Two components of SFM which have the potential to affect future wood supplies are the increased placement of forest areas into legally protected areas and changes in the way in which harvesting is carried-out in remaining forest areas. The former has already been discussed above, so the latter will be discussed here.
The largest potential impact of SFM on future wood supply will probably be through changes in harvesting regulations that are likely to be introduced. Most countries around the world have regulations the amount of wood which can be harvested from public (and sometimes also private) forest lands and many also lay down rules about how, when and when the wood may be cut. The achievement of SFM will, in many cases, require a revision of these rules (and, of course, stricter implementation of these rules - in many cases, implementation is currently very weak).
There is currently considerable debate and disagreement about exactly what measures would be required so that a forest manager could then say that they are managing their forests sustainably. However, most current interpretations of SFM have resulted in a general trend towards a reduction in the amount of timber that can be harvested each year from areas of natural forest and plantations.
Measures that might be introduced in forest plantations include:
1. requirements to plant more native species and a greater diversity of species;
2. requirements to leave greater areas of open space around watercourses and other sensitive sites; and
3. measures to reduce the amount of artificial inputs (i.e. fertilisers and pesticides) added to forest crops.
Such measures will all generally tend to reduce the growth potential of plantations (although better silvicultural practices, the selection of faster growing trees and other technology developments may offset this effect to some extent).
In terms of harvesting, in plantations and areas of natural forest where clear-cutting harvesting systems are the norm, measures which might be introduced include:
1. alteration of rotation ages away from economically optimum rotation ages towards ages which are more aesthetically pleasing and better for the environment (generally longer rotation ages);
2. changes in the size of areas which may be clear-cut as one contiguous area, probably reducing the average clear-cut area (and, consequently increasing operating costs) in most cases; and
3. retention of areas of forest to grow to biological rotation age in order to provide seed, maintain wildlife habitats and reduce soil erosion (e.g. the variable retention silvicultural system recently accepted for adoption by one major forestry company in British Columbia).
In plantations and natural forest where selection felling is more commonly applied, SFM may involve increasing the minimum size of trees which may be felled, reducing the number or type of species which may be felled in a given area (to conserve biodiversity) and extending the cutting cycle.21
All of these possible changes to harvesting regulations are likely to have the effect of reducing the volume of timber which can be taken from a forest area in any one year. They will therefore, tend to reduce potential harvesting volumes in the short-run. However, in the long-run, they may support a sustainable level of production that will exceed what would be possible in later years if current harvesting systems were to be continued. It should also be noted that they will also generally tend to increase roundwood production costs (see below).
The above sections described the main ways in which changes in future forest resource availability and management might affect potential wood supplies. This final section tries to summarise and quantify these changes.
Two possible land-use changes were examined above as probably having the greatest potential effect on future wood supplies: changes in the demand for agricultural land and changes in the area of forest in protected areas or subject to other forms of harvesting restrictions.
As has already been noted, the expected future demand for agricultural land is only about one third of the expected future rate of deforestation, which has been built into the calculation of the baseline supply projections presented earlier. If a greater share of the world's future food production requirements were to be satisfied by a higher rate of conversion of forest land to agricultural uses, there is a considerable additional area of forest conversion to other land uses already built into the estimates of future deforestation to believe that such an increase could be accommodated without significantly increasing the deforestation estimates used here. Thus, it is believed that any such changes are unlikely to have a significant impact on future potential wood supplies. This view is reinforced by the fact that, as will be shown below, agricultural land can also be a significant source of future wood supply from trees outside of forests.
The amount of forest which would have to be placed into protected areas to meet a global target of 10% was shown in Table 19. If such a target were to be achieved, the impact on future supply potential would depend upon the type of forest areas taken out of production.
As Table 19 showed, the amount of forest which would have to be removed from production to meet such a target is far less than the amount of forest already assumed in the GFSM, to be unavailable for future wood supply at the broad regional level. Even at the individual country level, there are only a handful of very small countries which are already harvesting in or have access to such a large extent of their forest estate that such a move would necessarily reduce the area available for wood supply.
Therefore, given that currently inaccessible areas are more likely to be chosen for placing into protected areas (because they have been less disturbed) than areas currently available for wood supply, it seems likely that the achievement of a 10% forest protected area target could be achieved with minimal impact on future timber markets. However, to test a range of future possibilities, three scenarios for the future placement of forest areas into legally protected areas have been constructed for this analysis and are shown in Table 24.
