Forecasts and Analysis

Roundwood
Sawnwood
Wood-based Panels
Paper and Paperboard
Comparison with the Recent FAO World Outlook for Forest Products

The Asia-Pacific Forest Products model was applied to make preliminary forecasts for the period of 1993 to 2010, based on the assumptions outlined above. After these forecasts are reviewed, better forecasts may be prepared by altering the assumptions and/or introducing constraints on specific variables.

Roundwood

Fuelwood and charcoal
Industrial roundwood

Consumption of roundwood in the Asia-Pacific will continue to rise, as rapidly growing economies are concentrated in the region. Forecast shows that consumption in the region will grow from 1,161 million m³ to 1,232 million in the year 2000 and 1,353 million in 2010, an increase of 11% and 20% (Figure 17). The Asia-Pacific region should account for 35% of world-wide consumption of roundwood in the year 2010, up slightly from 33% in 1992. Fuelwood and charcoal will continue to take a large share of total roundwood, but decline from 72% in 1992 to 69% in the year 2010.

Figure 17. Roundwood consumption in the Asia-Pacific region and the world, 1962-2010.

Figure 18 shows historical and forecast trends for industrial roundwood prices in 1992 US dollars at the world level. Price of industrial roundwood remained roughly stable, in real terms, in the world until the early 1970s. Between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s, the world price of industrial roundwood fluctuated and reached a second peak in 1979/80, at almost the same level as 1974. Since then the price started declining and by 1986 the "gain" of the late 1970s were entirely lost, and the price around 1992 ($93/m³) was even slightly lower than that of the early 1960s ($101/m³). The price outlook indicates that the price of industrial roundwood world-wide will steadily increase over the next twenty years, and is expected to nearly double by the year 2010.

Fuelwood and charcoal

Use of fuelwood and charcoal has been and will still be the dominant use of wood in the developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Total consumption is projected to be 870 million cubic meters by the year 2000 and 930 million by 2010, 7% and 19% over the 1992's level. By the year 2000, the top three consuming countries will still be India (268 million cubic meters), China (212 million) and Indonesia (165 million) (Table 85).

Figure 18. Real world price for industrial roundwood, 1962-2010.

In Japan, New Zealand, Australia and Hong Kong, income increase is expected to have negative effect on fuelwood and charcoal demand. As a result, their consumption in 2010 will be lower than current consumption.

Historically, most countries in the Asia-Pacific region were largely self-sufficient in fuelwood and charcoal, and imports and exports were negligible. It is expected that the situation will continue in the future. Thus, demand and supply will be basically balanced in every country and territory in the coming years. Therefore, the forecasts were made under the assumption that there would be no international trade in fuelwood and charcoal.

Industrial roundwood

Consumption of industrial roundwood in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to rise from 320 million m³ in 1992 to 361 million in the year 2000 and 422 million in 2010 (Table 86). This represents an annual increase of 2.3% between 1992 and 2000 and 1.6% for the 2000-2010 period, around the 1.8% growth for the 1982-92 period but lower than the 3.0% growth during the period of 1962-92. The Asia-Pacific region's share of the world's total will rise from 20% in 1992 to 22% in the year 2000 and 23% in 2010, reflecting a faster growth in consumption than the world average in the next two decades.

Table 85. Consumption of fuelwood and charcoal, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	2974	2291	1720
China	203765	212060	222905
Hong Kong	289	123	76
India	257789	268283	282003
Indonesia	145455	165138	184411
Japan	856	269	201
Korea Rep	4491	4674	4913
Malaysia	9029	10605	11916
Myanmar	18632	20716	22859
New Zealand	50	37	27
Papua New Guinea	5533	5649	5941
Philippines	35035	37899	41350
Singapore
Solomon Islands	138	140	145
Thailand	34859	39765	44503
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	122256	99618	107421
Asia Pacific	841151	867267	930388
Canada	6867	5644	4264
Chile	7999	9010	9907
European Union	36845	31563	23988
Russia	81051	78800	81977
United States	93246	75472	58531
Rest of the World	806171	893690	943514
World	1873330	1961445	2052569
Share	45 %	44%	45%

Table 86. Consumption of industrial roundwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	10147	11932	15869
China	98531	96309	122494
Hong Kong	390	183	428
India	25306	25651	26331
Indonesia	38876	46303	56495
Japan	75086	103793	115360
Korea Rep	12123	12139	14187
Malaysia	26896	29449	30244
Myanmar	2949	1098	1533
New Zealand	10029	9716	9736
Papua New Guinea	646	488	523
Philippines	4159	4129	4747
Singapore	-99	1726	2488
Solomon Islands	-184	0	0
Thailand	4505	4109	4970
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	10659	14190	16954
Asia Pacific	320019	361216	422357
Canada	177851	180313	185725
Chile	13647	12501	11245
European Union	224516	260800	284683
Russia	244204	205956	223909
United States	376858	391693	404988
Rest of the World	243375	252255	315890
World	1600470	1664733	1848796
Share	20%	22%	23%

Most countries within the region are expected to increase their domestic consumption of industrial roundwood over the next twenty years. Among them, China, Japan and Indonesia will remain the top three consumers. China's consumption will increase from 99 million m³ in 1992 to 122 million in 2010. Consumption of industrial roundwood in Japan is projected to rise nearly 41% between 1992 and 2010, from 75 million m³ to 115 million (Figure 19). The increase in consumption will most likely occur in the wood-based panels and paper and paperboard sectors. Similar to China, Indonesia will also experience a faster growth period, and increase its industrial roundwood consumption by the year 2010. Other than these three countries, Malaysia and India will also be important consumers of industrial roundwood in the Asia-Pacific region by the year 2010.

To meet the increasing requirements, the production of industrial round in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to rise, from 288 million m³ in 1992 to 368 million in 2010 (Table 87). The region's world share will be up slightly from 18% in 1992 to 19% in the year 2000 and 20% in 2010.

Table 87. Production of industrial roundwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	16552	18944	23615
China	92792	94000	121000
Hong Kong	488	571	695
India	24570	25500	26300
Indonesia	39351	46215	56501
Japan	27736	29016	31296
Korea Rep	1994	1905	1799
Malaysia	44851	47333	47947
Myanmar	4101	4813	5878
New Zealand	14992	20423	25434
Papua New Guinea	2655	2668	3021
Philippines	3614	4042	4650
Singapore
Solomon Islands	330	396	496
Thailand	2736	2932	3779
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	11207	13131	16006
Asia Pacific	287969	311888	368416
Canada	179215	183708	189483
Chile	17774	20260	23863
European Union	208541	241316	266563
Russia	256000	217208	236321
United States	402500	412591	425561
Rest of the World	251377	277762	338590
World	1603376	1664733	1848796
Share	18%	19%	20%

China will remain the largest producer of industrial roundwood in the region by the year 2010. China is expected to be largely self-sufficient in wood supply, and production is forecast to increase from 93 million m³ to 121 million in 2010. Over the same period, Indonesia will become the second largest supplier of industrial roundwood in the Asia-Pacific region, with 46 million m³ in the year 2000 and 57 million in 2010, which represents 18% and 43% increases over the 1992 levels. Malaysia will be the third largest supplier, with 47 and 48 million m³ in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Those forecasts are higher than the projections of 17 million in the year 2000 and 20 million in 2010 made by Jaakko Poyry (1992), and 24 million in the year 2000 and 25 million in 2010 suggested by Simons Reid Collins (1995).

