The remarkable increase in world plywood production after the Second World War continued throughout 1951. Output, excluding that of the U.S.S.R., estimated at 3,140,000 m.³ in 1948 and about 3,580,000 m.³ in 1949, had reached some 4,770,000 m.³ in 1950 and as much as 5,560,000 m.³ in 1951, the year of a general boom in all forest industries (Table 1). In 1952, however, a slight fall in the output of the major plywood-producing regions was noticeable, their total production being tentatively estimated to be some 5,300,000 m.³ If all these figures are compared with the 2 million m.³ produced before the war the increase is striking, about two-and-a half times the output.
TABLE 1 - PLYWOOD PRODUCTION (coniferous and non-coniferous)
|
Reporting countries |
1950 |
1951 |
1952 |
|
1000m.3(rounded) |
|||
|
EUROPE |
1090 |
1360 |
(1200) |
|
Austria |
17 |
20 |
19 |
|
Belgium |
12 |
12 |
12 |
|
Denmark |
10 |
11 |
10 |
|
Finland |
223 |
314 |
233 |
|
France |
107 |
144 |
145 |
|
Germany, Western |
372 |
480 |
419 |
|
Italy |
110 |
140 |
140 |
|
Netherlands |
27 |
30 |
(26) |
|
Norway |
12 |
12 |
(12) |
|
Poland |
(47) |
... |
... |
|
Portugal |
22 |
25 |
... |
|
Sweden |
45 |
45 |
(45) |
|
Switzerland |
19 |
20 |
(10) |
|
United Kingdom |
40 |
39 |
29 |
|
Yugoslavia |
22 |
22 |
(22) |
|
U.S.S.R. |
¹81O |
... |
... |
|
NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA |
3320 |
3760 |
(3650) |
|
Canada |
286 |
369 |
(37O) |
|
United States |
23030 |
23390 |
(3300) |
|
SOUTH AMERICA |
100 |
120 |
(130) |
|
Argentina |
25 |
29 |
... |
|
Brazil |
59 |
67 |
... |
|
Chile |
10 |
12 |
... |
|
Surinam |
6 |
9 |
|
|
AFRICA |
10 |
12 |
... |
|
Belgian Congo |
38 |
38 |
... |
|
Gold Coast |
3,41 |
3.53 |
... |
|
Southern Rhodesia |
1 |
1 |
.. |
|
Asia |
170 |
265 |
(270) |
|
Ceylon |
4 |
2 |
... |
|
India |
3 |
4 |
... |
|
Japan |
149 |
233 |
... |
|
Philippines |
413 |
523 |
... |
|
PACIFIC AREA |
82 |
82 |
(80) |
|
Australia |
69 |
68 |
... |
|
New Zealand |
13 |
14 |
... |
|
TOTAL (excluding U.S.S.R.) |
4770 |
5560 |
(5300) |
1 Planned figure 2 Includes an estimate for hardwood plywood of 742,000 m.³ in 1951 and 660,000 m.3 in 1950. ³ Includes veneers. 4 Year 1950/51. 5 Year 1951/52. ( ) Estimated.... Not available.
This growth in plywood production has been due more to recovery or expansion in traditionally producing regions, notably in North America, in response to increasing demand, than to new developments of capacity in areas which had no important plywood industry before the war. Although efforts have been made to expand capacity or to establish new plywood industries in Africa, Latin America and Asia, the level of output there has remained rather low and has, in fact, had practically no statistical effect on the total world figures.
Table 1 shows that the United States alone accounted for some 64 and 61 percent of world production in 1950 and 1951 respectively, as computed from reports received by FAO for the Yearbook of Forest Products Statistics. The combined share of the United States and Canada in the same two years represented about 70 and 67 percent respectively of the reported world total. About 23 and 25 percent of the total was produced in Europe in 1950 and 1951, and the rest of the world produced the odd 7 percent.
Europe
It will also be seen from Table 1 that the output of plywood in Europe rose from 1950 to 1951 by some 25 percent, which, as already mentioned, was largely due to the general boom in 1951 for all forest products. But the output of producing countries of minor importance seems to have remained more or less unchanged, and the steep rise was in the four major producing countries: Finland, France, Western Germany and Italy. Towards the end of 1951, production in Europe as a whole began to fall as a result of a general decline in demand caused by high prices and fairly large stocks with consumers and thus increased stocks at most of the mills. Figures of output during 1952 already available for three of the above four countries show a drop of some 13 percent below that of 1951. The total plywood output in 1952 of European countries reporting to FAO may tentatively be estimated at some 1,200,000 m.³, as against 1,360,000 m.³ in 1951. But the decline in demand chiefly affected production in the principal exporting countries. In Finland, output in 1952 was 233,000 m.³ as against 314,000 m.³ a year earlier; in western Germany, the output fell from 480,000 m.³ in 1951 to 419,000m.³ in 1952. Output of the French plywood industries remained practically unchanged, being 144,600 m.³ in 1952 as against 144,000 m.³ the year before, and in Italy the plywood industries were reported to have maintained their production at 140,000 m.³ both in 1951 and 1952.
