The previous section of this analysis provided a broad indication of the potential markets and sources of supply for the main categories of forest product. This section increases the level of disaggregation to sharpen the focus of the analysis on the countries that account for most of the world's wood supply and demand and the most important countries in each of the main developing regions of the world.
The top ten consumer and producer countries across all forest product categories are mostly the same: the G5 countries, Sweden, Finland, Russian Federation, China and Indonesia. The United States of America is the largest producer and consumer of wood products across all product categories. Given the World Bank's focus on less developed countries therefore, this section has grouped OECD member countries together and included the most important producer and consumer countries in the developing regions in the analysis.
However, even outside the OECD country group, the same countries tend to appear as large producers or consumers across all product categories. Of the less developed countries, China, Russian Federation, Brazil and Indonesia are within the top six producers and consumers across all product categories. India, Malaysia and Chile are also important in many of the product categories. Countries which are not so important at a global scale but are important within their respective regions include: Thailand; Turkey; Nigeria; South Africa; and Argentina.
The analysis presented below has used the country groupings described earlier (i.e. three OECD regions and four non-OECD regions). Statistics for an alternative country grouping - World Bank client and non-client countries in each of their operational regions - is given in Annex 2.
Current and projected industrial roundwood production and consumption is shown in Table 12. In terms of production, OECD countries, led by the United States of America and Canada, currently produce 62% of the world's industrial roundwood. Other large OECD producers include: Sweden, Finland and Germany.
Of the non-OECD regions, Asia and Oceania has the greatest share of world industrial roundwood production (17%) and four producers of global significance (China, Indonesia, Malaysia and India). The only other globally significant producers in the non-OECD regions are Russian Federation, Brazil; Chile and South Africa.
Industrial roundwood production in non-OECD Europe is dominated by the Russian Federation (production in other countries in Eastern Europe is very small at the global scale). However, Russian production continues to be significantly lower than experienced in previous decades due to the economic circumstances facing the country. It is likely that, of all the non-OECD countries, the Russian Federation has the greatest potential to increase industrial roundwood production substantially.
The non-OECD South and Central America and Asia and Oceania regions both contain a number of large industrial roundwood producers. Production in these regions comes from a mixture of tropical natural forests, tropical plantations and temperate plantations. The plantations in these regions have tremendous potential to increase wood supplies in the future. However, there are uncertainties about the yields which might be achieved in some of these plantations. The other major supply uncertainty in these regions concerns the amounts and manner of harvesting which will be allowed in the regions' natural forests in the future.
Africa is a minor industrial roundwood producing region, despite containing most of the major remaining countries which will export tropical logs. One third of industrial roundwood production in Africa comes from South Africa (mostly from temperate plantations). However, industrial roundwood production in this country is small at the global scale.
In terms of current industrial roundwood consumption, the picture is only slightly different. OECD countries account for 65% of world industrial roundwood consumption, again led by the United States of America and Canada. Japan is the next major consumer and, as a result of relatively low domestic production, is a major importer (Japan accounts for a substantial share - about 40% - of the world's industrial roundwood imports). Other major consumers are: Sweden; Finland; and France.
Of the non-OECD countries, the same six countries (Russian Federation, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Brazil) are the top industrial roundwood consumers and account for 24% of world consumption. All the other non-OECD countries added together only account for 11% of global industrial roundwood consumption. Non-OECD countries in Asia have the greatest share of consumption of the non-OECD regions (19%) and this region is a net importer of industrial roundwood.
By 2010, it is expected that non-OECD countries will have increased their share of global industrial roundwood production and consumption to 42% and 38% respectively. The United States of America and Canada will remain the world's largest industrial roundwood producers and consumers, but with a smaller share of the global market. Most other OECD countries are expected to increase production and consumption in line with the global trend. Japan will remain a significant log buyer, but will find it increasingly difficult to source logs from its traditional supplier countries. It is likely to look to the southern countries, particularly in Oceania and South America, for new sources of supply.
Table 12: Current and projected industrial roundwood production and consumption by region and country
Region |
1996 |
2010 (projection) | ||||||
Production |
Consumption |
Production |
Consumption | |||||
(1,000 m3) |
% |
(1,000 m3) |
% |
(1,000 m3) |
% |
(1,000 m3) |
% | |
OECD - Europe |
256,327 |
17% |
277,108 |
19% |
326,616 |
17% |
362,780 |
19% |
OECD - Asia and Oceania |
72,448 |
5% |
115,960 |
8% |
97,024 |
5% |
156,812 |
8% |
OECD - Americas |
595,622 |
40% |
581,326 |
39% |
653,304 |
35% |
637,086 |
34% |
OECD total |
924,397 |
62% |
974,394 |
65% |
1,076,943 |
58% |
1,156,678 |
62% |
