CHAPTER 2: TYPOLOGY OF PLANNING METHODS AND TOOLS

2.1 Methods to Clarify Issues and Problems
2.2 Methods to Examine Spatial and Inter-Sectoral Relationships
2.3 Methods for Social, Environmental, and Economic Analysis
2.4 Methods to Discuss the Future

Strategic planning relies on a number of methods and tools to define and interpret information for comparing alternatives. This chapter identifies selected planning methods according to four purposes:

1. Methods to clarify issues and problems. - All planning teams need creativity and analytical rigor to define problems and compare options. Several structured techniques promote both creativity and rigor.

2. Methods to examine spatial and inter-sectoral relationships. - Strategic planning for forests has to account for cross-cutting functional and spatial relationships. The methods for this rely on maps and area planning, together with computer simulations and models in regional economic geography.

3. Methods for social, environmental, and economic analysis. - The planning team needs to anticipate the social, environmental, and economic impacts of its proposed goals and strategies. Several frameworks are available for this.

4. Methods to discuss the future. -Planning is about forecasting the future and deciding how to prepare for it. The planning team should practice and learn from techniques of "futures analysis."

Planning tools do not have to be quantitative to be useful. Quantitative models can be important, but they are not the only or best techniques to promote the "systems approach" in thinking about a problem and its possible solutions. Box 10 presents criteria to help an agency evaluate the appropriateness of different planning methods and tools, whether alone or in combination. Let these criteria guide its selection.

Insufficient application of planning tools leads to disorganized thinking. The discipline of the tools keeps the planning focused and organized. But an agency wants the tools to serve your process, not to control it. It is often easy to allow the tools to become ends in themselves. Especially in the industrialized countries, some expensive efforts in forest planning have failed exactly for this reason.

2.1 Methods to Clarify Issues and Problems

All organizations, private and public, employ a variety of methods to clarify issues and problems. An agency needs to develop competence in selecting these methods, and in assisting planning groups to use them. This can be important for building up working relationships within the planning team, with the advisory committees, and with the interest groups.

Box 10. Criteria for Evaluating the Appropriateness of Planning Tools
Criteria	Appropriateness
Relevance	In what ways does this method help an agency answer important questions and focus on key issues?
Acceptability	How well is the method developed, and to what extent is it accepted as a standard instrument? (In own country's context)
Cost	How much time and how many resources does an agency need to adapt and apply this method?
Data Requirements	Does an agency have - or will it be able to generate - the data for a reliable application of the method?
Breadth and Versatility	To what extent can the method represent cultural, intrinsic, aesthetic, and other non-market aspects of forests?
Distributional Aspects	Does the method help address gains and losses: (i) across the society, and (ii) between present and future generations?
Communications	To what extent can ordinary people understand this method?
Sustainability	What are the chances that you will continue to use this method (and therefore to refine and improve it in the future)?
Source: Adapted from Nilsson-Axberg (1993), Forestry Sector and Forest Plantations Sub-Sector Planning in South and South-East Asia, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SIMS Report 34, Uppsala, p. 145.

The best sources of problem-solving tools for an agency are books, articles, and videos in management science (see Appendix II, Part C). These are increasingly available in even the remotest places of the world - and in an increasing number of languages. Here, we briefly mention some of the classical methods that your planning team is most likely to need:

· Brainstorming. - Brainstorming is generally superior to conventional committee meetings for rapid generation of creative ideas. Suppose that an improvement goal has been defined, such as to increase the effectiveness of an agency's agroforestry program. In brainstorming, team members make rapid suggestions on how to achieve this. Somebody writes down all of the suggestions (e.g., on a large sheet of paper) - even those that at first may seem strange or impractical. All ideas are acceptable, and nobody is allowed to criticize another person's suggestion. The agency's aim is to quickly produce ideas which only later will be evaluated for feasibility, cost, and other decision criteria. In the end, it will arrive at a smaller set of proposals after the initial ideas are modified, combined, or eliminated (Worksheet 12). Box 11 summarizes three variations of this method.