According to the Indonesia government's 5-year development plan (Repelita V) outlined in 1988, the target of annual wood harvesting would be 42 million m³ by the mid-1990s, moreover, the recent FAO study entitled "Situation and Outlook of the Forestry Sector in Indonesia" estimated that wood supply would decline from 39 to about 28 million m³ between 1990 and 2010 by continuing traditional operations, but would increase to 50 million by the year 2000 and 60 million in 2010 under the development scenario, and would increase to 50 million by the year 2000 and nearly 80 million in 2010 under the intensive development scenario (Jaakko Poyry 1992). Therefore, the present forecast is consistent with the development scenario.

Figure 19. Japanese production and consumption of industrial roundwood, 1962-2010.

In this forecast, Japan is also one of the top suppliers of industrial roundwood within the Asia-Pacific region. Its production increases from 28 million m³ in 1992 to 29 million in 2000 and 31 million in 2010 (Table 87). As shown in Figure 19, Japan's domestic production of industrial roundwood fell from a peak over 52 million m³ in 1967 to about 28 million in 1992, and currently accounts for only 37% of the country total industrial roundwood consumption. Past analysts of Japanese domestic timber supply have speculated the potential of an "age of domestic timber", wherein Japan steps-up timber harvest volumes from its expanding plantations to meet an increasing share of domestic demand. However, this has not occurred, due in part to the stable supply on global wood markets and the high wages and labour intensity associated with Japanese forestry (CINTRAFOR, 1994). The supply potential of Japan's plantation forests has been estimated at nearly 66 million m³ per year if managed for maximum biological yield, which is well over twice that of current production level. If such an increase can be realized, Japan could virtually eliminate its dependence on wood imports. In a 1987 study the ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries predicted that Japan's domestic production of industrial roundwood could be 45-52 million m³ by 2004 (CINTRAFOR, 1994). In that case, the present forecasts would be plausible.

For the Republic of Korea, it is forecast that domestic production of industrial roundwood would drop slightly between 1992 and 2010.

Table 88 shows imports of industrial roundwood by country and territory, between 1992 and 2010. The total imports by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise from 68 million m³ in 1992 to 94 million in 2000 and 105 million in 2010. But the expansion of imports would be first faster then slower with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% between 1992 and 2000 and 1.1% between 2000 and 2010, compared to 1.9% from 1982 to 1992. The region's world share will increase from 70% in 1992 to 76% in 2010.

Table 88. Imports of industrial roundwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	7	0	0
China	6442	3475	2425
Hong Kong	488	182	413
India	739	151	31
Indonesia	78	574	530
Japan	47380	74777	84064
Korea Rep	10135	10234	12388
Malaysia	10	17	107
Myanmar	0	0	0
New Zealand	11	13	38
Papua New Guinea
Philippines	550	90	104
Singapore	70	1726	2488
Solomon Islands		125	66
Thailand	1794	1177	1192
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	608	1059	948
Asia Pacific	68312	93602	104793
Canada	2420	588	560
Chile	1
European Union	21385	22503	21498
Russia	24	0	0
United States	1503	2138	2331
Rest of the World	3723	5347	8747
World	97341	124178	137929
Share	70%	75%	76%

Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore will be the top three importers in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. Of the three countries, Japan and Singapore will be the countries which will have higher rising rate of imports of industrial roundwood, while the Republic of Korea's imports will increase slower. With the projected rising consumption, Japan's imports of industrial roundwood are expected to grow from 47 million m³ in 1992 to 75 million in 2000 and 84 million in 2010, despite the increasing domestic production. And the share of imports in total consumption will increase from 63% in 1992 to 72% in 2000 and 73% in 2010.

The Republic of Korea's imports of industrial roundwood is forecast to stay at the current level of 10-12 million m³ for the next twenty years.

China would further reduce its imports of industrial roundwood in the future, from 6.4 million m³ in 1992 to 2.4 million by the year 2010, accounting for about 2% of total consumption. This declining trend in imports seems reasonable, as China's sawnwood consumption has decreased since the late 1980s, and imports of wood-based panels and paper products have risen sharply, moreover. China's ministry of Forestry has recently included the development of new plantations to provide fibre sources for wood pulping in its ninth "Five Years Planning", and set a goal of increasing woodpulp and paper production capacity from the current level of 350 thousand metric tons to one million metric tons by the year 2000 and three million metric tons by 2010 (Chinese ministry of Forestry 1994).

Table 89. Exports of industrial roundwood, in thousand m³,1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	6412	7013	7746
China	703	1166	931
Hong Kong	98	570	680
India	3
Indonesia	553	486	537
Japan	30
Korea Rep	6
Malaysia	17965	17901	17810
Myanmar	1152	3715	4346
New Zealand	4974	10720	15735
Papua New Guinea	2009	2180	2498
Philippines	5	3	7
Singapore	169
Solomon Islands	514	521	562
Thailand	25
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	516
Asia Pacific	35134	44274	50852
Canada	3784	3983	4319
Chile	4128	7760	12618
European Union	2068	3019	3377
Russia	11820	11253	12412
United States	27145	23036	22904
Rest of the World	12853	30854	31446
World	96932	124178	137929
Share	36%	36%	37%

As shown in Table 89, the exports of industrial roundwood by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to increase moderately from 35 million m³ in 1992 to 44 and 52 million in the years 2000 and 2010. The region's share of the world total exports would increase to 37% by 2010. The largest exporters in the region are, ranked by volume, Malaysia (18 million m³), New Zealand (16 million), Australia (8 million), Myanmar (4 million), Papua New Guinea (2.5 million), and China (0.9 million).

The projected direction of trade in industrial roundwood within the Asia-Pacific region and between Asia-Pacific and other countries and territories in 2010 are shown in Table 90. Countries of the Asia-Pacific region are expected to import 100 million m³ of industrial roundwood, and around 46% will be intra-regional trade and the rest 54% will come from other countries and territories.

Table 90. Direction of trade in industrial roundwood, in thousand m³, 2010.

Japan will still lead all countries in import in 2010 with 84 million m³, nearly 43% of which from countries within the region, and 57% from other parts of the world. Figure 20 shows Japanese imports of industrial roundwood from 1962 to 2010. It is expected that Japanese imports will increase 78% from 1992 to 2010, and more than the domestic supply of industrial roundwood. The United States (16.3 million m³) is likely to continue to be the principal supplier of Japanese wood markets, followed by New Zealand (13.2 million), Malaysia (12.2 million), Chile (10.9 million), Australia (7.7 million), Russia (5.3 million), and Canada (2.2 million).