Trends in world productions of plywood
North America
In North America, the output of plywood reached an unprecedented volume in 1952. In the United States in 1952 it was m.³ as against 3,390,000 m.³ the previous year, or a rise of some 15 percent. In Canada, however, output seems to have remained fairly stable, being 370,300 m.³ in 1952 compared with 369,900 m.³ the previous year. The increase in plywood output in North America is believed to be due to the fact that building activity and modern design of housing construction maintained demand at a high level.
Latin America
Output of plywood in Latin America did not increase to any marked degree from 1949 to 1950 and rose only by some 11 percent in the boom year of 1951. A notable percentage increase took place in Surinam, where output in 1951 was some 50 percent higher than in 1950. In Brazil, the increase appears to have been close to 14 percent and in Chile 20 percent. Although no figures are available for production in 1952, it is believed that falling demand abroad may have affected the Brazilian plywood industries, but elsewhere in Latin America domestic demand is not likely to have been affected by the decline on international markets; on the contrary, it has shown signs of increasing.
Other regions
A most noteworthy increase in plywood output has been that of Japan, where it rose from 83,000 m.³ in 1948 to 147,000 m.³ in 1949 and 149,000 m.³ in 1950, reaching 223,000 m.³ in 1951. Although much of this increase went to exports, the main part was still utilized to meet domestic demand. In view of the great demand for building materials in the East, it seems reasonable to assume that the Japanese plywood industry will not have declined as steeply in 1952 as has been the case in Europe. In contrast to the rather modest increase in output of most other countries, that of the Philippines is worth mentioning, as it rose from 13,000 m.³ in 1950 to 23,000 m.³ in 1951. The expansion of plywood production on the Gold Coast of Africa, although not great in volume, nevertheless trebled between 1950 and 1951.
Exports
The trade boom in 1951 caused world exports of plywood to rise substantially. The volume reported to FAO, which in 1949 had been some 350,000 m.³ and in 1950, 330,000 m.³ rose in 1951 to 510,000 m.³ As may be seen from Table 2, this rise was chiefly due to increased exports by European countries; exports by Finland alone rose from 195,000 m.³ in 1950 to 278,000 m.³ in 1951. Of other European countries, France, Western Germany and Italy increased their exports substantially in percentage, although the increase by volume was much lower than that of Finland. Exports by other regions, with the exception of the Pacific area, also registered increases which, while in some cases being substantial in percentage, were less important by volume. Increases worthy of note took place in African exports, especially those from the Belgian Congo (1,000 m.³ in 1950 to 5,000 m.³ in 1951), and in exports from Japan, which rose from 16,000 m.³ in 1950 to 49,000 m.³ in 1951.
TABLE 2 - WORLD TRADE
(Coniferous and non-coniferous plywood), 1000 m.³ rounded
|
Reporting countries |
1950 |
1951 |
1952 |
|||
|
Imports |
Exports |
Imports |
Exports |
Imports |
Exports |
|
|
EUROPE |
(300) |
(250) |
(440) |
(380) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Austria |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Belgium-Luxemburg |
30 |
2 |
32 |
5 |
24 |
2 |
|
Denmark |
... |
... |
16 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
|
Finland |
* |
195 |
* |
278 |
* |
221 |
|
France |
* |
12 |
* |
24 |
1 |
11 |
|
Germany, Western |
16 |
14 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
6 |
|
Greece |
... |
- |
6 |
- |
6 |
- |
|
Ireland |
... |
- |
11 |
- |
3 |
- |
|
Italy |
1 |
2 |
* |
12 |
1 |
5 |
|
Netherlands |
30 |
3 |
40 |
4 |
18 |
4 |
|
Norway |
... |
... |
7 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
|
Sweden |
7 |
24 |
9 |
22 |
... |
... |
|
Switzerland |
... |
... |
3 |
* |
3 |
* |
|
United Kingdom |
183 |
1 |
304 |
1 |
255 |
1 |
|
Yugoslavia |
- |
.. |
- |
3 |
- |
1 |
|
NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA |
(40) |
(40) |
(50) |
(50) |
... |
... |
|
Canada |
1 |
32 |
3 |
42 |
8 |
43 |
|
United States. |
37 |
3 |
44 |
4 |
... |
... |
|
SOUTH AMERICA |
... |
(20) |
... |
(25) |
... |
... |
|
Brazil |
* |
11 |
* |
11 |
... |
... |
|
Chile |
- |
3 |
- |
5 |
... |
... |
|
Surinam |
- |
6 |
- |
9 |
... |
... |
|
AFRICA |
(40) |
(2) |
(40) |
(10) |
... |
... |
|
Algeria |
5 |
* |
6 |
* |
... |
... |
|
Belgian Congo. |
- |
1 |
- |
5 |
... |
... |
|
Egypt |
19 |
- |
22 |
- |
... |
... |
|
ASIA |
(20) |
(20) |
(20) |
(5o) |
... |
... |
|
Japan |
- |
16 |
- |
49 |
... |
... |
|
PACIFIC AREA |
(10) |
(*) |
(20) |
(*) |
... |
... |
|
Australia |
7 |
* |
20 |
* |
... |
... |
|
TOTAL |
(410) |
(330) |
(570) |
(510) |
... |
... |
( ) Estimated. ... Not available. * Less than half the unit. - Nil
In 1952, the general level of world exports seems to have declined steeply, although figures are available only for Europe and North America. The total exports of plywood by European countries fell by some 23 percent from 1951, the decline in exports outside Europe being particularly marked and reaching only some 70 percent of the 1951 shipments. Export totals from Canada and the United States, although less important in volume, rose by about 9 percent, but this increase was entirely due to trade between the two countries, as in fact exports to other regions declined by more than 60 percent. Of all the European countries, Finland was affected most severely since, being the largest exporter of plywood in the world, it is most sensitive to changes on world markets.
