FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1999 SOUTH AFRICA 41

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SOUTH AFRICA

Area:
1.22 million sq.km
Climate:
Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population:
45.28 million (1999 estimate); GNP per caput US$ 3 400 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics:
Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat
Marketing year:
May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
54 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop is underway. Prospects are poor. Latest forecasts point to a crop of 1.5 million tonnes, almost unchanged from last year and below average. This mainly reflects reduced plantings

Planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grains is underway. Despite an expected increase in plantings, erratic precipitation in late October/ November has delayed field operations in parts.

Final estimates of the 1999 maize harvest indicate an output of 7 million tonnes, below the 1998 output of 7.6 million tonnes and well below the average of the past five years. The crop was affected by excessive precipitation early in the season, which were followed by prolonged dry weather. After two consecutive poor maize harvests, the country's exportable surpluses in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March) has been sharply reduced.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

2 084

2

8 603

10 689

Normal Exports

185

-

1 893

2 078

1999/2000 Domestic Availability

1 545

2

7 594

9 141

1999 Production (rice in paddy terms)

1 545

3

7 507

9 055

1999 Production (rice in milled terms)

1 545

2

7 507

9 054

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

87

87

1999/2000 Utilization

2 745

449

8 571

11 765

Food Use

2 524

399

4 531

7 454

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

-

-

Non-food use

171

50

3 870

4 091

Exports or Re-exports

50

-

170

220

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1999/2000 Import Requirement

1 200

447

977

2 624

Anticipated commercial imports

1 200

447

977

2 624

Food aid needs

-

-

-

-

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

-

-

-

-

of which: Delivered

-

-

-

-

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

62

62

of which: for export

-

-

62

62

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

56

9

100

165

Indexes

       

1999 production as % of normal:

     

85

       

FAO/GIEWS - December 1999

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