FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 2000 MADAGASCAR 26

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MADAGASCAR

Area:
582 000 sq.km
Climate:
Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rainy season: October-March; tropical cyclones
Population:
14.78 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 260 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:
Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops:
Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year:
April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country in April/May 2000 found that three successive cyclones and tropical storm in February, March and April 2000, which devastated the North-eastern and Central East Coast areas of Madagascar, affected 1.14 million hectares with varying degrees of severity. About 155 000 hectares of cereals, of which almost 80 percent were under rice and the rest under maize and cassava, were totally lost to floods and high winds. The cyclones also caused serious damage to export crops such as vanilla, coffee and cloves, with 33 000 hectares lost. This will result in reduced exports of vanilla, coffee and cloves over the next 3 years, depending on the economic life of these plantation crops. Drought in the South Region and the central Lake Alaotra region has also sharply reduced agricultural production. The main crops affected by the drought are maize, cassava and sweet potatoes.

Overall, the Mission estimates production of rice (paddy) at 2.19 million tonnes, maize at 0.14 million tonnes and cassava at 2.08 million tonnes for the year 2000. This represents a decrease in production of 15 percent for rice, 22 percent for maize and 18 percent for cassava, compared to last year.

The overall food supply situation is expected to be tight in 2000/01 (April/March). Serious food shortages are anticipated in 17 communes of the traditionally food-deficit South Region in the coming months. The total cereal (rice, maize and wheat) requirements are expected to exceed the total cereal availability by about 518 000 tonnes. With anticipated commercial imports of about 426 000 tonnes and emergency food aid for the affected people estimated at 30 000 tonnes, there is uncovered deficit of 62 000 tonnes. International food assistance will be needed to cover this remaining gap.

Seeds of rice and maize are also urgently required for agricultural rehabilitation in the most affected areas. Food for work programmes could be used in the rehabilitation of the damaged irrigation facilities, roads and other infrastructure.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Previous five years average production 11 2 528 161 2 700
Previous five years average imports 73 63 6 142
2000/01 Domestic Availability 9 1 522 141 1 672
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 9 2 194 141 2 344
2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 9 1 492 141 1 642
Possible stock drawdown - 30 - 30
2000/01 Utilization 77 1 942 171 2 190
Food Use 76 1 823 153 2 052
of which: local purchase requirement - - 2 2
Non-food use 1 119 18 138
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - - -
2000/01 Import Requirement 68 420 30 518
Anticipated commercial imports 66 350 10 426
Food aid needs 2 70 20 92
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges 1 5 3 9
of which: Delivered 1 5 2 8
Donor-financed purchases - - 2 2
of which: for local use - - 2 2
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 5 120 10 135
Indexes        
2000 production as % of average:       87
2000/01 import requirement as % of average:       365


FAO/GIEWS - August 2000

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