Box 11. Variations of "Brainstorming" to Generate Creative Ideas.
1. Call Out Ideas Freely in Any Order
Each person calls out as many ideas as possible in random order. Each idea is recorded where everyone can see it. Continue until the time limit is reached, or until nobody has anything to add.	· Advantages: Spontaneous and fast: no restrictions.
	· Disadvantages: Quiet persons may not speak out; a few powerful persons may dominate; the process can be chaotic if everyone talks at the same time.
2. Call Out Ideas in Orderly Sequence	· Advantages: Everyone has the chance to participate; it is more difficult for powerful personalities to control the session.
Each person presents an idea in turn (e.g., by going systematically around a table). If a person has nothing to add, the person says "pass." Continue until the time limit is reached, or until nobody has anything to add.	· Disadvantages: People can be frustrated while waiting for their turn.
3. Each Person Writes Ideas on Paper	· Advantages: All contributions are anonymous; ideas can be recorded in an organized way.
Each person writes down as many ideas as possible on a piece of paper. The papers are collected, and the ideas are written where everybody can see them.	· Disadvantages: Creativity is lost because persons are not able to react to the ideas suggested by others.
Source: Adapted from James H. Saylor, 1992, TQM Field Manual, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, p. 80-82.

· Problem Statement Guidelines. - Sometimes an agency's improvement goals are vague and poorly defined. It applies problem statement guidelines to sharpen the definitions of any problem into its what, when, where, who, why, and how dimensions. Each team member is asked to state the problem according to these guidelines. In a subsequent step, the agency compares these statements to make a final problem statement acceptable to the group as a whole (Worksheet 13).

· Strengths and Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT). - In relation to a given goal or strategy, an agency wants to take advantage of its strengths and opportunities. At the same time, it has to be aware of weaknesses and threats that will impede its progress. The SWOT framework helps the agency think about this in a direct and systematic way (Worksheet 14).

· Problem Trees. - for complex issues, an agency systematically identifies causes and effects with the help of a problem tree. A problem tree is a diagram of boxes and arrows that show causes at a low level, leading to effects at a higher level (Worksheet 15). The causes are the roots of the tree, and the effects are the fruits. The team lists different problems, and then connects them with arrows to show linkages. It repeats this several times until the problem tree is complete and logical. The problem tree directs the attention of the team to fundamental, deep-rooted explanations. Box 12 presents an example.

Box 12. Example of a Problem Tree Insufficient Cooperation Between NGOs and The Forestry Agency in Policies and Actions for Forest Conservation   Source: Adapted from FAO, 1994, Formulation of Agricultural and Rural Investment Projects: Planning Tools, Case Studies, and Exercises, Volume 2 (Reconnaissance), Rome, Italy, Tool No. 5.

· Logical Framework. - The logical framework encourages planners to specify cause-and-effect relationships, and to explicitly state all assumptions. At the top of the framework is a clearly defined goal. Lower levels of the framework specify the why, what, and how to achieve this goal (Worksheet 16). For these linkages to be possible, the internal logic of planning must be sound, and the assumptions of the agency must be valid. Box 13 illustrates for a strategy to reduce depletion pressures on fuelwood supplies.

Box 13. An Example of a Logical Framework
	Summary	Indicators	Means to Verify
Main Goal
To reduce depletion pressures on fuelwood supplies	Reduce fuelwood removals from upland pine forests, South Region.	No. of headloads removed	Rapid appraisals; spot checks; periodic surveys.
Why?
(1) To lessen women's work;	(1) Fuelwood collection is time- consuming;	(1) Number of hours per week per woman for fuelwood collection;	(1) Focus groups; time studies;
(2) To aid forest regeneration and growth	(2) Trees are mutilated and regeneration is poor	(2) Field evidence of damaged trees and regenerating trees	(2) Walk-through spot checks; forest inventories.
What?
Fuelwood is more available and better utilized	Increase supply and decrease demand	Reduce average walking distance per headload; fewer headloads per week; smaller size of headloads.	Interviews; time studies; physical measurements (mass and volume).
How?
(1) Grow energy trees in home gardens;	(1) Promote clean- burning species;	(1) Plant 5,000 trees per year of species X, Y, and Z, starting in year 1998;	(1) Walk-by inspections and household surveys;
(2) Increase the adoption of cooking stoves;	(2) Only 1 in 50 families uses them now;	(2) Increase to 2 in 50 families by year 2001;	(2) Household surveys;
(3) Seek kerosene subsidies	(3) Debate through political means	(3) Reduce kerosene price 25% by 1999.	(3) Market studies.

· Force-Field Analysis. - Most goals are characterized by restraining forces that hold back an agency and driving forces that push it forward. In force-field analysis, the agency identifies these forces, and it assesses its degree of influence to control them. If the agency knows which forces are holding it back and which can carry it forward, then the planning focuses on how to reduce the former and exploit the latter. The agency rates the different forces for both importance and the extent of its control over them. The agency concentrates its actions on the high-rated forces (Worksheet 17). An example is presented in Box 14 for improving success in afforestation and reforestation.

