwood is a major part of the total cost of sawmilling, reaching as high as 60-70%.
For the pulp and paper sector, wood costs account for a smaller share of total costs, notably because of high capital costs. However, because the technology is broadly similar all over the world, wood cost is one of the means whereby individual companies seek to gain a comparative advantage (United Nations 1986). Therefore, to some extend, the price trend of paper and paperboard also followed that of industrial roundwood during the last three decades. The strong rise after 1973 was due to high energy costs which declined subsequently. Unlike the price of sawnwood and paper and paperboard, the price of wood-based panels declined and significantly differed from that of industrial roundwood over the long-term. This phenomenon was due largely to the technological improvement in manufacturing which allowed the use of lower quality raw materials.
Price of industrial roundwood remained roughly stable, in real terms, in the world until the early 1970s. Between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s, the world price of industrial roundwood fluctuated and reached a second peak in 1979/80, at almost the same level as 1974. Since then the price started declining and by 1986 the "gain" of the late 1970s was entirely lost, and the price level around 1992 ($93/m3) was even slightly lower than that of the early 1960s ($101/m3). Thus, based on real prices, there was no evidence during the past thirty years, of increasing scarcity in industrial roundwood, world-wide.
Figure 1. Real world prices of wood products, 1962-2010.
The price trends for sawnwood were very similar to those for roundwood. The price peaked in 1974, and was followed by a drop. After 1974, trends stayed flat and began to fall in 1980. Not until the late 1980s, did the price of sawnwood begin to recover, and by 1992 the price level reached $227/m3, slightly higher than that of the early 1960s ($206/m3).
The price for wood-based panels fell from $616/m3 in 1962 to $320/m3 in 1992. This steady fall in price was made possible mostly by a reduction in costs of production (new processes, economies of scale, cheaper raw material from sawmill residues). Among all panel products, the real prices of veneer and plywood declined more than those of particle board and fibreboard.
The real price of paper and paperboard followed an overall trend similar to that of sawnwood and panels. The price declined during the 1960s and the early 1970s. Thereafter, the world showed a sharp rise in real price in 1973/74, at the time of the energy crisis, but it did not last. After that, the price never came up to the 1974 level, although there were a couple of peaks. Since 1989, the paper industries around the world have experienced a difficult period, with real prices declining in four straight years. But, the price of paper and paperboard began to see a strong recovery inmost parts of the world in 1995.
The price outlook shows that the price of industrial roundwood world-wide will increase slowly over the next twenty years. As a consequence of the rising price of raw material, the prices of sawnwood, wood-based panels, and paper and paperboard will also increase. While the price of paper and paperboard is projected to change little, the price of sawnwood would increase 75%, from $227 per metric ton in 1992 to $397 per metric ton in the year 2010, and the price of wood-based panels would increase 40% from 320/m3 to 446/m3, over the same period.
