FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998 -

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ZAMBIA


Area: 741 000 sq.km
Climate: Tropical wet-dry, one rainy season (November-April)
Population: 10.240 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 380 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics: Imports through Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); inadequate rail and road connections
Major foodcrops: Maize, roots, tubers
Marketing year: May/April; Lean season: March-May
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 70 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The output of the 1998 irrigated wheat crop, now being harvested, is estimated at 71 000 tonnes, 11 000 tonnes more than last year and above average. Sowings of the coarse grain crop, to be harvested from April 1999, will start with the onset of the rainy season that is about to start.

Reflecting El Niño-related weather anomalies, cereal output in 1998 dropped by 37 percent to 709 000 tonnes. For maize, the main staple of the country, production was estimated at some 548 000 tonnes, 43 percent lower than last year and 58.6 percent below the five-year average.

The food supply situation for the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be tight. Maize prices have increased steadily since May. Against a total cereal import requirement of 660 000 tonnes, commercial imports are forecast at 364 000 tonnes leaving an uncovered deficit of 296 000 tonnes, which includes 45 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance. So far food aid pledges amount to 15 000 tonnes, of which 12 000 tonnes have been delivered.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 53 14 1 348 1 415
Normal Imports 35 4 65 104
of which: Structural food aid 25 - 45 70
1998/99 Domestic Availability 81 5 673 759
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms) 71 6 632 709
1998 Production (rice in milled terms) 71 4 632 707
Possible stock drawdown 10 1 41 52
1998/99 Utilization 122 28 1 269 1 419
Food Use 118 26 1 154 1 298
of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
Non-food use 4 2 115 121
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - - -
1998/99 Import Requirement 41 23 596 660
Anticipated commercial imports 41 15 308 364
Food aid needs - 8 288 296
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 6 1 8 15
of which: Delivered 6 1 5 12
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 12 3 113 127
Indexes



1998 production as % of normal:


50
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:


635
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:


423

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