Box 14. An Example of a Force-Field Analysis
The force-field is a diagram of driving forces carrying the agency to the right ("progress"), and restraining forces pushing the agency to the left ("obstacles"). The agency is now at position A, and it wants to be at Position B in the future. Figure
In the following example of afforestation and reforestation, the agency lists all the driving forces and restraining forces. It rates each force by its importance (i.e., amount of impact) and by its degree of control over it. Let's suppose that these scales are measured from "1" (low) to "5" (high), and suppose that the ratings of the agency give the following results:
	Importance	Your Control	Total
Driving Forces
Rising prices of wood products	2	2	4
Genetically-improved planting stock	2	4	6
Improved operational planning	4	5	9
Increasing public support	2	2	5
Restraining Forces
Decreasing agency budget
Irregular annual precipitation	2	2	5
Poor procedures for hiring and paying field workers	5	1	6
Losses to fires and grazing	4	4	8
	5	3	8
If the agency can find some forces that explain others, the effectiveness of its actions will be greater. For example, suppose that "improved operational planning" can reduce "losses to fires and grazing" as well as "poor procedures for hiring and paying field workers." Because it has these cross-impacts, the agency gives special attention to "operational planning."

· Comparison Matrix. - Frequently, an agency needs to rank several options in a systematic way to arrive at a single choice. The comparison matrix does this through one-by-one comparisons, indicating how any one option (Choice A) compares with all others (Choices B, C, ...Z). The agency constructs a frequency table which shows how many times A, B, C, and Z are rated superior to the other options (Box 15 and Worksheet 18).

Box 15. The Comparison Matrix
The comparison matrix lays out the options of the agency in vertical and horizontal rows. Working in a group or as individuals, the planning team makes one-by-one comparisons among the intersecting pairs. This is a systematic approach to choose among several options, such as when the agency needs to compare programs that have different elements in them. For illustration, suppose that an agency has the following program options and the following decision criteria:
	Social Equity		Annual Expenditure		Biodiversity		Political Acceptability
Option A	High		Very Large		+ +		+ +
Option B	Neutral		Large		+ +		+ +
Option C	High		Modest		+ + +		+
Option D	Poor		Large		+ + +		?
Construct the Comparison Matrix:
		Option B		Option C		Option D
Option A		Choose A		Choose C		Choose A
Option B				Choose C		Choose B
Option C						Choose C
In these hypothetical comparisons. Option C is preferred three times. The next best choice is Option A, selected twice.

· Role Playing. - An agency wants members of its planning team to interpret problems and feel emotions in the same way as its actual interest groups. The use of role playing can be surprisingly effective for this. The agency assigns different team members to "act" as if they are personalities among its interest groups (Worksheet 19). Role playing is never a substitute for genuine participation by these groups. But it can be used within the planning team to widen perceptions, compare options, and prepare for comments by the real personalities.

2.2 Methods to Examine Spatial and Inter-Sectoral Relationships

Some of the most important information for strategic planning comes from good maps and land-use plans. To the extent an agency relies on maps and land-use plans, it is likely to need the collaboration of other government agencies. This can be an excellent opportunity for inter-agency and "inter-sectoral" dialogue. In addition to maps and land-use plans, the agency may decide to explore spatial and inter-sectoral aspects with the help of simulation models and regional economic models:

· Maps and Land-Use Plans. - Worksheet 20 indicates several types of information that the agency may want presented in the form of maps. Simple techniques, such as overlaying different kinds of maps to show a composite picture of selected areas, can be perfectly adequate in strategic planning. Seldom does an agency need Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to cover all areas, particularly during the early stages of identifying problems and issues. Rather, it relies on simpler and less expensive methods. The agency considers GIS only where detailed analyses will be warranted because of sensitive issues or particularly important land-use tradeoffs.

· Computerized Simulations. - Some computerized simulations show how land uses will change because of population growth and migration, agricultural expansion, and so on. These simulations can be helpful for discussing where and how fast forests are likely to be converted to non-forest uses. Some simulation models illustrate environmental impacts of forest conversion at a regional scale. Others are able to project future demands for forest products and services. An increasing number of these models will become available as computer software continues to improve, and as more packages are adapted for international use. At the same time, an agency wants its planning team to be aware of the many intangible and non-quantitative details that simulations cannot address.