Figure 20. Japanese imports of industrial roundwood, 1962-2010.

While the Asia-Pacific exports will continue to go to countries in the same region, primarily to Japan, exports to other regions will rise, accounting for 6% by the year 2010. Malaysia is forecast to remain the single largest exporter of industrial roundwood in the region, and New Zealand, Australia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and even China are all expected to gain in their global market shares.

Sawnwood

Coniferous sawnwood
Non-coniferous sawnwood

Figure 21 shows the Asia-Pacific region and world's consumption of sawnwood and sleepers for the period 1962 to 2010. Over the last three decades, the rate of growth in sawnwood world-wide has been slow partly due to substitution by other wood and non-wood materials. Among the products substituting for sawnwood, especially in developed countries, are wood-based panel products - plywood, particle board and fibreboard, which have grown fast in the last three decades (see Tables 40, 45 and 50).

Figure 21. Sawnwood consumption in the Asia-Pacific region and the world, 1962-2010.

During the next twenty years, global sawnwood consumption should continue to grow, although at a reduced rate. The Asia-Pacific region's consumption of sawnwood is projected to increase from 105 million m³ in 1992 to 125 million in the year 2010. This is an average annual growth rate of only 1.1%, slower than the last thirty years' average of 3.2%. Hardwood's share should increase from 48% in 1992 to 53% in the year 2010, as a result of increasing non-coniferous sawnwood production and static coniferous sawnwood production. The Asia-Pacific region's share of the world's total consumption is expected to rise from 24% in 1992 to 26% by the year 2010.

The 1992 percentage distribution of the region's consumption is: coniferous sawnwood - 52% and non-coniferous sawnwood - 48%. By the year 2010, this distribution will be reversed to: coniferous sawnwood - 47% and non-coniferous sawnwood - 53% (Figure 21).

The world prices for sawnwood, in 1992 US dollar, are shown in Figure 22. Historically, prices for softwood and hardwood sawnwood have been parallel, with hardwood prices growing slightly faster than softwood prices. This trend is likely to continue over the next two decades. The softwood price is projected to go up from $170 in 1992 to $302 in 2010, while the hardwood price will increase from $362 to $594/m³_.

Figure 22. Real world price of sawnwood, 1962-2010.

Although India, China and Indonesia will have sizeable increases in their sawnwood consumption, Japan should still be the leading consumer in the region. As shown in Figure 23, Japan's consumption of sawnwood should continue to grow towards the year 2010, although at a reduced rate compared to the last ten years. The level of consumption is projected to rise from 38 million m³ in 1992 to 40 million m³ in 2010.

Japan should remain a net importer of sawnwood, as the projected production would increase from about 28 million m³ in 1992 to 33 million in 2010 (Figure 23). The imports will account for nearly 20% of Japan's consumption by 2010, drop from 27% in 1992.

Figure 23. Japanese sawnwood production and consumption, 1962-2010.

Coniferous sawnwood

Coniferous sawnwood consumption in the Asia-pacific region is expected to still be 55 million m³ by the year 2000 and reach 59 million m³ by the year 2010, up 11 % in 2010 from 1992's level (Table 91). The region's share of the world's total will remain stable, 20% over the same period. By the year 2010, Japan (35 million m³) and China (13 million) will continue to lead other countries in the region, and the combined consumption of the two countries will account for 81 % of the total coniferous sawnwood consumption in the region, increasing slightly from 80% in 1992.

The softwood share of sawnwood consumption in Japan is expected to remain 87% in 2010. Figure 24 shows the past and future trends in Japanese coniferous sawnwood consumption, which resembles the development of total sawnwood consumption in Figure 23.

Total production of coniferous sawnwood in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to increase from 46 million m³ in 1992 to 53 million m³ in 2010, and meanwhile its world share would increase slightly from 15% to 16% (Table 92). While its production will increase gradually, Japan is expected to remain the largest producer of coniferous sawnwood in the Asia-Pacific, with 28 million m³ in 2010. Besides Japan, another top producer will be China, with 11 million m³ in the year 2010.

Table 91. Consumption of coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	2578	2918	3157
China	11780	10611	12718
Hong Kong	-3
India	2502	1938	1726
Indonesia	111	127	158
Japan	32853	33473	34890
Korea Rep	2846	3148	3572
Malaysia	-11
Myanmar
New Zealand	1573	1763	1926
Papua New Guinea	43	38	41
Philippines	5	4	4
Singapore	22	13	15
Solomon Islands
Thailand
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	761	705	832
Asia Pacific	55060	54738	59038
Canada	11164	10403	11232
Chile	1757	1964	2157
European Union	58103	59196	64682
Russia	48959	39870	42332
United States	106294	106384	114070
Rest of the World	34049	25976	29252
World	315386	298531	322762
Share	18%	18%	18%

Figure 24. Coniferous sawnwood production and consumption in Japan, 1962-2010.

Table 92. Production of coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	1558	2354	3022
China	11452	9856	11459
Hong Kong
India	2500	1935	1716
Indonesia	138	127	157
Japan	24423	26944	27962
Korea Rep	2810	2934	3259
Malaysia	69	77	56
Myanmar
New Zealand	2465	2899	3262
Papua New Guinea	43	38	41
Philippines	4	2	0
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Thailand
Rest of The Asia-Pacific	925	1370	2238
Asia Pacific	46387	48536	53172
Canada	55512	57058	68729
Chile	2582	2612	2609
European Union	52326	57051	66737
Russia	52000	41963	43867
United States	80972	72532	70744
Rest of the World	31207	18781	16906
World	320986	298532	322764
Share	15%	16%	16%

The Asia-Pacific region's imports are expected to remain the same level between 1992 and 2010. The region's share of the world's total, in turn, would decrease from 17% in 1992 to 13% by the year 2010. The largest importers of softwood lumber in the region in 2010 would be Japan (7 million m³) and China (1.3 million). The combined imports of the two countries are expected to account for more than 80% of the region's total. Imports of coniferous sawnwood in Australia are expected to fall from over one million m³ to 0.5 million between 1992 and 2010 (Table 93).

Instead, the region's exports of coniferous sawnwood are expected to grow but remain small level, accounting for 5% of the global exports in 2010. New Zealand will continue to dominate other countries within the region in exports. It is expected that New Zealand's coniferous sawnwood exports will increase from slightly less than 1 million m³ in 1992 to close to about 1.3 million by the year 2010. Australia will also see rapid increases in coniferous sawnwood exports, but both a smaller base (Tables 94).

Historically, the Asia-Pacific region has been a net importer of coniferous sawnwood, and will continue to be so in the future. By 2010, the major suppliers of the region would be Canada (60 million m³) and the United States (7.5 million) (Table 95). The only noticeable exporter of coniferous sawnwood in the region is New Zealand, as its exports would amount to nearly 1.3 million m³ in 2010. About 90% of which would be shipped to other Asia-Pacific countries.

