FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2000 ZIMBABWE 48

ZIMBABWE

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvesting of the 2000 irrigated wheat crop is underway. Latest forecast points to a crop of 250 000 tonnes, one-quarter below the good level of last year. The decline in production reflects a reduction in the area planted due to agricultural disruption following the Government's programme to resettle over half the large-scale commercial farms, which entirely produce the wheat crop. However, despite the anticipated fall in production, import requirements in 2000/01 are likely to be lower than anticipated reflecting large carryover stocks due to increased imports in past months.

Planting of the 2001 main maize crop has started. Good and timely rains in the third dekad of October have provided adequate soil moisture for planting operations. However, prospects are gloomy reflecting an anticipated reduction in the area planted in the commercial sector, where farms designated for resettlement are facing difficulties in obtaining production loans from credit institutions. Planting reductions are also anticipated in the new settled farms due to lack of agricultural inputs and technical services. In general, a sharp increase in the price of fertilizers, seed and fuel will adversely affect the area planted. A reduced maize production in 2001 will result in large import requirements next year at the time the country experiences severe shortages of foreign exchange. The 2000 maize crop is officially estimated at 2.04 million tonnes, 34 percent higher than the reduced crop of last year and above the average level. This mainly reflects abundant rains during the growing season. As a result of the good harvest and large carryover stocks, no imports of maize are required in marketing year 2000/01 (May/April).

Despite an overall satisfactory food supply, the continued devaluation of the local currency couples with shortages of fuel has resulted in a sharp increase in prices of basic commodities. Prices of bread, sugar, cooking oil and maize meal further increased in October leading to food riots in the capital Harare and other cities in mid-October. Food access is becoming increasingly difficult for large sections of urban population, but also for those in rural areas who gathered a reduced harvest, as well as for about 220 000 agricultural workers who are losing their wages as a result of the resettlement of the commercial farms.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)