· Models in Economic Geography. - Regional models are helpful for indicating how different kinds of investments-such as in forest plantations, tourist facilities, etc. - will create demands for credit, transport services, infrastructure, and employment. To explore these issues, an agency may want to employ input-output models, regional trade flow models, and production linkage studies. Other models show how populations locate in response to economic and social "growth poles." These and related approaches are described in the references on regional economic development (see Appendix II, Part B).

2.3 Methods for Social, Environmental, and Economic Analysis

All planned changes to use and conserve forests aim to stabilize or improve social, environmental, and economic conditions. Good strategic planning has to anticipate the type and magnitude of impacts to be expected. The principal techniques for this are social assessment, environmental assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. These approaches are increasingly mixed and integrated, e.g., benefit-cost analysis of environmental changes, social assessment of capital investments, and so on:

Social Assessments. - Social assessments have many forms, ranging from ethnographic studies to formal surveys. Some ethnographic studies may take a trained anthropologist several years to complete. Formal surveys can also be time-consuming and expensive, especially if they attempt to include hundreds of people. For these reasons, an increasing number of practical cases aim at an intermediate level of analysis, such as "rapid rural appraisal" (RRA) and "participatory rural appraisal" (PRA). In RRA and PRA, you rely on a combination of interviews, direct observations, and small-group discussions to identify social issues and problems (see Worksheet 21). For most medium and long-term strategic planning, this should be adequate. In other cases, your initial findings will suggest that you need wider coverage or deeper analysis, leading to subsequent stages of fact finding.

· Environmental Assessments - Ideally, environmental assessments provide an agency with a complete ex ante forecast of biophysical impacts, their distribution in space and time, and an analysis of the best ways to mitigate negative impacts. But in practice, it is unlikely to achieve this within the time frame of the planning of the agency. Rather, the agency may need to be satisfied with checklists that state possible impacts (Worksheet 22). In truly complex or controversial cases, the planning team has to allow for the time and costs of a specialized environmental impact assessment (EIA). Manuals on EIA are available from most of the United Nations agencies, international development banks, and international aid agencies. These can be satisfactory if an agency adapts them for the circumstances of its own country. Moreover, an increasing number of national governments are writing their own EIA policies and procedures.

· Benefit-Cost Analysis. - An agency wants its strategic actions to be measured by standards that are financial and economic, e.g., through the application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA). For each major component of a strategic plan, the agency should indicate what levels of investments and recurrent expenditures will be needed. Moreover, the agency tries to establish measures of private and social profitability to guide selection among planning options. This demands a fairly complete set of prices and values, now and into the future. This is almost always a large task, but is generally worth the effort if the planned investments are large. The planning team needs to understand the difference between financial vs. economic BCA, as well as techniques for extending BCA to cover environmental benefits and costs (Worksheet 23).

Seldom an agency is able to completely estimate the social, environmental, financial, and economic impacts of a strategic plan in quantitative terms. Even if possible, it has no way to combine these dimensions in one measure, e.g., monetary value. In principle, planners solve this dilemma through multi-criteria analysis that uses mathematical programming. But in practice, multi-criteria analysis is a sophisticated planning tool that few of the interest groups and team members will be able to understand.

On the other hand, almost everyone should be able to understand a matrix for trade-off analysis. The agency accomplishes this by ranking proposed actions according to different evaluation criteria (Box 16). This can be another way to build participation into planning, and to favor a "systems approach" in comparing alternatives.

Box 16. The Trade-Off Matrix
The trade-off matrix helps the agency choose among alternatives when it has multiple decision criteria to consider. (See Box 15 and Worksheet 18 for another approach to multi-criteria decisions.) In the trade-off matrix, it ranks proposed actions according to each criterion. In the example below, the ''total score" is the horizontal unweighted sum of the rankings.
Strategy or Option	Social Ranking*	Environmental Ranking*	Economic Ranking*	Total Score**
A	2	1	3	6
B	1	3	4	8
C	5	4	5	14
D	3	5	2	10
E	4	2	1	7
* 1 = highest; 5 = lowest
** You may choose to weight some criteria more heavily than others. Suppose that you want to emphasize social more than environmental and economic factors. Depending on the weights you apply, this may favor Strategy B over Strategy A.
Source: Adapted from Yves C. Dubé, 1995, "Macroeconomic Aspects of Forestry Sector Planning", p. 69 in D.G. Brand (ed.). Forestry Sector Planning: Proceedings of a Meeting Held 18-22 September 1994 in Anchorage, Alaska. Canadian Forest Service/Food and Agriculture Organization, Ottawa, Canada.