Table 93. Imports of coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	1030	761	456
China	367	783	1276
Hong Kong	23	2	2
India	2	3	9
Indonesia	0	1	1
Japan	8433	6529	6929
Korea Rep	121	214	313
Malaysia	16	8	12
Myanmar		0	0
New Zealand	20	13	11
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	1	3	4
Singapore	11	13	15
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	91	931	1212
Asia Pacific	10115	9259	10239
Canada	1322	1586	2578
Chile	0
European Union	8817	5400	3234
Russia	19	1	1
United States	31578	40366	51574
Rest of the World	8349	8870	13473
World	60200	65481	81098
Share	17%	14%	13%

Table 94. Exports of coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	10	197	321
China	39	28	17
Hong Kong	26
India	0
Indonesia	27
Japan	3
Korea Rep	85
Malaysia	96	84	68
Myanmar
New Zealand	912	1150	1347
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines
Singapore	11
Solomon Islands
Thailand
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	255	1596	2619
Asia Pacific	1464	3055	4371
Canada	45670	48242	60075
Chile	825	648	452
European Union	2192	3254	5290
Russia	3060	2094	1536
United States	6256	6513	8247
Rest of the World	5485	1675	1128
World	64952	65481	81098
Share	2%	5%	5%

Table 95. Direction of trade in coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 2010.

Japan should remain the dominant importer among all other countries in the region. Ranked by volume, the main suppliers of softwood lumber to the Japanese market in 2010 should be Canada (4.0 million m³), the United States (2.0 million), New Zealand (600 thousand), and Russia (200 thousand). The evolution of Japanese softwood lumber imports by major suppliers from 1962 to 2010 are displayed in Figure 25.

Figure 25. Japanese softwood lumber imports from major suppliers, 1962-2010.

By 2010, Canada will supply a 58% of Japan's softwood lumber imports, up from 57% in 1992, while the United States share is expected to rise from 27% in 1992 to 29% in 2010. Such growths could be materialized only if business continued as usual in North America. However, a recent CINTRAFOR (1995) study suggested that continued expansion of lumber exports from North America may be limited by resource constraints and environmental issues in British Columbia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Although small, New Zealand is also expected to increase exports of coniferous sawnwood to Japan (Figure 25). But for Chile and Russia, the forecasts imply that the exports would decline gradually. These results agree with the CINTRAFOR study (1995) which suggests that New Zealand and Chile's principal species of softwood lumber, radiata pine, has been mostly used in Japan for lower-valued end uses, such as packaging, and can not be used to substitute Japanese domestic species or Douglas-fir and western hemlock form North America in the traditional housing market. For Russia, despite its high supply potential, the likelihood of radical expansion in softwood lumber exports to Japan may be reduced by the limited capital investment in production capacity and the inability of Russian woods to substitute for high-quality species used in traditional housing.

Non-coniferous sawnwood

Total consumption of non-coniferous sawnwood in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to increase from 50 million m³ in 1992 to 58 million in 2000 and 66 million in 2010 (Table 96). This implies an average annual growth of 1.7% between 1992 and 2010, compared to 2.8% from 1972 to 1992. The region's global share is expected to rise from 39% in 1992 to 41 % in the year 2000 and 43 % in 2010.

Table 96. Consumption of non-coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	1610	1819	1967
China	9061	10017	12007
Hong Kong	407	435	497
India	14956	17200	19231
Indonesia	7589	9128	10657
Japan	4638	4960	5366
Korea Rep	1492	2078	2472
Malaysia	3911	4744	5667
Myanmar	-27
New Zealand	66	74	80
Papua New Guinea	70	69	74
Philippines	392	393	449
Singapore	218	244	290
Solomon Islands	8	2	2
Thailand	2855	3240	3846
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	2785	3166	3735
Asia Pacific	50031	57567	66339
Canada	1097	1208	1304
Chile	420	504	582
European Union	13612	14895	15873
Russia	12944	11782	12510
United States	24802	26283	28181
Rest of the World	25904	27578	31056
World	128810	139815	155846
Share	39%	41%	43%

Consumption will grow between 1992 and 2010 in almost all of the countries or territories in the region. By the year 2010, the leading consumers of hardwood lumber in the region will be India with 19 million m³, China with 12 million and Indonesia with 11 million.

Figure 26 shows consumption and production of hardwood lumber in Japan from 1962 to 2010. Consumption will drop from the peak of 12 million m³ in 1973 to 5 million in the year 2010, reflecting the falling supply of tropical hardwoods. Production, however, will increase to 4.6 million m³ in 2010.

Figure 26. Non-coniferous sawnwood production and consumption in Japan, 1962-2010.

The production of the region is expected to grow from 50 million m³ in 1992 to 59 million in 2000 and 67 million by the year 2010 (Table 97). The region's world share is also to rise from 39% in 1992 to 42% and 43% in 2000 and 2010. Ranked by 2010 production levels, the major producers of non-coniferous sawnwood will be India with 19 million m³, Indonesia and Malaysia with 12 and 11 million respectively, and China with nearly 10 million. Of them, India will be self-sufficient in supplying its hardwood lumber market, China will be an importing country, and Indonesia and Malaysia will be main exporters of hardwood sawnwood.

The Asia-Pacific region has been a net exporter of non-coniferous sawnwood. This trend is likely to continue over the next two decades. Tables 98 and 99 summarize the import and export trends for non-coniferous sawnwood world-wide from 1992 to 2010. The Asia-Pacific region's imports are projected to increase 21% from 7 million m³ in 1992 to 8.6 million in the year 2010, while exports will increase 12% over the same period. The region's share of world imports will rise from 43% in 1992 and 58% in 2010, and the share of world exports is forecast to increase from 53% in 1992 to 61% in 2010.

Table 97. Production of non-coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	1464	1874	2276
China	7865	8684	9746
Hong Kong India	14960	17196	19218
Indonesia	8300	10427	12445
Japan	3106	3985	4573
Korea Rep	703	1436	2013
Malaysia	9300	10048	10612
Myanmar	282	372	541
New Zealand	57	66	75
Papua New Guinea	74	72	78
Philippines	448	428	462
Singapore	20	322	536
Solomon Islands	16	0	0
Thailand	1077	657	410
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	2805	3116	3716
Asia Pacific	50477	58682	66700
Canada	806	1580	2300
Chile	437	524	599
European Union	9177	12164	14494
Russia	13000	11837	12576
United States	26456	27351	28768
Rest of the World	28562	27676	30410
World	128915	139815	155846
Share	39%	42%	43%

The leading importers are projected to be Thailand (3.5 million m³), China (2.3 million), Japan (0.79 million), Singapore (0.74 million), and the Republic of Korea (0.46 million). Of those five countries, Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore would have a declining trend in imports of hardwood lumber from 1992 to 2010.

