Wood pulp
Pulpwood
Pitprops - European consumption and trade
Conclusions of the Montreal Conference
NOTE: These conclusions were drafted in the spring this year. Subsequent developments and the economic adjustment in the United States have accentuated certain features of the world situation. In Scandinavia particularly, a virtual cessation of United States pulp imports is having a most serious effect on dollar balances. Consumption in the United States is so large in relation to the amount of European pulp imports that even a mild decline in American consumption can stop marginal imports, thus throwing the economies of the exporting countries seriously off balance. A greater reliance on alternate markets would be safer although at present this would not help the quest for dollars.
In one sense, world needs for the products of pulp - newsprint, other printing and writing papers, wrappings, packaging material, and textile fibers - are far greater than existing supplies. This was the tenor of the message from UNESCO, with which the Conference agreed in principle.* However, physical limitations as well as the economic and financial problems connected with the acquisition of desirable supplies seem to stand in the way of meeting consumer needs as disclosed by UNESCO. Accordingly, the Conference had to restrict its deliberations to the present and future effective demand of the pulp-using industries.
* See Report of the Preparatory Conference on World Pulp Problems, Montreal, June 1949.
The Conference estimates given in Table 1 show approximate equilibrium between world production and requirements for 1948 to 1955. If these figures are confirmed by subsequent developments, there should be no major wood pulp surplus or deficit during the period under review.
The war has brought about a major change in the distribution of pulp production and pulp consumption as between different regions of the world. North America, which in 1937 produced 46 percent and consumed 51 percent of the world output (excluding the U.S.S.R.) now produces 68 percent and consumes 70 percent. The production and consumption of Europe, on the other hand, have fallen from 49 percent and 42 percent respectively in 1937, to 29 percent and 25 percent in 1948. The relative and absolute importance of consumption in Asia and the Far East have been reduced, largely because of the changed situation of Japan. In Latin America and in Oceania large percentage increases in output have occurred, but the tonnages in both regions are small in terms of world production.
Although 1948 production at nearly 28 million metric tons was the highest on record, it was estimated that there was in existence unused pulp producing capacity to the extent of 4.3 million tons in Europe and of more than one million tons in other parts of the world, mainly in Japan. At the same time a large amount of new capacity was being built or planned.
The increases for consumption and production of wood pulp and pulp products forecast for 1955 are subject to limitations which, particularly in Europe and Japan, may place grave difficulties in the way of their fulfilment. On the continent of Europe, but with less application to the northern countries, forests have been heavily overcut during the war and postwar years, and these accelerated rates of cutting cannot be sustained indefinitely without disastrous results. Full use of the pulp productive capacity which already exists would require an increase of about 60 percent in Europe in the rate of cuttings achieved in 1947 if full reliance were to be placed on the forests of the region. This appears to be improbable because of the high level of demands for other and competitive forest products, such as saw timber and pitprops.
The situation is made more acute by the cessation of pulpwood exports from the U.S.S.R. Current estimates for European pulp production in 1955 would require net imports of pulpwood in excess of 3 million cubic meters. This figure is to be compared to a total European pulpwood cut expected to range from 40 to 50 million cubic meters around 1955. Yet this deficiency raises a difficult problem since it affects primarily the countries of western Europe which, in view of the present state of their forest resources, have to rely on large pulpwood imports.
The Japanese Government desires to increase woodpulp production substantially in spite of the domestic forests being overcut twice their annual growth. This Japanese production plan does not have the approval of the occupation forces. Prospects for large imports of pulpwood are not good because of the lack of adequate funds by the Japanese.
A factor affecting paper supplies is the increased manufacture of dissolving grades of pulp, mainly for the production of textile fibers. Although this diversion affects only a small proportion of the total production of chemical pulp at present, it tends to reduce the amounts available for the production of paper and paperboard whenever it occurs without the corresponding of pulp producing capacity, as is true in some of the older pulp producing areas.
The figures appearing in Table 1 with regard to 1949 and 1950 are on the whole more reliable estimates than those shown for 1955. Yet even in interpreting these figures it should be remembered that they constitute maximum estimates which are both possible and desirable, but which might be substantially modified in the light of general economic conditions. Moreover, the fulfilment of these estimates must come in most countries from the action of individual producers and pulp consuming industries over which the governments represented at this Conference exercise no direct control.
World pulp production (excluding the U.S.S.R.) was almost four million tons higher in 1948 than in 1937, the best prewar year. Statistics assembled by the Conference indicated that this output was slightly in excess of current consumption. Although the apparent world surplus was less than three percent of production and may be due to statistical inaccuracies, it tends to explain the recent decline in prices, accumulation of stocks, and the difficulties encountered by producers in disposing of their pulp.
The estimates for 1949 and 1950 indicate a rapid restoration of equilibrium. World pulp requirements for 1949 are expected to exceed last year's consumption by 1.2 million tons, while world production will increase by about 1 million tons. For 1950 a further rise in requirements by 2.5 million tons is anticipated which would exceed production by 100,000 tons. If these forecasts are confirmed by subsequent events, there might be a slight deficit by the end of 1950.
These world trends may be accompanied by certain shifts in the geographical distribution of wood pulp production and consumption. Despite capacity increases, North America's output in 1949 is expected, for economic reasons, to remain below the previous year; this reduction would be offset by a projected increase in European production of 900,000 tons. In 1950 European production is expected to expand by another 600,000 tons and North American production by 1.3 million tons.
It is expected that European requirements will show a very much quicker expansion than European production, with the result that Europe's net surplus available for export from current production of wood pulp would decline from 1 million tons in 1948 to 550 thousand tons in 1949 to some 200,000 tons in 1950. To the extent that currency considerations compel European producers to give priority to whatever they can sell for dollars, the supplies of wood pulp available to Europe from European production might fall below effective requirements unless the production in northern Europe is correspondingly increased. If, on the other hand, European requirements were fully met, this might curtail substantially Europe's possibilities of securing dollars and other non-European currencies through pulp exports.
In North America also, market pulp requirements are likely to continue on a somewhat higher level than production. It is possible, however, that some of the resulting net import requirements may be met from accumulated stocks; it should further be remembered that North American requirements are calculated on the assumption of full employment and other economic conditions which may not occur.
TABLE 1. - WORLD PULP BALANCE1
---None, small, or not available.
1 The forward estimates are based on varying hypothetical assumptions as to prevailing economic conditions in the various countries of the world.
2 Maximum. Only one figure was given for production.
3 Baltic Republics.
4 Based on maximum production estimates for the United States
5 As indicated in the text, it is generally expected that North America will continue to show a net import balance. The calculation on which these surplus figures are based assumes that maximum production will occur, which is not necessarily true. The surplus indicated here results only from the mathematical calculations.
It should be understood that the figures just quoted refer to net balances and do not indicate actual imports or exports. Indeed, in the case of North America, it is estimated that actual pulp imports from Europe might be in the order of 300,000 to 500,000 tons in both 1949 and 1950, while at the same time total North American overseas exports might be in the order of 250,000 tons, or at about the same level as in 1947 and 1948. This suggests that no substantial quantities of North American pulp will be offered to the traditional markets for European pulp and that the fears of European producers in that connection are unfounded. American purchases of European wood pulp are likely to be substantially larger than the quantities to be shipped from North America to continental Europe.
It should be stressed that the temporary surplus experienced at the end of 1948 referred only to effective demand, and that Europe and large portions of Asia were actually suffering from shortage of paper and other pulp products which were insufficient to meet the desires of the press and other consumers. Although the lack of purchasing power and currency restrictions which accounted for this situation are likely to continue, reductions in the prices of pulps and larger available supplies should, in the near future, somewhat ease the acute shortage of newsprint and other papers in war-affected regions.
The Conference devoted considerable attention to the prospective wood pulp situation in 1955 and even attempted to make certain estimates which are summarized by regions in the various tables of this report. These figures should be considered with extreme caution, not only in view of their tentative nature but because only a limited number of countries were prepared to present estimates. Hence the Conference had to take on itself the task of assessing the future developments in a number of countries some of which, like Sweden and Finland, are among the most important wood pulp producers.