To conclude, the social, environmental, and economic tools an agency selects for its strategic planning should be determined by:

· the importance and sensitivity of a proposed policy, program, or project;

· the time and budget for conducting the analysis;

· the technical and administrative capacity within the agency - or through the help of external assistance - to undertake the analysis; and

· the extent to which the interest groups will accept the analysis as useful and valid.

2.4 Methods to Discuss the Future

Planners are forecasters. In every country, events are occurring that will change the way people ask and answer the question, "Trees and forests for whom and for what?" In the planning, an agency is expected to anticipate these questions and answers, and to assess what consequences they have for its improvement goals and strategies. An agency will be greatly assisted in this if it can apply a few techniques of forecasting and futures analysis. The techniques help the agency add rigor to judgments that otherwise remain less than fully developed.

There are many books, articles, and training manuals on forecasting techniques. The approaches range from highly quantitative to purely qualitative:

· Trend extrapolation. - In this approach, an agency extends past and current observations into the future, usually through quantitative relationships. For example, if the agency knows fuelwood consumption per capita, and if you also have a forecast of population growth, then you are able to project the growth of aggregate fuelwood consumption into the future. At the same time, the agency needs to identify what may happen because of possible new trend components (e.g., changes in subsidies for petroleum-based fuels). In more complex situations, the demand for one or more forest products is related to several explanatory variables simultaneously (e.g., population, income, prices of substitute materials, and others). Similarly, an agency can attempt to project deforestation rates, diffusion of agroforestry technologies, etc., in relation to their explanatory variables. These types of projections require reliable data sets and experts capable in advanced statistical methods, both of which may be limiting in many situations.

· Scenario construction. - Here an agency uses perspectives from different people to explore alternative states of the future. The agency asks individuals to describe how they visualize future political, cultural, economic, and technological dimensions of a particular issue related to forests. It then applies qualitative judgments to separate likely scenarios from those which are less plausible. In another type of scenario construction, it asks individuals to imagine the future they want (i.e., in reference to a particular issue), and then to describe a series of events and conditions to achieve it.

· Historical analogy. - Sometimes an agency asks its planning team to look backwards to think about what may happen in the future. For example, it can ask everyone to view its interest groups in an ongoing historical struggle of forces and counterforces, goals and constraints, and actions and reactions. In a second kind of analysis, the agency asks its planners to describe a particular problem about forests and humans in terms of past and current social dilemmas. Then, what could happen in the future that would help the country to solve these dilemmas? In both cases, the agency is looking for historical patterns that signal that an important transformation is possible or even likely. (Also, see "force-field analysis" in section 2.1.)

· Delphi and other techniques based on collective opinions. - Several forecasting techniques rely on group interactions to arrive at a collective opinion. In the Delphi method, different persons respond individually and confidentially to a sequence of questions. At each stage in the sequence, the results from the preceding questions are revealed to everyone. Then, each member of the group is given the opportunity to change his or her assumptions and predictions. Because these changes are made confidentially, each individual is free to change a previous position without being influenced by personal relationships. In a variation of this method, the discussions are open and shared. However, this sometimes gives dominant personalities a great amount of influence, e.g., by getting other individuals to "agree" with them.

Note that all forecasts of the future apply the same basic approach. They identify patterns of behavior, and explore how these patterns will change or stay the same as a basis for anticipating what will happen in the future. In planning, an agency is doing its best to make the future "knowable" by carefully studying Factors A, B, and C that lead to Result Z. The agency uses theories and concepts to predict the future in relation to the present and past. In this sense, the planning team needs to appreciate that good forecasting is a science-it is not wild and undisciplined guessing.

An agency should be alert to books, articles, and videos for forecasting approaches that may be helpful. Particularly because of computer simulations, forecasting models are able to represent increasing numbers of variables and relationships. However, an agency should never accept these in the form of "black boxes." Somebody has to reason that A, B, and C lead to Z. For this, the methods of trend extrapolation, scenario construction, historical analogy, Delphi technique, panel of experts, etc., are basic and indispensable. They require that planners apply structured thinking, even if not always with the assistance of computers. The challenge of the agency is to practice these techniques, and to learn how to adapt them to meet its objectives (see Worksheet 24).