The largest exporter will be Malaysia (4.9 million m³), supplying more than half of the regional total exports, followed by Indonesia (1.8 million) and Singapore (1.0 million). While the exports from Malaysia would decrease slightly, Indonesia's exports of non-coniferous sawnwood would more than double between 1992 and 2010.

Table 100 shows the projected direction of trade in non-coniferous sawnwood in the year 2010. Relative to the 1992's levels (Table 28), exports from Indonesia and Singapore are expected to expand, while those from Malaysia and China would decline. For Malaysia, over 90% of total exports will go to countries within the Asia-Pacific countries, and the leading importers in the year 2010 will be Thailand with 3.5 million m³, and China with 2.3 million. Outside the region, the European Union will continue to be the largest importer of Asia-Pacific hardwood lumber, and the volumes are expected to increase from about 1.5 million m³ to 1.8 million between 1992 and 2010.

Table 98. Imports of non-coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	163	213	128
China	1423	1447	2331
Hong Kong	248	435	497
India	3	4	13
Indonesia	0	1	1
Japan	1551	975	793
Korea Rep	792	642	459
Malaysia	28	0	0
Myanmar		0	0
New Zealand	12	8	6
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines		3	10
Singapore	923	891	742
Solomon Islands	0	8	6
Thailand	1822	2616	3456
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	150	157	144
Asia Pacific	7115	7398	8584
Canada	832	514	308
Chile	0
European Union	6374	2988	1799
Russia	1	1	1
United States	652	914	1267
Rest of the World	1635	2182	2761
World	16609	13999	14720
Share	43%	53%	58%

Table 99. Exports of non-coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	17	269	437
China	227	115	70
Hong Kong	262
India	7
Indonesia	711	1299	1788
Japan	19
Korea Rep	3
Malaysia	5417	5305	4945
Myanmar	309	372	541
New Zealand	3
Papua New Guinea	4	3	4
Philippines	56	38	23
Singapore	725	969	987
Solomon Islands	8	6	4
Thailand	44	33	20
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	176	106	125
Asia Pacific	7988	8513	8944
Canada	541	887	1304
Chile	17	21	17
European Union	174	258	419
Russia	57	56	68
United States	2306	1983	1854
Rest of the World	3866	2281	2114
World	14949	13999	14720
Share	53%	61%	61%

Table 100. Direction of trade in non-coniferous sawnwood, in thousand m³, 2010.

Exports of North American hardwood lumber to the Asia-Pacific countries are projected to increase more than 4 times, from 700 thousand m³ in 1992 to 3.1 million in 2010. The main destinations of the exports will be Japan (180 thousand m³) and China (646 thousand).

Wood-based Panels

Veneer sheets
Plywood
Particle board
Fibreboard

Wood-based panels have seen the fastest growth, among all forest products, in consumption, production and trade since 1962 in the Asia-Pacific region. This trend will change over the next two decades, as shown in Figure 27. The Asia-Pacific region's wood-based panels consumption is expected to increase nearly 40% between 1992 and 2010, from 29 million m³ to about 40 million. This is an average growth of 2% per year. Over the same period, the world total consumption of wood-based panels is projected to increase from 121 million m³ in 1992 to 146 million in the year 2010. Thus, the Asia-Pacific region's share of the world would rise from 24% in 1992 to 27% by the year 2010.

The 1992 distribution of the region's consumption was: veneer sheets - 7%, plywood - 65%, particle board - 15%, and fibreboard - 13%. By the year 2010, this distribution would change slightly: veneer sheets - 7%, plywood - 66%, particle board -14%, and fibreboard - 13% (Figure 27).

The world prices for wood-based panels, in 1992 US dollar, are shown in Figure 28. Historically, prices for veneer sheets and plywood have been parallel and have declined in real terms, while prices of particle board and fibreboard remained fairly constant. This trend is predicted to change over the next two decades, with all panel products prices rising and prices of veneer sheets and plywood growing faster as prices of industrial roundwood increase. Prices of veneer sheets and plywood are projected to increase from $583 to $697 and from $385 to $548, respectively, between 1992 and the year 2010. Prices will also go up from $232 to $304 for particle board and from $301 to $431 for fibreboard.

Although Japan's consumption of wood-based panels is expected to increase from 12.4 million m³ in 1992 to 14.5 million in the year 2010. China has the potential to replace it as the largest consumer in the region. Consumption of wood-based panels in China is projected to increase 50% from 1992 to 2010, from slightly under 8 million m³ to more than 12 million. Other countries which will have tremendous increases in consumption include Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand.

Figure 27. Wood-based panels consumption in the Asia-Pacific and the world, 1962-2010.

Figure 28. Real world prices of wood-base panels, 1962-2010.

Veneer sheets

Table 101 shows the forecasts of world-wide veneer sheets consumption to 2010. Consumption of veneer sheets in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase from 2 million m³ in 1992 to 2.4 million in the year 2000 and 2.9 million in 2010. This represents an annual increase of 1.9% between 1992 and 2000 and 1.6% for the 2000-2010 period, down from the 6% growth for the 1982-92 period and much lower than the 87% growth during the period of 1962-92. The Asia-Pacific region's share of the world's total will rise from 36% in 1992 to 38% in the year 2000 and 39% in 2010, reflecting faster growth in consumption than the world average in the next two decades.

Table 101. Consumption of veneer sheets, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	41	45	50
China	128	250	314
Hong Kong	5	6	6
India	2	2	2
Indonesia	37	47	58
Japan	989	1076	1187
Korea Rep	0
Malaysia	438	570	712
Myanmar	0
New Zealand	34	37	42
Papua New Guinea	33	35	38
Philippines	18	20	24
Singapore	77	104	129
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	172	225	278
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	9	11	11
Asia Pacific	1983	2428	2850
Canada	310	335	368
Chile	16	20	24
European Union	1705	1909	2097
Russia	402	380	410
United States	102	106	115
Rest of the World	992	1214	1471
World	5510	6392	7336
Share	36%	38%	39%

Most countries within the region are expected to increase their domestic consumption of veneer sheets over the next twenty years. Among them, Japan, Malaysia and China will remain the top three consumers of veneer sheets. China's consumption is projected to increase from 128 thousand m³ in 1992 to about 314 thousand in the year 2010. Consumption of veneer sheets in Japan is likely to increase between 1992 and the year 2010, from 989 thousand m³ to 1.2 million. Similar to China and Japan, Malaysia will also experience a faster growth period, and nearly double its veneer sheets consumption by the year 2010. Besides these three countries, Thailand and Singapore will also be important consumers of veneer sheets in the Asia-Pacific region by the year 2010.

To meet the increasing requirements, the production of veneer sheets in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to rise accordingly, from 1.9 million m³ in 1992 to 2.1 million in 2000 and 2.2 million in 2010. The region's world share will decrease from 35% in 1992 to 34% in the year 2000 and 30% in 2010 (Table 102).