A further general qualification of all figures for 1955 is necessary as a result of the usual tendency in forward estimates to exaggerate future requirements and to underestimate prospective production. Allowance for this error suggests that the two percent deficit between world requirements and production in 1955 shown in Table 1 is not likely to occur, and that a satisfactory balance between production and requirements may be anticipated for 1955 if the assumptions underlying the estimates in Table 1 are realized and the necessary pulpwood is available.
Finally, it should be stressed that the figures listed for 1955 do not represent forecasts in the usual sense, but rather indicate expectations for the production and consumption of wood pulp in individual countries. These expectations are based for many countries on the assumption of full employment and continued economic expansion, and are bound to undergo modification under the impact of subsequent developments, including considerations arising from the balance of payments of various countries. Moreover, forecasts may be revised in some important respects in the light of the findings of this Conference. Since it was the purpose of the Conference to attempt a regional and world-wide review of programs for wood pulp production and distribution, a revision of these expectations as a result of its findings would implement one of the major purposes which it hopes to achieve.
Consumer Needs
Pulp requirements arise from the needs of paper and other industries manufacturing an ever-growing variety of pulp products such as newsprint, other printing and writing papers, wrappings, paperboard, building boards, rayon, etc. The output and hence the requirements of these pulp and processing industries is in turn determined by the effective demand of consumers for their products.
Without attempting an assessment of consumer needs1 for paper and other pulp products, the Conference felt that the trend of pulp requirements for the period 1948-1955, as shown in Table 1, appears adequate to cover the needs of consumers in different parts of the world in terms of effective demand and purchasing capacity. It appears unlikely that substantially larger amounts of paper and other pulp products could be imported and bought even if they were available. On the other hand, the Conference was not certain whether pulp production in 1955 would actually reach the projected levels, mainly on account of raw material shortages in Europe and Japan which are discussed later in this report.
1 "Needs" is used in this section to indicate consumer requirements irrespective of economic or physical possibilities for meeting them.
A more detailed examination of needs for pulp products was beyond the scope of the present Conference. To assess these needs it would be necessary to consider not only the desirable and the possible trends in the consumption of paper for educational purposes and for packaging, and in the manufacture of rayon for clothing and for industrial purposes, but also to determine the extent to which the purchasing power of consumers and the balance of payment of countries that import paper and rayon would make it possible to meet these needs.
Moreover, increasing amounts of straw, bamboo, waste paper, and other raw materials are used in addition to wood pulp for papermaking, and all these materials must be taken into consideration in any attempt to establish a balance for paper and other pulp products. These additional raw materials, although of agricultural or forestry origin, were not included in the terms of reference of the present Conference, which was therefore unable to give to them that thorough consideration which their importance may justify.
The Conference, however, noted the concern of the Director-General of UNESCO about the fact that cultural progress in the less developed countries is delayed through inadequate supplies of printing papers while, in many of the more advanced countries, postwar shortages of paper still interfere with the normal functioning of the press and the restoration of educational facilities.
The Conference was unanimous in appreciating the importance of adequate paper supplies for mass education and information and agreed that larger paper supplies for these purposes are eminently desirable. Many delegates believe that an assessment of present and prospective consumer needs for pulp products would constitute a valuable supplement to the information on wood pulp contained in the present report.
Production and Requirements
In addition to the general reservations that apply to all forecasts of requirements, the estimates of wood pulp requirements in 1955 attempted by the Conference call for further qualification. For many years pulp producers have attempted to integrate their operations with the manufacture of newsprint, paperboard, and a few other mass products in a continuous-flow operation. This tendency is not only in line with the general economic policy of countries to produce fully manufactured rather than partially manufactured products, but also tends to render the production process more efficient and to reduce shipping costs.
In pursuance of this policy the major pulp producing countries have undoubtedly included in their forward estimates for pulp requirements provision for additional exports of finished products. This may reduce the export possibilities of countries which had hitherto imported substantial amounts of pulp for reexport in the form of paper and similar products, but it is unlikely that these reductions were fully considered by the latter group; the requirement estimates in Table 1 might therefore be on the high side.
It should also be remembered that a number of less developed countries are about to set up their own pulp industries which would supply local paper mills which hitherto had to import all their wood pulp from Europe and North America.
The Conference believes that these tendencies toward the local integration of pulp and paper manufacture, while perhaps inevitable, may endanger the continued existence of converting industries in a number of pulp importing countries. The Conference envisages the maintenance of pulp exports at levels which would permit the continued activity of existing pulp converting industries, but calls attention to the danger of any expansion of pulp converting industries in countries which do not have an assured and continuous supply of pulp from domestic or nearby sources.
With due consideration to the preceding qualifications, Table 1 indicates that pulp requirements in 1955 will be roughly 10 million tons or almost 40 percent higher than in 1948. This increase at an annual rate of about 5 percent is indeed very substantial, especially when compared to an increase of only 3.7 million tons or 15 percent between 1937 and 1948, corresponding to an annual expansion of 1 ½ percent. It is true that the past 11 years have been disturbed by a world war whereas the forecasts for 1955 assume a period of peaceful expansion.
The Conference estimates show approximate equilibrium between world production and requirements for 1948 to 1955. If these figures are confirmed by subsequent developments, there should be no major wood pulp surplus or deficit during the period under review.
On the other hand the estimates indicate a significant change in the world distribution of wood pulp as shown in Table 2.
The Conference estimates indicate a change in Europe's position in the world pulp picture. Before the war this continent was the major source of wood pulp exports to the rest of the world with a net export of roughly two and one-half million tons. At present, Europe is still a net exporter of wood pulp although on a smaller scale, but European requirements by 1955, according to Table 1, would be in excess of European production. Such a situation, if it should develop, could be corrected by smaller over-all requirements or by such increases in the wood pulp production in northern Europe as may be necessitated by economic circumstances and by consideration of commercial policy. Yet, according to general trends, each of the major regions of the world would have to supply by 1955 most of its own pulp, notwithstanding the possible continuation of certain transoceanic pulp shipments.
The Conference has tentatively estimated wood pulp exports of the U.S.S.R. at 200 thousand tons for 1955. It believes that this is a cautious estimate and that a substantially larger supply might be forthcoming from this source.
Between 1948 and 1955, North America's wood pulp requirements show an increase of 4.5 million tons or 23 percent compared to an estimated 80 percent increase for Europe and even larger proportional increases for Oceania, Asia, and Latin America. The gradual leveling off of the rising curve in North America's pulp requirements must be attributed mainly to the exceptional increase during the first postwar years, whereas, conversely, European output from 1946 through 1948 was restricted by raw material shortages and other post-war conditions.
In 1955 world pulp consumption may be roughly 50 percent higher than in 1937; but Europe's requirements for the same period may only be expected to increase by 19 percent and Asia's requirements may still be down by 40 percent.
Raw Materials
The Conference was in unanimous agreement that no pulp factory should be built without being assured of a continuous supply of raw materials based on sustained forest yield. In general, pulp should be produced where mills can be supplied with pulpwood in an economical way.
TABLE 2. - DISTRIBUTION OF WOOD PULP CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION, BY REGIONS
|
Regions |
1937 |
1948 |
1955 |
|||
|
Consumption |
Production |
Consumption |
Production |
Consumption |
Production |
|
|
Europe |
42 |
49 |
25 |
29 |
31 |
30 |
|
Near East |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
North America |
51 |
46 |
70 |
68 |
63 |
65 |
|
Latin America |
1 |
- |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Africa |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Asia |
6 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Oceania |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
- Less than 1 percent.
There are exceptions to this rule: e.g., the transport cost of wet pulp is so high that it is cheaper to import pulpwood; it also might be necessary to maintain in existence, for social, political, and humanitarian reasons, established pulp mills which have to rely on pulpwood imported from considerable distances. Such mills may eventually be able to replace imported pulpwood with other raw materials from nearer sources, although such a replacement would presumably entail considerable investment in new equipment.
