FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2000 SOUTH AFRICA 41

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SOUTH AFRICA

Area:
1.22 million sq.km
Climate:
Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population:
45.28 million (1999 estimate); GNP per caput US$3 160 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics:
Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat
Marketing year:
May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
54 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Harvesting of the 2000 wheat crop is well advanced. Latest production forecast have been revised upwards to 1.9 million tonnes, 22 percent above the poor crop of last year. At this level, however, production is still below average mainly as a result of reduced plantings.

Planting of the 2000/01 maize crop is underway. Normal to above-normal rains in October, particularly in the maize belt, have favoured field operations so far. However, the area planted is expected to decline in response to low domestic prices. Early official forecast point to a decrease up to 25 percent from last year's level but this decline could be lower than anticipated reflecting increasing future prices.

<p>Final official estimates indicate an above-average 2000 maize crop of 10.2 million tonnes, 42 higher than in the previous year. Despite severe floods in parts, abundant rains in the main growing areas resulted in increased yields. Export availability is estimated at about 2 million tonnes. Reflecting the bumper crop, prices of maize have declined to their lowest level since 1996.

<p>Following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, the Government has declared several quarantine zones in an attempt to control the expansion of the disease.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 2 093 3 8 527 10 623
Normal Exports 631 486 544 1 661
2000/01 Domestic Availability 1 861 2 10 648 12 511
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 1 790 3 10 648 12 441
2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 1 790 2 10 648 12 440
Possible stock drawdown 71 - - 71
2000/01 Utilization 2 561 449 11 019 14 029
Food Use 2 439 399 4 531 7 369
of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
Non-food use 72 50 4 285 4 407
Exports or Re-exports 50 - 1 400 1 450
Possible stock build up - - 803 803
2000/01 Import Requirement 700 447 371 1 518
Anticipated commercial imports 700 447 371 1 518
Food aid needs - - - -
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges - - - -
of which: Delivered - - - -
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 60 10 112 183
Indexes        
2000 production as % of average:       117
2000/01 import requirement as % of average:       91

FAO/GIEWS - December 2000

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