Table 24: The effect on potential future wood supply of achieving a minimum of 10% forest in protected areas by the year 2010
Region |
Area removed from area available for wood supply to meet the target (1,000 ha) |
Potential future wood and fibre supply in 2010 with areas removed (million m3) |
GFPM projection for 2010 | ||||
Low |
Medium |
High |
Low |
Medium |
High |
(million m3) | |
Africa |
0 |
7,700 |
18,486 |
81 |
77 |
72 |
86 |
Asia |
32 |
2,628 |
4,682 |
729 |
720 |
714 |
643 |
Oceania |
0 |
679 |
2,271 |
80 |
78 |
73 |
54 |
Europe |
14 |
6,864 |
8,853 |
893 |
884 |
881 |
632 |
North and Central America |
0 |
16,922 |
31,629 |
835 |
792 |
755 |
805 |
South America |
0 |
7,579 |
42,042 |
225 |
214 |
164 |
155 |
World |
47 |
52,231 |
107,962 |
2,843 |
2,766 |
2,659 |
2,375 |
Note: The potential future production estimate for North and Central America is a vast underestimate because potential future recovery of recycled fibre has not been included in the official estimate for North America.
The low impact scenario assumes that all forest required to be taken out of production to meet a 10% protected area target (at the individual country level) has to come first from forest currently unavailable for wood supply. The high impact scenario assumes the opposite and that forest available for wood supply will be placed into protected areas first. The central scenario assumes that forest areas placed into legally protected areas will come from each of the two types of forest in proportion to their present relative sizes.
The areas remaining in production in each scenario are then simply multiplied in the table, by the baseline estimate of future potential supply originally shown in Table 11 to give the revised estimates of future production potential shown in the right-hand half of Table 24. (For ease of reference, the baseline forecasts of total actual production from the GFPM are also shown on the far right-hand side of the table).
This simplistic calculation of the effect on potential supply of moving areas of forest into protected areas probably overestimates the impact of such moves. For example, the original estimates of supply potential for all regions except North America, included supply from recycled and non-wood fibre which will not be affected by such changes. However, the results shown in Table 19 illustrate the generally minor impact such moves would have on future supply potential, in most regions and under most future scenarios.
Under the low impact scenario, only a tiny amount of forest available for wood supply would have to be moved into protected areas, so the 10% target could be achieved with practically no impact on future wood supplies. Under the medium impact scenario, potential production would fall in each of the regions by between 1% in Asia and 5% in South America and would also be likely to have little impact. Under the high impact scenario, production would fall in each of the regions by between 2% in Asia and 27% in South America. This might start to have an impact on future wood supplies in some regions.
Africa is the only region where transferring forest areas into protected areas might cause reductions in production potential to lead to cuts in actual production. The figures for North and Central America in Table 24 also show production potential dropping below the actual production forecast for 2010 under the high and medium impact scenario. However, it must be remembered that the enormous potential production of recycled fibre is not included in the figures presented for this region.
Production potential in all of the other regions should be likely to remain high enough to cover industrial roundwood needs under almost all circumstances and even in Africa, the abundance of trees outside of forests may make it possible to achieve the 10% forest in protected area target with minimal impact on timber markets.
Based on the three scenarios of future industrial forest plantation establishment rates given in Section 6.2.3 Future likely rates of plantation establishment, the forecasts of future potential industrial roundwood production from forest plantations shown in Figure 7 were constructed. These scenarios illustrate several features relating to potential future industrial roundwood production from forest plantations:
1. they show that the recent historically high rates of plantation establishment will ensure that potential wood production from forest plantations will significantly increase over the period to 2010 (to around 600 million m3/year);
2. they show that the current rate of forest plantation establishment will have little effect on potential production within the period to 2010; but
3. they also show that the current rate of forest plantation establishment will have a major impact on potential wood production over the longer term (a difference of about 700 million m3/year between the high and low forecasts by the year 2020).