In this connection, progress in the manufacture of pulp from temperate zone hardwoods, tropical woods, residual straws, and grasses warranted particular consideration by special working groups of the Conference.
Table 3 reveals for 1955 a prospective trade deficit of from 6 to 7 million cubic meters; additional imports of that magnitude would be needed to achieve the anticipated pulp production of 36.9 million tons. This trade deficit and the shortages of pulpwood supplies in Europe and Japan do not mean that it would be impossible to attain by 1955 a world production of 36 million tons of pulp or even more. But the figures assembled in Table 3 indicate that, unless prospective supplies of pulpwood or other fibrous materials can be increased through large imports from the Soviet Union or by technical improvements, such as integration of forest industries, a considerable change in the location of pulp capacity may have to take place if the anticipated production is to be reached. To explore this problem further the Conference decided to review the position by regions.
Europe
Last year's pulp production in Europe was not quite two-thirds of prewar, but by 1955 European nations expect to regain 90 percent of their prewar output. This would require approximately 48 million cubic meters of pulpwood which, according to Table 3, exceed European pulpwood supplies by roughly 3.6 million cubic meters. This situation exists in spite of the fact that for the continent of Europe taken as a whole forests are at present being overcut to the extent of 20 percent of annual growth. In some cases,
TABLE 3. - PULPWOOD: MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS AND SUPPLIES1
NOTE: This table is based on minimum estimates of future consumption rather than a maximum estimate. The difference between minimum and maximum totals for Europe where the most critical pulpwood situation exists is relatively small. The difference between minimum requirements for the United States on the other hand is relatively large. Use of maximum estimates on a world-wide basis, therefore, might give an apparent world import deficit of pulpwood so large as to appear unrealistic.
---None, small, or not available.
1 The forward estimates are based upon varying hypothetical assumptions as to prevailing economic conditions in the various countries of the world.
2 "Others" include Portugal, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Rumania. Some of these may have export surpluses; but the group also includes the Netherlands which will require imports of at least 500,000 cubic meters by 1955.
3 Includes Newfoundland.
4 Japan proper. however, and in particular in northern Europe, annual drain is in line with annual growth.
In prewar years, Europe's pulp industry relied on an annual import of 3 million cubic meters of pulpwood which came almost entirely from the present area of the Soviet Union. The Conference feels that a resumption of pulpwood exports from the U.S.S.R. on the prewar scale is unlikely.
In that case, Germany, France, and, to a smaller degree, the United Kingdom and Switzerland might be compelled to reduce their production below the 1955 estimates.
It should be stressed that if lack of pulpwood compels European nations to reduce pulp production approximately one million tons these countries might need to import more pulp or paper from the Western hemisphere. If such additional imports were to offset the reduction in pulp output, the result at present prices would be a deterioration of Europe's dollar position by an amount well in excess of 100 million dollars. If, on the other hand, European countries could find the necessary pulpwood or other raw material to maintain production, such imports, if obtained from eastern Europe, would cause no dollar drain; if the pulpwood were supplied from North America, it would create a dollar liability at the maximum in the order of 20 to 30 million dollars.
It is possible that an increase in the raw material supplies for European mills can be achieved to some extent by closer utilization of sawmill waste, greater use of hardwoods and alternative raw materials, the introduction of high yield pulping methods, and possible diversion of some fuelwood or other timber to the pulp mills. The active programs of research under way in Finland, Sweden, and other countries may lead to more efficient use of raw materials. Further wood pulp capacity, either newly built or transferred from other areas, might be supported in certain central and eastern European countries which at present do not make full use of smaller wood from their forests or the wood refuse from their sawmills.
U.S.S.R.
No detailed information is available with regard to the pulp capacity or production of the Soviet Union. Before the war that capacity amounted to approximately one million tons annually and it is understood that great efforts are being made to expand the pulp and paper industry as rapidly as possible. It is known that the undeveloped forests of the Soviet Union are of enormous extent, consequently the prospects for future output are very high. On the other hand, Soviet reports indicate that the forests of western Russia were seriously overcut for many years prior to 1936 and war damage in that region was undoubtedly great. In consequence, it is not impossible that all the pulpwood that can be produced west of the Urals will be needed for domestic production.
North America
The consumption of pulpwood in North America increased by 75 percent from 1937 to 1949 and a further increase of 20 percent is anticipated by 1955. Canada exports large quantities of pulpwood to the United States and small amounts across the Atlantic, but no pulpwood is imported from other regions. It is believed that forest resources now accessible are capable of maintaining supplies of wood adequate for current production levels. From the medium and long-term points of view, great opportunities exist for still further expansion as more and more of the forest area is subjected to improved forest management and to more adequate protection against fire, insects, and diseases, and the industry makes greater use of hardwoods and wood now wasted and introduces high yield pulping methods. In addition, there remain large forest areas not yet fully utilized, notably in the northern parts of Canada, Alaska, and portions of the Rocky Mountain area. Plans for bringing the forests of Alaska into production are already far advanced.
Near East and North Africa
There is no wood pulp production in this region because of almost complete lack of forest resources. The only country where small-scale development might be possible is Turkey. All paper requirements of the region must be imported.
Africa (except North Africa)
A small quantity of chemical pulp is produced in the Union of South Africa, wood supplies being obtained from plantations of "exotic" species. While it is understood that some expansion of capacity is contemplated in the Union, all of it will be needed for home consumption. In the remainder of the continent there are estimated to be about 300 million hectares of forests of productive quality, but virtually the whole area is occupied by broadleaved species. Much of it is tropical rain forest. The problems of adapting such species to the commercial production of pulp have not yet been fully solved, nor had a systematic program of research been undertaken until recently. The Conference noted with great interest a report by the French Delegation regarding the successful conclusion of experiments for the pulping of a considerable number of species. Mixtures of as many as 24 tropical species have been successfully digested in a commercial plant in France and sample lots of good paper have been made from the resulting pulp. A pilot mill is under construction on the Ivory Coast to determine the practical possibilities on a commercial scale.
Latin America
The population of this region, estimated to be 150 million people, is about equal to that of North America, yet pulp production is very small. The larger part of it is carried on in Brazil and Mexico, and is based upon raw materials from local coniferous forests. Latin America, however, contains about 715 million hectares of productive forest land, although only 3 ½ percent of this vast area carries conifers. Here, as in Africa, the possibilities for augmenting world pulp supplies are enormous providing that the social, technical, and economic problems connected with the utilization of tropical forests can be solved.
Asia and Far East
Pulp production in Asia fell from 1.5 million tons in 1937 to 0.5 million tons in 1948, largely because of the changed situation in Japan. Reports indicate that Japanese forests have for some years been heavily overcut and until the benefits of reforestation have been realized the prospects for obtaining more pulpwood are negligible. Plans to increase Japanese pulp output to 880,000 tons by 1955 depend on the possibilities of securing large imports of pulpwood not yet in sight, or on developing alternative raw materials such as rice straw.
In India, at least one new pulp mill is planned for erection in the near future, but in most parts of the country the local forest resources appear insufficient to support a large wood pulp industry in addition to other demands of the increasing population. The Conference was advised that there are large forest resources of species highly suitable for pulp manufacture in the North, and that the real difficulty at the moment is the lack of accessibility to such regions.
The situation in China precludes any estimate of future possibilities. It is believed that here again there are substantial forests located in areas very remote and difficult of access, but in the thickly populated areas the supplies of wood which might be converted into pulp are small. It is possible that substantial pulp production may eventually be developed on the basis of bamboo.
In other countries of Asia, including Burma, Thailand, Indochina, Malaya, and the Philippines, there are extensive forests, but most of these are broadleaved types. Indonesia also has vast tropical forests and, in addition, a considerable area of pine. Plans for a sulphate mill to be supplied by this pine were interrupted by the war but are once more under active study.
