FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998 -

SUDAN

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to southern Sudan forecasts the 1998 total cereal production for the region at 537 700 tonnes, of which 192 400 tonnes are expected from the mechanized farming sector in Upper Nile State. The remaining 345 300 tonnes, the bulk of which will be sorghum, are estimated to come from the traditional sector. Production in the traditional sector is double last year’s poor harvest due to better rains and a season relatively free from migratory pests and diseases.

Although the rains were delayed everywhere and were erratic in the first two months, they stabilized from mid-July and continued up to November throughout the three regions of southern Sudan. The resulting yields are far better than last year.

However, it is predicted that five states (Jonglei, Bahr el Jebel, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes and Warrab) will be in cereal deficit and food aid will be needed throughout the coming marketing year, particularly in Bahr el Ghazal region, as normal trade routes and infrastructure have broken down. It is unlikely that this year’s production and any surplus on-farm stocks in the traditional sectors of Upper Nile and Western Equatoria will be accessible through market forces due to the segmentation of the population. Similarly, most of the 192 000 tonnes produced by mechanized farms in Upper Nile State is likely to be marketed in northern and central parts, with little traded southwards. Large scale local purchases of surpluses from Upper Nile State are recommended to cover the food deficit in the southern states. In order to boost agricultural expansion, the Mission recommends the introduction of food-for-work schemes in secure areas in Bahr el Ghazal aimed at house rebuilding and farm rehabilitation, in conjunction with seed and tool supply schemes.

In central and northern Sudan, harvesting of the 1998 main season cereal crops has started. Despite severe floods and crop losses in parts, due to heavy rains in September, overall harvest prospects are favourable. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which has just visited the country to appraise the 1998 main cereal production and estimate commercial imports/exports and food aid requirements in 1999, is finalizing its report.

In anticipation of the good harvest and reflecting high levels of carryover stocks, prices of sorghum remain at very low levels. The Government has recently lifted the three-year ban on sorghum exports.