Table 102. Production of veneer sheets, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	29	38	45
China	7	0	0
Hong Kong
India	4	0	0
Indonesia	55	96	125
Japan	289	531	599
Korea Rep	0
Malaysia	1200	1227	1211
Myanmar	0
New Zealand	35	37	42
Papua New Guinea	33	35	38
Philippines	36	31	22
Singapore	65	101	126
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	167	89	0
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	11	0	0
Asia Pacific	1931	2185	2208
Canada	501	654	794
Chile	20	24	27
European Union	1313	1668	1997
Russia	400	379	409
United States		0	0
Rest of the World	1316	1498	1912
World	5481	6408	7346
Share	35%	34%	30%

Among all countries, Malaysia would remain the largest producer of veneer sheets in the region by the year 2010. Japan is expected to be the second largest producer of veneer sheets, and production is forecast to increase from 289 thousand m³ to 600 thousand in 2010. Over the same period, China will most likely not produce veneer sheets.

Total imports of veneer sheets by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise from 954 thousand m³ in 1992 to 1.0 million in the year 2000 and 1.3 million in 2010 (Table 103). But the expansion of imports would be slower with an average annual growth rate of 1% between 1992 and 2000 and 3% between 2000 and 2010, against 15% from 1982 to 1992. The region's world share will decrease from 42% in 1992 to 39% in 2010. The leading importer will still be Japan with 0.6 million m³, followed by China with 314 thousand and Thailand with 282 thousand.

Table 103. Imports of veneer sheets, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	13	8	5
China	125	251	314
Hong Kong	21	7	7
India		2	2
Indonesia	0	7	7
Japan	738	544	588
Korea Rep		15	10
Malaysia	3	3	12
Myanmar		0	0
New Zealand	1
Papua New Guinea
Philippines		3	10
Singapore	34	23	19
Solomon Islands	9
Thailand	9	138	282
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	1	19	20
Asia Pacific	954	1020	1277
Canada	35	108	97
Chile
European Union	392	311	207
Russia	3	2	1
United Stales	720	704	697
Rest of the World	145	1086	1028
World	2249	3229	3307
Share	42%	32%	39%

Table 104. Exports of veneer sheets, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	1
China	4	1	1
Hong Kong	16
India	2
Indonesia	18	56	75
Japan	38
Korea Rep	0
Malaysia	765	660	511
Myanmar	0
New Zealand	2
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	18	13	8
Singapore	22	20	16
Solomon Islands	4
Thailand	4	3	4
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	3	9	9
Asia Pacific	897	762	624
Canada	226	427	522
Chile	4	4	3
European Union	52	69	108
Russia	1
United States	618	599	582
Rest of the World	339	1369	1469
World	2137	3229	3307
Share	42%	24%	19%

As shown in Table 104, exports of veneer sheets by countries in the Asia-pacific region are projected to increase from 2.1 million m³ in 1992 to 3.3 million in 2010. The region's share of the world total exports would drop from 42% in 1992 to 19% by 2010. The main exporters in the region are Malaysia (511 thousand m³) and Indonesia (75 thousand).

The direction of trade in veneer sheets in the year 2010 are reported in Table 105. Japan and China would be the main importers, supplied mainly by Malaysia, Indonesia, and the rest of the world.

Table 105. Direction of trade in veneer, in thousand m³, 2010.

Plywood

Table 106 reports world-wide consumption of plywood from 1992 to 2010. Plywood consumption in the Asia-pacific region is expected to amount to 23 million m³ by the year 2000 and 27 million by the year 2010, up 19% and 40% respectively from 1992's level. The region's share of the world's total will rise from 40% in 1992 to 42% in the year 2000 and 43 % in 2010.

While consumption is projected to grow in all countries within the region, Japan, China, the Republic of Korea and Indonesia are expected to hold their leading positions of plywood consumption by 2010. The combined consumption of these four countries would account for nearly 90% of the total plywood consumption in the region, the same as in 1992.

China's consumption is projected to almost double between 1992 and 2010, from 4.6 million m³ to about 7.7 million. Consumption of plywood in Japan is likely to rise 20% over the same period, from 9.2 million m³ to 11 million. Indonesia, as the largest plywood producer in the region, may see its consumption increase from 1.5 million in 1992 to 2.3 in 2010. Similar to China, Japan and Indonesia, the Republic of Korea will also experience a faster growth in its plywood consumption by the year 2010.

Table 106. Consumption of plywood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	169	186	206
China	4642	6142	7701
Hong Kong	205	237	279
India	354	423	506
Indonesia	1465	1846	2278
Japan	9191	9994	11025
Korea Rep	1840	2358	2930
Malaysia	438	570	712
Myanmar	15	18	22
New Zealand	50	55	62
Papua New Guinea	13	14	15
Philippines	162	186	219
Singapore	166	214	266
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	208	260	322
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	117	127	146
Asia Pacific	19035	22628	26688
Canada	1667	1798	1979
Chile	36	45	54
European Union	5352	5906	6487
Russia	968	917	989
United States	17124	18407	20073
Rest of the World	3668	4224	5113
World	47850	53925	61383
Share	40%	42%	43%

Table 107 shows the production of plywood by country and territory for the period 1992-2010. Coupled with the increases in consumption, production of plywood in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to rise from 23 million m³ in 1992 to 27 million in the year 2000 and 30 million in 2010. The region's production will represent 50% of the world's total in the year 2000 and 48% in 2010, up slightly from 47% in 1992.

Among all countries, Indonesia and Japan will continue to be the top producers in the region, followed by China which is expected to replace Malaysia as the third largest producer of plywood in the region by the year 2010. Indonesia's production is forecast to grow from 10 million m³ in 1992 to 12 million by 2010. Japan is expected to improve its self-sufficiency in plywood, and production is forecast to increase from 6 million m³ to 9 million for the period 1992-2010, and to account for 81% of domestic consumption, up from 65% in 1992. Over the same time, China's plywood production would increase from 2 million m³ to 2.5 million by the year 2010.

The Asia-Pacific region has been a net exporter of plywood during the last thirty years. This trend is likely to continue over the next two decades. The region's imports are projected to increase 13% from 8.4 million m³ in 1992 to 9.5 million in the year 2010, while exports will rise only 6% over the same period, due mainly to the accelerating consumption within the region, meanwhile the region's share of world plywood imports is expected to rise from 56% in 1992 and 57% in 2010, and the share of world exports to decline from 79% to 76% between 1992 and 2010 (Tables 108 and 109).