Oceania (Australia and New Zealand)
The Conference was informed that the present small production in New Zealand of 24,000 tons annually is to be increased to 135.000 tons by 1955 and may eventually reach 250,000 tons. This development is made possible by the extensive "exotic" forests of insignia pine and other conifers, whose rate of yield under New Zealand conditions is phenomenally high.
Australia produced 136,000 tons of pulp in 1948 and expects to increase her output to 210,000 tons by 1955. This will be done entirely on the basis of domestic forests. In view of their active forestry programs, it seems possible that the principal countries of this region may eventually be able to supply all or most of their own requirements for pulp.
World Trade in Wood Pulp
In 1948 world trade in pulp was still only around 70 percent of prewar. The reduction was attributable entirely to Europe with exports below 60 percent of 1937 and imports on a slightly higher level.
Despite this decline, Europe remains the center of world pulp export trade. In 1937 pulp exports came from only two regions and of these Europe accounted for 80 percent, with North America contributing the rest. It should be stressed that both in Europe and in North America most of the pulp trade takes place within each continent. Before the war, only a very slight percentage of North America's pulp exports were exported from this continent, and less than one-third of European exports went overseas. Yet with these exports Europe, and in particular the Scandinavian countries, practically covered the pulp import needs of the rest of the world.
In 1948 Europe's pulp exports had fallen from 80 percent to 60 percent of the world total but were still roughly twice as high as North America's. Since most of North America's pulp exports continued to move between Canada and the United States, Europe retained its position as the major source of market for all continents except North America.
Conference estimates indicate a gradual expansion of world pulp trade. In 1949 and 1950 it is anticipated that total exports will remain around 80 percent of prewar, but they are expected to exceed the 1937 figures by some 10 percent around 1955. Europe would account for not quite 60 percent of that total, and the remaining 40 percent would be contributed by North American exports. If this assumption proves right, it will mean that North American pulp exports will no longer be mainly confined to intra-continental movements.
At present, monetary restrictions, currency fluctuations, and artificial exchange rates are distorting the distribution of market pulps throughout the world. Until some over-all solution of these distorting factors is achieved, both producers and consumers of wood pulp everywhere face constantly changing conditions which interfere with normal trade.
Production of pulpwood
International trade in pulpwood
Outlook for pulpwood supplies in principal producing countries
The world outlook
The need for improved forest inventories
Current Consumption and Future Outlook - A report by FAO to the Montreal Conference
BEFORE entering into a discussion of pulpwood consumption and supplies, it is desirable to take note of certain characteristics of the wood pulp industry, and of the current demand for pulp and its products, which are specially significant from the forestry point of view.
First, the modern pulp mill represents a large amount of fixed capital. If pulp mill and paper mill are combined, the investment tied up in one place is very much larger. Such investments can only be liquidated over considerable periods of time, consequently the builders of a pulp mill must be assured of an adequate and permanent supply of raw material. Thus the pulp industry is specially dependent on forests managed on a sustained yield basis rather than on short-term liquidation of forest growing stock.
Second, the wood pulp industry in many countries has grown up in conjunction with the older sawmill industry. Very often it draws its raw material from the same forest that supplies sawlogs. Joint operation of pulp mill and sawmill facilitate use of sawmill waste for pulp manufacture. But the management of such a combined operation must, from time to time, decide on the most profitable basis for dividing supplies of raw material between the principal end products. What is true of a single venture may also apply at the national level.
Third, the wood pulp industry has expanded rapidly and there is every reason to expect that demand for its products will continue to grow.
Fourth, although at present the extraordinary demand for pulp in North America appears to be leveling off, the current level is a very high one. In Europe and in other regions effective demand is limited by lack of purchasing power and by exchange difficulties; but improvement of economic conditions in the countries concerned would certainly be followed by sharp increases in their demands for pulp or its products. Such increased demands may develop quickly, hence it is important to determine whether the forests now producing most of the world's pulpwood could, in their present condition, sustain an increased drain.
Estimated world production of pulpwood in 1947 was 119 million m³® or about 46 million cords.1 In 1937 production was estimated to be 100 million m³®, indicating an increase of 19 percent in the ensuing decade. Production actually reported to FAO for 1947 totaled 96 million m³®, most of the estimated difference being attributable to the U.S.S.R., the Soviet Zone of Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rumania, and Yugoslavia, for which figures are not available.
1 m³® = cubic meter of roundwood, solid volume, without bark.
1 cord = 128 stacked cubic feet.
The significance of wood pulp in relation to total world consumption of forest products is shown by Table 1. Quantities are expressed in equivalent volumes of roundwood from which the various products were made.
TABLE 1. - ESTIMATED WORLD CONSUMPTION OF WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS, 1947
|
Commodity |
Equivalent Volume million m³® |
Percent of Total |
|
Fuelwood |
825 |
57 |
|
Sawn lumber |
360 |
25 |
|
Wood pulp |
119 |
8 |
|
Other industrial wood |
149 |
10 |
|
TOTAL |
1,453 |
100 |
In the absence of complete data it is estimated that about 56 percent of the world's pulpwood supply was produced in North America, 26 percent in Europe, 16 percent in the U.S.S.R., and 2 percent in all other regions.
Output of pulpwood in individual countries reporting to FAO is shown in Table 2. Other countries producing pulpwood but from which reports were not received, or which did not report pulpwood separately, include Argentina, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Czechoslovakia, India, Hungary, Pakistan, Rumania, Soviet Zone of Germany, U.S.S.R., and Yugoslavia.
Countries tabulated produce 80 percent of the world's pulpwood, at least four-fifths of the remainder being attributable to the U.S.S.R.
Available figures for 1947 indicate that 92 percent of all pulpwood was from coniferous species and only 8 percent from broadleaved trees.
TABLE 2. - PULPWOOD PRODUCTION, 1947 - Countries Reporting to FAO
|
Country |
Conifers (soft woods) |
Broadleaved (hardwoods) |
Total |
Percentage of total cut of all products |
||
|
1,000 m³ ® |
Percent |
|||||
|
Europe |
||||||
|
|
Austria |
749 |
53 |
802 |
7.9 |
|
|
|
Denmark |
4 |
- |
4 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
Finland |
9,000 |
- |
9,000 |
119.0 |
|
|
|
France |
593 |
35 |
628 |
2.8 |
|
|
|
Germany: |
|||||
|
|
|
Bizone |
1,418 |
266 |
1,684 |
4.5 |
|
|
|
French zone |
1,588 |
128 |
1,716 |
11.9 |
|
|
Italy |
92 |
128 |
220 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
Norway |
3,500 |
- |
3.500 |
135.0 |
|
|
|
Poland |
518 |
2 |
520 |
4.6 |
|
|
|
Sweden |
9,000 |
300 |
9,300 |
24.7 |
|
|
|
Switzerland |
197 |
197 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
|
United Kingdom |
216 |
- |
16 |
0.6 |
|
|
Near East and North Africa |
||||||
|
|
Turkey |
43 |
- |
43 |
0.6 |
|
|
North America |
||||||
|
|
Canada |
26,693 |
1,204 |
27,897 |
33.0 |
|
|
|
Newfoundland3 |
2,265 |
- |
2,265 |
62.2 |
|
|
|
United states |
31,718 |
5,154 |
36,872 |
13.3 |
|
|
Latin America |
||||||
|
|
Mexico |
14 |
- |
14 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
Brazil |
103 |
25 |
128 |
0.1 |
|
|
Africa |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Union of S. Africa |
7 |
- |
7 |
0.4 |
|
|
South and East Asia |
||||||
|
|
Japan |
741 |
39 |
780 |
2.0 |
|
|
|
Southern Korea |
7 |
- |
7 |
0.2 |
|
|
Oceania |
||||||
|
|
Australia |
57 |
312 |
369 |
2.6 |
|
|
|
New Zealand |
26 |
- |
26 |
0.9 |
|
- None.