The forecast of total industrial roundwood supply and demand can not be reliably extended to 2050, so it is difficult to assess the likely importance of forest plantations for future industrial roundwood supply in the very long-term. However, it is possible to make some tentative statements based on a continuation of current trends in supply and demand. For example, scenario 1 (no new planting) is likely to be insufficient to keep pace with growth in industrial roundwood consumption in the long-term and additional new sources of wood or fibre (or new technologies) would probably have to be found to satisfy future demands. Something close to scenario 2 would probably roughly keep pace with increasing demand for industrial roundwood in the long-term and would result in current levels of harvesting in natural forests and the use of non-forest fibre sources being maintained (unless other new fibre sources are found or new technologies are introduced). Only under scenario 3, with its relatively large implications for land-use change, would forest plantations be likely to substitute for industrial roundwood production from natural forests. Scenario 3 suggests an expansion in forest plantation production to 1.5 billion m3/year (a level that is approximately equal to current levels of global industrial roundwood consumption).
As this analysis shows, the long-term production forecast from forest plantations is very sensitive to the assumptions made about future forest plantation establishment rates. Consequently, much is likely to be determined by the future availability of land for new planting.
Potential supply from forest plantations (in million cubic metres)
Figure 7: Three forecasts of future potential industrial roundwood production from forest plantations
Year
Source: Brown (1999)
In the case of potential future wood supply from trees outside of forests, it was already noted above that a current lack of data makes it extremely difficult to make any projections at a global scale. However, at a regional and country scale and for certain components of the trees outside of forests resource, it is possible to make some rough estimates. This is particularly the case for countries and regions where such resources might be most important. So, for example, the Government of Sri Lanka has collected information about current sources of supply and some projections of potential wood production from trees outside of forests, as illustrated in Table 25.
Table 25: Current and projected wood production from homesteads and other non-forest tree resources in Sri Lanka (in thousand m3)
Product and source |
Year | |||
1995 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 | |
Rubberwood peeler logs |
7.8 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
8.2 |
Sawlogs |
||||
Home gardens |
551.3 |
570.0 |
641.8 |
702.4 |
Rubber plantations |
253.1 |
256.3 |
270.0 |
265.8 |
Coconut and Palmyra |
168.0 |
202.4 |
210.9 |
154.3 |
Trees on tea land |
75.9 |
75.9 |
75.9 |
75.9 |
Other perennials |
65.6 |
68.6 |
74.9 |
81.9 |
Roadsides and settlements |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
Poles |
||||
Home gardens |
786.6 |
813.2 |
822.6 |
831.7 |
Other perennials |
45.6 |
47.7 |
52.1 |
57.0 |
Total |
1,958.6 |
2,046.8 |
2,161.7 |
2,182.4 |
Source: Government of Sri Lanka (1995)
As the above table shows, homesteads and non-forest trees generally are expected to supply more sawlogs and more poles for local consumption over the next 20 years. Because harvesting is currently not allowed in forest areas and Sri Lanka is not a wealthy country, this supply is vital to meet future domestic wood demands.
Table 26: Current and projected wood production from trees outside of forests in the Asia-Pacific region (in million m3)
Region |
Source | ||||
Other |
Agricultural land |
Other |
Total | ||
wooded land |
Agricultural tree crops |
Other crops and pasture |
land |
||
1995 |
|||||
Advanced Industrial Economies |
6.4 |
2.0 |
16.5 |
1.6 |
26.5 |
Newly Industrialising Economies |
0.1 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
2.4 |
North Asia |
19.2 |
60.4 |
317.9 |
44.7 |
442.2 |
Southeast Asia |
17.2 |
115.6 |
60.4 |
8.7 |
201.9 |
South Asia |
9.7 |
44.6 |
133.3 |
12.4 |
200.0 |
Pacific Islands |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
Asia-Pacific |
53.1 |
224.6 |
529.5 |
68 |
875.2 |
2010 |
|||||
Advanced Industrial Economies |
6.4 |
1.8 |
16.3 |
1.6 |
26.1 |
Newly Industrialising Economies |
0.1 |
1.6 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
2.3 |
North Asia |
19.0 |
143.1 |
308.9 |
43.3 |
514.3 |
Southeast Asia |
15.6 |
146.2 |
81.2 |
9.7 |
252.7 |
South Asia |
7.3 |
48.7 |
134.7 |
11.8 |
202.5 |
Pacific Islands |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
Asia-Pacific |
48.8 |
341.8 |
543.3 |
67 |
1000.9 |
Source: FAO (1998)
The only region where detailed research into the future potential supply from trees outside of forests has been conducted is the Asia-Pacific region (FAO, 1998; Blanchez, 1998). A summary of the current and future projected potential wood supply from trees outside of forests presented in the APFSOS is shown in Table 26. It should be pointed-out that some of these estimates are based on sparse data and that there is much uncertainty attached to these forecasts. However, they can serve as a rough guide to the importance of this resource within the region. For example, they show that the recent and future projected increase in the establishment of agricultural tree crops in the region (fruit orchards and plantations of oil palm, coconuts and rubber) could have a significant impact on future wood supplies, particularly in North and Southeast Asia. Already some countries in the region (e.g. Thailand and Malaysia) are developing industries to take advantage of this resource.