Table 107. Production of plywood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	107	139	176
China	2078	2250	2500
Hong Kong	12	92	214
India	360	420	493
Indonesia	10100	11387	12227
Japan	5954	7653	8981
Korea Rep	948	1511	2044
Malaysia	2100	2189	2080
Myanmar	15	17	16
New Zealand	77	95	101
Papua New Guinea	13	14	15
Philippines	247	242	245
Singapore	280	426	418
Solomon Islands
Thailand	170	207	233
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	68	126	26
Asia Pacific	22529	26767	29769
Canada	1838	2055	2386
Chile	57	66	66
European Union	2331	3552	5414
Russia	1221	1099	1146
United States	17109	17756	18349
Rest of the World	2865	2633	4251
World	47950	53927	61381
Share	47%	50%	48%

Table 108. Imports of plywood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	65	48	29
China	2768	3975	5251
Hong Kong	637	643	484
India	7	3	13
Indonesia	0	1	2
Japan	3278	2341	2044
Korea Rep	953	847	886
Malaysia	8	8	30
Myanmar		2	6
New Zealand	2
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines		3	10
Singapore	547	539	458
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	41	55	90
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	60	207	200
Asia Pacific	8366	8671	9502
Canada	224	207	154
Chile
European Union	3019	2693	1624
Russia	3	2	1
United States	1572	1899	2516
Rest of the World	1797	3556	2862
World	14981	17027	16657
Share	56%	51%	57%

Table 109. Exports of plywood, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	3
China	204	83	50
Hong Kong	444	498	418
India	13
Indonesia	8635	9542	9951
Japan	41
Korea Rep	61
Malaysia	1670	1627	1398
Myanmar	0
New Zealand	29	40	39
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	85	59	35
Singapore	661	752	610
Solomon Islands
Thailand	3	2	1
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	11	206	80
Asia Pacific	11860	12807	12584
Canada	395	463	560
Chile	21	21	13
European Union	230	339	551
Russia	256	184	157
United States	1557	1248	792
Rest of the World	764	1966	2000
World	15083	17027	16657
Share	79%	75%	76%

The projected leading importers include China with 5.3 million m³, Japan with 2.0 million the Republic of Korea with 0.9 million. Of those three countries, Japan and Republic of Korea would experience a declining trend in imports of plywood, mostly hardwood, from 1992 to 2010. Japanese imports would decline by 38%, while those of China are expected to almost double.

Indonesia would continue to be the main exporter with nearly ten million m³ of plywood exports in the year 2010, which represents about 79% of the region total exports, followed by Malaysia with 1.4 million. The projected increase in exports is 15% for Indonesia and the projected decrease in exports is 16% for Malaysia between 1992 and 2010. The exports from these two countries are expected to account for 90% of the total exports of the Asia-Pacific region.

Table 110 shows the projected direction of trade in plywood in the year 2010. Compared to the 1992 levels (Table 44), Japanese imports of plywood from Indonesia are expected to decrease, while imports of China from Indonesia would increase much. Outside the Asia-Pacific region, the United States and the European Union will continue to be the largest importers of Asia-Pacific plywood, and the volumes are expected to increase from 1.2 million m³ to 1.9 million for the United States, and decrease from 1.1 million m³ to 587 thousand for the European Union, between 1992 and 2010.

Exports of North American plywood to the Asia-Pacific region are projected to increase from 96 thousand m³ in 1992 to 155 thousand in the year 2010. The main destination will be Japan (99 thousand m³).

Table 110. Direction of trade in plywood, in thousand m³, 2010.

Particle board

Consumption of particle board in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase from 4.5 million m³ in 1992 to 5.0 million in the year 2000 and 5.4 million in 2010 (Table 111). This represents an annual increase of 2% between 1992 and 2000 and 1% for the 2000-2010 period, down sharply from the 13% growth for the 1982-92, The Asia-Pacific region's share of the world's total will rise from 9% in 1992 to 10% in 2010.

China, Japan and the Republic of Korea will be the top three consumers. China's consumption is projected to increase from 1.4 million m³ in 1992 to about 1.6 million in the year 2010. Consumption in Japan is likely to decrease slightly between 1992 and 2010, from 1.2 million m³ to 1.1 million. Australia and the Republic of Korea will experience a faster growth in their particle board consumption by the year 2010.

Production of particle board in most countries is expected to grow in concert with consumption (Table 112). The production of particle board in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow from 4.0 million m³ in 1992 to 4.8 million in the year 2000 and 5.0 million by the year 2010. The region's world share is also to rise from 8% in 1992 to 10% and 9% in 2000 and 2010. Ranked by 2010 production levels, the major producers of particle board will be China with 1.4 million m³, Japan with 1.0 million and Australia with 0.9 million. Of them, Japan and Australia are expected to be mostly self-sufficient with production-consumption ratios of 94% and 98%, respectively.

Table 111. Consumption of particle board, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	658	730	884
China	1357	1327	1596
Hong Kong	2	2	2
India	32	21	17
Indonesia	234	262	346
Japan	1174	1267	1090
Korea Rep	727	968	1007
Malaysia	100	118	130
Myanmar
New Zealand	91	97	85
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	3	3	3
Singapore	0
Solomon Islands
Thailand	69	82	87
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	69	128	162
Asia Pacific	4516	5003	5409
Canada	1367	1455	1394
Chile	137	144	149
European Union	22432	24396	27928
Russia	4427	3454	3895
United States	8732	7985	8830
Rest of the World	6460	6292	7480
World	48071	48730	55085
Share	9%	10%	10%

Table 112. Production of particle board, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	660	692	862
China	1202	1176	1357
Hong Kong
India	32	18	4
Indonesia	350	483	558
Japan	1050	1208	1022
Korea Rep	276	632	638
Malaysia	150	167	156
Myanmar
New Zealand	162	201	183
Papua New Guinea
Philippines	6	3	0
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Thailand	65	82	87
Rest or the Asia-Pacific	69	101	138
Asia Pacific	4022	4763	5004
Canada	3256	3876	4650
Chile	240	240	206
European Union	21725	24295	28467
Russia	4460	3480	3924
United States	7207	5924	5816
Rest of the World	7164	6189	7042
World	48074	48766	55107
Share	8%	10%	9%

The Asia-Pacific region has been a net importer of particle board since the 1980s. This trend is not expected to change over the next two decades. The total imports by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to remain 800 thousand m³ level between 1992 and 2010 (Table 113), compared to 118% from 1982 to 1992. This is mainly due to increases in domestic production in the region. The world share of the Asia-Pacific will decrease from 15% in 1992 to 13% in 2010. The leading importers will include the Republic of Korea with 370 and China with 241 thousand.

Table 113. Imports of particle board, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	28	37	22
China	158	154	241
Hong Kong	40	36	36
India	0	3	13
Indonesia		1	2
Japan	125	59	67
Korea Rep	451	336	370
Malaysia		1	4
Myanmar		0	0
New Zealand	0
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines		2	5
Singapore	54	35	22
Solomon Islands
Thailand	4
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	8	28	25
Asia Pacific	868	691	807
Canada	173	115	85
Chile
European Union	6284	696	420
Russia	3	2	1
United States	1843	2466	3375
Rest of the World	625	1224	1487
World	5649	5193	6175
Share	15%	13%	13%

As shown in Table 114, the exports of particle board by countries in the Asia-Pacific region are projected to remain stable from 1992 to 2010. The region's share of the world total exports would hold stable around 6-8% for the same period. The main exporters in the region are Indonesia (214 thousand m³) and New Zealand (98 thousand).