1 Estimated from incomplete data.
2 State forests only.
3 Now a Province of Canada.
The major international movement of pulpwood in 1947 was from Canada to the United States. Shipments were in the order of 6,000,000 m³®. There were also small shipments of pulpwood in the opposite direction. This trade, which in 1947 accounted for somewhere between 70 and 75 percent of all international movements of pulpwood, is of long standing, but the probabilities are that its volume will be reduced in future. For example, the Province of Ontario announced two years ago that exports of pulpwood from its publicly owned forests would gradually be eliminated within a ten-year period.
Second in-importance as an importer of pulpwood in 1947 stood France, which received 962,000 m³® from Germany, 21,000 from Canada, 19,000 from Finland, and 9,000 from Switzerland.
Finland reported exports of 209,000 m³® to the U.S.S.R., with smaller shipments to European countries totaling 91,000 m³®.
Sweden reported imports of 202,000 m³® from Norway and shipments to Norway of 105,000 m³®, giving an import balance of 97,000 m³®.
Switzerland received 133,000 m³ ®, and Austria 81,000 m³®, from neighboring countries.
The Netherlands received 28,000 m³® from Canada and 21,000 from Finland.
The United Kingdom imported 163,000 m³® from Newfoundland and 2,000 m³® from Finland.
It is probable that the U.S.S.R. received some supplies of pulpwood from southeastern European countries, in addition to wood imported from Finland, but no information as to quantities is available.
New Zealand exported 2,000 m³® to Australia.
No exports or imports of pulpwood were reported from the Near East, Africa, Latin America, or Asia.
These brief notes practically cover the whole of international trade in pulpwood. They lead to certain important conclusions:
1. Only about 6 percent of the pulpwood produced moved across national boundaries in its unmanufactured state. Three-quarters of this small fraction is accounted for by United States imports from Canada.2. Only 227,000 m³® were exported across the ocean.
3. From the above it may be concluded that under certain circumstances it is mutually profitable to move pulpwood from one country to another, within a region; but ocean shipments are very small. It appears that each major region of the world must rely primarily for its pulpwood supplies on forests within its own borders.
4. There is a growing tendency for individual countries to manufacture their own raw materials, including pulpwood.
Since all signs point to an increased demand for wood pulp in the years to come, it is necessary to examine the relationship between the current rate of consumption of the raw material, pulpwood, and the rates of production (or growth) in the forests now supplying it. We have seen that more than 90 percent of the output is now taken from coniferous or softwood forests.
It cannot be emphasized too strongly that it is quite impossible to discuss forest productivity in terms of pulpwood alone. Instead, we must consider the capacity of forests to withstand, without suffering devastation, the joint demands made upon them for sawlogs, other industrial wood, fuelwood, and pulpwood.
In the following discussion the term "net growth" will be understood to mean the difference between total growth and natural losses caused by fire, insects, disease, and windstorms. It is "net growth" which must offset the volume of fellings. But fellings actually permitted within an individual forest may differ from estimated net growth in order to implement plans for improvement of the condition of the forest.
If net growth and drain for all products are equal, then an immediately increased supply of pulpwood can only be obtained from that forest by diverting part of the sawlogs, fuelwood, or other products to the pulp mill, or by deliberately overcutting. The latter policy, if persisted in, will inevitably lead to the destruction of the forest. In the long run, it is possible to alter the management of the forest so as to increase the output of pulpwood, but this would ordinarily imply a corresponding reduction in sawlog supplies.
The following notes on individual countries, then, refer to production of all forest products, rather than to production of pulpwood alone. They are based on statistics appearing in FAO's Yearbook of Forest Products Statistics - 1948 and in the statement "Forest Resources of the World."2 In a few cases it has been necessary to draw on other sources in order to obtain a reasonable estimate of the current position.
2 Unasylva II, 4, p. 161.
European Countries
Austria. Total fellings in 1947 exceeded net growth by 10 percent.
Denmark. According to reports received, growth and fellings are practically in balance.
Finland. A report published by the Bank of Finland states that annual average fellings during the period 194547 amounted to 48 million m³®, as compared with annual growth of 41 million m³®, indicating an overcut in the order of 17 percent. A report for 1948 indicates that growth and fellings were in balance last year.
France. Volume of production in 1947 was reported to be 22.6 million m³®, as compared with net growth of 28.6 million. Since there are known to be important differences in methods of computing wood volumes for industrial and forestry purposes and forestry statistics show average annual deficits in the order of 8 percent for the decade 1937-46, the apparent surplus in 1947 should be viewed with reserve. It seems unlikely that France is in a position to increase her pulpwood output at the present time.
Germany - Bizone. Fellings exceeded growth by 140 percent.
Germany - French Zone. Fellings exceeded growth by 185 percent.
Italy. Estimates for annual growth are not available, but partial information indicates that an increase in the 1947 felling rate should not be contemplated.
Norway. It is estimated that net growth and fellings are approximately in balance.
Poland. Fellings exceeded growth by 11 percent.
Sweden. Production was reported to be 37.6 million m³®, as compared with net growth of 45.6 million m³ ®, indicating a surplus of 18 percent. It is understood, however, that the surplus accrues mainly in the southern part of the country and that some curtailment of pulpwood fellings has become necessary in the north.
Switzerland. Fellings exceeded growth by nearly 50 percent.
United Kingdom. Reports of fellings in 1947 are incomplete; but the devastation of the forests during the war makes it certain that the United Kingdom will be unable to increase pulpwood output substantially for many years to come.
Summary for Europe
The above notes show that most of the European countries mentioned overcut their forests in 1947, the exceptions being Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden. Even in these four countries the possibilities of increasing pulpwood output in the immediate future are slight. For the group of countries as a whole, a reduction in the current rate of total fellings seems imperative. In 1948 the European Forestry and Forest Products Commission estimated that the forests of the continent were being overcut to the extent of 20 percent of net growth.
While the need for lumber, pitprops, railway sleepers, poles, piling, and other products for reconstruction of war damage and further industrial development remains acute, increase of domestic supplies of pulpwood seems extremely difficult.
On the other hand, pulpwood comprises only about 11 percent of Europe's total fellings, and most of it is taken from the smaller trees, including thinnings. Therefore, it may be possible to maintain pulpwood supplies at the 1947 level even if some reduction in total output is effected in order to give the forests a chance to recuperate from overcutting and neglect during the war years.
Forest inventory statements received from 17 European countries show that overcutting exists in the broadleaved portion of the forests as well as in the conifers - hence there is little possibility of obtaining more pulpwood through more extensive use of the broadleaved species in the pulping processes. In certain localities this course may prove practicable, but for the continent as a whole it holds little promise.
The seriousness of the European pulpwood situation, from an industrial point of view, arises from the fact that full use of installed capacity in 11 of the countries3 listed in Table 2 would require 39.8 million m³® of pulpwood annually, as compared with actual consumption in 1947 of about 25.1 million. These figures are based on conversion of quantities of pulp capacity and production appearing in the report "World Wood Pulp Data, 1947-48"4 to equivalent volumes of roundwood. Furthermore, European pulp output in 1948 was nearly 10 percent higher than in the previous year. On the basis of 1947 figures the increase in pulpwood supplies required for full use of existing capacity in the above-mentioned countries would be nearly 60 percent. Obviously, no such expansion of output can be obtained from forests already being overcut.
3 Data are not available for Poland.
4 By the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association and the United States Pulp Producer's is Association.
Aside from further forest devastation, there appear to be only three short-term possibilities for obtaining additional wood. The first of these lies in more complete utilization of sawmill waste. Such utilization of waste is already highly developed in the three northern countries - Finland, Norway, and Sweden - which possess 77 percent of the total capacity; but possibilities in this direction should be explored, especially in central and eastern Europe.