It seems likely that Asia and Africa are the two developing regions where there is most scope for increasing wood supply from trees outside of forests.
The main ways in which implementation of SFM may lead to a reduction in future harvesting volumes were described above. Some quantitative estimates of future volume reductions and production cost changes are shown in Table 27. This table was constructed from a review of the forestry literature carried-out as part of the GFSM analysis. In many cases, the impacts shown in the table are based on a single study of a small area. Therefore, the results of these studies must be interpreted cautiously and not be seen as representative of whole countries, regions or the world.
Table 27: Summary of the findings of recent studies into the production cost and volume implications of implementing SFM around the world
Region |
Country |
Case study |
Short-term volume reductions |
Cost implications |
North America |
Canada |
Clayoquot Sound |
30-40% |
8-25% cost increase |
North America |
Canada |
White River |
10-25% |
Increase |
North America |
Canada |
Seine River |
24% |
n.a. |
Europe |
Sweden |
A Barklund |
6-8% |
n.a. |
Asia |
Malaysia |
Sarawak |
50% |
Increase |
Asia |
Malaysia |
Innoprise Corp. |
6-8% |
5% cost increase |
Asia |
Malaysia |
Dermakot |
up to 100% |
n.a. |
Asia |
Indonesia |
Indonesian Plan |
18.4% |
n.a. |
Asia |
Indonesia |
STREK Project |
9 - 15% |
Increase |
Latin America |
Bolivia |
Chimanes |
24 - 57% |
35-67% loss in profits to logging contractors |
Latin America |
Brazil |
Paragominas |
up to 100% |
$ 72/ha increase |
Latin America |
Brazil |
Precious Woods |
24-57% |
0% cost increase but assumes more trees as commercial species |
Latin America |
Suriname |
CELOS |
9% |
10-20% cost savings |
Latin America |
Costa Rica |
n.a. |
Increase |
Source: FAO (1999a)
Most of the studies reviewed here suggest that the implementation of SFM is likely to result in reductions in future harvesting volumes (per unit area), particularly in the short-term. In the tropical regions, they suggest reductions may be between 20% and 60%, but sometimes as high as 100%, depending upon circumstances. In the few studies of temperate and boreal forests, they suggest generally lower volume impacts of between 10% and 40%. In the longer-term however, the literature also suggests that SFM will result in higher production than a continuation of current harvesting practices through the maintenance of site productivity and the retention and prevention of damage to immature trees (in selectively logged areas).
Less information is available about the impact of SFM on production costs, but what information is available suggests that costs may rise by up to 25% in temperate and boreal countries. In tropical countries, the cost impact of implementing SFM could be much lower, say up to 5%. This is partly because current poor harvesting practices in many tropical countries are not only bad for the environment, but are also not very cost-effective. Therefore, the improved practices required to implement SFM may actually result in cost savings in some cases22.
Losses of harvesting volumes such as those suggested above would have profound implications for future wood and wood product supply and demand. The regions most likely to be affected would be Africa and Asia, although some major temperate and boreal producers would also face significant challenges. Such losses could be replaced by supplies from plantations and trees outside of forests, but again, this would require a significant restructuring of the wood processing industry. However, the greatest uncertainty about the future impact of the implementation of SFM on harvesting volumes is likely to concern the total area where radical changes in current forest practices will be required. The above table has shown the possible impacts of changes in a few specific examples from around the world. It seems likely that there are large areas of forest where the impacts of the implementation of SFM would be less than suggested above.
21 Similar to the rotation age in a plantation, the cutting cycle is the period of time which must elapse before a forest manager is permitted back into an area which has been selectively logged in order to take a subsequent volume of timber.
22 For example, there is a wealth of studies in the forestry literature to show how the implementation of SFM techniques such as proper planning, road and skid-trail layout and reduced impact felling have little impact on costs and can actually reduce costs or increase the value of output in some cases.