Judging by figures available for 1952, the total volume of world plywood exports in that year may be around 20 percent below the 1951 figure.
Imports
The world rise in trade between 1950 and 1951 was chiefly due to increased imports by European countries, which took 300,000 m.³ in 1950 and 440,000 m.³ in 1951, of which 24,000 and 52,000 m.³ respectively were from other regions. The United Kingdom imports, rising from 183,000 m.³ in 1950 to 304,000 m.³ in 1951, accounted for more than 75 percent of the total increase in world plywood imports. Imports from Eastern Europe by the Western European countries increased from some 60,000 m.³ in 1950 to about 100,000 m.³ in 1951. Imports by most countries in other regions remained more or less unchanged, but the aggregate of North America rose from 40,000 m.³ in 1950 to 50,000 m.³ in 1951 (8,000 and 18,000 m.³ respectively being imported from other regions) and those of the Pacific area from 10,000 m.³ in 1950 to 20,000 m.³ in 1951 (Table 2).
Inter-regional trade seems to have suffered most in 1952. Imports by Western European countries from Eastern Europe fell by some 20 percent. The drop in total imports reported by the European countries was chiefly due to a fall in the figures of the United Kingdom (255,200 m.³ in 1952, as against 303,900 m.³ in 1951). Actually, imports into the United Kingdom from Finland rose from 102,000 m.³ in 1951 to 127,000 m.³ in 1952, and from Canada from 14,200 m.³ to 14,400 m.³ Imports from the U.S.S.R. declined slightly from 71,500 m.³ to 61,400 m.³ and from other overseas countries fell from 28,600 m.³ to 24,200 m.³ As to the categories of plywood imported by the United Kingdom, imports of birch plywood were 162,000 m.³ in 1951 and 187,000 m.³ in 1952, whereas imports of other plywoods fell from 142,000 m.³ to only 68,500 m.³
In North America, a slight rise in total imports of plywood was registered up to the end of September 1952, 37,300 m.³ as against 34,700 m.³ in the corresponding period of 1951.
The world development of plywood prices has been interesting, as prices in different regions and countries have from time to time moved in quite opposite directions. For instance, prices in the United States rose rather steeply during 1950, while in Europe they fell fairly heavily; on the other hand in 1951 prices more or less stabilized in the United States and rose strongly in Europe. By the end of the third quarter of 1952, however, prices in the United States and in Europe seem to have reached almost the same level, as is shown in the graph. The changes in plywood prices, although considerable between 1950 and 1952, by no means followed the great fluctuations in the prices of other products. In fact, while the steepest rise registered for plywood prices was about 50 percent (Finnish average exports value f.o.b. for birch plywood) between the first quarter of 1951 and the end of the same year, after having been some 10 to 15 percent below the January 1950 level, prices of sawn softwood, particularly in Europe during the period 1950-1952, had increased as much as 100 percent and in some cases even more, and were never below the January 1951 level. Prices of wood pulp and pulp products had shown even greater changes, varying between 250 to 400 percent up and 40 to 60 percent down.
Movement of plywood prices. (January 1950 = 100)
It seems rather curious, therefore, that the demand for plywood was as much subject to consumer resistance as that which had made itself felt in regard to other forest products as a result of excessive prices in 1951. The present prices of plywood are much closer to the level of prices at the beginning of 1950 (they are, in fact, some 10 to 20 percent above) than those of forest products in general, which are still some 50 percent or more above the level of the beginning of 1950. In spite of the present relatively lower level of plywood prices, there has been no such noticeable strengthening in demand during the latter half of 1952 as has been apparent for other products, notably newsprint and sawn softwood. The explanation for this may lie partly in the increased competition from hard wallboards of all kinds, which seem during the course of 1951 to have become increasingly popular with consumers, and partly to the rapid growth of plywood industries, with which quality of output has not entirely kept pace.
Although the demand for plywood, particularly in Europe, seems at least temporarily to have declined more than that for other forest products, the market prospects are on the whole still satisfactory. A large part of the expansion of-world plywood capacity now being carried out is centered in regions where the utilization of the natural supplies of raw materials has not yet so far been sufficiently developed, and where local demand is unsatisfied and constantly growing. Even with the expanding output in these regions, there should be no immediate cause for anxiety over export markets for the main exporting countries, especially in Europe which has so far had the largest overseas trade. On the other hand, the present marketing difficulties experienced by exporters do indicate a possible danger of over-expansion in the capacity of industries which rely on overseas demand.