The second possibility is increase of imports. For economic reasons, these must come chiefly from eastern European countries or the Soviet Union. In 1936 the U.S.S.R. and Baltic States, Czechoslovakia, and Poland exported 2.9 million m³ ® to Germany and 1.4 million m³ ® to western European countries. Even if this trade could be restored to the relatively high 1936 level, it would fall far short of meeting the needs of installed capacity. In view of the efforts being made to develop manufacturing industries in former pulpwood exporting countries, the prospects for increased exports to the west are not too encouraging at the moment.
The third possibility is that of diverting part of the wood now used for fuel to the production of pulp. This course was followed by Germany with considerable success before the war, but requires the supply of additional mineral fuel.
It seems that we must accept the fact that the wood pulp industry of western and northern Europe, including Germany, is seriously overbuilt. This does not mean, of course, that no opportunities exist for erecting new mills in selected localities on the continent, and partial information available at this time suggests that such developments may be possible in central and eastern Europe. Probably redistribution of some of the excess capacity would be beneficial, and at least one transfer of a closed mill, from Sweden to Yugoslavia, has been reported to be under consideration.
The average rate of growth in the forests of Europe is about 2.2 m³® per hectare, and it is believed that eventually it may be possible to increase the average to 3.0 m³®, or by 36 percent, through the adoption of suitable measures in the forests. This, however, will take much time as well as much effort. Comparison of this percentage increase with the increase of nearly 60 percent in pulpwood supplies needed to fully utilize existing pulp capacity indicates that, even if imports into western Europe can be increased substantially, the existing level of capacity should not be increased.
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
Direct reports from the U.S.S.R. are not available. However, a book published last year by two Russian forest economists, states that the area of "continuous" forest is 700 million hectares, annual growth is 700 to 800 million m³®, and planned output of all forest products in 1950 will be 280 million m³®. Planned deliveries to the pulp and paper industry are to be from 30 to 35 million cubic meters.
Comparison of the planned output with estimated present growth indicates the immense possibilities for expansion that exist. Furthermore, it seems likely that, when all productive forests are brought under management, the annual growth figure can be substantially increased.
Unfortunately, there is no way of estimating what supplies of pulpwood or of pulp and pulp products European countries may expect to import from the U.S.S.R. in the near or distant future.
North America
Canada. Up to the present time, it is only possible to estimate by indirect means the relationship between total growth in the forests and total drain due to natural causes and fellings. Replacement of drain requires an average growth of less than 1 m³® per hectare - a figure which may be compared with national averages of from 2.0 to 2.2 m³® per hectare in the Scandinavian countries. It seems probable that given more intensive forest management including reduction of the high annual losses from forest fires and other natural causes, and with the opening up of nearly 100 million hectares of productive forest now classed as inaccessible, Canada will eventually be able to sustain in perpetuity an output of forest products of more than double the present volume.
More definite estimates of current growth are needed, although the difficulty of making them under conditions existing in Canada is very great. Until the actual average rates of forest production are known with reasonable accuracy, further expansion of forest industry may be hazardous.
United States of America. A reappraisal of the forest situation in the United States, published last year by the U.S. Forest Service, indicates that total growth and total drain are more or less in balance. There is, however, an indicated overcut of 23 percent in the coniferous forests which provide 85 percent of all the pulpwood cut. This is approximately offset by an undercut of broadleaved species. But the larger sizes of trees which currently make up a major part of the pulpwood supply are being overcut at the rate of 50 percent.
Evidently, there are opportunities for expanding the supply of broadleaved pulpwood; but even the current deficit on the coniferous side of the account has a different significance from that in Europe. Forest management in the United States is as yet only in its beginnings and, in some regions, utilization can be greatly intensified. For example, if actual shortages of pulpwood should threaten in the great pine forests of the South, large additional yields of coniferous pulpwood could be obtained in two or three decades from new plantations. On the West Coast more complete harvesting of small logs left behind by mechanized logging of virgin timber could yield important additional supplies of pulp species. A start in this direction has been made; also, new pulp mills have been erected near large sawmills and obtain part of their raw material from sawmill waste.
The U.S. Forest Service estimates that domestic production of pulpwood, which amounted to 36.9 million m³® in 1947, can be increased sufficiently through intensified forest management and more complete utilization of hardwoods and sawmill refuse to meet an estimated requirement of 102.0 million m³® by the end of this century. It is noteworthy that, while annual pulpwood requirements are expected to increase by nearly 180 percent within the next 50 years, requirements for sawn lumber are expected to remain more or less stable and the output of fuelwood to decrease.
Other Producing Countries
Japan. During recent years the drain on the forest has exceeded annual growth by 100 percent, and this situation is still continuing.
Union of South Africa. Average fellings in 1947 were slightly less than net growth. The pulpwood cut is small and there are no prospects of future export surpluses.
Australia. Available figures indicate an overcut of 62 percent in 1947. This conclusion is tentative and may be revised after further investigation.
New Zealand. Current estimates indicate an overcut of more than 100 percent, for the country as a whole. But the output of pulpwood, which comprised less than 1 percent of total fellings, can probably be increased very considerably, since all of this product is taken from extensive plantations of Pinus radiata and other conifers, and these plantations grow at phenomenally high rates.
Information is not available for other pulpwood producing countries but in most of them pulpwood is, up to the present time, a relatively insignificant source of drain on the forests.
Summing up the forestry situation in the regions reviewed, it appears that there are great long-term possibilities for expansion of the wood pulp industry in North America and in the U.S.S.R. Europe may be unable to increase domestic supplies of pulpwood above the 1947 level, at least for some time to come. The principal countries of Oceania have not yet developed their pulpwood supplies and the pulp industries sufficiently to cover regional needs, and Japan will be unable to expand current production on the basis of her own forests.
No prospects exist for any considerable production of pulpwood in the Near East and North Africa.
In South and East Asia the immense populations of China, India, and Pakistan exert great pressure on their limited forest resources. Some expansion of wood pulp production seems certain to take place in all three countries, but it is likely to be small in relation to population. In these countries there should be great opportunities for the development of large pulp industries using bamboo as the principal raw material. In other countries - Burma, Indochina, Indonesia, Malaya, the Philippines, and Thailand - there are more or less extensive forests but no wood pulp industries. In these countries coniferous forests are of very limited size or entirely lacking and any future wood pulp production must be from tropical broadleaved forests or, perhaps, from planted exotics.
There remain the immense forest regions of Latin America and Africa.
In 1948 combined production of chemical and mechanical wood pulp in Latin America totaled 190,000 metric tons, of which Brazil produced 105,000 tons and Mexico 65,000 tons. The remainder was produced in Chile and Argentina. Installed capacity in the region was sufficient for the production of 255,000 tons.
Brazil reported production of 128,000 m³® of pulpwood and Mexico only 14,000 m³®. Most of this wood was of coniferous species.
The estimated area of productive forests in Latin America is 715 million hectares, which compares with 456 million hectares in North America, but only about 3 ½ percent of its forest is of coniferous species. Most of the forests are of extremely complex tropical types.
In Africa (exclusive of North Africa) there are nearly 300 million hectares of productive forest, mostly of tropical types and with virtually no conifers.
Up to the present time the problems of using tropical forests as a source of raw material for the wood pulp industry have not been fully solved, but it is here that the last great reserves of wood are to be found. The world's growing needs for pulp emphasize the need for energetic programs of research into ways and means, both technical and economic, for bringing these vast forests into production. The growing use of broadleaved species for pulp in the North Temperate Zone, Australia's successful use of eucalyptus for both chemical and mechanical pulp, and encouraging results of recent experiments on a semi-commercial scale in France, suggest that the tropical difficulties will ultimately be overcome.
The successful use of plantations of exotic pulpwood in New Zealand has been mentioned. It is likely that the same procedure can be adopted in many other countries particularly those of the Southern Hemisphere.
The preliminary enquiry into world forest resources conducted by FAO points up the need for greatly improved inventories of forest resources in most parts of the world. While many countries have been able to give broad estimates of the extent of their forest areas, relatively few are as yet in a position to estimate timber volumes and annual growth with any degree of accuracy.