The directions of trade forecasts for particle board in the year 2010 (Table 115) show the Republic of Korea as main importer of particle board both from the Asia-Pacific region and from other parts of the world, as in 1992 (Table 43). The United States is projected to remain the leading supplier of particle board to the Asia-Pacific markets, with 229 thousand m³ in the year 2010.

Table 114. Exports of particle board, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	30
China	3	2	1
Hong Kong	43	34	34
India	0
Indonesia	116	222	214
Japan	1
Korea Rep	0
Malaysia	50	50	30
Myanmar
New Zealand	71	104	98
Papua New Guinea
Philippines	3	2	2
Singapore	62
Solomon Islands
Thailand
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	8	1	1
Asia Pacific	387	415	379
Canada	2062	2536	3341
Chile	103	95	57
European Union	421	594	958
Russia	36	27	29
United States	612	405	361
Rest of the World	1143	1121	1049
World	4764	5193	6175
Share	8%	8%	6%

Table 115. Direction of trade in particle board, in thousand m³, 2010.

Exporters Importers	Indonesia	Asia Pacific	Canada	European Union	United States	Rest of the World	Total
Korea Rep	31	31	28	19	134	158	370
China	102	102	5	39	75	20	241
Japan	8	8	40	7	12		67
Hong Kong	1	1			7	27	35
Singapore	18	18		3	1		22
Asia Pacific	160	160	73	68	229	205	735
Canada	1	1		2	82		85
European Union	5	5	15		8	392	420
United States			2896	76		403	3375
Rest of the World	30	30	357	809	41		1237
Total	196	196	3341	955	360	1000	5852

Fibreboard

Forecasts of world-wide fibreboard consumption to the year 2010 are given in Table 116. The Asia-Pacific region's consumption is expected to increase from 3.8 million m³ in 1992 to 4.1 million in the year 2000 and 5.0 million in 2010. This implies an annual increase of 1.8% between 1992 and 2010, down from 11% between 1982 and 1992. The Asia-Pacific region's share of the world's total will rise from 19% in 1992 to 22% in the year 2000 and 23% in 2010.

Table 116. Consumption of fibreboard, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	76	83	102
China	1777	1857	2586
Hong Kong	8	8	10
India	45	31	24
Indonesia	1	2	2
Japan	1055	1172	1212
Korea Rep	418	475	540
Malaysia	3	3	3
Myanmar
New Zealand	164	208	202
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	36	35	45
Singapore	46	65	77
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	139	169	175
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	20	24	31
Asia Pacific	3788	4133	5008
Canada	545	606	567
Chile	118	139	134
European Union	2917	3227	3778
Russia	3655	3040	3395
United States	6658	5960	6781
Rest of the World	1987	1947	2346
World	19664	19053	22008
Share	19%	22%	23%

China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are expected to remain the top three consumers of fibreboard. China's consumption is projected to increase from 1.8 million m³ in 1992 to about 2.6 million in the year 2010. Consumption of fibreboard in Japan is likely to rise from 1.1m³ to 1.2 million between 1992 and the year 2010. The Republic of Korea will also experience a faster growth of its fibreboard consumption by the year 2010. The combined consumption of those three countries will account for more than 87% of the total regional demand for fibreboard.

Table 117 reports the production of fibreboard by country and territory for the period 1992-2010. For the Asia-Pacific, production is projected to increase from 3.6 million m³ in 1992 to 4.9 million in 2010. The region's world share will be up moderately from 18% in 1992 to 21% in 2000 and 22% in 2010.

Among all countries, China will lead in fibreboard production over the next two decades, followed by Japan and New Zealand. China is expected to be largely self-sufficient in supply, and production is forecast to increase from 1.5 million m³ to 2.0 million in 2010. Japan's fibreboard production is likely to increase more than 22%, from 929 thousand m³ in 1992 to 1.1 million by the year 2010. For New Zealand, the production is expected to reach 0.6 million m³ by 2010.

The region's imports (Tables 118) are expected to increase between 1992 and 2010, from 722 thousand m³ to 1 million. The region's share of the world's total, in turn, would decrease from 46% in 1992 to 32% in 2010. The largest importer of fibreboard in the region in 2010 would be China (568 thousand). The imports of China are expected to account for about 56% of the region's total. Other important importers of fibreboard in the region include the Republic of Korea with 96 m³ thousand, Japan with 79 thousand, Singapore with 77 thousand and Australia with 63 thousand.

Table 117. Production of fibreboard, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	99	174	343
China	1482	1486	2018
Hong Kong
India	46	28	11
Indonesia	1	56	54
Japan	929	1077	1132
Korea Rep	354	390	443
Malaysia		0	0
Myanmar
New Zealand	524	591	631
Papua New Guinea
Philippines	36	33	38
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Thailand	148	189	186
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	16	0	5
Asia Pacific	3635	4023	4863
Canada	672	842	931
Chile	161	175	156
European Union	2596	2892	3968
Russia	3726	3096	3457
United States	6880	6148	6802
Rest of the World	2338	1876	1833
World	20008	19053	22009
Share	18%	21%	22%

The region exports are projected to grow but remain small, accounting for about 27% of the global exports in 2010. New Zealand will continue to be the largest exporters within the region. It is expected that New Zealand's fibreboard exports will increase from slightly less than 360 thousand m³ in 1992 to 430 thousand by the year 2010 (Table 119). While exports from Australia are likely to more than double from 118 to 304 thousand m³ in twenty years, Indonesia's exports are expected to increase to 54 thousand m³ by the year 2010, from almost none in 1992.

The direction of trade in fibreboard in the year 2010 for the major importers and exporters are shown in Table 120. The major suppliers within the region will continue to be New Zealand and Indonesia as mentioned above. The main destinations of the exports from those two countries have been and will still be the countries in the same region. The largest importer for both New Zealand and Indonesia exports is China, with about one-half of the region's total imports of fibreboard from the two countries. Outside the region, United States is expected to continue to be the largest supplier of fibreboard to the Asia-Pacific markets, with 334 thousand m³ in 2010.

Table 118. Imports of fibreboard, in thousand m³, 1992-2010.

Country	1992	2000	2010
Australia	95	96	63
China	295	371	568
Hong Kong	32	72	71
India		3	13
Indonesia		1	3
Japan	155	96	79
Korea Rep	64	85	96
Malaysia	3	3	3
Myanmar		0	0
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea	0
Philippines	0	2	7
Singapore	57	65	77
Solomon Islands	0
Thailand	17
Rest of the Asia-Pacific	4	43	37
Asia Pacific	722	837	1017
Canada	150	96	70
Chile	0
European Union	197	718	433
Russia	2	2	1
United States	270	346	496
Rest of the World	217	910	1203
World	1558	2908	3219
Share	46%	29%	32%