FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998 -

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ETHIOPIA


Area: 976 680 sq.km
Climate: Northern coastal area and lowlands in the south and the east are semi-arid to arid; the rest of the country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population: 58.652 million (1998 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 110 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops: Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year: January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 69 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Harvesting of the 1998 main "Meher" cereal crop is underway. Overall, prospects are favourable reflecting abundant rains during the growing season, particularly in northern parts. Production is anticipated to recover from last year's level which was affected by excessive rains at harvest. However, erratic precipitation in the south-western parts may result in localized reduced harvest.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country recently to appraise the 1998 Meher production and estimate food aid requirements in 1999 is finalizing its report. Food aid pledges in 1998 amounted to 719 000 tonnes of cereals, of which 567 000 tonnes have been distributed up to the end of November.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 950 - 5 600 6 550
Normal Imports 700 5 75 780
of which: Structural food aid 380 5 65 450
1998 Domestic Availability 1714 3 6 797 8 514
1997 Production (rice in paddy terms) 1714 4 6 667 8 385
1997 Production (rice in milled terms) 1714 3 6 667 8 384
Possible stock drawdown - - 130 130
1998 Utilization 2275 18 6 972 9 265
Food Use 1989 18 5 456 7 463
of which: local purchase requirement 24 - 88 112
Non-food use 286 - 1 381 1 667
Exports or Re-exports - - 135 135
Possible stock build up - - - -
1998 Import Requirement 561 15 175 751
Anticipated commercial imports 46 15 125 186
Food aid needs 515 - 50 565
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 649 2 68 719
of which: Delivered 515 2 50 567
Donor-financed purchases 24 - 88 112
of which: for local use 24 - 88 112
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 34 0 93 127
Indexes



1997 production as % of normal:


128
1998 import requirement as % of normal:


96
1998 food aid requirement as % of normal:


126

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