On the subject of volumes of standing timber it is particularly noteworthy that, of 101 countries who reported to FAO, 42 were unable to estimate timber volumes and less than 20 were in a position to classify their volumes as between trees of diameters above and below 25 cm. - a subject of considerable importance to the pulp industry. More detailed knowledge is needed to indicate what proportions of the annual yield are best suited for sawing and for pulping.
FAO is doing everything in its power to encourage the preparation of inventories in accordance with actual needs. Modern technical methods are being investigated, and other steps are being taken. Responsibility for carrying out actual surveys, of course, lies with the countries to whom the forests belong.
Until reasonably reliable information respecting the location, extent, nature, and productive capacities of the various forests becomes available, rational development of new forest industries will not be possible. Neither will the countries concerned be in a position to determine what contribution their forests can make to their national economies. It is hoped that the coming years will bring great progress in the surveying of forests, and corresponding improvements in forest management. If these things can be accomplished, forest industries will be given the necessary impetus towards further development, and more wood will become available for the satisfaction of human needs.
Production and consumption
Imports and exports
Outlook for 1949
Outlook for 1950
Influence of pulpwood on the pitprop market
Hardwood pitprops
Steel pitprops
1949 export availabilities
International trade in pitprops is on the whole limited to North America, which exports; Europe, which exports and imports; and the Near East, which imports. Some intraregional trade takes place in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, but most of the principal mining countries outside Europe, such as the United States, the U.S.S.R., India, and Australia, are self-sufficient.
The problem of securing sufficient supplies of pitprops is most acute in the coal-producing regions of Europe where there are traditional large-scale net importing countries. For this reason the Timber Committee of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) has had the situation under constant review. This report is limited primarily to Europe and to the current outlook for consumption and trade.1
1 See "Pitwood," Unasylva, Vol. II, No. 4 for information on international trade in pitprops for prewar years, 1946, and 1947. (Note that in Table 7 (p. 201) of that report the second column, showing stocks in mines, 1948, (as at 1 January) should read as follows: Austria, 16; Belgium, 887; Czechoslovakia, 215; France, 1,318; Italy, 126, Netherlands, 144 Poland, 333; Turkey, 121; United Kingdom, 2,006; Saar, 82, Bizone (Germany), 833, and Total, 6,081.)
Despite earlier fears to the contrary, European supplies of pitprops in 1948 proved adequate for the increased needs of the coal mines and other mining industries.
According to the ECE Coal Committee, hard coal production increased from 431 million metric tons in 1947 to 474 million metric tons in 1948, while the consumption of pitprops rose from 12.55 million m³ ® in 1947 to 13.08 million m³® in 1948.
TABLE 1. - PITWOOD CONSUMPTION COMPARED WITH HARD COAL PRODUCTION, 1947 AND 1948
|
Country |
Pitprop consumption |
Hard coal net pithead production |
||
|
1947 |
1948 |
1947 |
1948 |
|
|
1,000 m³ ® |
1,000 m. tons |
|||
|
Austria |
173 |
195 |
178 |
150 |
|
Belgium |
1,021 |
1,129 |
24,390 |
26,691 |
|
Czechoslovakia |
645 |
664 |
16,305 |
17,745 |
|
France |
2,358 |
45,235 |
45,100 |
|
|
Germany, Bizone |
2,646 |
2,984 |
71,129 |
87,033 |
|
Italy |
214 |
1180 |
1,355 |
975 |
|
Netherlands |
223 |
251 |
10,104 |
11,032 |
|
Poland |
1,934 |
59,130 |
70,262 |
|
|
Saar |
500 |
433 |
10,485 |
12,560 |
|
Turkey |
191 |
198 |
3,897 |
4,017 |
|
United Kingdom |
2,626 |
2,753 |
2 189,394 |
2 198,925 |
|
TOTAL |
12,552 |
13,079 |
431,602 |
474,490 |
SOURCE: ECE Coal Committee.
1 Estimated.
2 Excluding open cast.
Total pitprop supplies available for Europe rose from 13.8 million m³® in 1947 to 14.3 million m³® in 1948, permitting an accumulation of stocks at coal mines and with dealers.
The combined pitprop production of the main coal producing countries - Belgium, Czechoslovakia, France, Bizone, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom - was 9.9 million m³® in 1948, an increase of 30 percent over 1947 production of 7.6 million m³®. Almost the entire increase was in Bizone Germany, with smaller but considerable increases in Czechoslovakia and Poland.
As will be seen from Table 2, production in Italy, France, and the French Zone of Germany declined considerably, as did export production in Finland.
TABLE 2. - NEW SUPPLY, 1947-1950
|
Country |
1947 |
1948 |
11949 |
11950 |
|
|
1,000 m³® |
|||||
|
Austria |
212 |
257 |
260 |
280 |
|
|
Belgium |
650 |
700 |
700 |
600 |
|
|
Czechoslovakia |
351 |
1704 |
820 |
820 |
|
|
Finland (exports) |
1,610 |
1,278 |
1,100 |
900 |
|
|
France |
22,562 |
2,125 |
2,600 |
2,900 |
|
|
Germany: |
|||||
|
|
Bizone |
2,082 |
4,077 |
3,500 |
3,500 |
|
|
French Zone |
1,582 |
1,000 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
|
|
Soviet Zone |
692 |
- |
750 |
750 |
|
U.S.S.R. |
692 |
- |
750 |
750 |
|
|
Hungary |
197 |
1 100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
Ireland |
8 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
Italy |
320 |
126 |
180 |
190 |
|
|
Luxembourg |
65 |
77 |
85 |
50 |
|
|
Netherlands |
30 |
29 |
30 |
40 |
|
|
Norway (exports) |
96 |
78 |
80 |
|
|
|
Poland |
1,350 |
1,575 |
1,766 |
1,766 |
|
|
Portugal |
3 222 |
3 260 |
165 |
165 |
|
|
Saar |
- |
- |
30 |
30 |
|
|
Sweden |
220 |
195 |
660 |
400 |
|
|
Switzerland |
15 |
14 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
Turkey |
148 |
110 |
71 |
71 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
572 |
624 |
400 |
400 |
|
|
Yugoslavia. |
- |
- |
245 |
245 |
|
|
Canada (exports) |
870 |
958 |
700 |
800 |
|
|
TOTAL |
13,854 |
14,295 |
15,268 |
115,113 |
|
SOURCE: FAO/ECE Timber Committee.
--- Not available.
1 Estimated.
2 Includes 48,000 m³® of German production in 1946, And 2,000 m³® in 1947.
3 Estimate includes 122,000 ma® pitprops exported in 1947 and 160,000 m³® in 1948.
As pitprop production improved during 1948 in the main consuming countries, international trade decreased. According to the latest reported figures, European pitprop imports from all sources dropped from 4.8 million m³® in 1947, to 4.6 million m³® in 1948. Records of the exporting countries, however, show 1947 exports to European destinations to be 5.1 million m³ ® and 1948 exports as only 4.1 million m³®. The discrepancies between total import and total export figures result, in part, from different interpretations as to what constitutes pitprops or pitwood.
TABLE 3. - PITPROP IMPORTS, 1947 AND 1948
|
Country |
1947 |
1948 |
|
1,000 m³ ® |
||
|
Belgium |
360.0 |
249.0 |
|
France |
71.0 |
340.0 |
|
Germany: Bizone |
609.0 |
502.0 |
|
Hungary |
72.0 |
1 80.3 |
|
Italy |
3.5 |
7.2 |
|
Netherlands |
249.0 |
217.0 |
|
Poland |
60.0 |
- |
|
Saar |
2 480.0 |
2 650.0 |
|
Turkey |
19.8 |
98.1 |
|
United Kingdom |
2,872.0 |
2,432.0 |
|
TOTAL |
4,796.3 |
4,575.6 |
SOURCE: ECE Coal Committee
1 January to September only.
2 Pitwood receipts from abroad for coal and other mines
Plans call for increases in hard coal production of more than 8 percent over 1948 levels. If this comes about, total pitprop consumption in coal mines may approximate 15.2 million m³® or almost 17 percent more than in 1948.
