As noted above, any forecast of trade flows in 2010 is likely to be highly speculative. However, the changes in supply and demand expected in the future might lead to the changes in trading patterns outlined below.
Industrial roundwood. Global industrial roundwood trade in the future will continue to be concentrated around the Pacific Rim. Japan, China and Republic of Korea will continue to have significant levels of demand for imported industrial roundwood, unless their trading policies change or current exporters can provide them with finished products at very competitive prices. However, the extent to which they manage to continue to import a significant proportion of their wood needs in the form of industrial roundwood, rather than products, will largely depend upon export policies and industrial developments in the countries currently supplying them.
There will be a significant increase in the availability of plantation-grown wood in some of their supplier countries. However, it seems likely that some of their current suppliers will develop significant wood processing industries of their own and may prefer to export products in the future. The most likely to do this are the developed supplier countries, such as Australia and New Zealand and, maybe, Malaysia. Consequently log export flows may shift somewhat towards countries which are some way behind these with the development of their domestic processing industries (e.g. in developing South America and Oceania).
A further potentially vast source of future supply in this area is Eastern Siberia. Expansion of harvesting into this area will depend upon the economics of production and, to some extent, diplomatic relations in the region. It is anticipated, however, that production from this region will expand to fill-in an expected reduction in temperate industrial roundwood exports from the United States of America.
In summary, the main centres of import demand are expected to remain the same, but the weight of the various exporting countries is expected to shift from United States of America to Russian Federation in the northern hemisphere and from Southeast Asia and developed Oceania to less developed Oceania and South America in the Southern Hemisphere.
Sawnwood. No major changes in the trade flows of sawnwood are expected in the future. As already noted, most international trade in sawnwood takes place between developed countries and this is expected to continue in the future. China will become a larger importer of sawnwood and is likely to have to rely on a wider range of countries to meet its import needs. A greater share of exports to China are also likely to come from outside Asia. Sawnwood exports from the few significant developing country exporters (Malaysia, Russian Federation and Brazil) are also likely to decline as their domestic demand growth exceeds production growth. Indeed, Russian Federation may remain the only large developing country exporter of sawnwood by the year 2010.
Wood-based panels. Trading patterns in wood-based panels are also expected to remain more or less the same in 2010. Of the three significant developing country exporters, exports from Brazil and Indonesia are expected to remain roughly the same as production growth keeps up with domestic consumption growth. In Malaysia, domestic consumption growth is expected to exceed production growth, leading to a decline in exports. China, Japan and Republic of Korea will therefore, have to look elsewhere for some of their future wood-based panel imports.
As already noted, the majority of wood-based panel exports from developing countries are in the plywood sector. Production in Malaysia is expected to decline somewhat over the period to 2010 due to increasing log scarcity. To the extent that this affects Brazil and Indonesia, these countries may also see a decline in exports in the future rather than the constant level of exports projected here. If this leads to upward price pressure in plywood markets, other countries with substantial remaining natural forest resources (e.g. Papua New Guinea, Suriname and Guyana) or more mature plantations (e.g. Chile and Argentina) may choose to develop greater export plywood markets. They would be unlikely however, to reach a globally significant scale within the time period of this analysis.
An alternative for many plywood exporting countries facing potential log shortages, would be to move into production of other types of wood-based panel. It is likely that this will eventually occur across the whole of Southeast Asia and some restructuring may take place during the period of this forecast. Again, it is unlikely however, that they would be able to reach a globally significant scale within the time period of this analysis.
Pulp and paper. The most interesting potential development in pulp and paper trade which is quite likely to occur over the period to 2010, is the continued increase in pulp exports from South America (Chile, Argentina and Brazil) to Asia and, possibly, United States of America. This region has already developed the nucleus of a globally significant centre of pulp production and exports and it should be relatively simple to build on this base and expand production and exports further. (In the case of Brazil, these comments apply equally to the paper industry). There will, however, be continued pressure (in terms of both production economies and government policies) to integrate pulp production with paper production, thus tending to limit expansion in the trade of pulp.
In contrast, two of the three largest Asian pulp and producers (China and India) produce mostly non-wood fibre pulp and the only other significant producer (Indonesia) is still relatively inexperienced in this area. The rate at which pulping and papermaking capacity is installed and effectively managed in these and other countries, will have a profound impact on whether Asia's vast pulpwood plantation resource is left in the ground, produced and exported as chips or roundwood, or produced and exported as pulp and paper.
The preceding discussion has shown in greater detail, the countries or groups of countries which are most significant at the global scale in terms of wood and wood product production, consumption and trade. The most important point this discussion has highlighted is that, in general, production, consumption and trade of all wood and wood products is overwhelmingly dominated by a small number of developed countries and that this situation is not likely to change by very much over the period to 2010.
Developing countries have a roughly 20% to 30% share of global production and consumption of all wood and wood product categories and their shares of the different product category markets are generally expected to increase marginally by 2010. Of the four developing regions identified in this analysis, Asia and Oceania is has by far the largest market for wood and wood products.
Developing countries which have been highlighted as globally significant in production, consumption and trade include: Russian Federation, China and Brazil (industrial roundwood and all products); and Indonesia and Malaysia (as producers and consumers of industrial roundwood and most products and exporters of some products). Of the above countries, all are major exporters with the exception of China. India is also a major producer and consumer but does not register as a major trading nation in wood and wood products markets.
Other developing countries of minor global significance or regional significance include: Chile and Argentina in South America; Turkey in Asia; and South Africa in Africa. It is interesting to note that none of the developing European countries, with the exception of Russian Federation, are of even minor significance in any of the wood and wood product categories. This is probably due to their small size. However, it must also be noted that they have tremendous marketing opportunities by being located so close to Western Europe. Just as Japan has acted as a catalyst for forest product market development in Asia, countries such as Germany, Finland, Sweden and Austria could (and indeed already are to some extent) do the same in Eastern Europe.
In terms of individual countrys' forest products markets, it would appear that the most interesting developments over the next decade or so are going to arise in the Pacific-Rim countries. This region is and will continue to be a major centre of production, consumption and trade, including a considerable amount of trade between developing and developed countries. Major developing country producers in the region face uncertainties regarding their future supply from the natural forest and the large area of plantations that they have developed. In turn, this will cause many of them to consider carefully the forest processing industry developments they will wish to pursue over the next few decades. Given the timescale over which some of these changes might take place, they will have to examine such changes fairly soon.