Russian Federation |
67,000 |
4% |
51,652 |
3% |
94,523 |
5% |
83,542 |
4% |
Romania |
9,441 |
1% |
9,516 |
1% |
9,028 |
<1% |
9,008 |
<1% |
Belarus |
9,206 |
1% |
8,690 |
1% |
14,221 |
1% |
13,278 |
1% |
Latvia |
5,690 |
<1% |
3,387 |
<1% |
6,920 |
<1% |
1,660 |
<1% |
Slovakia |
4,887 |
<1% |
4,343 |
<1% |
4,549 |
<1% |
3,515 |
<1% |
Others |
17,091 |
1% |
13,564 |
1% |
46,201 |
2% |
37,682 |
2% |
Non-OECD Europe total |
113,315 |
8% |
91,153 |
6% |
175,442 |
9% |
148,685 |
8% |
China |
108,718 |
7% |
112,407 |
8% |
151,582 |
8% |
154,770 |
8% |
Indonesia |
47,245 |
3% |
46,739 |
3% |
57,256 |
3% |
56,960 |
3% |
Malaysia |
35,771 |
2% |
28,843 |
2% |
37,910 |
2% |
24,883 |
1% |
India1 |
24,989 |
2% |
25,302 |
2% |
46,936 |
3% |
49,955 |
3% |
Turkey |
10,745 |
1% |
11,501 |
1% |
13,789 |
1% |
13,806 |
1% |
Others |
21,698 |
1% |
16,701 |
1% |
70,707 |
4% |
63,474 |
3% |
Non-OECD Asia & Oceania total |
249,165 |
17% |
241,493 |
16% |
378,180 |
20% |
363,849 |
19% |
Brazil |
84,711 |
6% |
82,504 |
6% |
97,405 |
5% |
88,114 |
5% |
Chile |
21,387 |
1% |
14,938 |
1% |
28,933 |
2% |
21,971 |
1% |
Argentina |
6,220 |
<1% |
5,258 |
<1% |
10,752 |
1% |
7,756 |
<1% |
Ecuador |
5,514 |
<1% |
5,495 |
<1% |
1,558 |
<1% |
1,519 |
<1% |
Paraguay |
3,877 |
<1% |
3,882 |
<1% |
2,107 |
<1% |
2,094 |
<1% |
Others |
13,007 |
1% |
12,644 |
1% |
16,725 |
1% |
15,390 |
1% |
Non-OECD Americas |
134,716 |
9% |
124,721 |
8% |
157,480 |
8% |
136,844 |
7% |
South Africa |
18,176 |
1% |
15,780 |
1% |
21,677 |
1% |
18,214 |
1% |
Nigeria |
8,479 |
1% |
8,470 |
1% |
9,698 |
1% |
9,796 |
1% |
Congo, Democratic Republic of |
3,433 |
<1% |
3,255 |
<1% |
4,694 |
<1% |
4,580 |
<1% |
Cameroon |
3,364 |
<1% |
2,057 |
<1% |
3,455 |
<1% |
1,806 |
<1% |
Côte d'Ivoire |
3,008 |
<1% |
2,676 |
<1% |
2,989 |
<1% |
2,929 |
<1% |
Others |
31,471 |
2% |
28,930 |
2% |
41,016 |
2% |
37,358 |
2% |
Africa total |
67,931 |
5% |
61,168 |
4% |
83,529 |
4% |
74,682 |
4% |
Non-OECD total |
565,127 |
38% |
518,535 |
35% |
794,631 |
42% |
724,060 |
38% |
World total |
1,489,524 |
1,492,929 |
1,871,574 |
1,880,738 | ||||
Note: 1. Based on production of wood products, it is suspected that current industrial roundwood production in India is substantially under-reported. A figure of closer to 40 million m3 is probably the current level of industrial roundwood production and growth from 1996 to 2010 will, consequently, really be lower than appears here.
Of the non-OECD countries, industrial roundwood production is expected to increase in all the major producer countries. However, there are uncertainties about supply in some of the larger producers. China has announced a policy to restrict harvesting from the natural forest as has Malaysia. Several smaller countries (e.g. Sri Lanka; Thailand and the Philippines) already have production bans in the natural forest and others are examining this policy option (e.g. Vietnam).
Most industrial roundwood production growth in non-OECD countries is expected to come from the maturation of plantations in large producer countries such as: China; Brazil; and Indonesia. Other slightly smaller producer countries are also expected to increase their share of world industrial roundwood production due to the maturation of their plantation resources (e.g. Chile and Argentina).
Current and projected sawnwood production and consumption is shown in Table 13. OECD countries currently have a 68% share of world production and a 69% share of world consumption. The United States of America and Canada again lead the sawnwood production table, although this time they are followed by: Japan; Sweden; Germany; and France. In terms of sawnwood consumption, major consumers in this group are: United States of America; Japan; Germany; Canada; France and Italy.
Canada is by far the largest sawnwood exporter in the world. Major sawnwood importers are the United States of America, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy.
Of the non-OECD countries, the top four sawnwood producers (Russian Federation, China, India and Brazil) account for 19% of global production and consumption. The remaining developing countries added together account for about 13% of sawnwood production and 14% of sawnwood consumption.
Non-OECD Asia and Oceania again has the largest share of non-OECD sawnwood production (15%) and consumption (16%). In this region, Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey are significant sawnwood producers and consumers at the regional level. Other countries of regional significance include: Chile in South America; and Nigeria and South Africa in Africa.
Out of all the non-OECD countries, only the Russian Federation and Malaysia are globally significant sawnwood exporters and China is the only major sawnwood importer. Brazil is of minor significance as a world exporter of sawnwood.
By 2010, the OECD share of world sawnwood production is expected to decline only slightly, but its share of global sawnwood consumption is expected to fall to 65%. This is due to slow growth in sawnwood consumption expected in the United States of America and Canada. Growth in the other OECD countries is expected match the global trend. Overall, the market for sawnwood in OECD countries is expected to grow by only 0.6% per annum or 9% in total over the period.
In contrast, relatively high rates of growth in consumption of sawnwood are expected in non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia and Eastern Europe, as their economies expand. Average annual growth of 2.2% or total growth of 35% over the period is expected in the non-OECD countries; this figure is roughly twice the rate of growth in OECD countries.
An important projection for non-OECD Asia and Oceania is that sawnwood consumption growth is expected to exceed production growth over the period to 2010. Most exporters in the region are expected to consume more of their domestic production and have less sawnwood left over for export and sawnwood imports are projected to increase in several countries. As a result, the region is projected to change from net exporter of sawnwood to net importer of sawnwood.