According to figures submitted to the ECE Timber Committee during its fourth session in March 1949, anticipated supplies plus the favorable stock situation indicate that 1949 pitprop requirements will be covered.
The total coal mine pitprop requirements for 1950 are estimated at 16.5 million m³® and anticipated supplies (Table 2) to meet these requirements at 15.1 million m³®, leaving a deficit of 1.4 million m³®. This apparent deficit, although large, is not considered alarming. The estimates are very preliminary, and both supplying and importing countries are naturally cautious in making their forecasts. Domestic production may possibly exceed earlier estimates, and it is well known that certain quantities obtained from local resources frequently do not appear in official statistics. Moreover, North America and the U.S.S.R. could easily cover the deficit if circumstances permitted, and abstention from pulpwood purchases by pulp mills would release roundwood for pitprops.
The tendency of pitprop consuming countries is to restrict purchases abroad to those dimensions and qualities unobtainable at home. Suppliers are therefore obliged to meet more exacting requirements at a time when prices show a downward trend. Quality requirements for pulpwood are less strict, and the demand for pulpwood by those European countries with inadequate domestic resources but high paper-manufacturing capacity is likely to become more insistent. The traditional difference between pitprop and pulp: wood prices is consequently tending to lose its importance, particularly for the northern countries, and roundwood producers may be increasingly tempted to sell their timber as pulpwood.
Total available European sources of timber for pitprops and pulpwood will remain more or less unchanged so that any diversion of timber to pulpwood will generally be at the expense of pitprop production. In view of the emergence of Germany as a possible heavy importer of pulpwood and of pitprops, other importing countries may have to relax their specifications for softwood pitprops, or face the prospect of a diminished available supply. The situation will of course be quite different if additional pitprop supplies appear on the market from the U.S.S.R. or other sources, or if hardwoods or other substitutes are used for softwoods.
This question has received particular attention in France where special studies have been made. It is understood that the French coal mines in the North and Pas de Calais area at present use as much as 55 percent hardwood pitprops; in the middle and south of France the proportion used is about 10 percent. In the past, France was practically self-supporting with respect to pitprops but now must import quantities estimated at from 300,000 to 500,000 m³® yearly.
In spite of the successful use of hardwood pitprops in France, other countries do not seem enthusiastic in investigating the use of these pitprops in their mines. In some countries, particularly the Netherlands, the coal mines are strongly opposed to them. The future of hardwood pitprops is therefore uncertain and depends on the availability of softwood pitprops. Proper publicity regarding the safe use of hardwood pitprops, as well as purely economic reasons, such as their lower price, may, however, stimulate demand.
Durable steel pitprops although not very popular with miners, became of added interest in many countries as the prices of pitprops increased during the postwar years (prices have nearly doubled since 1945). Steel pitprops are relatively expensive, but the high recovery percentage makes them more economical in the long run. (In France the price of steel pitprops at about 6,000 francs apiece is equivalent to about one cubic meter of pitprops.) Even though steel pitprops are being used in increasing quantities in certain countries, the general feeling in the coal-producing countries is that this will not affect the general pitprop situation to any great extent. In fact in some countries the trend is now to substitute wood pitprops for steel pitprops, since wood pitprops are at the moment in more ample supply while steel is scarce and needed for manufactured products, mainly destined for export.
Finland and Sweden
Estimates made available to the ECE Timber Committee indicate that pitprop exports in 1949 are expected to amount to 1,100,000 m³ ® from Finland and 688,000 m³® from Sweden.
Exports from Finland will probably reach the export goals even though the picture presented to the ECE Timber Committee in December 1948 did not seem so favorable. One million cubic meters of pitprops have been contracted for 1949 shipments, divided among the United Kingdom (500,000), France (100,000), Turkey (100,000), Belgium (180,000) and the Netherlands (90,000).
Swedish pitprop export availabilities in 1949 have increased considerably over 1948 exports of 195,000 m³®, and contracts have already been reported for 648,000 m³® for 1949 delivery. The major share, 534,000 m³ ®, has been contracted by the United Kingdom with considerably smaller contracts for France and the Netherlands. It is believed that the sudden availability of pitprops is the result of the present unstable conditions on the Swedish pulp market as many wood pulp mills have reduced their pulpwood purchases.
Norway
Export availabilities for 1949 are 80,000 m³ ®. This amount may be increased as it is possible that the 1948/49 felling targets will be exceeded.
Germany (excluding the Saar)
A considerable portion of the pitprop requirements is obtained within the separate zones or by inter-zonal trade. The French zone is expected to supply 240 000 m³® to the Bizone. There are no definitive figures concerning the U.S.S.R. zone; however, the Bizone and Poland may each receive 100,000 m³ ® from this source. The Saar may receive 570,000 m³ ® and France 200,000 m³® from the French zone. Bizone exports were discontinued at the end of 1948.
TABLE 4. - PITPROP EXPORTS AND EXPORT AVAILABILITIES 1947-1950
|
Country |
1947 |
1948 |
1949 |
1950 |
|
|
1,000 m³ ® |
|||||
|
Austria |
43 |
62 |
60 |
60 |
|
|
Czechoslovakia |
33 |
140 |
2150 |
2150 |
|
|
Finland |
1,610 |
1,278 |
1,100 |
900 |
|
|
France |
1157 |
144 |
3100 |
100 |
|
|
Germany: |
|||||
|
|
Bizone |
553 |
79 |
- |
- |
|
|
French Zone |
427 |
539 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
|
|
Soviet Zone |
893 |
336 |
2 750 |
2 750 |
|
U.S.S.R. |
93 |
38 |
2 750 |
2 750 |
|
|
Ireland |
- |
- |
9 |
9 |
|
|
Luxembourg |
40 |
75 |
60 |
40 |
|
|
Norway |
96 |
78 |
80 |
80 |
|
|
Portugal |
122 |
160 |
125 |
125 |
|
|
Sweden |
194 |
195 |
688 |
400 |
|
|
Switzerland |
9 |
14 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
Yugoslavia |
- |
61 |
185 |
185 |
|
|
Other countries |
11 |
21 |
- |
- |
|
|
Canada |
870 |
958 |
700 |
800 |
|
|
TOTAL |
5,008 |
4,111 |
5,022 |
4,614 |
|
SOURCE: FAO/ECE Timber Committee.
- None.
Not available.
1 Figures of the ECE Coal Committee for receipts for coal and other mines from abroad.
2 Estimated.
3 Excluding 100,000 m³® carry-over from 1948.
France
Export availabilities for the United Kingdom in 1949 are reported to be 150,000 m³®. This represents traditional export from the Landes. There is also a traditional export of small quantities of pitprops to Belgium and to the Netherlands from the French border districts.
Central Europe
Yugoslavia may have available for export 185,000 m³® and Austria 60,000 m³®. Exports from Yugoslavia will probably be directed primarily to the United Kingdom and Austrian exports to Czechoslovakia. While no specific information is available concerning Czechoslovakia, the possibility of its entrance into the export market cannot be disregarded.
Portugal
Export availabilities estimated at 200,000 m³® will be directed to the United Kingdom, French North Africa, Italy, Spain, and Spanish Morocco.
U.S.S.R.
There have not been any large-scale exports during the postwar years. In 1949, exports to the Netherlands are expected to be 60,000 m³® and to the United Kingdom 150,000 m³®. These quantities may be increased. Exports in 1949 from the U.S.S.R. and the U.S.S.R. zone of Germany were estimated by the ECE Timber Committee at 750,000 m³®, of which 450,000 m³® were expected to go to Poland.
Canada
Contracts for shipments of pitprops to the United Kingdom in 1949 are reported to be 644,000 m³®, whereas Canadian export availabilities for 1949 have been estimated at from 700 000 to 825,000 m³ ®.
